Delimitation of state assembly constituencies executed for the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir dealt a severe blow to Bharatiya Janata Party’s Akhand Bharat perspective through skewed voter dynamics, erstwhile state’s incremental geo-political representation. Senior BJP leader, Mahendra Jain says, “New assembly constituencies were carved out prematurely using antiquated 2011 census data assessing population figures arriving at a faulty delimitation process.” Jain insists the delimitation exercise was flawed over outdated data relied upon to incrementally create 43 assembly constituencies (in Jammu) and 46 in Kashmir. Effectively hereon, portions of Jammu region (Pir Panjal) encompassing Poonch and Rajouri districts got partitioned away to political space now Anantnag seat in Kashmir occupies. Shia-dominated regions from Srinagar Parliamentary constituency were also given away to Baramulla constituency similarly, using 20-year-old statistics. The recent Lok Sabha elections from Baramulla saw independent candidate Abdul Rasheed Sheikh, currently incarcerated for espousing separatism for Kashmir, being elected to parliament as an independent candidate. An election department official says, “Census taking exercise in large states like Maharashtra can simply be accomplished within six months. J&K and Ladakh UTs’ census exercises will require far shorter timelines.” While the delimitation commission set up in March 2020 looked at the entire J&K UT as one political region, a more discriminated effort, armed with real time data may have prevented Jammu region shedding literal political space. The recent uptick in unheard of terrorism activity in Jammu region over the last couple of months has further antagonized the polity of the region. Will Jammu recover from back-to-back onslaughts by politics and new found terrorism? Only time will tell! For the moment innocent pilgrims are prime targets in Bharat’s paradise.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has given a clarion call to the BJP rank and file. “Do not wait for a directive, jump into the ring,” he told a BJP conclave held in Pune to strategize for the upcoming assembly election in the state. Always lauded for his measured words and restraint, Fadnavis has surprised even his disciple by ordering the party organisation to become aggressive. Repeatedly castigating the so-called ‘Fake Narrative’ used by the opposition to spread disinformation about the BJP for the parliamentary election, Fadnavis lamented the fact that even the BJP’s elected representatives were reticent on this count. “Our workers await directives. I now ask you to start batting in full swing,” he said amidst great cheers. Pune is the BJP stronghold as well as that of NCP leader Sharad Pawar. In this connection, he rationalised the alliance with rival NCP’s Ajit Pawar. Following the BJP’s poor show in the election, many party functionaries and even RSS mouthpieces have started questioning the justification for taking Ajit along. Fadnavis said on some occasions, it becomes necessary to retreat a couple of paces to attain the objective. The saffron party is known to operate according to the directives (Aadesh) received from the top. The fiat issued by Fadnavis is seen as a signal to the BJP workers to show initiative at local levels and deal accordingly with the opposition.

 All eyes are on the BJP government in Odisha as it presents its maiden Budget on July 25. BJP’s national president JP Nadda was on a two-day visit to review the party’s overall plan and budget allocation under the leadership of chief minister Mohan Charan Majhi. All signals indicate that BJP will bite the welfare bullet albeit with pragmatism. BJP’s immediate objective is simple. It wants to meet the aspirations of the people and keep its poll promises. It is understood that Odisha budget outlay for 2024-2025 is likely to be around Rs 3 lakh crore — an increase of around Rs 40,000-50,000 crore over BJD’s earlier budget, say sources. To push welfarism, Majhi’s government has already made provision in the budget. Majhi plans to increase MSP of paddy to Rs 3,100 per quintal to meet its Samrudhi Krushak Yojana plan. To empower women, BJP had promised to pay Rs 50,000 per woman through its ambitious Subhadra Yojana Scheme which will be launched some time in September to coincide with the PM’s birthday. Sources say to cover 2 crore women beneficiaries the state government would require a budget provision of Rs 80,000 crore and it is expecting help from the Centre to partially fund this scheme. It will implement Ayushman Bharat Arogya Yojana as well as replace BJD’s KALIA cash incentive scheme. However, BJP sees wisdom in Naveen Patnaik’s Aahar scheme, the subsidised cooked meal scheme of rice and dal in 2015 to provide meals at Rs 5. This will be continued. However, BJP’s Urban Development Minister Krushna Chandra Mahapatra hinted that the KALIA scheme will be renamed. Like all other BJP ruled states, the party is saying cheers to welfarism in Odisha too. 

Amidst reports of strained relations between the RSS and the ruling BJP, the Centre in a notification last week allowed government employees to take part in RSS’s activities. The notification rolled back a 1966 ban on government employees joining the RSS. The renewed push to the Sangh membership, coming a year ahead of Sangh’s centenary year in 2025 was seen by the Congress as a peace overture by the Modi Government – a gesture by top BJP leadership to pacify the Sangh ahead next round of assembly elections. Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge went on to charge that since the BJP couldn’t get a majority on its own and change the Constitution, it was getting RSS workers via back door to capture government machinery.  RSS leaders however felt the Centre’s action may have come a little too late. “The 1966 order should have been withdrawn in 2014 itself, when PM Modi had secured the mandate. That is if a RSS pracharak can be Prime Minister of the country, why should there be any restriction on government employees becoming members of the Sangh,” pointed out a senior former Sangh functionary. He also highlighted that long before the Centre withdrew the 1966 ban order, several BJP ruled states like Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh had made it possible for the employees to attend the RSS meetings. In its first reaction to the decision, the RSS said the Congress Government in the 60s had baselessly banned government employees from participating in the activities of a “constructive organization like the Sangh”, to cater to its political interests. “RSS has been continuously involved in the nation’s reconstruction and service to society for the last 99 years,” said Sunil Ambekar, RSS’s publicity chief and described the Modi government’s decision as appropriate.

The meeting of Chhagan Bhujbal with his ex-mentor Sharad Pawar, has set the tongues wagging about the formation of a third front in the state. The presence of the Uddhav Thackeray aide Milind Narvekar in the meeting also meant that the Shiv Sena chief too has been kept in the loop about developments. Bhujbal, who heads the Samata Parishad, an Other Backward Class (OBC) platform, has been talking strongly against reservations being granted for the blood relatives of the Maratha community. While Bhujbal is unlikely to join hands with the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), there is a buzz about senior Pawar pushing Bhujbal to put up a fight as a separate entity. Bhujbal could prove to be the strong counterfoil against the BJP by attracting the strong OBC vote bank, the mainstay of the BJP. Bhujbal who is part of the Ajit Pawar faction of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is increasingly feeling cornered within the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. Ajit Pawar is also under pressure following a campaign launched against him by the BJP labelling him as a liability in their alliance. Ajit Pawar’s recent strong stance of visiting Vishalgad fort personally and offering monetary compensation to those whose structures were demolished, mainly from the minority community, is being viewed as an independent step in that direction. This front led by Ajit Pawar, expected to fight polls on a secular plank, is expected to attract a lot of rebels including from the BJP. There is a strong buzz that the party might change almost 78 of its 105 legislators including many of the established faces in the state election.

AIADMK chief and former Tamil Nadu chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) is a troubled man after the rout of his party in the Lok Sabha election. His stubborn resolve to “no alliance” with BJP is being blamed by many of his apparatchiks, and with the imminent run up to the 2026 Assembly elections, EPS is now tailgated and pressurised to take back the prodigals O Panneerselvam and VK Sasikala (Chinnamma). A chintan baithak held for brainstorming brought this demand to the fore. According to OS Manian, former party minister, the most crucial strategy is to knit a strong alliance under the AIADMK leadership like the DMK alliance. Leaks of unhappiness from VCK and Marxist Communist in the DMK combine are evident …why not break this bond? The Muukkulathor community in the southern districts form a big block of voters and they think Sasikala with 33 years of association with J Jayalalithaa will revive the charisma. OPS surprisingly won 3 lakh votes in his alliance perch with the BJP. So voices are now vehement about uniting the party to its old glory. EPS has a strong “No” to OPS but is silent on Chinammaa’s entry. With such overpowering arguments for and against restoring the status quo ante, no wonder EPS is confused and confounded. Sasikala who had announced in 2021 she was taking a political Sanyas has suddenly abandoned her sanyasi garb, put on her political makeup and announced a tour of TN in the holy month of Aadi.

A significant rift within the Bengal BJP has surfaced, highlighted by recent statements from top party functionaries during the ongoing assessment of the Lok Sabha and Assembly bypoll election results in West Bengal. Union Minister and Bengal BJP President, Sukanta Majumdar, advised party workers against relying on actions by the CBI and ED to secure election victories. Instead, he urged them to focus on strengthening the party organization. This remark is widely interpreted as an indirect jibe at Suvendu Adhikari, BJP’s Leader of the Opposition for referencing dates of central agency raids against TMC leaders. This exchange has further fuelled tensions within the party, with Adhikari controversially suggesting that the BJP should abandon Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s inclusive slogan, “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Vishwas, Sabka Prayas,” and do away with its minority wing. He proposed a new slogan: “Jo humare saath, hum unke saath.” Majumdar quickly distanced the party from Adhikari’s statement, labelling it as a personal view. Under pressure from the BJP high command in Delhi, Adhikari later issued a social media statement claiming his comments were taken out of context. The BJP’s failure to meet its target of 25 seats in the recent Lok Sabha polls, securing only 12 compared to 18 in 2019, and losing three of its four seats in the Assembly bypolls, reducing its tally from 77 to 71, has intensified internal blame-game. Political observers see these exchanges as indicative of deepening internal conflicts within the state BJP leadership.

  Why the high profile Prasad Lad did not file a nomination for the election to the post of president of the Mumbai Cricket Association (MCA) remains a mystery. The 53-year-old MLC of the BJP, who could pull strings with the state deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, announced that he would “100 %” file nomination, but according to the grapevine, was stopped from “entering the fray” upon instructions from the party bosses in New Delhi. What gives credence to this development is that another BJP big shot, Ashish Shelar — the Bandra boy is the president of Mumbai BJP — had already named the MCA vice-president Sanjay Naik as a potential successor to Amol Kale, who passed away in New York on June 10. Shelar pointed out at Kale’s condolence meeting that Sanjay had sportingly withdrawn in favour of Kale in the MCA election of October 2022. With Kale — who owed his position in the MCA to Fadnavis — at the helm, Lad could not have considered seriously engaging with the association. Lad’s backtracking will likely see the incumbent secretary, Ajinkya Naik, lock horns with the incumbent vice-president, Sanjay. Looks like they are daggers drawn and ready for the big fight!  Should there be no withdrawal on July 16, the election will occur on July 23. The loser will retain his position, though (as secretary or vice-president), so both could get a toe-hold some 15 months before next year’s election to the full Apex Council. Lad may throw his hat in the ring next year if the BJP-Shiv Sena of Eknath Shinde and NCP of Ajit Pawar win the assembly elections in October-November.

Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin is basking in the success of his party candidate in the bypoll in Vikravandi, which came despite the government facing the heat in the aftermath of hooch deaths near the constituency. He knew it was important to get this endorsement of Dravidian rule because the ruling DMK was up against the candidate from the PMK that was part of BJP+ and testing the waters in a virtual straight contest in the absence of AIADMK. From the voting counts of 2021 and 2024 it was clear that the AIADMK cadre chose to vote for DMK rather than PMK, which vote would have been taken as one for the BJP that has been desperately seeking a break in the state. While the PMK got 32,198 votes in the Vikravandi segment in the Lok Sabha polls this year, its candidate got 56,026 votes in the assembly bypoll. While that could be taken as an indicator of the current mood and the dynamics of a straight contest, DMK’s Anniyur Siva got 1.25 lakh votes, a big swing from when the DMK won the seat only by a margin of 9,500 in 2021. AIADMK voters have chosen to go against its former ally BJP, now a bitter rival in 3-way poll politics in Tamil Nadu. The anticipated big breakthrough for BJP in the south, specifically Tamil Nadu, may take a lot more time to come.

The Odisha Governor Raghubir Das is making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Reportedly, his son Lalit Kumar beat Raj Bhavan staffer Baikuntha Pradhan black and blue on July 7.  The trigger apparently was Pradhan, Assistant Section Officer at Raj Bhavan, sent a Maruti car to fetch the Governor’s son from Puri Railway station. This enraged Lalit Kumar as he was expecting a luxury car. Feeling slighted the Governor’s son and his friends slapped and kicked the Raj Bhavan staffer. Looks like the VVIP culture and sense of entitlement seems to be endemic across political parties. The explanation given by Pradhan for sending a small car is that there was no other vehicles available as the President of India Droupadi Murmu was officially visiting Raj Bhavan and all vehicles were pressed into her service. Pradhan has filed a formal complaint with the Governor’s Principal Secretary while his wife Sayoji has filed a complaint at Sea Beach police station at Puri seeking justice for her husband. The Opposition parties — BJD and Congress – is not letting go of this opportunity to embarrass the BJP ruled state. It’s seeking action against the Governor’s son.

With BJP firmly in the driver’s seat in Odisha now all eyes are on the chief minister Mohan Charan Majhi to deliver the poll promise. Doubting Thomases are already asking whether he can transform Odisha, create over 3.5 lakh new jobs, attract investments in the industrial and agriculture sectors? The world will get a whiff of his roadmap when Majihi presents the state’s budget on July 24.  So far, Majhi has successfully opened up the four gates of Sri Jagannath Temple besides creating a corpus fund of Rs 500 crore for safety, security and beautification of the iconic temple. Majhi’s cabinet has also decided to formulate a policy for farmers within 100 days to increase MSP of paddy to Rs 3,100 per quintal. Sources say the chief minister faces huge challenges from providing drinking water, to quality school, to filling teachers’ posts lying vacant to scant irrigation facilities. Meanwhile, the new government is already facing criticism for announcing two big ticket projects without doing feasibility studies. Well known political commentator Ruben Banerjee has questioned the viability of such projects. In the case of Subhadra Jojana (earlier Mission Shakti) the state will spend Rs 50,000 crore to cover one crore women who will get a voucher of Rs 50,000 in two years. In the case of Bhubaneswar Metro Rail project, the government plans to invest Rs 6,000 crore. And this project will run into losses, says Banerjee. He is just over a month into his new role and it is unfair to compare him with the former legendary chief minister Naveen Patnaik who ran Odisha for over two decades. 

Assembly by-elections are usually won by the party in power. That is why it came as a surprise for the BJP that it failed to retain Badrinath assembly seat and was defeated in Manglaur in Uttarakhand by a margin of 422 votes. While the Congress has been claiming victory in Badrinath as a natural corollary to INDIA Bloc win in Faizabad Lok Sabha seat that hosts Ayodhya and the Ram Mandir, the BJP may have much to mull about its performance.  Defeat of BJP candidate Rajendra Singh Bhandari in Badrinath assembly seat may not be so much a comment on chief minister Pushkar Singh Dhami but it could still be an eye-opener for the party. The seat fell vacant as Bhandari had quit the Congress as an MLA during 2024 Lok Sabha polls. He joined the BJP supporting its Garhwal Lok Sabha candidate Anil Baluni. The BJP had fielded him in the by-election hoping his connection with local public would carry him through. What the party did not factor in was lack of enthusiasm among its cadres to the Congress turncoat. “More than BJP cadres letting Bhandari down, Badrinath seat was mainly lost because there was simmering anger among residents of Joshimath over delay in resettlement and relocating them,” pointed out senior Congress leader Prakash Joshi. This was an area which has always given BJP the lead. Joshimath has been declared a landslide-subsidence zone since 2022 and people still have to deal with it. The second seat Manglaur had always seen a proxy battle between the Congress and the BSP.  Congress leader Jairam Ramesh however insisted that the Uttarakhand results “reflect the changing political climate in the country.”

After four decades, Ratna Bhandar, the fabulous treasury of Puri’s famed Sri Jagannath Temple will be opened. It was BJP’s poll promise. According to the rules and practices, gold, silver, jewels etc offered to Sri Jagannath Mahaprabhu are to be stored in this Ratna Bhandar. This fabulous Treasury of the Jagannath Temple has been enriched by the contribution and donations offered by the devotees from all over the world.  The decision to open the treasure trove has been taken by the 16-member Ratna Bhandar Committee headed by Justice Biswanath Rath. The previous Biju Janata Dal government headed by Naveen Patnaik has been dragging its feet to open Lord Jagannath’s treasure trove saying its original keys were lost. During the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections campaign, the BJP leaders including PM Narendra Modi had made Ratna Bhandar inventory and missing keys a major poll issue.  The Ratna Bhandar committee has prepared a draft SOP of how the inspection of the inventory will be conducted. A source from the committee said that “The audit process will be detailed and lengthy” since it was last audited in 1978 when Janata Party’s Nilamani Routroy was Odisha CM. The auditing of Ratna Bhandar will not clash with normal darshan of the devotees.  Experts have been roped in to classify the jewellery and give its valuation. And this report will be made public as per BJP’s poll promise.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde is emerging as an independent leader which even the might of the BJP has acceded to. Soon after Shinde assumed power two years back on June 30, 2022, it was largely believed that the Shinde’s faction of the Shiv Sena would eventually be made to merge with the BJP and the name and symbol would be wiped out. However, far from being wiped out, Shinde has kept the Sena flag so strong that the BJP has officially announced that Shinde would be leading the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance into the polls. Meanwhile, both his deputies — Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar — are busy struggling to retain their base within their own parties as they face power struggles from within. Fadnavis’ stature has witnessed sharp climb down post-Lok Sabha debacle while Ajit Pawar support base is being debilitated by an astute Sharad Pawar. The Manoj Jarange Patil-led Maratha agitation has further consolidated his position; any attempt to dislodge this Maratha CM would not be acceptable to the Maratha community. The BJP which suffered strong backlash from the Maratha community in the Lok Sabha poll would not want to antagonise Marathas at this stage. Shinde is also working on crafting his own individual brand. His strategy of tagging chief minister to the monthly stipend for women scheme — Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana — has resonated well with rural women who are flocking to government offices in large numbers. He also got the winning Indian Cricket team to visit the Maharashtra assembly, the posters for which bore the CM’s face along with his two deputies, rather than the faces of the popular cricketers.

West Bengal BJP has begun to feel the burden of having a former bureaucrat CV Ananda Bose in Raj Bhavan. He poses no problem for the TMC regime but remains out of bounds for them. Bengal BJP leaders find that they are never able to access him. Half the time, much harassed Bose is always catching a flight to Delhi to fill the ears of central leadership. They feel Kolkata Raj Bhavan should have a politically savvy governor like Kerala Governor Arif Mohammed Khan or Tamil Nadu Governor RN Ravi who keeps local governments on toes.  Party sources feel with assembly elections in 2026, there must be an effective, political governor who will be able to keep chief minister Mamata Banerjee on her toes. Instead, they find Governor Bose is embroiled and immersed in fighting his own personal battles.  Two years after he took charge as governor, Mamata pinned him down with one of the Raj Bhavan staff alleging inappropriate conduct in May 2024. The TMC supremo who is buffeted by corruption allegations and scams, tried using allegations made by a contractual woman employee of Raj Bhavan to put the Governor on the defensive. Didi made it such a political issue  that even her two MLAs — Rayat Hossain Sarkar and Sayantika Banerjee — elected in the bypolls recently, refused to go to the Raj Bhavan to be sworn-in. They were sworn in by the Speaker at a special session of the Assembly on July 5. Bose has filed a defamation suit against Mamata after she remarked that “women are afraid to visit Raj Bhavan due to recent incidents”. Meanwhile, hunt is on for new Bengal BJP chief as Dr Sukanta Majumdar is a Union Minister now.

Maharashtra legislative council’s leader of the opposition (LoP) Ambadas Danve’s five-day suspension from the house is unprecedented in the state’s history. The fact that Danve used swear words denigrating womanhood while challenging a BJP member on the floor of the house has proved more shocking. Realising the gravity of his offence, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray has apologised, though conditionally. Danve was engaged in a verbal battle with BJP’s Prasad Lad when the reprehensible language was used by him. When a resolution to suspend Danve for five days came up, the opposition demanded discussion on the motion. However, quoting precedents, deputy chairperson Neelam Gorhe declined it. Uddhav later regretted the utterances of his party leader. However, Danve was unrepentant. He used threatening language against Lad once more. Moreover, he said that the BJP had no right to teach him democratic norms as it had suspended 150 members from the Lok Sabha. The conflict began when Lad made some statement pointing a finger at Danve, who vehemently objected and at one point was seen advancing menacingly towards Lad. The swear words used during this exchange stunned both sides of the house. The unsavoury incident is bound to impact electioneering for the assembly as the level to which elected representatives can stoop will create an impression among the rank and file about to take any liberties they wish.

The latest news that Tamil Nadu’s BJP chief K Annamalai has been chosen to study International Politics at the Oxford University for three months is making waves both in the Tamil Nadu BJP and the DMK circles. Many are reading between the lines of his study assignment as he goes in September and will be back only in the New Year. Reportedly, many within the BJP are eyeing his seat albeit even if it’s a short reign. Ah, the Teacher’s pet is going away, with any number of carpetbaggers of the club sashaying in to lead the charge of the fight brigade. Annamalai is truly maha kicked by such an honour to be one among 12 international people to be invited by Chevening Gurukul Fellowship for Leadership and Excellence programme. He is also going away as the big bang state Assembly election will be in 2026. Now with the BJP tasting blood in the Lok Sabha polls, and TN promises to be the coveted catch if it happens in 2026 – a BJP win will reset Dravidian politics. For the two well entrenched Dravidian parties fending off the major offensive led by Annamalai will be the real challenge.

The leadership of Ajit Pawar faces its most critical litmus test as he gears up to lead his faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) to fight not just his uncle Sharad Pawar but some disgruntled leaders within his own party, besides, facing hostile vibes from his alliance partners — BJP and Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde). This attack from multiple fronts is on account of the poor show of his party in the Lok Sabha polls; it bagged just one of the four seats. Even RSS openly expressed its displeasure of BJP entering into an alliance with Ajit Pawar in view of his blemished track record. Luckily, he has got a big relief; BJP has sent out a message that it will fight the forthcoming Assembly polls together. The other problem he is facing is poaching. Srom some of his own ex-party colleagues now in Sharad Pawar’s camp are trying to woo leaders from his camp. There have been constant claims in the media about how 10-12 of his legislators are in touch with the Sharad Pawar’s faction and may cross over. Some of the senior leaders within his own party are not particularly happy about his unilateral decision to nominate his wife Sunetra Pawar who lost the Lok Sabha battle to Supriya Sule, to Rajya Sabha. It is learnt that strong leaders like Chhagan Bhujbal have already begun strengthening his Samata Parishad platform, through which he has been very vocal in supporting the OBC agitation. Whether Ajit Pawar is able to retain his flock, put up a strong fight and bounce back, now remains to be seen.

In the earlier regime, the mindless interference by Naveen Patnaik’s private secretary VK Pandian upset not only the bureaucrats but even politicians across the party lines. Putting an end to that unilateral style of management the new BJP government in Odisha headed by Mohan Charan Majhi is ensuring a high degree of professionalism. For starters it has started making changes at the top by appointing Manoj Ahuja, a 1990 batch Odisha cadre IAS officer, as the Chief Secretary. Sources say that Ahuja has been selected because leadership at the highest level have reposed faith in him for his administrative acumen and rich experience across the departments. He was the former Secretary of the Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Secretary of Steel & Mines, Food, Supplies & Consumer Welfare and Commissioner of Commercial taxes. All these experiences will help him to fast track numerous administrative issues, and ensure that the common man can feel the difference. It may be recalled that the PM in his election campaign has promised to make Odisha No 1 state and Ahuja needs to ensure the entire bureaucracy is in sync to work towards that goal. Now, with absolute majority, BJP cannot pin blame on BJD.  Ahuja will retire on December 31, 2024 and there are strong indications that he, like the former two secretaries, will get an extension.  

In a recent state cabinet meeting, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has expressed her frustration with several ministers and leaders over allegations of corruption and non-performance. Giving stern warning to her cabinet, she has made it clear that she will not tolerate any lapses in governance, particularly in addressing civic issues and ensuring the general functioning of the government. It is speculated that her dissatisfaction with her ministers stems from a deeper analysis of the Lok Sabha election results. Despite the TMC securing a decisive victory by winning 29 out of Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha seats, a closer examination reveals underlying vulnerabilities in the party’s standing. While the TMC won both parliamentary seats in Kolkata, the party’s performance in the city’s municipal wards indicated a less dominant position. The TMC led in 93 wards under the Kolkata Municipal Corporation, but the BJP’s significant presence, leading in 48 wards, highlighted growing opposition strength in urban areas. The BJP’s lead extended beyond Kolkata, with notable inroads in several civic bodies across the state. Didi’s displeasure is rooted in reports of corruption, inefficiency, and lack of responsiveness by local leaders. Such issues have eroded public trust and provided the BJP with an opportunity to gain ground. The CM’s stern reaction towards her ministers appears to be linked to her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee’s, critical assessment of the government’s performance. As the party’s national general secretary, Abhishek has been vocal about issues like corruption and inefficiency within the administration.

The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra is finding itself in a similar situation, faced by the ruling Mahayuti alliance. Both sides are engaged in concealing the fissures within. Leaders from both camps keep claiming that several MLAs from the opposite side are on their way to their fold. The simmering unrest came to the fore when Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut set off a fierce debate in the MVA by obliquely suggesting that Uddhav Thackeray should be the CM face of the Aghadi for the coming assembly election. State Congress president Nana Patole has discounted the demand by merely remarking that his party has decided not to comment on any of Raut’s statements. Incidentally, the Congress has won the largest number of LS seats in the state. Jayant Patil, leader of the third partner, the NCP (Sharad Pawar), says that the priority for now is to concentrate on winning the election unitedly. Conversely, the Mahayuti is in the same boat. Though ruling, its three partners are not on the same page over several issues. Already, sections of the BJP and Sena (Shinde) have started blaming the NCP faction led by deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar for the Mahayuti’s Lok Sabha debacle. Some local units have gone to the extent of demanding removal of the NCP(A) from the Yuti. Countering statements against each other are becoming common for the Mahayuti, posing a challenge for the leadership.   

Maharashtra’s BJP deputy chief minister, Devendra Fadnavis offered to resign over the 2024 Maha Lok Sabha debacle the party suffered but the high command rejected it. Then the social media faux pas happened, when BJP’s Maharashtra IT cell head Shweta Shalini sued well known Marathi journalist Bhau Torsekar who in his Youtube show Pratipaksha equated Shweta with south Indian actor and party counterpart ‘Ramya’ who cost the party badly down south India some years ago. Fadnavis’ outreach to Bhau met with the latter’s follow-up parody episode further impacting the deputy CM’s public persona. Consequent social media outburst from party insiders exposed all the Fadnavis men for mismanagement of Rs 550 crore party funds during Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra. Sources say, one close confidant of Fadnavis is accused of usurping Rs 25 crore to purchase a high-end apartment in tony Malabar Hill, and also renting a plush office in Mumbai at Rs 10 lakh a month. Likewise another confidant from Nagpur is believed to have secured plum posting in MSEB. BJP’s Lok Sabha debacle in Maharashtra is being attributed to wrong selection of candidates, conceding more Mumbai seats to CM Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and disconnect with BJP cadres. Will Fadnavis mend the tear, put his house in order in time to face state assemblies? Time will tell, even as BJP additionally invests ‘Tan, Man & Dhan’ upon Fadnavis’ NCP counterpart Ajit Pawar for edge in the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections of 2024.

With no consensus between the ruling NDA and the Opposition INDIA bloc over Lok Sabha Speaker post and the deadline for the nominations nearing, the two alliances have separately fielded their candidates. This is the first election for Lok Sabha Speaker since Independence. On June 26, as the Lok Sabha convenes, the legislators will vote to elect the next Speaker, choosing between the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Om Birla as NDA candidate and Congress’ Kodikunnil Suresh as the Opposition nomination. Om Birla, a three-time MP from Kota, and longest-serving Lok Sabha MP from Kerala K Suresh have filed their nominations for the post of Lok Sabha Speaker.  A Lok Sabha Speaker is elected by a simple majority. More than half of the 543 members present in the Lok Sabha vote for a particular candidate to become the Speaker of Lok Sabha. The NDA, which has 293 MPs in the 543-member Lok Sabha, enjoys a clear majority. The Opposition bloc has 234 legislators in the lower House of Parliament. Apparently many Opposition parties like the TMC and even NCP (Sharad Pawar) are not happy with the decision to go for a contest. TMC felt the Congress took a unilateral decision to contest the Speaker’s post without consulting other parties. With numbers in favour of the NDA, Om Birla is set to become the Lok Sabha Speaker for a second term.  INDIA bloc said it was willing to support the NDA candidate but only if the deputy Speaker post is given to the Opposition. Clearly, the government did not wish a trade-off over the Deputy Speaker’s post. The Deputy Speaker’s post would probably go to one of its allies, the TDP.

Newly elected BJP MP Kangana Ranaut’s visit to Maharashtra Sadan in New Delhi a couple of days ago has set afire a verbal war between the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the BJP. News reports that Kangana had demanded the CM’s reserved suite in the state guest house and their subsequent refute by the Sadan officials have stoked bout of invectives. Sena MP Sanjay Raut has ridiculed Kangana’s reported demand and advised the Himachal Pradesh government to allot the suite reserved for that state’s CM in Himachal Bhawan to her. He has made some other remarks, too, against her. Taking on his old adversary, BJP MLA Nitesh Rane has rushed to challenge Raut by firing several questions at him. Rane has reminded his bete noire that Kangana is an elected MP and not “a backdoor MP” like him, referring to Raut’s third Rajya Sabha term. Attacking Raut’s criticism of the screen heroine, Rane has asked him, “Should it be made known about the stay of a Bollywood actress at the house you occupy?” To rub in the assault, Rane has dared Raut to seek an answer from Uddhav Thackeray about controversial police officer Sachin Vaze’s visits to the CM’s residence when he was holding the post. Raut had roasted the Maharashtra government about the latest drug racket bust in Pune. Responding in the same vein, Rane has asked him to clarify what steps the state had taken under Uddhav against the drug menace. Enough indications suggest that the two sides will become more virulent.

Even as all political parties in Maharashtra gear up for the forthcoming assembly polls scheduled around October, a sharp split between the Marathas and the Other Backward Class (OBC) community threatens to distort the political atmosphere of Maharashtra. Bandhs, highway blockages, stone throwings, tyre burnings fuelled by vitriolic statements from new leaders emerging from hunger strike agitations have become the order of the day. The consolidation of the Maratha vote bank which began with the successful agitation by Manoj Jarange Patil and subsequently led to the defeat of leading OBC leaders in the recent Lok Sabha, has sparked a sharp reaction from the OBC community which is feeling threatened. The OBC community views the consolidation of Maratha vote bank as an attempt to gnaw into their reservations and political strength. The OBC leadership across many political parties is also consolidating itself with leaders like Pankaja Munde from the BJP, Dhananjay Munde and Chhagan Bhujbal from the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP with support offered by Vijay Waddetiwar, leader of opposition in assembly from the Congress and even Prakash Ambedkar from the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) finding a common cause. The BJP, which suffered the most due to the Maratha consolidation in the LS elections, has now thrown in its weight behind the OBC plank, mulling Rajya Sabha berth to Pankaja Munde, reclaiming Eknath Khadse and even offering encouraging signals to Chhagan Bhujbal. The BJP is now on a sticky wicket as it struggles to do a balancing act to not antagonise the Maratha vote bank while retaining support of the OBC.

After yet another disappointing performance in West Bengal, the state BJP’s post-poll analysis has underscored the pivotal role of women voters and the influence of Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo Mamata Banerjee. The BJP believes that schemes like Lakshmi Bhandar have further solidified the allegiance of women voters to Didi, making it challenging for the BJP to make inroads in the state. A section of BJP leaders has acknowledged that Banerjee’s targeted social schemes — such as the Widow Pension, Swasthya Sathi, Kanyashree, and Roopashree — have resonated strongly with the female electorate. The BJP’s internal dynamics are also set for a change, where current state president, Sukanta Majumdar, who is also the MP for Balurghat, has been inducted into the Modi government as a junior minister. This development has spurred discussions about his successor, especially since the central leadership has expressed dissatisfaction with the results under Majumdar’s leadership. With the West Bengal State Election slated for 2026, the BJP is keenly aware that winning over women voters is crucial to reversing its fortunes. Speculations are rife that the BJP may appoint a woman as the state president to counter Banerjee’s influence effectively. Names like Locket Chatterjee, Agnimitra Paul, Debasree Chaudhuri, and Malti Rava Roy are being considered, with former Hooghly MP Locket Chatterjee emerging as the frontrunner. However, the race for the state presidency is not limited to female leaders. Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari and former state president Dilip Ghosh are also in contention.

After Mamata Banerjee dealt a body blow  to West Bengal PCC chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury by getting  him defeated in Berhampore Lok Sabha by fielding  cricketer Yusuf Pathan from Gujarat,  a whole lot of possibilities seems to have opened up for  the Congressman. Adhir is quite upset with the Congress leadership that did not pitch in any help during Bengal polls. In fact, post-defeat, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge called him up and urged him not to vacate his Lutyens’s bungalow and promised to find something for him. To media queries about his switch to the BJP, Adhir has neither confirmed nor denied it.  Yes, Modi-Shah are thinking of fielding Adhir as a Rajya Sabha candidate from Tripura in place of former CM Biplab Deb who has got elected to the Lok Sabha. The buzz is Adhir could be eventually inducted as a central minister and deployed to work in Bengal. Under Suvendu Adhikari’s leadership, the BJP in Bengal has been struggling. Apart from traditional leaders such as Dilip Ghosh who can take on Mamata, there are only a handful of leaders in the BJP who can take on the Trinamool. Of course, if Adhir joins the BJP he could prove to be a major irritant for Mamata. That means, for the TMC leader, getting Adhir defeated in Lok Sabha may not have been a wise move at all.

With the BJP government firmly in place in Odisha, the key question in everybody’s mind: “Is it the end of Biju Janata Dal”?  “Not really…the political drama has just begun,” says a clued-in political analyst from Utkal University. Yes, BJD’s supremo Naveen Patnaik is not giving up the fight. Patnaik is aiming to be a formidable opposition force to BJP. He wants to stay relevant and aims to bounce back at the right time. Immediate plan of action is to keep the party united, regroup rank and file and prepare strategies for the future. Observers say, this makes sense as Naveen is still loved by four-crore plus Odias. He is likely to take over as leader of opposition in the Odisha Assembly. Rumours are BJD MLA Prasanna Acharya is now batting to be Naveen’s deputy in the Assembly. Naveen babu’s future success will depend on four factors, one, what “mantra ” he has which will enable him to keep his numbers intact, two, having ears to the ground addressing rank and file concerns, three, quickly creating second rung leaders and four grooming a successor. After being in power for over two decades, Naveen babu for the first time is an opposition leader. So how he converts this into a political opportunity will have to be seen. Right now he is playing cards close to his chest.

During the late J Jayalalithaa’s governance, Chennai’s Poes Garden was literally the epicentre of power. Nothing moved unless the diktat came from the iconic residence of the late CM, ably assisted by her confidante VK Sasikala Natarajan, a power centre in her own right. Sasikala, in near oblivion after her jail term has again surfaced and hit the headlines. She held a press meet at her imposing residence just across JJ’s home. Without much preamble, the lady announced “I have decided to get back my place and my party in electoral politics”. MGR and Jayalalithaa gave everything to build the AIADMK as the country’s third largest political party. But it has been sadly led into the worst setback by people with no vision, only greed and selfishness. She further added that she watched this debacle silently, and patiently like how “MGR taught me”. Both my leaders never used caste as the cornerstone…I too profess no caste. Making Edappadi CM when she was sent to jail was the beginning of the party’s downfall. She is determined to “free TN from the monstrous clutches of the DMK, unite AIADMK and bring back the glory. The rumbles and muttered exchanges are now growing louder. As also speculation was the message from the BJP high command to Sasikala to use her special talent to bring the broken bits together? For BJP her rise will be akin to killing two birds with a stone —EPS and DMK.

The Nationalist Congress Party led by Ajit Pawar is presently buffeted by successive jolts. The latest are the suspense surrounding senior OBC minister Chhagan Bhujbal and the demand by sections in the BJP and the Shiv Sena (Shinde) to distance the NCP(A) in view of the upcoming assembly elections in the state. Intricately linked with this development, Bhujbal’s next step will impact the state politics since he is the focus of the Maratha-OBC conflict over the demand for reservations for the dominant caste. Bhujbal has been under pressure by his supporters to take a ‘decisive step’ about staying on with the NDA. Feelers are circulating that he could stage a homecoming – by returning to the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray. He had left the Sena in 1992 to join the Congress and later switched over to the NCP floated by Sharad Pawar in 1999. His decision to go behind Ajit Pawar had astounded even his close supporters. Bhujbal can command a substantial OBC vote bank. If this is not enough for the NCP(A), some elements in the BJP and the Sena (Shinde) have started complaining that the NDA candidates in their areas did not receive the expected support from Ajit’s party. The anger has been heightened due to Ajit’s decision to send his wife Sunetra to the Rajya Sabha despite her defeat in the Lok Sabha election. The next week will prove testing for the three-party ruling alliance for several other reasons, too.

The internal rift within the Bengal BJP is deepening as prominent leaders continue to point fingers at Opposition Leader Suvendu Adhikari for the party’s disappointing performance in the recent Lok Sabha elections. The political discord is escalating, with senior leader and former state president Dilip Ghosh indirectly accusing Adhikari of orchestrating the candidate selection process that led to the party’s downfall. Ghosh has suggested that his own transfer from the Medinipur constituency to the Bardhaman-Durgapur constituency was part of a deliberate strategy to undermine his chances. Under Ghosh’s leadership, the BJP achieved its best-ever results in Bengal, winning 18 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and securing 77 seats in the 2021 State Assembly polls, making the party the principal opposition force. In response to the criticisms, Adhikari has maintained that his role was limited to campaigning for the party and not interfering in organizational decisions. He has refrained from engaging in public debates about internal party issues. The unrest has spurred some party members to call for Ghosh’s reinstatement as state president, especially since the current president Sukanta Majumder has been made a minister at the Centre. Supporters of Adhikari argue that he remains a potent force against the Trinamool Congress (TMC), citing his significant victory over TMC leader Mamata Banerjee in Nandigram during the 2021 elections. Adhikari’s recent absence from a critical state party meeting on June 15, opting instead to be in Cooch Behar to support victims of post-election political violence, has added fuel to the internal controversies.

After the much talked about high voltage dressing down in public of BJP leader Dr Tamilisai Soundararajan by home minister Amit Shah during Chandrababu Naidu’s swearing-in ceremony, the whole clip going viral saw BJP doing damage control. Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai went to her residence to pay his respects and the media was peppered with the optics of this Akka-Thambi (sister-brother) closeness. Memes about the Tamil hit Shivaji Ganesan- Savitri film Pasa Malar flew thick and fast. Dr Soundararajan is from a staunch Congress family…father Kumari Ananthan and her late cousin Vijay Vasanth expressed their shock when she joined the BJP. But a patch up took place when she married Dr Soundararajan in the presence of the two tallest Dravidian leaders –MGR and Kalaignar, underscoring her debut as a young leader. Her unique hairstyle and bright sarees have been mocked sometimes cruelly after her defeat by suave and sophisticated Tamizhacchi Thangapandian. Many opposition leaders used to tease her Tamilisai “Parattai” (unkempt sloppy hairdo) they called her. Unfazed she would shoot back… I may be, but at least my hair is original, not a wig master, Ouch! Stalin. With over 25 years of public life, walking out of two Governorships, this 62-year old former TN BJP chief post is relevant in her own right. An election loss and the public exposure, however anti-party, all stemmed from stress. Will Congress welcome her after Amit Shah publicly ticked her off?  Tamilisai’s predicament is aptly described by the 17th century poet John Milton in Paradise Lost where he says “Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.”

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar is now at the receiving end for varying reasons. On the heels of the criticism published in the RSS mouthpiece ‘Organiser’ against the BJP’s decision to take him along, the NCP led by him decided to field his wife Sunetra for the lone Rajya Sabha vacancy from the state. As her’s is the only nomination, she will be elected unopposed. The disapproval of the decision emanates from the fact that Sunetra was defeated in the Lok Sabha election by Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule. Despite this, Ajit has prevailed upon his party leaders to grant the seat to her. The absence of chief minister Eknath Shinde and DCM Devendra Fadanvis at the time of filing of the nomination by Sunetra has added to the political speculation against Ajit. His clarification that he had not invited anyone for the filing, which was attended by only NCP(A) leaders, is seen as a lame defence. Ajit also did not respond to the ‘Organiser’ criticism, which had observed that the BJP had lessened its brand value by including Ajit in the state government. He said different people expressed their opinions after elections and they had a full right to do so. “I have concentrated on development. We have to face the coming assembly election with fresh vigour,” he said, declining to be drawn in a new controversy.

In a surprise move, Tamil Nadu BJP President K Annamalai dropped by Chennai South candidate Tamilisai Soundarajan’s house in Chennai and briefly chatted up with her. The interaction follows furore in the social media over home minister Amit Shah publicly censuring her for her comments against lack of alliance between AIADMK and BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls; Tamilisai blamed Annamalai for severing ties with the AIADMK. Tamilisai, who belongs to the influential Nadar community, had resigned as Telangana Governor, as she was hoping to get elected as MP and become a central minister. She was aware of the effort made by Annamalai to build the BJP in the state and was hoping to capitalise on the goodwill created by him. She had polled as much as 2 lakh votes, which is sizable. However her remarks against Annamalai were not liked by the BJP top brass as it was the AIADMK which had walked out of the NDA fearing loss of minority votes in September 2023. It was Annamalai’s effort that had helped the BJP increase its vote share to 11.24 %. Meanwhile, Annamalai also hit back at DMK’s K Kanimozhi after she mocked him for not winning any seat in Tamil Nadu. The NDA, which comprised 7 parties besides the BJP, could not win any seat even though its vote share went up. Kanimozhi said Annamalai’s loss in Coimbatore showed that there was no place for the BJP in TN. She also said that Annamalai’s continuation as BJP’s Tamil Nadu chief was not good. Responding to Kanimozhi’s remarks, Annamalai said: “If my father was Karunanidhi, I too would have won all elections easily in Tamil Nadu. My father’s name is Kuppuswamy. He is a farmer and nobody in my family has got any smell of politics.”

The untimely passing away of the Mumbai Cricket Association (MCA) President Amol Kale, 47, following a cardiac arrest — hours after he saw the India-Pakistan ICC Men’s Twenty20 World Cup clash at the Nassau County ground in New York – could see heavyweights across parties come into play in a big way. Kale, a family friend of the Maharashtra State Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, defeated the 1983 World Cup star Sandeep Patil by 25 votes to become the MCA President in 2022. Right from the time of Seshrao Wankhede — who is credited with MCA breaking the umbilical cord with the Cricket Club of India (CCI) and bringing up its own stadium at `D’ Road, Churchgate fifty years ago — politicians like Shiv Sena’s Manohar Joshi, NCP’s Sharad Pawar, Congress’s Vilasrao Deshmukh and BJP’s Ashish Shelar have called the shots as MCA President. The trend of politicians occupying the top post was broken by Vijay Patil, whose father was aligned with the NCP, and Kale, a friend of Fadnavis from his younger days in Nagpur.  Kale would have completed two three-year terms as vice president and president next year, but his sudden demise has caused a vacancy to be filled for 15 months. Vice-President Sanjay Naik will fill in as chair at official meetings for 45 days, by which time the MCA members, as per their Constitution, will have to elect a new President. Two years ago, the State government successfully pushed for the election of Kale. The million-dollar question now is: Will the BJP-Shiv Sena take a plunge into the high-stakes election scene or hand it on a platter to UBT Shiv Sena’s Milind Narvekar — an Apex Council member now — who is said to have good equations with one and all.

Ever since he was picked as Minister of State (MoS) by PM Narendra Modi to be in his team 3.0, Suresh Gopi the BJP’s first leader to be elected from Thrissur Lok Sabha, Kerala has been battling a series of denials. First it was speculated that he wanted to be relieved of his ministerial responsibilities. He was not too happy that he had been designated only as MoS and not given Cabinet rank. He was upset that he should be given the same rank as one bestowed on a party veteran — George Kurian who had served Kerala BJP for 4 decades.  Besides, as an actor, Gopi wanted to complete his film assignments. “My films are definitely one of my priorities. I think I will be given the space…My PM and Home Minister will find a method by which I will not ditch my passion,” he reiterated his commitment even as he took charge of the Ministry of Tourism.   A junior minister also in the Ministry of Petroleum, Gopi was caught giving heartburns to party workers in Thrissur. High on his victory when he won against CPI’s VS Sunil Kumar by a margin of 74,686 votes. Gopi had spoken about fielding female film stars for the state assembly elections from his Lok Sabha constituency. “If an MP starts speaking like this we will finish our party workers,” pointed out a worried BJP Kerala leader. Meanwhile, BJP veteran George Kurian who took charge as MoS in the Minority Affairs Ministry and Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying Ministry, may have felt rewarded for all the quiet work he put for Kerala BJP all these years.

Thirty nine year old Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai proves yet again that he is an enigma, hard to decode and dogged in his efforts, untiring and unbeatable. Stepping into the BJP in 2019, and getting leadership in 2021, his mercurial rise within the party is astounding. Within four years he proved his mettle of building the BJP presence from around 4% to 11.26 % vote share in the just concluded Lok Sabha election. His detractors and rivals were happy when he was summoned to the swearing-in ceremony of PM Modi and his team. His defeat in Coimbatore must have been a big sting. Happy that he would be put to pasture in a cabinet berth and vacate TN’s hot seat as the leader. The three aspirants, Tamilisai Soundararajan, Vanathi Srinivasan and Nayinar Nagendran were already drumming up support to move into Annamalai’s post. Even as he sat in the last row when the PM gave his motivational sermon his strong opponents DMK and AIADMK leaders were trying to read his body language. Surprise and shock was writ large on his party colleagues, his antagonists and cadres when he flew back to TN thereby signalling that he had high command’s full backing. It was not surprising as Annamalai has single-handedly cobbled a BJP presence in TN, worked 24/7, walked padayatra, taken on the ruling party on many issues and remained politically significant. Above all, in a Dravidam state alternating between the DMK and AIADMK, he brought relevance to Hindutva and the BJP. He may have ruffled many feathers both within his party and opposition but he is here to stay for a long haul.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde has started mending fences immediately after the formation of the Union cabinet. His confidant Naresh Mhaske, the new Shiv Sena (Shinde) MP, has called on MNS leader Raj Thackeray ‘to thank and seek his blessings’ for the public meeting held by the latter in Thane in support of Shinde’s son Shrikant and Mhaske. The MNS is unhappy with the BJP bigwigs for not inviting Raj for the swearing-in ceremony of the Modi cabinet on 9 June. Senior BJP minister Sudhir Mungantiwar’s explanation that this may have happened due to some oversight on the part of the officials preparing the list has not gone down well.  Though thousands of invitees attended, how come the MNS chief was forgotten, his rank and file have started asking. Raj will express his feelings about this lapse at the party rally to be held in Mumbai on June 12. The CM’s close associate, health minister Tanaji Sawant, visited Raj’s Shivaji Park residence to assuage his feelings. Raj’s open support came handy for BJP’s Narayan Rane in Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg and for Mhaske in Thane. In fact, Shinde had made it a prestige issue to claim the Thane seat despite the BJP’s stiff resistance. Mhaske’s and Shrikant victory has augmented the Sena (Shinde) presence in the district.

The sigh of relief in the DMK may have been loud enough as the results in the Lok Sabha polls restored the national balance somewhat.  When opposing the BJP tooth and nail in the state and broadcasting their aversion to the party nationally in cutting speeches by CM Stalin and his son Udhayanidhi, the DMK understood that a BJP back in power and in full control of Parliament may have tried to play tricks. The unspoken fears were about the Centre beginning to needle the top brass of the party by using the federal investigating agencies further after their efforts to break Senthil Balaji as a key money maker and funds mover in both Dravidian parties (he was earlier with AIADMK) have not succeeded. DMK’s strategy to counter the BJP where it hurt was to ensure that the state chief K Annamalai was beaten. It can be revealed that the ruling party was unusually generous with purse strings to bring about a favourable result in Coimbatore. Had Annamalai succeeded he would have stood a good chance of being drafted into the Union ministry where, with a post in the Finance Ministry, he could have aimed for settling scores with the DMK brass. Of course, the mood may have altered slightly after the results, and it is unlikely that the top leaders will become subjects of interest to financial investigations any time soon.

Suspense is building up who will be BJP’s Odisha chief minister after strong contenders like Dharmendra Pradhan and Jual Oram’s induction into Modi 3.0 Cabinet. The party high command seems to be unsure who should be its CM pick. To zero in on the right candidate the high command has deputed two senior party leaders Rajnath Singh and Bhupender Yadav to Odisha as central observers. Meanwhile, more names are doing the rounds. Sixty-four year old Suresh Pujari, former MP who won the Brajrajnagar assembly seat in 2024 is emerging as one of the serious contenders along with BJP state unit President Manmohan Samal, KV Singh Deo, Mohan Majhi and others. There seems to be some thinking that the high command may opt for the formula of one CM and two deputy chief ministers to maintain checks and balances. The dark horse in this race for the CM’s post could well be the retired IAS officer Girish Chandra Murmu who hails from Betnoti, Mayurbhanj district in Odisha. Sixty-four year old Murmu was the former Comptroller General of India and ex-J&K Lieutenant Governor. He was Principal Secretary to Modi during his CM days in Gujarat and also worked closely with home secretary as joint secretary. But, Modi is always known to spring surprises like he did with India’s first tribal President Droupadi Murmu who hails from Mayurbhanj, Odisha.

There is so much anger in Karnataka BJP over party candidate Lallu Singh for losing the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat under which falls Ayodhya; the seat has been won by Samajwadi Party which fielded a Dalit candidate mocking the Ram Mandir movement. BJP workers from the southern state have been trying to reach Lallu and attempted to give him an earful. He was a two-term MP and had remained inaccessible to his constituency. If one listens to the viral video (https://youtu.be/MOdV377sA3k?si=hiVLX020RMIa4MqM), one will get the sense of how arrogant a BJP leader can be when he is speaking to his own party workers. The workers launch a blistering attack on him for losing Ayodhya. “You should not have contested. After all Yogiji opposed you as a candidate, “Lallu can be heard defending his rout by saying — he wasn’t the only one to lose. Why did Kalyan Singh’s son Rajveer — who contested from Etah lose?” he asks. He is also heard asking the southern party workers about who was Yogi to cancel his ticket.  Sources close to Yogi conceded that the UP CM had no role in picking candidates. In fact he had even stayed away from campaigning for most of the candidates As a result some of Shah’s loyalists like Smriti  Irani had to bite dust. Ever since the CM was objecting to renomination of most sitting MPs, the BJP fellas were all getting around Yogi’s nod   endorsed by home minister Amit Shah. BJP sources said the elephant in the room was subtle competition between Shah and Yogi. In fact at the NDA meeting on June 7, PM Modi sent out a loud message of endorsement of Yogi’s leadership by warmly patting his back at the Central Hall of Parliament.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) president Raj Thackeray’s total silence about the NDA’s rout in the state in Lok Sabha elections was found to be intriguing by those who know him well. The mystery has deepened owing to his decision to withdraw his party’s candidate from the Konkan Graduate Constituency election for one vacancy in the state legislative council. The decision to withdraw Raj’s ardent follower Abhijit Panse, who had entered the fray last week. His candidature had perplexed the NDA partners since it was a unilateral decision. More so because the seat has been with BJP’s Niranjan Davkhare, who is seeking re-election. MNS leader Nitin Sardesai announced that his party decided to withdraw Panse at the express request made by Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis to Raj. Some strain had been created due to Panse’s decision to contest and the stoic silence maintained by Raj had only heightened the suspense. All said and done, the withdrawal by Panse has come as a great relief for the BJP, which is still recovering from the LS drubbing. Had there been a triangular fight, the risk of the INDIA candidate benefiting at the cost of the BJP would have loomed large. Fadanvis and Raj have saved the situation but have posed more questions.

With a win of 29 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, party supremo and chief minister Mamata Banerjee has once again proved that she is a very tough opponent to crack. Beleaguered by the Sandeshkhali controversy, Teachers Recruitment scam, arrest of senior TMC ministers and leaders put Didi on the backfoot. But, her astuteness came to the fore in choosing candidates to stop what seemed a BJP’s juggernaut. She not only chose surprise faces such as former cricketers Kirti Azad and Yusuf Pathan, actress Rachana Banerjee, she even put forward her trusted lieutenants and cabinet ministers such as Partha Bhowmick, Biplab Mitra to contest the seats.  Her decision to increase the expenditure for the Lakshmir Bhandar initiative touched the women voters across the state. Sources say that Didi is scheduled to meet her newly elected MPs on June 8 and one could expect a major ‘shuffle’ in the organisation based on the results of the Lok Sabha polls — where the party failed and where the margin dropped. Not only in the party but also at the panchayat and municipal levels, there may be several reshuffles. Sources also said, the evaluation work is going on at all three levels of the Panchayat by the poll strategy body IPAC. Close-aide of Didi have confirmed that the meeting has made it categorical to her nephew Abhishek Banerjee that the party should start preparing for the 2026 assembly polls. Interestingly, 2024 marks Mamata’s 40 years in politics, this covers her journey as a mercurial leader to a Mamata Magic, from unseating CPI(M)’s veteran, late Somnath Chatterjee to joining and leaving hastily both Manmohan Singh and Vajpayee governments to routing CPI(M) citadel in 2011 after 34 years of rule.

Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil managed to show his political clout in the 18th Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra without putting up even a single candidate in the fray. The impact of the Maratha vote bank led to the almost wipe out of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance particularly from the Marathwada region, where it lost seven of the total eight seats. The Jarange Patil factor is also directly blamed for the defeat of Pankaja Munde, who hails from the Other Backward Class (OBC) community, due to polarisation of the caste factor. Munde’s convoy had to face black flags and even faced entry blockades from various villages due to the Maratha agitation. Bajrang Sonawane, from Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) who defeated Pankaja Munde, rushed to pay his respects to Jarange soon after his victory. Buoyed up by his role, Jarange has now announced that his party will now put up candidates from all communities in all the 288 constituencies in the forthcoming Maharashtra assembly polls if the government fails to expand reservation benefits for the Maratha community. He has also threatened to sit on an indefinite fast and rake up heat on the Maratha issue from June 8 onwards in preparation for the forthcoming crucial state polls. The re-emergence of Jarange Patil now threatens to affect the chances of the BJP across the state at a time when it is already facing a drastic slash down in the state from 23 seats to 9 Lok Sabha seats.

Trinamool Congress once again managed to derail BJP by winning 29 Lok Sabha seats against BJP’s mere 12 against 18 in 2019.  With such good tidings, the party supremo Mamata Banerjee seems to indirectly indicate that her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, who made this big win possible, will succeed her. Didi’s magic and Abhishek’s poll strategies made sure that TMC’s win.  As for his own win, Abhishek won by a record seven lakh plus votes. Didi announced at the press conference that Abhishek will be her representative at the I.N.D.I.A. front meetings and decision making processes. It was Abhishek’s strategy to give the impression that the BJP intended to halt benefit initiatives by Mamata’s government, if BJP comes to power. Earlier, he had undertaken several protest programmes including a dharna at New Delhi to protest against the Modi government for not releasing MNREGA funds.  Despite the youth-senior conflict within TMC, the Opposition’s jabs at ‘corruption’ and ‘nepotism’, Abhishek’s strategy appealed to Bengali voters. He also played an important role in the campaign plan, selection of slogans, and holding meetings with party leadership across the state. According to Trinamool sources, the main slogan of the party in the Lok Sabha elections is the brainchild of Abhishek. Mamata’s remarks at a press conference following the election fuelled further speculations. She said, praising Abhishek’s efforts demonstrated amazing leadership and determination. Although she did not formally designate him as her successor, the endorsement was interpreted that eventually he will step into her shoes.

Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United (JDU) has shared a cryptic post on X in which he has talked about both Nyay and Vikas — two ideas that are close to the Congress and the BJP. He is all set to play a kingmaker’s role after Lok Sabha 2024 results, it is interesting that he has used both the terms. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s JDU performed better than NDA allies as it contested along with the BJP. In fact, he walked out of the RJD tie-up under pressure of MPs and sided with the BJP. His party is leading in 14 and BJP in 11. There are speculations that Nitish Kumar, who has a history of switching sides at key moments, is keeping both options open. Many social media users earlier speculated that the Bihar CM could change sides again and join the I.N.D.I.A bloc if he is offered the PM’s post. In fact there were reports that Nitish initially resisted meeting the Bihar BJP chief. When such reports reached Delhi, BJP’s top leadership had a special emissary sent to him to ensure that he reaches Delhi to attend the NDA meeting on June 5. At least one state CM and I.N.D.I.A leader– Mamata Banerjee– is not very happy about the importance that PM Modi is bestowing on Nitish Kumar. She is getting quite upset about the talk of the deputy PM’s post being offered to him. She had reportedly brushed off performance claims about JDU, considering the TMC has also done well. After all both Nitish and she have been rail ministers in the Vajpayee government. Both the leaders are not known to get along.

One of the biggest surprises of the 2024 Lok Sabha results was that the I.N.D.I.A bloc gave a tough fight to the BJP-led NDA in Uttar Pradesh. While everyone has been lauding Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav for repackaging his party and making a spectacular comeback, BJP sources said the I.N.D.I.A front gained mainly by manufacturing a lie about reservation and how Modi in his third term would do away with it. It was this lie that saw the BJP falling short of a majority on its own in the 543-member parliament. The SP and the Congress deliberately spread panic among dalits and managed to win 42 seats. This means Modi will have a lot of trouble in his third term as he will have to depend on allies to form the government. It will introduce some uncertainty in policy-making as Modi has ruled with a free hand in the last decade. The party has so far won 239 seats compared to the 303 seats it had won in 2019. Besides in UP alone, it appears Ram Mandir has not yielded the party any special dividend. In fact, before the temple was built in 2019, the BJP had bagged 62 of 80 seats in UP, but in the post Ram Mandir era the BJP has been restricted to 38 seats, bringing down the overall BJP tally and weakening PM Modi’s third term. Party sources conceded that the conspiracy theories floated by the Congress and SP weakened Modi’s mandate. Congress leaders twisted the call for a 400 paar mandate as a ploy to undo reservations for the Dalits. “There are 17 reserved seats in UP. Because of this damaging campaign by Congress we have been restricted to three or four reserved seats this time. As a result this time our tally from UP has been hit,”points out a BJP Dalit leader.

The results of the Lok Sabha elections have disappointed the rank and file in the BJP but, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already commenced his third term work to flesh out his 100-day plan for India, including flagship policy amendment for handing over administration of temples across India to the Hindu community. This strategy, even while Modi continues in election mode targeting forthcoming state assembly elections in five states of the Indian union. A closed-door meeting between expected incumbent PM Modi and erstwhile Union Home Minister Amit Shah decided to prioritise the first council of Union Ministers comprising public representatives from states facing imminent assembly polls. Maharashtra’s citizens will elect 288 Members to its state legislative assembly by November 2024 just like Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir. Delhi and Bihar follow suit in 2025 while Tamil Nadu, Assam, Puducherry, Kerala, West Bengal state assemblies are scheduled in 2026. PM Modi’s 3.0 political regime will likely include Shivraj Singh Chauhan who relinquished Union Ministership to deliver Madhya Pradesh state assembly to BJP. Maharashtra’s Lok Sabha outcome has dampened and shocked everybody in the BJP coming in the wake of the double sympathy wave attracted by Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Pawar has silenced critics who foretold the end of his political career. There is going to be serious introspection and there may be reshuffle in Maharashtra according to sources. So, parliament ushers in the amendment allowing Hindus to administer their own temples (take it away from respective state governments) bringing the community on par with Muslim and Christian religious trusts.

Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit) is experiencing some unease at present over the perceived adverse line adopted by its senior leader Chhagan Bhujbal. The latest cause is Bhujbal’s defence of rival NCP (Sharad) leader Jitendera Awhad, who is facing flak for tearing a picture of Dr BR Ambedkar during a protest action. The BJP and NCP (Ajit) have held protest demonstrations to condemn his lapse. Rather than following the Mahayuti line, Bhujbal has supported Awhad by saying that the error happened when he was protesting against Manusmritii. “We will not allow backdoor entry of this retrograde social code,” Bhujbal declared, annoying his own party. When a huge hoarding collapsed in Ghatkopar, Mumbai a couple of weeks ago, Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray was attacked by some Mahayuti leaders in connection with the permission granted for erecting the massive billboard. At that time, too, Bhujbal had termed the criticism of Thackeray as wrong. Earlier Bhujbal had been refused the Lok Sabha Nashik candidacy, despite his efforts to obtain blessings from Delhi. During electioneering, he had stated that the response to the rallies of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav was overwhelming. Being a powerful OBC leader, it will be difficult for the NCP (Ajit) to touch Bhujbal. On the other hand, his choices to return to his earlier parties seem limited owing to his various caustic attacks against Sharad Pawar and Uddhav. The lid on the mystery will be lifted soon after the Lok Sabha results are out on 4 June, it is felt.

The BJP government’s Information and Broadcasting Ministry, mandated to rectify pejorative and false narratives of Hinduism peddled through (mostly Hindi) commercial cinema by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since 2014, has almost finalized its CEO for the Central Board of Film Certification (CBFC) to censor films before release. IRS (customs) officer Kundan Yadav’s appointment file is pending approval of the Election Commission of India. More recently, Yadav was seen poking fun at Sanatana dharma, the Sunder Kand and Maha Mrityunjay Mantra while also taking potshots at Brahmanism and the Manu Smriti texts while using self-composed poetry on a public platform in Jaipur. “Even while drafted for election duty, this JNU product openly denounced the BJP giving speeches regarding his single-minded efforts against the national party. Is it merely enough that he possesses a doctorate (PhD) to be appointed the CBFC CEO? What happened to the 360-degree-SWOT analysis, assessment of his knowledge on the craft of film-making?” asks a senior BJP leader in anguish. Yadav’s stay at JNU was subsidized by his seniors in his first year, when he failed to secure hostel accommodation. Thereafter, this brilliant student, despite needing two terms to complete his HSC board examinations, became a topper of his class, even securing a teaching tenure in the USA on scholarship. One of his JNU professors did pull him up once for not having collected funds allocated to him through yet another scholarship he had been bestowed with for inordinately long. Some guys have all the luck!

Ahead of the last day of polling for the 18th Lok Sabha across 57 seats including Varanasi from where PM Narendra Modi will be contesting for the third time, there is a quiet confidence in the ruling side about the number of seats the BJP will get. Yes there are some numbers to mull ahead of the Exit Poll. Top party bosses are apparently comfortable with reports that the BJP itself would be comfortably placed even as reports indicated that its allies in Maharashtra and Bihar are not able to deliver on candidates and perform just as well. It is being said the BJP is tipped to get 315 seats. Party sources said it may seem the BJP may have wasted its seats on the allies. BJP feels in Maharashtra the NCP (Ajit Pawar) faction does not seem keen on continuing in the NDA for the assembly polls. It is felt Ajit may merge his faction with his uncle Sharad Pawar for the assembly polls. Again, though PM Modi has gone all out backing the breakaway Shiv Sena group headed by Eknath Shinde, the ruling Sena may not come out in the top because of the choice of candidates. Performance of alliance partners could drag BJP in Bihar too.  RJD’s pitched campaign against JD(U) for Nitish Kumar’s flip-flop could hit some JD(U) candidates. Chirag Paswan’s skewed candidate selection has hit the NDA image in the state. It is for this reason that BJP leadership has begun to talk about doing very well in West Bengal and Odisha. Of course, PM Modi’s confidence to form the next government has not stopped the Congress leadership from staking claiming to form the government in Delhi. Meanwhile, in a copycat act of the TMC, the DMK also chose to stay away from the I.N.D.I.A bloc meet called on June 1.