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The humiliating defeat of Trinamool Congress in the Assembly polls is seeing the party head for a split. It has also given rise to the role and future position of 29 MPs in the Lok Sabha. Senior TMC MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar triggered speculations when she wrote on X that “Do you think a four-time MP from a political family, who has stood beside Mamata Banerjee and fought against authoritarian systems for four decades, would think only of personal interests? This is actually a verdict against the failure of policy and governance.” Dastidar did not mention any individual or issue directly but her message was loud and clear. Dastidar, an influential figure within the Trinamool, has been a close associate of Mamata Banerjee. Until recently, she served as the party’s Chief Whip in the Lok Sabha. However, she was replaced in that role by Kalyan Banerjee, a development that many political analysts believe marked the beginning of growing distance between her and the party leadership. Subsequently, Dastidar publicly criticised political consultancy firm I-PAC, alleging that its activities had harmed the party. She later resigned from various organizational posts within the TMC. Political speculation intensified further when the Union government enhanced her security cover shortly after her resignations. According to sources, around 20 Trinamool MPs may hold a crucial meeting in the coming days. Reports suggest that a letter could subsequently be submitted to the Lok Sabha Speaker seeking changes in the parliamentary party leadership. Speculation is rife that Dastidar’s name could be proposed as an alternative to current parliamentary leader Abhishek Banerjee.
The election to the Maharashtra Legislative Council is becoming more and more intriguing with one sensational disclosure after another by rival political parties. As expected, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut lobbed the first salvo. He alleged that Rs 150 crore had been spent by the ruling Mahayuti alliance comprising the BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit). It was his angry reaction to the humiliating show put out by the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), of which his leader Uddhav Thackeray is a major policy maker. Raut was immediately ridiculed since Uddhav’s confidant Bal Mane had withdrawn his nomination without giving a faintest hint to his leader. Moreover, Mane has returned to the BJP, which he had left some years ago. In all, the Congress and Sena (UBT) have been finding it most embarrassing as the Mahayuti is set to win almost each of the 17 seats for which election is being held. Developments in some legislative council constituencies have made the opposition leadership speechless since those withdrawing nominations did not even bother to formally convey their decisions. In most cases, the leaders learnt from TV channels of their candidates running away from the contest. Interestingly, Raut has been challenged by the BJP to announce why he failed to field a candidate of his party from Nasik, the district of which the MP is party’s organizational in charge. Has Raut accepted money for not contesting, the BJP has asked. More skeletons are expected to tumble out of the cupboard over the next few days.
Veteran leader Sharad Pawar gave his consent and NCP (Ajit) candidate for the legislative council, Vikram Kakade’s election for the upper house became a mere formality. The reason stated to be instrumental was a telephone call Vikram’s father Sanjay, former BJP MP, had made to Pawar, urging him to clear the path for his son. Although from the rival faction, Pawar graciously gave a nod. Sanjay, it is learnt, had obliged Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party nearly 15 years ago in a local election. As Pawar is blessed with an elephant’s memory, he paid back the obligation by ensuring Vikram’s election unopposed. But there is one more connection with the Pawar family and this election. Vikram had ‘advanced’ Rs.10 crore to Parth Pawar, son of deceased deputy CM Ajit Pawar and Sunetra Pawar, who is occupying the deputy CM’s post now. Vikram has clarified that the payment was against the purchase of a plot of land, which was in the name of Ajit Pawar. In faraway Vidarbha, the BJP’s candidate Arun Lakhani was elected unopposed to the upper house since Maha Vikas Aghadi failed to challenge him. A successful businessman and an ardent RSS worker, Lakhani’s son is slated to marry NCP (SP) leader Supriya Sule’s daughter. The would-be couple and their parents recently called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to formally invite him for the wedding, the date for which is yet to be announced. While political party workers keep fighting on roads, no such bitter sentiment is seen in the upper echelons.
So far, Vedanta’s operations in Odisha remain completely unaffected by recent ongoing investigations, scrutiny with regard to FEMA probe, ED raid, search operations on the group’s founder Anil Agarwal after his conflict with Adani over the Jaypee deal. The Odisha state government in dealing with Anil Agarwal has kept its slate clear with regard to Vedanta’s local violations. Vedanta, it may be recalled, was penalized Rs 233.11 crore and Rs 71.16 crore for illegal water extraction and unauthorised hazardous fly ash dumping in Odisha state. Political observers say, “At the moment, Odisha government’s singular focus is ensuring Vedanta’s timely project completion of the project amidst continuous tribal complaints for encroaching on forest reserves. It may be recalled that Vedanta Group did throw a hat in the ring to acquire the debt-ridden Jaiprakash Associates. But the lenders ultimately favoured a lower bid from Adani Enterprises. Anil Agarwal tweeted about this development. This is why political analysts interpret the recent FEMA and ED probe as a veiled warning to Anil Agarwal not to cross swords with Adani Group. Vedanta Group is a global natural resources and technology conglomerate. Over the last four decades, founder-chairman Anil Agarwal transformed a small, failing scrap-metal business into one of the world’s leading diversified mining, metals, and hydrocarbons corporations.
Maharashtra’s ongoing scrutiny of beneficiaries under the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana (CM’s My Favorite Sister Scheme) reportedly identified nearly 80 lakh ineligible women who enjoyed monthly assistance of Rs 1,500 since the scheme’s launch in 2024. Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has ruled out recovering payouts already made to them. The government’s lenient approach towards women beneficiaries, however, will not extend to the 14,000 men who allegedly secured benefits under the women-centric welfare scheme through fraudulent declarations. Officials involved in the verification exercise indicated that these beneficiaries would face recovery proceedings and could also be exposed to criminal action. At Rs 1,500 per month, the payments made to the male beneficiaries are estimated at Rs 50 crore. Preliminary findings suggest that several applications contained discrepancies in Aadhaar-linked records, while some beneficiaries were identified as ‘male’ during KYC verification despite having submitted details portraying themselves as eligible women. The scrutiny process also reportedly uncovered over five lakh women government employees who availed the benefit despite their annual incomes exceeding the scheme’s eligibility threshold of Rs 2.5 lakh. A senior official associated with the verification drive recalled that in an earlier instance, an individual was jailed for submitting multiple applications and claiming financial assistance under government schemes despite being ineligible. Similar recommendations for recovery and punitive action are expected in cases involving deliberate misrepresentation by men. Political observers believe the decision not to recover funds from the 80 lakh ineligible women reflects both economic and electoral considerations. With rural Maharashtra continuing to experience financial stress, the government appears reluctant to reclaim benefits already disbursed, including non-deserving women, a move that...
The Congress has nominated party chief Mallikarjun Kharge and party spokesperson Pawan Khera who was known for taking on Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma from Karnataka. The party opted to give the sole Rajya Sabha seat from Madhya Pradesh to Meenakshi Natrajan. A committed no-nonsense Congress leader, she had impressed Rahul Gandhi with her simple lifestyle. Party sources said most of the Rajya Sabha picks were personally cleared by Rahul Gandhi. Former CM Digvijay Singh who retired as MP refused to seek another term and made it possible for Meenakshi Natrajan. The Congress has just three sitting MPs who are retiring and if the elections goes as per party strength, the party is likely to get seven lawmakers, provided the JMM offers the second seat which the I.N.D.I.A Bloc can win to Congress in Jharkhand. Besides, Pawan Khera, another person who handles media for the Congress, Pranav Jha is also being nominated to the Rajya Sabha from Jharkhand. The party also nominated Mansoor Ali Khan, son of former Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairman Rahman Khan from Karnataka. Meanwhile in the BJP, there was a bloodbath of sorts as incumbent Union ministers George Kurian and Ravneet Singh Bittu did not find their names in the list from Madhya Pradesh. While Bittu may still be contesting the forthcoming Punjab assembly elections, tears are not being shed for Kurian as he had lost in Kerala assembly elections. An old BJP hand, he was apparently seen as not endearing himself or the party to the community. Kurian was not liked very much by the community even though he handled minority affairs.
Former Tamil Nadu BJP president K Annamalai may have the satisfaction of dominating national media discussions for a day about his possible exit from the BJP. However, after camping in Delhi for three days and even spending his birthday (June 4) by holding out a resignation threat, one hears he has still not put in his resignation. His media antics were not well-received in the PMO. In fact, as news channels obsessed about his meetings with Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP chief Nitin Nabin, eyebrows were raised at the highest level at the kind of level a malcontent from South was allowed to manage media coverage in Delhi. It is precisely for this reason that the former IPS officer failed to secure even a birthday wish from PM Modi or Shah. When Annamalai explained his need to float new forum to mobilise youth in Tamil Nadu, Shah told him that there was no need for it. He was told that the party would always stand with him. It is being felt Annamalai’s talk of a separate morcha to take on the TVK under Vijay could all be an idea that is being pushed probably by the DMK. The DMK needs a credible, clean face to mobilise youth against CM Vijay. It is here that Annamalai fits the bill. Annamalai had extended his stay hoping to meet with PM Modi who was tied up with the visit of Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez. It is learnt the BJP did not bargain with Annamalai. A section of the RSS suggested that talks be held with him which is why Amit Shah and Nitin Nabin met with him. Meanwhile, BJP TN president Nainar Nagendran had fixed up a meeting with Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Nainar’s visit to Delhi was portrayed as if he was being summoned by party bosses at Annamalai’s behest.
Contrary to speculation, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), the new political party led by actor Vijay that has just come to power in Tamil Nadu, apparently is not bothered about getting a foothold in Delhi. That is why the party did not hesitate in allotting Rajya Sabha seat from TN to its coalition partner, the Congress party, ahead of the biennial elections scheduled for June 18. In a statement, the TVK announced that the seat – vacated by AIADMK leader C V Shanmugam that is set to be filled through the Rajya Sabha election has been allocated to the Congress as part of the seat-sharing arrangement. AICC Tamil Nadu In-charge Girish Chodankar had met CM Joseph Vijay earlier in the day. “I met the chief minister, and requested him that this seat should be allocated to us by them and then it will also help us in the Rajya Sabha,” he said. Chodankar feels the Congress has every reason to feel thrilled with TVK’s gesture as it will now have three Rajya Sabha MPs from the state. At present the Congress has former Finance Minister P Chidambaram and Christopher Tilak (AICC secretary) who was elected to the Rajya Sabha in March 2026 with the support of the DMK. Praveen Chakravarty, a close Rahul Gandhi aide, who TN CM Vijay publicly addressed as a friend for batting for TVK-Cong alliance, will be the other PC, who is most likely to get elected from the state. “Apparently, the basis for the Congress joining the TVK Govt was the scope for improving its presence in Parliament,” says a Congress source.
Vaibhav Sooryavanshi has made the big splash in Twenty20 cricket, but the corridors of power in the BCCI feel that the time has arrived to groom the left hander from Bihar and Rajasthan Royals for the 50-over World Cup and the World Twenty20. The 15-year-old put to sword some of the top notch fast bowlers like Jasprit Bumrah, Jofra Archer, Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc in the recent Tata-IPL-19. He is yet to get a call for the national Twenty20 team — it’s an event that will happen imminently. Maybe during India’s white ball series in Ireland and England in June-July. India will play two Twenty20 matches at Belfast and then five Twenty20 and three ODIs in England. He has not been picked in the team that will play the three home ODIs against Afghanistan, but vacancy could arise should Rohit Sharma and Hardik Pandya do not clear the fitness test. Sooryavanshi has not played in the UK where auditions could happen for the Men in Blue team’s preparation for the ICC Cricket World Cup 2027. The ICC would be happy to see Sooryavanshi being promoted as a big brand for the next two events — the 50-over World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia and the Twenty20 World Cup in Australia-New Zealand. With so much uncertainty about Suryakumar Yadav to last till 2028, there is a possibility of Sooryavanshi’s career receiving a big push in both white-ball formats. The rationale for the left-hander’s inclusion is based on the big question of whether such a fantastic talent can be wrapped in a cotton wool for a long time. India’s Twenty20 openers are Abhishek Sharma and Sanju Samson and it’s Rohit and Shubman Gill in ODI’s …but things could clear up soon for Sooryavanshi in both formats.
Political turbulence within the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has intensified in the aftermath of the West Bengal Assembly election results, with the party expelling two legislators amid a controversy over alleged forged signatures and growing speculation of internal dissent. MLAs Ritabrata Bandyopadhyay and Sandipan Saha were expelled after reports emerged that they had lodged a police complaint over an alleged signature forgery incident. Their expulsion has reduced the TMC’s strength in the West Bengal Assembly from 80 to 78 MLAs. Since the election results, several senior leaders have publicly expressed differences. Some of the party leaders including Mamata Banerjee, Abhishek Banerjee, Kalyan Banerjee had to face the ire of public anger; they were booed, heckled and names called. Now, speculations are rife about a possible split of the party. It is learnt that a significant number of legislators could leave the party and form a new outfit led by expelled MLAs, including Bandyopadhyay and Saha. Speculation intensified after a meeting convened by Didi reportedly had attendance from only 20 of the party’s 80 MLAs, leading to its cancellation. Observers believe any large-scale defection could alter the balance of power in the Assembly and challenge the TMC’s position as the principal opposition party. Comparisons are being drawn with Maharashtra, where the split in the Nationalist Congress Party saw the founder Sharad Pawar losing control. Likewise, a rebellion within Shiv Sena resulted in Uddhav Thackeray losing control of the party organisation and election symbols. Expelled TMC leader Bandyopadhyay says he is prepared to provide authorities with information regarding alleged corruption within the party and government. Addressing supporters through a Facebook Live session, Mamata accused the BJP of attempting to engineer defections.
The uneasy question among the top leadership of Trinamool Congress is: who would take up the mantle from the party supremo Mamata Banerjee. Significantly, after a long time, Didi was accompanied by Abhishek Banerjee who holds the position of national general secretary during her recent visit to New Delhi. He was also present with Mamata when she took stock of her party’s activities in the monsoon session and endorsed the joint opposition moves in Parliament, especially those against the BJP’s use of central agencies to raid and arrest opposition leaders. Incidentally, a section of senior leaders including Kalyan Banerjee had been vocal about Abhishek’s prominence in the party. He was criticized for both the Goa election and Tripura bypoll debacle, and also for trying to replicate the Diamond Harbour model, his Lok Sabha constituency. However, the opposing faction including Kalyan babu praised Abhishek stating that the young leader gave space and a patient hearing to all senior MPs and leaders. But, the message is loud and clear; in the run-up to the party’s Martyrs’ Day rally in Kolkata, posters put up across the state featured just two leaders — Didi and her nephew Abhishek. Furthermore, it’s Abhishek who’s now expanding the party in Tripura, Goa, Assam, and Meghalaya. Clearly, Abhishek is being projected as the natural successor of Mamata Banerjee, but it has been the BJP that made him a leader by constantly attacking him.
With Amit Shah exuding confidence in his recent trip to Odisha saying BJP will form the government in the state in 2024, questions are being raised if Biju Janata Dal supremo Naveen Patnaik is beatable by BJP in 2024? Political watchers dismiss Shah’s bravado saying “not possible during Naveen’s lifetime”. It’s difficult to defeat a leader like a performing chief minister like Naveen babu in 2024. He has never tasted defeat, as yet. Does BJP have one leader in the state who can match Patnaik’s stature? It is common knowledge that “Modi-Shah juggernaut isn’t all powerful enough to steamroll Patnaik’s huge popularity. This has been amply demonstrated by BJD in the panchayat and urban elections vis-a-vis BJP’s total washout in both instances. Here is the contradiction, while Modi-Patnaik politically are fighting each other at personal level they share a great equation. Given this scenario, Amit Shah has to tread carefully to ensure BJP leaders don’t attack Patnaik personally and at the same give cadres enough ammo that keeps them charged and hopeful that BJP will be in the saddle one day. For starters, the party has elevated Sunil Bansal to the National General Secretary position, in-charge of Odisha. He has been asked to replicate BJP’s UP victory in Odisha. Clearly, for BJP their task is cut out, to make a dent against a tall leader like Naveen babu whose popularity continues to be on the rise.
When Suman Bery, Vice Chairman of NITI Aayog called upon Odisha chief minister Biju Patnaik he was not really surprised when Patnaik reminded him of Odisha’s long standing demand of being accorded a special category status. But, what was unique this time was Patnaik’s tone — it was non-pleading. Naveen babu believes it is Odisha’s right to be given special category status as the state has been devastated by repeated cyclones. Ever since Biju Janata Dal split from BJP in 2009 Patnaik has been the lone crusader fighting for the special status without any success. What is new this time is Naveen’s request to the Centre for expanding railway infrastructure, extending banking facilities to rural pockets and providing telecommunication services in the remotest part of the state. Naveen knows that Odisha cannot qualify for a special category status which is presently restricted to North Eastern three hilly states by the Finance Commission. The message CM is trying to drive is asking the Centre to revisit/redefine special status criteria, so that less developed criteria suiting Odisha should be given special dispensation or the centre provides monetary equivalent of a special category status. Political observers say Patnaik has consistently supported Modi in all issues, and it is in Modi’s interest to reciprocate lest Patnaik joins chorus with the Opposition parties.
The Modi-Stalin bonhomie at the inaugural of the Chess Olympiad would not have gone unnoticed. The DMK and BJP may be daggers drawn in Tamil Nadu but the top brass of both parties are such pals in public that the signals can be confusing to the cadres. The good vibes between the leaders, despite the crosscurrents of Tamil pride versus Indian nationalism, may however lead to changes in political alignments. The DMK-Congress ties are already strained in the State. The local Congress honcho put out a statement criticising the police for selective action with regard to sticking of PM Narendra Modi’s images on images by the BJP on the hoardings and billboards promoting the chess event and the blackening of those images by DMK men. Knowing full well that Stalin is in charge of the Home Department and the police come directly under him, the Congress statement seems deliberate. The theory that the AIADMK is cosying up to Congress in Tamil Nadu in order to woo the minority voters in the next Assembly polls may be outlandish. The fact is anything is possible in politics, even in Tamil Nadu where DMK has been with the Congress much longer than in its ties with the NDA and BJP in occasional trysts for a share of capital power.
Former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray’s warning to the faction led by Eknath Shinde not to use Balasaheb Thackeray’s image has evoked sharp reactions from Shinde followers and the Bharatiya Janata party. “Is Balasaheb your copyright?” Uddhav has been asked. At interactions with Sena rank and file, Uddhav has been exhorting them to stay firmly with him so that the organization is rebuilt after the recent revolt. On his birthday on July 27, he told his detractors, “Don’t use Balasaheb’s image. I challenge you to get elected without using it.” The Shinde faction has taken strong exception to this provocation as its claim of being the ‘true’ Sena will be heard by the Supreme Court next week, beginning a long-drawn legal battle. The Shinde followers are countering by asking Uddhav, “Would Balasaheb have approved your decision to go with the Congress and the NCP? What moral right do you have to claim his legacy?” BJP leader Sudhir Mungantiwar said Uddhav had perhaps forgotten that his candidates in the last election had used Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s portrait on their hoardings along with that of Balasaheb. “If that was all right, what right does Uddhav have to tell others not to use Balasaheb’s image now?” he demanded to know. Mungantiwar retorted that without Modi’s image, the Sena then would not have won any seats.
Besides the Shiv Sena, its two allies, the Congress and the NCP, are feeling apprehensive since the BJP has turned its attention towards their influential leaders in different parts of the state. After debilitating the Sena by denting its legislative and parliamentary wings, the BJP feels it should not stop just there but try to weaken the opposition as much as possible. While a dozen Sena Lok Sabha members have already joined the faction of chief minister Eknath Shinde, it is whispered that two or three more are on their way out. If this happens, the faction led by Uddhav Thackeray will be left with only three LS MPs. Against this background, detractors of Thackeray point out that Uddhav did not find time to call on senior MP Gajanan Kirtikar, who has been recovering from a minor surgery at his Goregaon residence, which is just a few kilometres away from Matoshri. In stark contrast, Shinde made it a point to meet Kirtikar. Though the MP has not revealed his plans, his moves are monitored closely by both sides. BJP leaders have now turned their attention towards affluent pockets in western Maharashtra. On their radar are the sugar barons who are the mainstay of the Congress and the NCP in this belt.
A 90-minute tete a tete between Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadavnis and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) boss Raj Thackeray at the latter’s Shivaji Park residence in Mumbai is considered significant in view of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election due later this year. Fadanvis drove to Thackeray to ‘honour’ his earlier pronouncement that he would be meeting Raj soon. MNS was considered a formidable factor against the Shiv Sena of Uddhav Thackeray till the last civic election held five years ago. However, its performance was disappointing and hence was sidelined in Maharashtra politics. The installation of the Eknath Shinde-Fadanvis saffron alliance regime has changed most equations in the state overnight. The major among them is the BMC, which has been under Shiv Sena control since 1985. All attempts to wrest this body having the largest civic budget in the country away from the Sena have failed so far. To deal one more fatal blow to Uddhav, the BJP, the Eknath Shinde faction and MNS are in the process of reaching a pact that will take on the Sena of Uddhav. Raj’s decision to ‘postpone’ his public address a second time is viewed as confirmation of such an emerging understanding. Shinde, Fadanvis and Raj will sing the same tune from different platforms at the same time soon to sound the bugle, saffron insiders have indicated.
The BJP’s velvet gloves were off at the National Executive meet in Hyderabad. The message was “Look South for our next push”. No one was surprised by the new slogan, “Telangana first, TN next”. So is BJP working towards Opposition Mukt Bharat? Maybe! The Delhi-based journalist R Rajagopalan who has attended over 15 such political party executive meets in his long career says that the Hyderabad session left him in awe and admiration. Sensing its move, Telangana chief minister K Chandrasekhar Rao made his displeasure known by not receiving the PM Narendra Modi when he visited Telangana twice. “Telangana has several Eknath Shindes”, says BJP leader Bandi Sanjay in retaliation. The recent development in Maharashtra where two-thirds of Sena MLAs walked out to align with BJP and form the government could well be an eye-opener for KCR that BJP means business. In the neighboring Tamil Nadu the appointment of the Governor RN Ravi has made the MK Stalin-led DMK government very uncomfortable from Day One. It may be recalled that BJP has been trying hard to make inroads by appointing by former IPS officer K Annamalai as its party chief as its earlier experiment of wooing superstar Rajnikant failed. What perhaps could help BJP gain inroads in TN is the infighting within AIADMK. One thing is loud and clear that Telangana and TN are on BJP’s radar as it seems doable.
Presented with a fait accompli of a General Council meeting ratifying Edappadi Palaniswamy as the Interim General Secretary until elections are formally held in the AIADMK party, former CM and now former Coordinator O Panneerselvem will be exhausting all legal avenues before charting his future path. In seizing total control over the party, EPS also had OPS ejected from party membership saying he had been given enough opportunities to discuss issues and sort out differences. The only recourse available now for OPS would be to approach the courts with his claim that the entire GC meeting was illegal as he had not co-signed the notice convening the meeting. The courts did not take kindly to OPS seeking to stop the meeting and OPS didn’t attend the meeting either, preferring to go to the party HQ on Lloyds Road and camp there with his supporters. The BJP washed its hands of the AIADMK internecine tussle and will sit it out until it’s clear who is legally and officially in control of the party. OPS had no support from the top duo of BJP and is out in the political wilderness. He tried to play his cards too smartly, keeping a foot in the Sasikala camp while keeping channels open to the DMK leadership. OPS’ hold was on the treasury but he has lost that too.
The curious silence over the past fortnight of a normally strident voice has led to much speculation, especially in view of the impending Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election, which will take place after the monsoon. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray has hardly spoken about the current political developments though his party’s lone MLA supported the Shinde-Fadanvis alliance during the trust vote and election of the State Assembly Speaker. While stray comments emerge from the MNS camp, Thackeray himself has refrained from speaking. Raj underwent surgery recently and is convalescing. While a few prominent visitors have called on him at his Shivaji Park residence in the past few weeks, he himself has not made any public appearance nor addressed any meeting or the media. Otherwise a regular media feature, Raj is said to be biding his time to speak out. The BMC is called the Shiv Sena’s oxygen plant, being the richest civic body in the country. Hence there is little doubt that the Sena will try its best to maintain its stranglehold on it. However, with the changing political equations in Maharashtra, the Eknath Shinde faction and the BJP will spare no efforts to snatch it away. In such a scenario, the role of MNS and Raj Thackeray will be crucial. Whispers are heard that an announcement can be expected soon about this.
Are some members of the Shiv Sena breakaway group likely to reconsider their decision to follow Eknath Shinde out of the party? Guesswork is rife owing to some prominent rebel MLAs repeatedly declaring their loyalty and respect towards Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray. When BJP’s watchdog Kirit Somaiya described Uddhav as ‘mafia’ before television cameras, several Sena rebel MLAs took strong objection to the derogatory term and warned the former MP to mind his language. Buldhana MLA Sanjay Gaikwad has declared that many like him will walk out of the alliance with the BJP if Uddhav is attacked. Former ministers Gulabrao Patil and Deepak Kesarkar have declared that Uddhav will not be criticized by alliance members. Another rebel MLA, Suhas Kande, said he will lead a delegation of the rebels to the Thackeray residence, Matoshri. But Shinde’s trusted aide Kesarkar added a rider. He said, “If there is any talk for a patch up, our ally BJP, too, will be in the picture.” On the other hand, Uddhav, his son Aaditya and their spokesman Sanjay Raut have adopted a tough posture in response to the various pronouncements by the Sena rebels. The situation is further confounded as actress and Sena functionary Deepali Sayyad has appealed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take the initiative. “Uddhavji and chief minister Shinde will not defy your word,” she has said.
Union Minister of State for Tribal Affairs Tudu Bishweswar who hails from Mayurbhanj, Odisha is on overdrive to appease the tribal communities who constitute about 23% of Odisha population. This explains why as many as 87 Eklavya Model Residential School (EMRS), a co-ed school affiliated to CBSE have been sanctioned for Mayurbhanj which is highest for any state as well as district in India. Eklavya Schools are being set up in States/Union Territories with grants under Article 27 and are being implemented by the Ministry of Tribal Affairs. Every block with over 50% of Scheduled Tribe population having at least 20,000 tribal persons will now have EMRS and all backlog have to be completed by the extended target date 2025. Already, the parliamentary committee has expressed dismay over the slow pace of EMRS implementation work by the Tribal Ministry which for not being able to meet the original target of 452 Eklavya Schools by 2022 forcing the government to now extend the deadline to 2025. Tudu, BJP MP, is also under pressure to arrest the large number of tribal children who drop out of school — 55% at primary and nearly 71% at secondary level. It is clear the Modi government is on mission mode to uplift tribal communities and its action of nominating Droupadi Murmu also from Odisha as NDA’s presidential candidate indicates it means business.
On August 6 the country will have a new Vice President and there is a lot of speculation about who it will be. Though the BJP has not revealed its card, there is a strong rumour that it is most likely to be Union Minorities Minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi. A day ahead of his term ending in the Rajya Sabha, Naqvi quit as minister. He and JDU’s RCP Singh, who is Minister of Steel, also attended the Union Cabinet meeting where PM Narendra Modi praised both of them. Soon after the Cabinet, Naqvi visited BJP headquarters to meet with party chief JP Nadda. Initially, when Naqvi didn’t make it to the list of Rajya Sabha nominations it was felt that he would probably contest the Lok Sabha by-election from Rampur in Uttar Pradesh, his native State. However, after BJP fielded Ghanshyam Lodhi in SP stalwart Azam Khan’s stronghold, it was felt that Modi was likely to field the only Muslim minister in his cabinet in the vice-presidential elections. Another name doing the rounds is that of Karnataka Governor Thawarchand Gehlot. Seventy-four year Gehlot was leader of the Rajya Sabha before he moved as Karnataka Governor. Yet, what could still work in Naqvi’s favour is that he is much younger at 64 and has been very familiar with Rajya Sabha working.
Even though the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik have a good equation, that has not stopped BJP from trying to foist its flag in the state. So every time there is an election in the state, BJP puts all its might only to come a cropper. Patnaik is a revered leader who has transformed Odisha which is helping the common man. BJP’s goal was to emerge as an alternative to the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha by 2024. Now that seems to be impossible given the fact BJD swept the panchayat and urban elections a few months back thereby derailing BJPs ‘look east’ campaign. But BJP is not giving up easily. Its State President Sameer Mohanty, National Vice President Baijayant Panda and Odisha State BJP in-charge Vijaypal Singh Tomar have jointly prepared a 3-month strategy to make the monsoon session stormy. This plan will see BJP raise its decibel level on Mahanadi water dispute, power outages, unemployment, mineral theft, PMAY corruption, law and order, tender fixing including Naveen babu’s foreign trip. BJD seems unfazed since it is well-versed in handling opposition darts. One has to wait and watch whether BJP’s going for the jugular strategy yields dividends?
Former Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis sprung a surprise by announcing that Shiv Sena rebel leader Eknath Shinde would be the new Maharashtra CM. However, this is not the ‘large-heartedness’ of the BJP, as Shinde believes, but a masterstroke that the BJP has played to cut to size the stature of Shiv Sena founder late Bal Thackeray’s son Uddhav and grandson Aaditya in the party and the state politics. “With Shinde at the helm of affairs in the state as well in the party with the backing of 39 MLAs, the significance of Uddhav Thackeray in the party will drop significantly,” said Jay Prakash Singh, a senior political analyst. He added that the move will help Fadnavis and the BJP garner sympathy votes during the upcoming civic elections for letting go of the CM’s chair for the sake of Hindutva. Fadnavis will be very much in the driver’s seat as deputy CM and this is the wish of the party high command. Fadnavis has declared, “BJP is the single largest party in the legislature… I will ensure the smooth functioning of the government.” However, is causing embarrassment to the Thackerays the only reason why Fadnavis passed on the CM’s chair to Shinde? “Once bitten, twice shy!” Singh asserts. “Fadnavis wants to play safe as he doesn’t want to face a situation similar to that of 2019. NCP leader Ajit Pawar went back to the party fold less than 48 hours after rebelling. What’s the guarantee that the rebel Shiv Sena MLAs won’t return to the Thackeray camp in the coming days/months?”
When BJP announced the name of 64-year old Droupadi Murmu from Odisha as NDA’s Presidential candidate penny and jaws dropped. One of India’s best management minds Prof R Vaidyanathan said: “The choice of Droupadi Murmu is a massive tectonic shift in Indian polity. Mark my words, not many developed nations could have mustered the consensus for such a role model like Droupadi to adorn the Presidential chair”. Murmu, a capable administrator comes from the adivasi Santhals of Odisha with stints as a Minister and later, a Governor. A devoted Sanathana dharmi, the first thing Murmu did was to visit the Shiva temple. Undoubtedly, the polity and power shift is in favour of the OBC’s. The RSS, focusing on the importance of the Vanavasis, set up 600,000 vidyalayas in tribal areas to bring the tribals under the umbrella of education. So the choice of Murmu is a logical step for inclusion. Two significant irritants cast their shadow on the tribals of India –.the Naxalite threat and the Christian Missionary Conversion issue, parading under the euphemism, “Soul harvesting by planting the cross”. With successive government’s tough stand, the Naxal threat spread over 185 districts has now come down to 25. Murmu is bound to face and preside over more such irritants and challenges as our nation moves up to pole position.
BJP has woken up to the harsh reality of difficulty in dividing Bengal politically. This realisation saw BJP Chief JP Nadda telling partymen not to rake up the Bengal bifurcation issue in public. Some BJP leaders were pushing for a separate state/Union territory status for North Bengal from the state’s western plateau. This change of heart comes even as TMC postures on unity in political diversity making BJP top leader thinks it is inopportune time to be treading on the statehood landmine and getting perceived as dividers of Bengal. BJP’s MLA numbers are down owing to cross-overs to the TMC. Nine local BJP MLAs have written a letter to Nadda expressing displeasure over recent organisational changes in the state. More importantly, with the Presidential election in July, 2023 panchayat elections and 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s top brass won’t risk slicing Bengal politically for the time being. BJP has also realised that there is no common cause among political parties in North Bengal. “The splitting of Bengal is far from being over, BJP has pressed the pause button for now”, analysts say. So, for now the party is focussed on consolidation fearing its anti-Mamata and divide Bengal politics may boomerang.
A day after receiving flak for all out appeasement of Gulf countries and suspensions of BJP spokespersons Nupur Sharma and Naveen Kumar Jindal, over controversial statements regarding a religious entity, India is standing its ground while dealing with the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC). The Ministry of External Affairs on June 6 cited an OIC statement asking it to stop pursuing a “communal approach and show due respect to all faiths and religions”. “The Government of India (GoI) categorically rejects the OIC Secretariat’s unwarranted and narrow-minded comments. The GoI accords the highest respect to all religions,” the MEA statement stated adding that “offensive tweets and comments denigrating a religious personality were made by certain individuals. And that they do not, in any manner, reflect views of the GoI.” The MEA had earlier referred to Sharma and Jindal as fringe elements on June 5. BJP sources say Nupur, an Arun Jaitley protégé and Naveen Jindal were too ambitious and not in sync with the official party line; while perpetually competing to impress party bosses. During TV debates Nupur flaunted her skills in shaming fellow panellists. Only this time, her one upmanship blemished efforts by the PM to improve India’s ties with Gulf nations. The ‘y’ category security accorded to Sharma, however, remains unchanged particularly in view of threats issued to her.
BJP’s firebrand and outspoken Odisha MP Aparajita Sarangi, who is also BJP’s National Spokesperson, well known for her high decibel opposition pitch against BJD CM Naveen Patnaik missed out on a berth in the BJP’s newly constituted 17-member Odisha Core Committee. BJP President JP Nadda heads the committee. Only long serving senior BJP members with relevant experience apart from others the BJP thinks will add value and insight have been inducted. Some core committee members include: Baijayant Panda, Dr Sambit Patra, Jual Oram, Pratap Sarangi, Dharmendra Pradhan, Ashwini Vaishnaw, Biseswar Tudu, Suresh Pujari, Samir Mohanty and Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo. This Odisha Core committee has been formed to prepare for the 2024 general election. The purpose of this committee is to chalk out BJP’s blueprint for the state to win as many seats from Odisha in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Committee will sit together, think together and work together taking stock of progress made on a monthly basis. Clearly, BJP has understood the need to reinvent itself since the agenda of criticizing Naveen Patnaik and his party Biju Janata Dal BJD did not cut much ice with the people or even taken them anywhere.
After an all-party meeting when Bihar CM Nitish Kumar announced a caste-based survey in the state, he appeared a bit triumphant. He could not conceal his happiness that he had driven a wedge between the state BJP and the Centre on the issue. The Centre had expressed its inability to conduct a caste census after the experience of socio-economic survey of 2011 census. He had the satisfaction that Bihar BJP leaders were fully backing the caste survey. Bihar BJP chief Sanjay Jaiswal denied there was difference between the Centre and the state unit on the caste survey. “Let us get one thing clear: what the Bihar government is going to undertake is a caste survey, not a census. Census comes under the Seventh Schedule and that it falls within remit of the Centre. As for Caste survey, Bihar is not the only state to undertake such a survey. Telangana, Karnataka has already done it.” He pointed out that BJP’s support for the caste survey was incumbent on keeping out Rohingyas and Bangladeshi Muslims. Also keeping out certain Muslims from claiming OBC status. Politically, of course, it is seen that Nitish Kumar has pushed the caste survey idea because the Centre had introduced a quota for the economically weaker section. With the lines of social justice getting blurred among parties, the JDU has been desperately trying to push “contradictions” within the BJP and failing.
In a bold move, the BJP national leadership has decided not to accommodate BY Vijayendra, second son of former Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa, to the Karnataka Legislative Council for the upcoming June 3 Legislative Council elections. The BJP can win four of the seven seats of the Legislative Council for which MLAs will elect the members. The party has picked up former Deputy CM Laxman Savadi, secretary of the BJP state unit Hemalatha Nayak, president of BJP SC Morcha Chalavadi Narayanaswamy and S Keshavaprasad. Interestingly, Vijayendra’s name was recommended by the state BJP core committee. But central leaders decided against it. With one son BY Raghvendra, already a Lok Sabha MP, Yediyurappa himself a MLA, the BJP was not keen to give ticket to one more family member. It was felt Yediyurappa’s every wish had been accommodated – including his close aide Shobha Karandlaje being made a Union Minister. Of course the reason for denying MLC ticket to Vijayendra is because he had been exploring the possibility of setting up a breakaway political group – revisiting Karnataka Janata Paksha set up by his father during 2013 assembly polls. Reports of his meetings with Congress leader Siddaramiah have also emerged. With this action, the BJP has sought to grow out of Yediyurappa narrative. The party is betting on Bommai’s governance and Modi’s leadership.
Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik’s ambitious Ekamra Shetra Project which aims to transform the old temple town of Bhubaneswar into a world class tourist and pilgrimage centre at a cost of Rs 700 crore has run into rough weather. BJP is opposing the project while Congress is supporting it. The issue centres around the beautification initiative to make Bhubaneswar a world class heritage temple city based on 12th century Lingaraj Temple. Patnaik is keen to include Bhubaneswar’s ancient structures in UNESCO World Heritage sites. But it has already run into controversy over allegations that ancient monuments were destroyed during an excavation drive by the state government. ASI says they were never consulted and watchdog INTACH has alleged that many priceless structures were destroyed as there was no deployment of ground-penetrating radar analysis before commencement of work. Based on this feedback, the Union Home Ministry has blocked Odisha’s Lingaraj Temple Legislative Ordinance terming it unlawful as it falls under Ancient Monuments & Archaeological Sites and Remains Act (AMASR), 1958. The home ministry has pointed out that Patnaik government has already violated the AMASR Act around Lingaraj temple by building modern structures. The real bone of contention seems to be the appointment of Dr Santrupt Mishra, Group Director from the Aditya Birla Group to head the project instead of getting experts from INTACH. This move, many bureaucrats in Odisha believe, was needless.
When Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab CM Bhagwant Singh Mann picked Mandi for their roadshow on April 6 — the party’s first event in Himachal in the run-up to assembly elections later this year, they chose it because it was Chief Minister Jairam Thakur’s home ground. However, a week later AAP has announced it is dissolving its state unit. Delhi’s Health Minister Satyendra Jain, who is in charge of the Himachal, announced the dissolution after AAP state president Anoop Kesri joined the BJP before party president J P Nadda’s road show in Shimla. Kesri joined BJP as he found local leaders were sidelined. “We were toiling for AAP for the last 8 years but it neglected state party workers. There was disregard towards the people of Himachal Pradesh. During a rally in Mandi, no space was given to any leader from the state other than Delhi and Punjab CMs.” Kesri’s entry into the BJP was facilitated by I & B minister Anurag Thakur; he took along with him several AAP leaders. Congress leaders also acknowledge that the way BJP chief Nadda is camping in Shimla it is going to be a direct contest between BJP and the Congress. And there is no scope for a third player.
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s standing in the BJP is vastly enhanced, especially after he managed to win both the Rajya Sabha seats from the state for the NDA alliance, dealing a blow to attempts by Congress-led opposition parties to corner one seat. Home Minister Amit Shah was immensely happy with Sarma’s strategy to clinch the twin wins. It is significant that the Congress came a cropper despite tying up with AIUDF. Apparently five of Badruddin Ajmal MLAs cross-voted for the BJP while one Congress MLA cast an invalid vote. The Congress suspended Siddique Ahmed, its MLA from Karimganj South, from primary membership of the party for writing ‘one’ instead of ‘1’ on his ballot paper as per voting protocol. While Sarma ensured a smooth win for BJP’s Pabitra Margherita and coalition partner United Peoples Party Liberal (UPPL) candidate Rwngwra Narzary, the Congress camp was in tatters. In fact, because of the setback in Assam, Congress President Sonia Gandhi went into overdrive last week to ensure at least two Rajya Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu. She is also in touch with Sharad Pawar for two seats from Maharashtra. Sources said the Congress is looking to get one seat from Jharkhand notwithstanding the political upheaval there. Following this round of biennial elections, the BJP has notched up a tally of 101 seats in Rajya Sabha.
Biju Janata Dal’s (BJD) absolute sweep in the recently held rural panchayat polls and urban body elections raises serious doubts about BJP’s political future in Odisha. The misery for the BJP was apparent as it could not even win a single mayoral seat in the urban body polls, even as the initial buzz of support around Modi dissipated. Political analysts say BJP failed to match BJD’s organisational infrastructure. Besides, the towering leadership of Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik helped to sweep the elections through good governance that has transformed the state reaching people at the bottom of the pyramid. Die-hard BJP supporters feel the initial buzz around BJP’s consolidation is history now in the face of depleting BJP support base in the west Odisha electorate, which is slowly spreading to other parts of the state. Why did the BJP fail? Unlike the BJD, with Naveen babu as its face, the BJP state leadership in the state has no one to talk about. Also, the Central government’s development schemes could not overshadow Patnaik’s welfare schemes vis a vis and the positive image he has cultivated over the years. Modi’s constant praise of Patnaik for his spirit of co-operative federalism, his reforms and reluctance to criticise him openly also sent signals that Modi was not keen to fight Naveen babu.
Sharad Pawar is sitting pretty with the Shiv Sena and Congress parties. With BMC elections in Mumbai deferred for six months, an imminent face-off between erstwhile alliance partners in Maharashtra — BJP and Shiv Sena — stands temporarily averted. Maharashtra’s MVA government will fight the BMC polls, Thane civic elections and other pending local body elections in alliance, single-mindedly to defeat BJP, with Congress also fully on board now. A BJP leader says, “While the MVA alliance may prove a daunting challenge for us, the Sena will lose out on absolute power it enjoys in BMC to the Congress and NCP. They would have won and yet lost.” The NCP with a single digit representation in BMC will improve its tally on the back of the minority vote bank (that holds significant influence in 52 seats) it stirred up over L’affaire Nawab Malik while Congress will seek to ensure its current tally of 37 corporators rises to over 50. The BJP elected 83 party corporators in 2017 BMC polls when in direct contest against the Sena (85), even as Congress and NCP fought each other, and is still hoping to get over 70 corporators elected this time around. Meanwhile, the political slugfest has intensified with cases registered against MVA stakeholders and kin, just as shortpost.in had predicted, even as counter cases against BJP stakeholders have also been preferred.
Six-time Member of Parliament, senior DMK leader T R Baalu is personally inviting leaders across political parties for the grand opening ceremony of the party’s spanking new office and memorial centre, Anna Kalaignar Arivalayam, to be inaugurated by the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin on April 2, 2022. Eyebrows were raised when the 81-year-old Baalu went to invite Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Was he trying to cross sides or was DMK trying to buy peace with the Modi Government? Ever since RN Ravi’s appointment as Governor of TN, Stalin and he have been unable to see eye-to-eye on a number of governance issues, including NEET. A peeved Stalin was rallying opposition leaders to stop the BJP juggernaut in the 2024 general elections. But, with the BJP recently winning four out of the five state assembly elections in March, Stalin may have decided to recalibrate his strategy. This also comes in the backdrop of a strong whisper campaign around the flight of capital amounting to Rs 5000 crore to Dubai. The DMK machinery, on its part, while dismissing the rumour, is at pains to elucidate further on the four-day Dubai visit by Stalin along with wife Durga for the inauguration of the TN Pavilion and to woo investors into the state for an economic transformation.
Devendra Fadnavis has emerged as the singular face of the party in Maharashtra bolstered by political results in Goa achieved under his leadership. A well-placed source told shortpost.in, “A conscious decision was taken last week on the subject. The BJP leadership is keen to project Fadnavis as the sole face of BJP and has directed a cessation of distracting and divergent statements from other party stakeholders including Kirit Somaiya. All of them have been told to hold their horses for a while.” Somaiya, it may be recalled with the blessings of senior party leaders and, his inimitable style of announcing one scam a day, has been raising heat against Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) leaders predominantly Shiv Sena. Even other State BJP leaders have been asked to dial down even as Fadnavis has thrown the gauntlet at the MVA government with the single-minded focus on bringing it down. Even the MVA, which deferred the BMC and other local polls in Maharashtra to beyond May 2022, is facing rifts within its ranks. For one, home minister (NCP) Dilip Walse Patil was at pains explaining that Fadnavis was not summoned as accused but as witness by the BKC police and as an after-thought said that the police will visit Fadnavis’ residence to record his statement. With demand for jailed NCP minister Nawab Malik’s resignation rising, Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray met to damage control the issue.
There is a sense of awe that the BJP picked up all the eight assembly seats in Lakhimpur Kheri, Uttar Pradesh, with a comfortable majority. BJP sources said Lakhimpur Kheri which is barely 100 km away from Lucknow, couldn’t have voted differently from the rest of Awadh, a region hamstrung by poverty that boasts an eclectic mix of voters comprising poor Brahmins, Kurmis and other OBCs. What about anti-BJP sentiments whipped up in the aftermath of the four farmers mowed down by a car linked to Union Minister Ajay Mishra’s son? Sikh farmers belonging to the Terai region did protest against the farm laws. Apparently, the protest did not find peoples’ favour. Four lives were also lost in the immediate aftermath of the car encounter, through public lynching that rubbed off any public sympathy or BJP antipathy, over the incident. Another optic BJP overcame was of bodies floating across the Ganges during the Covid-19 pandemic that was played up to the hilt by the opposition combine. Fact being, shallow burials along the riverside is common practice among the poor of central and eastern UP. It was not the first time this occurred; it happened in 2015 and 2018 too. In Western UP, the BJP managed to win 46 of the 58 seats, even retaining tricky propositions like in Deoband because of the SP-RLD tie-up.
The monk who became the first UP chief minister to serve a full term and, win a fresh mandate bucking anti-incumbency has broken quite a few records even though he wasn’t elected in 2017 to the state assembly before being brought in as CM. It has been more than 40 years since any party was re-elected in UP and where, for the first time in 15 years an elected MLA will be heading the government. Yogi Adityanath proved to be the magical vote catcher along with his boss Narendra Modi. Incidentally, he also shattered the urban legend about Noida being the Waterloo of many UP CMs. The jinx had assumed such proportions that politicos began avoiding the city near the national capital like the plague. What Yogi may have proved is the fallacy of such urban legends that are mere coincidences and have no real relevance to actual events on the ground that are shaped by popular will. There are many such urban legends around the country, including one in Tamil Nadu where it is said that any CM visiting the Big Temple in Thanjavur would be out of power in the next election. This had taken such a hold on the imagination that even a diehard rationalist in M Karunanidhi, who visited the temple, entered through a side entrance. But that didn’t help him either.
Like Mamata Banerjee who led Trinamool Congress to a landslide victory in the West Bengal Assembly polls in 2021 but lost her seat, so too was the case of Uttarakhand Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami. PM Modi led BJP to victory with 47 seats but Dhami lost. Sources say Dhami would have won had he listened to party managers, refrained from Katima, he had represented for two terms. “We had advised Dhami to move out of Katima as another party functionary was working the assembly seat for the past five years and should have contested from there. We told Dhami to contest from Dehradun, a safe seat as a BJP candidate had passed away,” BJP leader RP Singh says. The Congress won Katima. Uttarakhand Congress leaders feel Dhami was done in by rivals like Ramesh Pokhriyal who funded his defeat. The Congress’s below par results is blamed on its divided house not having kept out turncoats. BJP turncoats like Harak Rawat joined the party at the eleventh hour, but people defeated his daughter-in-law Anukriti Gosain Rawat from Lansdowne. “The mood in Devbhoomi was against turncoats,” says Yashpal Arya, another BJP turncoat who won from Bajpur, but could not get son Sanjeev Arya elected from Nanital.
After the first two phases of elections in Uttar Pradesh concluded the BJP heaved a sigh of relief. Unlike the dire predictions of a decimation for the party in western UP, both phases went off smoothly for the party with internal surveys indicating a much better than expected performance too. The two phases also featured the Mainpuri and Karal assembly seats from where SP Chief Akhilesh Yadav contested. Notwithstanding, the scheduled rallies for the remainder of the UP poll tour, Modi switched his focus on the Punjab poll challenge, a well-placed source revealed. “The first two phases were consciously scheduled to cover the difficult political terrain where BJP feared anti-incumbency. This did not happen and the remainder phases encompass BJP strongholds. We may fall shy of the 2017 mark but are winning the UP polls,” the source said. Meanwhile, a trending poll slogan reverberated in the remaining phases, “Tumne Namak Khaya Hain, Namak Harami Na Karna” (You have had the salt of this government, do not betray us now). Simply put, in the remaining phases where BJP seeks to consolidate its traditional votebanks in Eastern and Northern UP, the free rations, DBT cash transfers and other benefits are being leveraged to hold sway over voters. The BJP denies it started the new trending story though terming it a people’s calling.
The bookmakers’ odds is one barometer to predict poll outcomes. Their dynamically fluid odds are to be taken under extreme caution, changing as they do by the minute depending on inputs or, even the sheer weight of money at stake. Without exit polls in the currently extended election schedules, bookies are the best guide to assess likely poll outcomes. Bookies had tipped BJP as favourites to retain Uttar Pradesh but, odds had indicated a sharp climb down for the ruling party from the 2017 high of 325 seats to a mere 150 wins. First phase polls (two rounds) in western UP, which had the party worried, did not fare as badly as earlier projections said and the BJP now expects to win 225-plus seats. The Punjab odds have changed and expect a closer fight, uncertain of a clear Congress majority, though the party will likely win the Uttarakhand polls clearly, say bookies. Going by the odds, Goa is also too close to call though bookies slightly favour BJP over the Congress while Manipur is yet to vote. The bookies’ assessment may not be crystal clear on sure winners but provide a good enough poll prediction.
The timing was too convenient for it to be a random decision. The moment the polls were over in Western UP where the Samajwadi Party is more popular, all curbs on poll rallies were gone. A BJP insider concedes that it was planned like this so as not to give any ground to SP, which might have been able to gather big crowds at rallies in its stronghold. It would have been bad optics for the ruling BJP if the opposition was seen displaying its popular appeal while the party struggled to get crowds for its star campaigner in Prime Minister Narendra Modi in eastern UP. The moment the vote got over in the first phase of the UP polls on February 10, the Election Commission convinced itself that Covid was no more a threat and that rallies and road shows were allowed in all the five states going to the polls. The BJP, with sufficient pull in the central and eastern parts of UP to be able to match SP in crowd-pulling rallies, was at it again with rallies and meetings taking over from virtual campaigns starring the PM and the UP CM. The party with the biggest funding for elections was back to dominate the scene with a pliant EC back in its comfort zone backing the ruling forces.
As the BJP and the Shiv Sena led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) square off for the BMC elections, the latter has announced an unrealistic high Rs 46,000 crore budget for Mumbai, the city that never sleeps. Ironically, in 2017 then BMC Commissioner Ajoy Mehta announced a mere Rs 25,000 crore outlay for Mumbai city and its suburban region, a Rs 12,000 crore reduction from the preceding year’s budget. When asked, Mehta had stated, “It was done to make spending more realistic. Earlier budget figures were much higher than what was actually spent. The capacity to spend was disproportionate to the allocated funds, even to the extent of our revenues (actually) generated. But the realistic budget from Mehta came a year after the BMC elections were held and the administration could politically afford to become realistic but, with elections for the BMC pie only days away now, not only unrealism but also, surrealism appears to be at play now with the whopping Rs 46,000 crore plan outlay that holds the promise of the sky for Mumbaikars and yet, may only fall short in terms of actual expenditure that takes place. A senior civic administrator told shortpost.in, “A lot of window dressing happens in an election year including double paper entries, due to the accounting format followed by the BMC, to make it look larger than life.”
Forty-six-year-old Chief Minister of Uttarakhand Pushkar Singh Dhami is not an incumbent his political opponents would envy. The picturesque state, home to the most revered Hindu Dhams, also suffers an electoral curse. No party has won consecutive terms, with anti-incumbency always playing spoiler. Dhami has been CM for barely six months, though he piloted BJP to victory in 2017. Will 2022 rid the state of the anti-incumbency curse? Yes, says Hyderabad-based psephologist JVC Sreeram. Uttarakhand has 70 seats and the winner must pocket 36. Congress leaders themselves acknowledge that Dhami has blunted the anti-incumbency factor for BJP. Another stark reason is that Harish Rawat, a mass leader of the Congress, was treated shabbily by the Gandhis and; made to change his seat though daughter Anupama was already accommodated. He is not being actively promoted, unlike in the past when ND Tiwari held sway in the state. The entry of AAP, the spoiler, usurping the Bahujan Samaj Party’s popularity has cut into the windfall edge Congress had six months ago. The BJP denied tickets to 23 sitting MLAs and is not worried about a possible revolt factor. According to Sreeram, “If Uttarakhand is lost, and Punjab too, Congress will face an existential crisis.” That’s when the party will implode. Is the G-23 ready for the tailspin?
The Tamil Nadu political landscape will wear a different look from now on with staunch allies of the post-Jayalalithaa era – AIADMK and BJP – going it alone. The break did not seem momentous because it occurred just before the urban local body polls but its implications are wide-ranging. The cadres of both parties wanted the split to happen with AIADMK party members wishing to test the theory that they would have done far better had they stood alone in the Assembly polls of April 2021 and the BJP cadre believing that they have greater support in certain urban areas that can be brought out only if they stood independent of AIADMK. An insider suggests that the ties will remain politically but will not stretch to elections anymore. This was the Jaya doctrine by which she chose to steer clear of the national BJP in 2016 despite her friendship with Narendra Modi. Her successors had no way of showing such independence as the party bigwigs needed New Delhi’s support to keep clear of any probes into their finances and the BJP needed all the votes they could garner in the Rajya Sabha where they don’t command a majority. The results of the local body polls this month will show where the AIADMK and the BJP stand in the minds of voters.
On the night of January 16, the BJP averted a repeat of the Swami Prasad Maurya moment in UP, being replicated in Uttarakhand by sacking a cabinet minister on the verge of turning rogue. In a pre-emptive strike, Harak Singh Rawat was let go after he hobnobbed with the Congress. He had blackmailed BJP, throwing tantrums over unreasonable demands for MLA seats. He wanted a ticket for daughter-in-law Anukriti from Lansdowne. Then, Rawat pushed the envelope at the late evening cabinet meeting on January 16 over pending approvals for a medical college in his constituency Kotdwar, even threatening to quit. Next, he held talks with Congress leader Pritam Singh and was to join the party on January 17 which the BJP got wind of. After being dumped by BJP, Rawat has cut a sorry figure with the Congress now disinclined to admit him right away. “Till a fortnight back, Harak Rawat was heaping insults on our leader Rahul Gandhi. Why should he get a free pass into the party?” asked a state Congress leader. Those backing former CM Harish Rawat feel the Congress should treat Harak just like Akhilesh Yadav side-lined Imran Masood, who dumped Congress to join the SP. Masood was denied a ticket from Nakur after SP admitted sitting BJP MLA Dharam Singh Saini who had defeated him in the 2017 polls.
Will Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who turns 50 this year, contest elections in the forthcoming assemblies? Conventionally, UP Chief Ministerial candidates are known to prefer the legislative council route, as Yogi himself did in 2017. Things may change in 2022, however, and there is a strong buzz that he will definitely seek to enter the UP Vidhan Sabha, although Yogi has left the decision to the BJP’s top leadership. Will he opt for Ayodhya or his home turf of Gorakhpur which elected him 5 times as Lok Sabha MP? Yogi could also choose Mathura, where efforts to reclaim Krishna’s janmabhoomi are ongoing. Party MP Harnath Singh Yadav even dashed off a letter to BJP chief JP Nadda proposing Yogi’s name from Mathura, even claiming it was the ‘wish of Lord Krishna, who had communicated with him (Yogi)’. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav countered Yogi’s Mathura plans claiming that Lord Krishna had visited him in a dream also and told him that SP would form the next government! A year younger than Yogi, Akhilesh is the sitting Lok Sabha MP from Azamgarh. Picking an assembly seat, however, won’t be easy after Yogi launched a no-holds-barred pitch of ‘Garv Se Kaho hum Hindu hai’ in Amethi. Akhilesh may not even find it easy going to contest from Yadav strong-holds like Kannauj and Mainpuri.
Fifty-eight-year-old Nana Patole, President, Maharashtra Pradesh Congress Committee, is a happy man. Not because his daughter found a suitable alliance and was married off with much fanfare and the ceremony being attended by the Governor Bhagatsingh Koshyari, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) colleagues Balasaheb Thorat (Congress) and Nawab Malik (NCP) among others but because he pulled off a coup of sorts recently. Sources say he got Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to withdraw their party candidate in the recently held state’s by-election to the Rajya Sabha necessitated by the demise of Congress MP Rajeev Satav. His earlier stint in BJP probably helped. He left BJP and joined Congress in 2017. Patole, who has earned brownie points with the Gandhis, now faces the real test on December 22, 2021, when BJP will expect a quid pro quo on the issue of 12 suspended BJP MLAs from the Maharashtra legislature. How Patole delivers remains to be seen. The issue of the 12 suspended BJP MLAs will figure majorly in the forthcoming state session and is likely to create fissures within the MVA constituents with Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena likely to be on opposite sides of the Congress while deciding the fate of the suspended BJP MLAs.
Cracks have surfaced in the Maharashtra BJP unit as the insiders claim that the Modi-Shah duo is displeased with the functioning of LoP Devendra Fadnavis and state unit chief Chandrakant Patil. Both were in Delhi last week and had separately met home minister Amit Shah. The senior leadership is not happy over state BJP’s failure to effectively project the Centre’s slew of programmes, including 100 crore vaccinations. They were also not happy over leaders issuing new deadlines for the collapse of the Shiv Sena-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government without giving any concrete plans. The message was loud and clear focus on further strengthening the party while communicating about the Centre’s achievements and MVA’s failures to the voters. Mere talk of the fall of the MVA government will not be acceptable. The leadership is also displeased over the neglect of old-timers and party loyalists while giving importance to a select few, especially those who have migrated from Congress and NCP. The appointment of Vinod Tawde, who was denied a ticket in the 2019 assembly election as the General Secretary, and nomination of former minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule for state council election, are important decisions taken by Delhi to checkmate Fadnavis, in particular, with a signal that he will have to change his style of functioning by taking everybody together.
Even though Trinamool Congress supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has decided not to visit regularly or call up 10 Janpath, she is keen to only meet NCP chief Sharad Pawar and seek his advice for the formation of a possible non-BJP front. She will meet Pawar on Wednesday (Dec 1) at the latter’s Silver Oak residence in Mumbai. Insiders from both parties said Pawar and Banerjee – with friends in various parties – can build up a front to take on BJP in the 2024 elections. However, Pawar has always been insisting that such a front won’t work without Congress. Pawar has already sent feelers to a few Congress leaders who have sent a positive signal but everything depends on the trio in the party – Sonia, Rahul, and Priyanka. Mamata is perturbed over Rahul not wishing her immediately after her record victory though Rahul later tweeted. They in turn are upset that TMC kept out of the opposition parties’ meet. It is learned that Pawar may organize a meeting between Mamata and Rahul at his 6 Janpath residence in New Delhi which is the new power centre for opposition unity. A senior Congress leader opines if Pawar is personally involved then Sonia may climb down. Interestingly, Maharashtra Chief Minister and Sena supremo Uddhav Thackeray has declined to meet Didi. Now people are reading between the lines.
After Rae Bareli Congress MLA Aditi Singh defected and joined the BJP last week, many wonder if her husband Angad Singh, who is a Congress MLA in Punjab (NawanShahr Assembly Seat) would be spared by the party leadership. It is quite possible that Congress may not renominate Angad as a party candidate. But then, Aditi and Angad may not be the only couple who would be at the receiving end of the party high command’s ire. Last week the Gandhis went all out to embarrass Perneet Kaur, Patiala Lok Sabha MP, and the wife of Capt Amarinder Singh. A show-cause notice was issued to her for publicly stating that she stands with her husband. The notice was issued by Punjab in-charge Harish Choudhary. Normally, notices to MPs are sent out by the AICC. Punjab Congress leaders are amused that the Gandhis should be more worried about Capt Amarinder Singh forming a party than take action against former minister and Ludhiana MP Manish Tewari who went all out to damage the UPA government with his book or Salman Khurshid who posed a lot of problems for the party with his book. In his book, Tewari laid bare how the UPA government had not acted strongly enough post 26/11.
Actor Kangana Ranaut’s remarks that India’s Independence from the British was bheekh and that “real freedom was won in May 2014” has hardly amused the BJP. Though she may have made politically incorrect noises about India winning freedom only after Narendra Modi came to power, the party is simply going nowhere near this pretty young woman from Himachal Pradesh. Maharashtra BJP chief Chandrakant Patil was the first to openly denounce the decorated actor’s views. With the Modi government all geared up to celebrate the 75th year of India’s Independence, one can hardly expect the party to endorse her views. “Kanagana is not a member of the BJP, why should we even be talking about her,” says a party spokesperson. This even as the Congress took to the streets, launching public protest against her. There is no doubt that the 34-year-old actor is a self-made person who has carved a niche for herself in the big, bad Mumbai film world. It speaks volumes about her grit and determination. As for her assessment about the freedom movement, guess it was not meant to be taken seriously.
Kangana Ranawat has earned the sobriquet stormy petrel of Indian Cinema. Time and again she has shown a near megalomaniac side, with strong delusions of her own grandeur. She is in the news for all the wrong reasons. Like the time when the combined vitriol of the Shiv Sena, Maharashtra Congress and the BMC led to demolishing illegally a part of her plush Mumbai office…Kangana called it “rape”! Kangana moved from B Team apparatchik to A team BJP mouthpiece, and then came the foot-in-the mouth moment. She declared loftily, deadpan and sensationally to a news channel, “What India got in 1947 was not Independence, it was Bheek from the Brits. We became truly Azaad only in 2014”. Many clutched their bellies LOL, but most came down strongly on this silliness. Varun Gandhi, the also ran of the clan, “It is an outrage and national betrayal.” But what historian Ramchandra Guha wrote is the most telling indictment of all such affront profanations…Winston Churchill, the Greatest Briton hated the Greatest Indian….Mahatma Gandhi! The cigar chomping bulldog pathologically loathed this loin cloth fakir marching up the steps of the Imperial Viceregal Palace, demanding Freedom for India. And he got it for us, without firing a single shot from his gun. Kangana Ranawat, don’t ever desecrate or denigrate the Father of Our Nation. He is above all party aspirations.
Historically, the governor’s role is considered a plum gratification for faithful services rendered to the party. Not many envied this gubernatorial position of ribbon-cutting, administering oath of offices and attending various ceremonies. But, things are fast changing with the BJP now drawing up an all new paradigm shift to the role of the Governor. A Dravidian wag now refers to them as “snooper cells” – a line favoured by non-NDA parties in some other states too. Is the new Tamil Nadu Governor RN Ravi sketching out a whole different strategy for TN? The 51st Governors’ meet just held at Chez Rashtrapathi, with the Veep, PM, and HM – all there to drive home the new role of Governors – raised eyebrows and hackles. Ramnath Kovind exhorted Governors to make fewer home town trips, try to learn from the good governance practices of other governors. Vice President Venkaiah Naidu appeared to be in campaign mode. He said, bring awareness to the people of every state about the Centre’s development and welfare programmes, and supervise the implementation. The PM went one step further, bring your feedback from states to Mann Ki Baath. TN governor Ravi with his impeccable intelligence background, has already set the cat among the pigeons. Considering the BJP’ long term plan to become the main opposition to the DMK, ruffled Dravidian egos are on edge.
Clearly, the star of the one-day BJP national executive was Tamil Nadu BJP President K Annamalai who got the opportunity to second the political resolution; UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was the mover of the resolution. Annamalai was not only handpicked for the task but Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself chose to introduce the 37-year-old former Karnataka cadre IPS officer to the audience. This after BJP President JP Nadda had already finished doing the honours. Speaking about Annamalai, Modi was quoted as saying that as an officer he had a bright future in his profession; in politics he could have also chosen regional parties like AIADMK or the DMK, but he zeroed in on the BJP for probity and clean politics. BJP leaders felt the way PM showered encomiums on Annamalai, it certainly seemed he was the chosen one. Under Annamalai’s stewardship since July this year, the state BJP has been making rapid strides. The BJP made gains in panchayat elections in nine districts in northern Tamil Nadu. Modi focused on looking at the silver lining – without making any reference to Himachal reverses. Annamalai’s success in a hostile environment like TN was worth showcasing to the party cadre. The spotlight was also on the decisive win in Telangana; and vote accretion in Badvel (SC) in AP, and in Ellenabad in Haryana amid farm law protests.
In Karnataka, the loss of Hangal Assembly seat to the Congress in the by-election should actually be seen as something that is of BJP’s own making. Here the party seems to be caught in a web of misery because of its principles. Refusing to cash in on sympathy factor and deciding against fielding close family members of deceased candidates, the BJP needlessly lost a seat to the Congress. It seems the party decided against fielding either daughter-in-law or son of the late six- term MLA CM Udasi whose death necessitated the by-election. Karnataka State BJP committee too had rooted for his son Shivkumar Udasi, a Lok Sabha MP from Haveri. Chief minister Basavaraj Bommai too wanted someone from the family. “If someone from the family had contested, BJP would have secured the seat by 20,000 votes,” admitted a BJP source. Chief Minister Bommai who camped for 10 days in Hangal to secure the seat was quite disappointed. The seat was narrowly lost. Close to his backyard, the loss of Lingayat-dominated seat seemed like a slap on his face. Of course, the only people who were happy were supporters of former Chief Minister BS Yedyurappa. They saw this as a good time to push for rehabilitation of his son BY Vijayendra by linking Hangal loss to unhappiness of Lingayats.
In Rajasthan, both the Congress and BJP have woken up to the stark reality of widespread conversions happening in the tribal regions. And both parties are blaming Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) for this conversion. BTP is a force to reckon with in the tribal dominated regions of Rajasthan including Dungarpur where it won four local panchayat elections recently. Besides, BTP has two MLAs, who supported the Congress government led by Ashok Gehlot. Is conversion a new thing? Not really. It has been thriving for decades now thanks to poverty and illiteracy. Currently, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are hot spots of conversion along with Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. In the last six months, these states have witnessed a spike in conversion with 80% of converts belonging to SC/ ST. The BJP, it is reliably learnt, plans to launch nationwide agitations against conversions. According to an Intelligence Officer, “The impetus (read funds) for conversions has witnessed a spike as India is considered a soft state. However, these missionary movements funded by radical Christian groups based out of the USA and Europe have consciously kept out of most Islamic nations as they fear reprisals from Islamic forces.” One such missionary activist from the USA, who visited India recently, told this correspondent when asked about the residual fallout of her activities (on escalating tensions between denominations of Indian citizens), “Well I have a lot of money and I can give it to anyone I choose, even you.”
Like corporate India, BJP too invests in future leaders. The latest news wafting from party HQ is that the Leader of Opposition in the Maharashtra state assembly, Devendra Fadnavis, is being groomed to move to the Centre. He is expected to fight the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from Pune which is currently represented by veteran BJP leader Girish Bapat. Fadnavis, who is currently a legislator from Nagpur south west constituency, recently bought a house in Pune. Pune is a safe bet as it is a Brahmin dominated constituency with a sizeable presence of RSS Parivar. Fadnavis has been recently told by the Central leadership to focus on Pune by increasing his visibility there. BJP has launched Samarth Booth Abhiyan with a resolve to retain power in the upcoming elections to the Pune Municipal Corporation. It is the party’s conscious decision to send Fadnavis to Pune to avoid any rumblings as Nagpur, which houses the RSS headquarters, is represented by veteran party leader Nitin Gadkari who will be the party’s nominee for the third successive term. Recently, BJP through a reputed organization conducted a survey for PMC elections in which it was revealed that the party’s popularity index was 54% in outer Pune which is growing exponentially.
Veteran NCP leader Ajit Pawar is known for his no nonsense style of functioning. He follows his uncle and the party supremo Sharad Pawar in day-to-day functioning, including attending the Mantralaya, and government and public functions. But of late there has been any number of attempts to tarnish his image with the Maharashtra BJP levelling corruption charges. Pawar preferred to keep a low profile despite being repeatedly targeted by BJP and especially by the former MP Kirit Somaiya over the sale of Jarandeshwar Sugar Mill situated in Satara district. Finally, Pawar decided to take the opposition head on by asking them to prove the allegations. Pawar, it is learnt, gave the list of 65 sugar and textile mills sold or given on lease to operate for 25 years following the High Court order. Now the ball is in BJP’s court. They have to respond not just to get the headlines in the newspapers and TV channels but also to take the case to its logical conclusion. It may be recalled that BJP had threatened to submit truckloads of proof in the alleged irrigation scam linking it to Ajit Pawar but till date has failed to prove it, says NCP insiders. Power tussle in Maharashtra is getting curiouser and curiouser.
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Editor’s Note: Short Post Is Here To Stay…
Time, they say, flies—and how true that is. Here we are celebrating our 5th Anniversary. Five years ago, when Covid-19 was wreaking havoc across the globe, I took a leap of faith and launched Short Post, India’s first website for Authentic Gossip. That was on January 31, 2021. I was convinced there was a clear gap in the market for gossip that was credible, sharp, and impactful—especially if told in just 250 words.
In this, I was fortunate. Scores of senior editors across diverse verticals bought into the idea and, in the process, gave wings to my dream. Quite honestly, Short Post could not have crossed these milestones without the unflinching support of its contributing editors. Like all start-ups, we have seen our share of ups and downs, but these editors have stood by us like a rock. I take this opportunity to doff my hat to them.
Thanks to their commitment, we have published close to 5,000 stories spanning politics, business, entertainment, and sports. I say this with pride: we made our mark as people who matter read us. “Small packs, big impact” truly captures the essence of Short Post.
We all know that Covid-19 has reset businesses worldwide, and the media sector is no exception. In the post-Covid era, investors have become more cautious and selective—and advertisers too. To compound matters, the entry of AI has disrupted the media landscape in equal measure. So far, we have managed to hold our ground, hopeful that some angel investors will take a shine to us.
What gives me confidence is this: AI cannot smell news—especially the gossipy kind. In other words, AI cannot churn out Short Post-type stories, no matter the prompt. That puts us in a safe zone. As someone rightly said, “AI is a co-pilot, not a pilot.”