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Haryana state assemblies, set for triangular fight between Congress, BJP and AAP, saw Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s timely enlargement on bail suiting BJP’s poll strategy although facing tough anti-incumbency itself. Congress authorized former CM Bhupinder Hooda to finalise poll prospects, refusing to cede 10 assembly constituencies to AAP for pre-poll alliance. Hooda’s son Deepinder, a Lok Sabha MP organized fanfare for Olympian wrestler Vinesh Phogat (a Jat) on her return following the Olympic debacle. She was part of the Jantar Mantar agitation over molestation charges against ex-president WFI and BJP MP Brijbhushan Singh. Julana constituency choice for Phogat, however, raises questions over winnability with Congress never winning the seat and potential loss of face for the party that garnered 10,000 votes at best from here. AAP fielded former WWF wrestler Kavita Dalal against Phogat to further dampen Congress prospects while Kejriwal who steps down as Delhi CM utilizes bail time to canvas against Hooda’s choice of candidates. Brijmohan Shrivastav, Chief National Spokesperson NCP (Ajit Pawar) feels Phogat will emerge victorious in husband Somvir’s home constituency as Jat and Rathee communities will combine in her favour since caste is dominant factor in Bihar, UP and Haryana. Phogat’s recent disqualification at Olympics and perception of BJP not backing her up upset the two communities. It may be recalled that Phogat and wrestler husband Rathee even challenged norms at their wedding ceremony, opting for eight rounds (vows) of holy havan kund including extra phera emphasizing the girl child (Beti Bachao, Beti Padao, Beti Kilao) over gender bias evident in population ratio of Haryana. Will Julana solemnize Vinesh’s Congress alliance too?
Will Harmanpreet Kaur and Smriti Mandhana pull off a coup at the ICC Women’s T20 World Cup in the United Arab Emirates? The two stalwarts of the Indian team are the top two run-getters in the format for India and among the top three in the world. Kaur has played 153 innings from 173 matches, scored 3426 runs, and has featured in 92 wins, while Mandhana, 135 innings from 141, scored 3493 runs and has featured in 79 wins. Kaur has played all eight previous world cups, and Mandhana has five. But both have been erratic in the global competition which is reflected in Kaur’s average of 20.57 and Mandhana’s 22.45. That India is placed in a tough group along with six-time winners Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka means that they cannot make a faltering start against New Zealand at the Dubai International Stadium on October 4. India has won 55.56% of its World Cup matches and has a 50% record against Australia and New Zealand (played 4 and 2 wins each), four wins against Sri Lanka out of five and five wins against Pakistan from seven matches. Since only two advance to the knockout from the preliminary stage, India starts its campaign with a pressure match against New Zealand. India has not played a single Twenty20 international in Dubai, as is the case with Australia. But Pakistan and Sri Lanka have. India has played 36 matches since January 1, 2023 and lost 10 including the Asia Cup final to Sri Lanka.
Maharashtra BJP is facing a quandary since the mass media is awash with reports about a purported internal survey conducted by the party in Vidarbha region. The reason – the prediction that neither the BJP nor the Mahayuti will fare well in the region. Although BJP leaders are yet to react to the news stories, the survey has reportedly said that the Mahayuti can win around 25 seats out of the total 62 in the BJP’s traditional stronghold. Vidarbha was once the Congress citadel and had stood by Indira Gandhi even after the post-emergency election in 1977. However, it has been a cakewalk for the BJP since 2014. The first jolt it received was the Lok Sabha election earlier this year as the Congress performed unexpectedly well, at the cost of the BJP. In 2019, the BJP-led saffron alliance had won 39 of the seats. However, after the splits in the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the configuration has undergone a sea change. In view of the Lok Sabha voting pattern and analysis, the Mahayuti will have no problem in remaining at the top but its dominance will be dented seriously, if one wishes to trust the so-called survey findings. According to the survey assessment, the BJP will be able to win 18 seats while the Sena (Shinde) will bag just five and the NCP under Ajit Pawar a token two. The overall tally of 25 for the Mahayuti will impact the alliance’s ambition of returning to power in the state in the election, most likely to occur in November this year.
Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has finally rung down the curtains on the speculation surrounding the prestigious Baramati assembly constituency by giving out ample indications that he will contest the seat this time, too. Ajit took this decision after he was advised that his shaky stance could cost the NCP(A) heavily. Ajit has also scored over the two other Mahayuti partners – the BJP and the Shiv Sena (Shinde) — by finalising nearly two dozen assembly candidates. Both these parties are still to decide on their nominees. Internecine power struggle and past rivalry with each other are hindering the list finalisation. The picture on the Maha Vikas Aghadi is a little different. None of the MVA partners has so far declared any name of a prospective candidate. Against this backdrop, Ajit has overtaken all other parties in the state. Equally important is his willingness to enter the fray after dilly-dallying for a long time. The other names in Ajit’s list include former home minister Dilip Walse Patil, senior leader Chhagan Bhujbal and the legislative assembly’s deputy speaker Narahari Zirwal. Not to take a chance, Ajit’s team started combing the Baramati constituency much earlier. The contest will be a fierce one if Ajit’s nephew Yugendra Pawar decides to take on his uncle. Yugendra is groomed by NCP founder Sharad Pawar ever since Ajit broke away from the parent party. Whatever the outcome, the seat will remain with the Pawar family, which has been holding it for the past 55 years.
Even as Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin signed off his U.S. sojourn with a “goodbye USA” post, there is still a lot of speculation about the real purpose behind his nearly month-long tour across America. Though the official reason being given is that he had gone there to talk up foreign investment for the state, but both his critics and well-wishers are not convinced that the kind of business meetings that Stalin had lined up with CEOs reveal foreign investment had driven the DMK leader to camp in the U.S. Sources close to Stalin say the real purpose of the CM staying away from Chennai was that he was advised by astrologers, consulted by wife Durga, that the CM must stay away from his home, preferably travel across seven seas for the sake of his well-being and future of his politics. That is why in view of the inauspicious times, he also put off elevating son Udhayanidhi as Deputy CM as he was not sure of its impact on senior DMK leaders His critics have been panning his U.S. trip in social media as a waste of public money.
The Communist Party of India (Marxist) in Bengal is grappling with a significant leadership void following the sudden demise of Sitaram Yechury, the party’s General Secretary since 2015. Known for his pivotal role in steering the CPI(M) through turbulent political waters, Yechury’s death has left a profound impact, particularly on the Bengal State Committee, with which he had close ties. His demise has now triggered discussions within the party regarding his successor, with sources close to Alimuddin Street indicating that the Bengal faction is seeking someone aligned with its interests. Among the names being floated for the interim general secretary position are Brinda Karat and Prakash Karat. However, sources close to the party’s leadership in Bengal suggest that Brinda Karat has the edge, primarily due to her past association with Bengal. She was nominated to the Rajya Sabha by CPI(M) Bengal secretary Anil Biswas, further solidifying her connection with the state’s leadership. As there are also whispers about Maryam Alexander Baby, a former Kerala minister, as a possible successor to Yechury, in the upcoming Central committee meeting, the state unit is likely to push hard for a leader with pro-Bengal sentiments to take up the national leadership role owing to Yechury’s Bengal connections. Mohammad Salim, the current Bengal State Secretary, is another figure whose name has been suggested for a possible elevation to the national level. If Salim were to step up, the Bengal unit would need to find a new state secretary..
Six months after he was first arrested in the liquor policy scam, Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal got bail in the CBI case. The AAP chief will now walk out of Tihar jail having been granted interim bail in the ED’s money laundering case in June. Fifth leader to get bail after AAP leaders like Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh in the same case, Kejriwal’s release may help the AAP go full throttle in its campaign in Haryana — where it will be taking on both incumbent BJP as well as the Congress, which refused to ally with it. Haryana-born Kejriwal will also have the advantage of testing his acceptability in the state even as AAP rules adjoining Punjab. The bail conditions make it difficult for Kejriwal to return to Delhi CM’s office. It is likely that he may go for an interim CM, elevate wife Sunita. Legally, the bail verdict has cast the CBI in a poor light as one of the judges invoked “caged parrot” analogy of the coal scam era and dubbed CBI arrest as “unjustified” after Kejriwal had secured bail in the ED case. Lok Sabha MP Sheikh Abdul ‘Engineer’ Rashid, who had been incarcerated in a terror-funding case under PMLA for 5 years, was recently freed by a NIA court to take part in J&K polls. To his surprise, the man who had trounced former CM Omar Abdullah in Baramulla was shocked to find that only fewer people had turned up to listen to him as he addressed his first election rally in Baramulla. Will Kejriwal’s experience be different from Rashid’s?
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s meeting with U.S. lawmaker Ilhan Omar sparked controversy, with the ruling BJP accusing him of aligning with anti-India forces. “…He has become the first LoP from India who met with a declared anti-India MP Ilhan Omar notorious for speaking against our country,” said BJP leader Sudhanshu Trivedi. Ilhan Omar serves in the U.S. House of Representatives, representing Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District, which includes Minneapolis and nearby suburbs. Omar has introduced resolutions in the U.S. Congress that criticised India’s policies and spoke against India’s decision to revoke Article 370, which gave special status to J&K. In April 2022, she visited Pakistan, met with top Pakistani leaders, including former Prime Minister Imran Khan, and travelled to Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK). India condemned the U.S. Congresswoman’s visit to POK. In June 2023, Omar boycotted PM Modi’s address to the U.S. Congress. In June 2023, she introduced a resolution calling on the US Secretary of State to designate India as a country of particular concern for alleged violations of religious freedom. BJP IT cell chief Amit Malviya accused Rahul Gandhi of siding with Ilhan Omar, whom he described as a Pakistan-sponsored anti-India voice. His reaction came a day after Rahul in an address to the diaspora, took a jab at the BJP, saying people are no longer afraid of PM Modi after Lok Sabha results. In the backdrop of J&K polls, it would be interesting to see how Rahul’s photo-op interaction with Ilhan Omar plays out in the UT.
Netflix India’s content head Monika Shergill met Union I&B Ministry officials answering summons over controversy surrounding Anubhav Sinha’s IC814 -– The Kandahar Hijack web series aired worldwide. The inadequate disclaimer tagged alongside the series was promptly rectified with additions reflecting, “During the hijacking of IC814 (Indian Airlines plane) terrorists used aliases, code names. The names of terrorists were: Ibrahim Athar (alias Chief), Shahid Akhtar Sayed (alias Doctor), Sunny Ahmed Qazi (alias Burger), Mistri Zahoor Ibrahim (alias Bhola), Shakir (alias Shankar).” While expected to bring closure to issue, BJP is livid at the selective advisory being aired limitedly on Netflix India while global feeds (aired through U.S.-based servers) continue depicting the old disclaimer. I&B Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw faces flak from within BJP for the limited clarification. “The Indian Hindu diaspora is a global phenomenon in every corner of the world. Why is disclaimer restricted to resident Indian audiences? I&B Minister must take issue with Netflix,” senior BJP leader Mahendra Jain says. Another leader states, “Vaishnaw knows the old disclaimer was amended to include fresh advisory to be put out globally to set the record straight. This is now akin to hijacking the clarification itself to suit Netflix’s convenience. When newspapers issue rejoinders over inaccurate facts, it’s not limited to one segment alone but carried across editions so all readers are well informed.” He added BJP’s former I&B minister Ravi Shankar Prasad lost his ministry over a smaller faux pas after being tasked by PM Narendra Modi for tackling X over pejorative content regularly tweeted. “Back then, Prasad’s own twitter account was suspended which did not go down well with the BJP higher ups and he lost his job. Vaishnaw must pull up his socks or else face a similar fate.”
The Chennai-headquartered Shriram Group has become a bone of contention between NCLT and IRDA. One of the largest financial services companies in the country underwent a series of reorganization in the not-so-distant past. Ostensibly, the objective was to un-clutter its cross-holdings to usher in a simplified structure. By doing so, it sought to consolidate its focus on its core business. The restructuring process also involved two group companies — Shriram Life Insurance Company Ltd and Shriram General Insurance Company Ltd. As part of the process, the separate investments of Shriram Capital in these two insurance ventures were demerged into two SPVs (special purpose vehicles) – Shriram LI Holdings and Shriram GI Holdings. These investments were described as businesses while setting in motion the demerger process. This was done mainly to address the taxation angle. Within a year or so of the formation of these two SPVs, a move was initiated to amalgamate these two with the Shriram Life Insurance Company Ltd and Shriram General Insurance Company Ltd. The NCLT in Jaipur (where Shriram General is headquartered) and NCLT in Hyderabad (where Shriram Life is headquartered) heard these cases for approval. Insurance regulator IRDA raised objections to the amalgamation at Jaipur NCLT. The IRDA insisted that it had sole powers to approve since the merger related to the insurance entity. The Jaipur NCLT, however, declared that a merger of a non-insurance company with the insurance firm falls within the purview of the Companies Act, and, hence, IRDA has no power. The NCLT Jaipur suggested that only transfer of shares would come under the Insurance Act. In this instance, the amalgamation will result in the issue of fresh shares only. Hence, the NCLT Jaipur is convinced that fresh share issue comes under its purview only. The amalgamation move, no doubt, has the NCLT nod. But the NCLT Jaipur order has a lot to ponder over for the IRDA. Consequent to the NCLT Jaipur...
The guessing game ‘will it or won’t it survive’ continues in Maharashtra. The twitterati is on overdrive, “Wait for June”, their tweets say. But, everybody from political analysts to man on the street, are saying that the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) cart is being pulled in different directions by the three parties – Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress. Everyday there is some proof of that. A case in point being Maharashtra’s Cabinet Minister Nawab Malik hogging publicity by saying that the State will provide free vaccines for people in the 18-45-year age bracket. Congress party was peeved. Its leader and state Revenue Minister Balasaheb Thorat said the decision on a free vaccine should be announced by the Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray. Likewise, Aaditya Thackeray had tweeted: “The Govt of Maharashtra has decided to vaccinate its citizens free of cost….” Realising he had jumped the gun, he deleted his tweet quickly. On the other front, Sharad Pawar, who has been vocal and active since the formation of the MVA government, has been maintaining studied silence for the last one month on various events that has engulfed the state – Vazegate, Lockdown and CBI raids on former Home Minister Anil Deshmukh. One reason could be his health problem. He was flitting in and out of Breach Candy hospital. Be that as it may but political observers are reading too much into his so-called meeting with Amit Shah in Ahmedabad in March. Political observers say that the Congress and the NCP are quietly going about building their party’s image. On the other side, former Chief Minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis is in full flow; doing everything to ensure he is back in the CM’s saddle. Hope it is not the case of Waiting for Godot!
Speculation is rife in the Capital over the outburst of political economist Parakala Prabhakar, the husband of Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. In his weekly Blog Midweek Matters on YouTube, Prabhakar has openly attacked the Modi government for its handling of the second wave of Covid-19. In his 15-minute video, Prabhakar used strong words to express his anguish and criticize the Modi government. With this video circulating on social media and stories being written in newspapers, rumour mills are doing overtime whether Sitharaman will meet the same fate as that of Jayant Sinha, son of former BJP leader Yashwant Sinha. It may be recalled that Yashwant Sinha was critical of the Modi government as he felt sidelined in the party. His father’s constant outbursts at Modi saw Jayant Sinha who was holding the prestigious Minister Of State for Finance portfolio being shunted to Civil Aviation ministry in 2016. Even though he won 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Hazaribagh with a record margin yet Jayant Sinha failed to find a berth in the cabinet. Some people are asking why Prabhakar chose to attack PM via social media when he through his wife has got direct access to PM. Meanwhile, the Capital grapevine is buzzing about an imminent cabinet reshuffle some times in May
A new form of chauvinism has been spotted. It is induced by oxygen. Within hours of the top court setting conditions for the reopening of Vedanta’s Sterlite copper smelter in Thoothukudi (earlier Tuticorin) on the Tamil Nadu coast, Opposition leader MK Stalin declared that all oxygen produced by Sterlite should be used in Tamil Nadu and that no oxygen supply from any source should serve other states until Tamil Nadu’s requirements are fully met. Stalin’s observations came because the Tamil Nadu government, peeved at censorious comments from the Supreme Court, was hedging by saying that Sterlite would not be able to manufacture medical quality oxygen. Sterlite’s lawyer Harish Salve, however, told the court that the plant will be able to supply 200 MT of medical grade oxygen within 10 days of opening. Along with oxygen, Sterlite politics is also swirling in Tamil Nadu with a few political parties, including Vaiko’s MDMK, opposing the opening of the plant even in such a dire national emergency. The plant was shut for environmental concerns three years ago after protests turned violent with 13 people getting killed in police firing. And now, local people representing the victims of the firing are refusing to nominate anyone to the committee to oversee the production of oxygen.
For the 43-year-old privileged crown Prince, Udhayanidhi Stalin, son of TN DMK chief MK Stalin, riding two horses simultaneously or wearing multiple hats should not be a problem…the DNA is such. His grandfather, late Kalaignar Karunanidhi, scripted the evolution of the DMK, even as he wrote cinema scripts and thundering dialogues for hit movies, cannily built his political empire into one of the most prosperous family dominated organisations. Son Stalin won his party spurs and long successful years as the heir apparent to the DMK throne, even as he acted in a few movies, won the mayor seat of Chennai, went to jail under MISA, an event frequently dredged up as a horrific reminder of Indira Gandhi’s Emergency. Udhayanidhi aimed directly for hero roles in eight movies, with big time heroines, a few of them box office hits, soaked in that alchemy of Cinema and politics. Now, the TN election scene: Udhyanidhi is the contender from Chennai’s iconic Chepuak constituency. Already the surveys predict that he will breeze through. The grapevine has even decided what his portfolios may be. Now comes the hard part. Udhayanidhi has to choose between Cinema Hero and Party Power, a hard niggling choice. Are you wishing, Kaash mujhe bhi aise chunaav karna pade?
Actor Khushboo at 51, has done it all. She has acted in over 130 South Indian films, has idlis, sarees and jhumkas named after her, and then came that icing on her popularity cake: Tamil cinema fans built a temple for her near Tiruchirappalli … all this for a ‘woman of substance’ who can hold her own in a debate, talk about premarital sex and women’s empowerment with no hypocrisy. You can love Khushboo or hate her, but not ignore her. Well, she proved it to three of the most articulate political outfits sashayed into DMK in 2010, welcomed no less than the then Chief Minister, M Karunanidhi, walked out in a huff in 2014, right into the arms of a Congress party in disarray and quit in 2020, claiming being sidelined as Queen Sonia ignored her. Then she had that Eureka moment: the merry-go-round popular star found an attractive perch in the BJP in 2020. A lesser woman would have collapsed under the trolls and media sarcasm that ensued. Not Khushboo. She took on the baiters with unashamed elan. So, what if I changed political affiliations like costumes for a film dance sequence, she shot back. The BJP had met its match…and Khushboo her rocket launch. She is the party’s candidate from Thousand Lights, a Muslim and historical DMK stronghold. Come May 2, she may well sweep the trolls or the polls.
The Game of Thrones for Tamil Nadu has never before seen such heated speculation. Whichever party is about to win according to the main characters, it ain’t over till the fat lady sings. DMK Supremo MK Stalin waiting in the wings like Prince Charles, AIADMK Chief Minister Edappadi Palanisami smug in his expectation of a runaway electoral win with his considerable heavyweight alliances, the BJP hopes of a breakthrough, Chinnamma Sasikala sulking at her unexpected down turn of fortunes after thumping hard on Jayalalithaa’s gravesite, the lesser political parties hoping to pull off a bargaining coup. TN is awaiting the poll results with abated breath! So wearing masks is not an option. They say in Urdu, Bade Miyan Tho Bade Miyaan, Chote Miyaan Subhanallah. This political ilk may well be outflanked by the greed and ambition of the Babu class. After a full five year stint as part of the ruling power, the race is already on for the next tranche of share in goodies — portfolios, berths, lobbies. Word on the street, many an IAS and IPS incumbent has already started kite flying. Stalin and son Udayanidhi were tracked fiercely by some bureaucrats. Stalin’s family posse of 15 including cousins Maran winged their way to Kodaikanal, to savour some quality time away from these pestering aspirants, and a savvy scheme for family squabbles to be settled.
The AIADMK caretaker power centre is no pushover either. Chief Minister Edappadi Palanisami found out in good time that at least 15 of his erstwhile MLAs were planning to jump ship. So he called in the Judas team, coolly read out his numbers chart — his party would be neck-and-neck with DMK according to his intelligence wing’s math. So think twice before you kick this ladder, he advised. The lost souls quickly caught on, but they are still marked. Greed can make for a tenuous perch. As they say in Hindi, Na ghar ke, na ghaat ke. One does think, may be Super Swami Jaggi Vasudev’s popular motivational words, athanaikkum aasai padu (desire everything) inspired them. The thrills and chills of an election, and its outcome! Meanwhile, going by the betting market predictions, it is clear that the odds are against the ruling AIADMK.
The ferocity of the second attack of pandemic has rattled everybody – with Covid toll hitting 1,500 a day after new cases surged from 50K on March 24 to 261K on April 18. Ten states – including UP, Delhi and Maharashtra — account for 79% of all new cases. For the argumentative Indians, it’s a moment to speak truth to power, to hold up a mirror to the all-powerful Prime Minister – with Mann Ki Baat (words of wisdom) pouring from plucky crusader Prashant Bhushan, former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Saamna editorials. Beginning February, the tone was set by Bhushan: “FM announces Rs 35,000 crore of our money to be spent on Pvt Vaccine Companies for untested Vaccines at a time when Covid is naturally dying down in India! But this money cannot be given to poor migrant labour who lost their jobs or to Farmers for MSP on their crops. Wah FM sahiba!” The tweet was as confusing as it could be. The State had the opportunity to counter the disturbing narrative: instead of wasting time haggling over the MRP for the atm-nirbhar, all-affordable jab, it could have simply taken a leaf from America’s Operation Warp Speed that made the Big Pharma the nation’s ally. India’s fresh $17-million funding to ramp up Covaxin should hopefully lead to more investments in capacities – which are needed now to save lives as much as defend its $3-Trillion economy (and also, the $5-Trillion dream).
Super star Rajinikanth cited health reasons and backed out of politics. But stories and innuendos are still doing the rounds. What happened after he went to Hyderabad for that shooting schedule of yet to be released Annaatthe? Just to jog memories, this mega budget movie is a SUN Network production, and it is vital that Maran brothers get the DMK elected — several legal issues are riding on a DMK win for the brothers and the cousins. According to the tongue-in-cheek waggers, if Annaatthe had a Pongal release as originally planned, it would have given huge heft and traction to Rajini’s political entry and indirectly hit the DMK. So why not delay? And what better reason than Covid on the sets. Many think the penny dropped, a bit late for the star. Things were not going to be that simple, that you get a crazy fan following translate into votes, and snowball it into an AIADMK victory with its alliances. What MGR, M Karunanidhi, and J Jayalalithaa had wrought, endured and survived cannot be replicated. These were very special talents, colossuses who could overcome the toughest challenges. Rajini realised that his health issues could not take on the scorching heat and vitriol of election politics. Better to accept the fan frenzy, sustain your superstardom. Politics is a marathon only a few can run.
Cycling his way from Chennai to Mamallapuram in a red and black tracksuit, sporting his party colours, MK Stalin is sending a message of dynamism to the public of Tamil Nadu. Private exit polls run by elements close to political parties seem to suggest he should get ready for his coronation. Even before he hit the campaign trail, Stalin had presented himself to the voting public as a younger man with a complete makeover — hair transplant, dentistry and Botox — to give him greater confidence in front of the camera. He is the quintessential political leader now all geared to take his father’s seat in Fort St George as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. His DMK party’s booth level workers have also injected plenty of confidence in him with confidential reports of how the party may sweep the polls. Looks like the 68-year old Stalin who has been waiting in the wings for a long time will finally find the well-deserved place under the sun.
Gambling syndicates in Kolkata are offering bets on the results of 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly elections, including picking the winners of 294 seats. The official results will be out on May 2. So, who will form the next government? How many seats will the TMC win? Will the BJP improve its tally? You get some answers from the bookies, based on their projections, as on April 12: BJP may win 154-156 seats, while TMC may bag 116-118 seats and the balance by other political parties. The going rate is even money, that is, 1:1, for both TMC and BJP. BJP is clearly the favourite as of now. Bookies are paying Rs 1.20 for WB Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who is contesting from Nandigram and Rs 0.40 (40 paise) for BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari, Didi’s confidante-turned-adversary. Higher rate indicates lower winning probability while lower rate indicates higher winning probability. A month ago, before elections began, the bookies were paying Rs 0.40 for Didi and Adhikari. After the first phase, the rates for both Mamata Banerjee and BJP were Rs 0.90 each. The bookies were quoting a price of Rs 1.20 for TMC and Rs 0.40 for BJP after the second phase. High rate indicates lower winning probability, while lower rate indicates higher winning probability. The high-voltage poll rallies have kept the bookies on their toes as they are frantically exchanging notes almost every minute, and fixing rates for each party and candidate. Following the completion of the fourth phase of polling, Kolkata bookies claim BJP is clearly ahead of TMC. The fifth phase of the poll scheduled for April 17, may go in favour of TMC and Left Front, they speculate. As for the veteran political pundits, the fierce tussle seems to be leading towards a hung assembly!
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India has leaped dramatically from Covid-19 vaccine-reluctance to celebrate the Tika Utsav since the first Covid-19 jab received by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 1 and the second one on April 9. From less than 1% of population receiving at least one dose of vaccine on March 1 (1.2 crore), the coverage jumped to 6.3% (8.57 crore) by April 9. Modi taking Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin dispelled all fear and doubts. “The Covaxin has not yet had Phase 3 trials. Approval was premature and could be dangerous,” Congress leader Shashi Tharoor had tweeted earlier. Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav announced he would not take the “BJP Vaccine”. On April 12 – the second day of Tika Utsav, and the 87th vaccination day – more than 37.63 lakh citizens (over 45 years) received jabs, making India the fastest nation to administer vaccine doses to 10.8 crore. With the states running mass campaigns – from high-frequency TV ads of Delhi Chief Minster Arvind Kejriwal to Sonu Sood being appointed as brand ambassador by Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh – the focus has now shifted to preventing vaccine wastage (6.5% nationwide) amid the second wave of pandemic. States like Telangana with wastage of 17.6%, Andhra Pradesh 11.6% and Uttar Pradesh 9.4%, will have to reorganise their efforts to meet the goal of keeping it below 1%. The task is critical as capacities are ramped up with new vaccines like Sputnik V getting regulatory approvals.
In less than nine months of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s welcoming the first batch of Rafale jets and highlighting how the fighter jet acquisition was a unique Government-to-Government deal, the Congress party is back with a fresh Rafale assault. “Karma = The ledger of one’s actions,” tweeted Rahul Gandhi, triggering a low-intensity twitter brawl with hashtag #Rafale. India’s season of multi-state polls and rallies has once again got animated after Yann Philippin’s Rafale report appeared in French portal Mediapart.fr. Subramanian Swamy’s joining the brawl has only raised confusion. His tweet, “Gov may brief a few to counter the ballooning demand for probes in France on the Indo France Rafale deal. I had originally studied it when XXX struck a 126 plane deal with Carla Bruni. Parrikar cancelled it and started a new deal. He briefed me. But alas Parrikar passed away.” Soon, Swamy shared a livefistdefence.com story (May 11, 2011) where he had attacked the IAF’s $12-billion M-MRCA fighter deal during the UPA regime. Philippin’s disclosures to Barkha Dutt’s Mojo Story point to involvement of a middleman who is already being investigated by the Enforcement Directorate in AugustaWestland case. That partly explains why the so-called scandal – dismissed as “completely baseless” by Union Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad – didn’t get the desired twitter momentum. The question being asked is at whose behest is the Rafale issue being raked up again?
As the Final Countdown begins for the high-voltage Kerala Assembly elections on April 6, the voters are presented with two simple options: BJP candidate E Sreedharan’s Palakkad model and Kochouseph Chittilappilly-Kitex’s 20:20 model, versus the decades old alternate rule model of the Left and the Congress. Sreedharan has outlined his five-year development vision for Palakkad. This is also reiterated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi: “The time has come for FAST development in Kerala — F for fisheries and fertilisers, A for agriculture and Ayurveda, S for skill development and social justice and T for tourism and technology.” V Guard’s Chittilappilly and Kitex’s Sabu have transformed Kizzakambalam panchayat’s (in Ernakulam) socio-economic landscape with their 20:20 party’s transformative endeavours: roads built to last with a 20-year guarantee, a corruption-free panchayat office and the 20:20 supermarket (akin to a DMart or Walmart’s scale) that enables even a poor family of four members to shop their entire week’s groceries for just Rs 500! Sreedharan, Chittilappilly and Sabu are positioning themselves as the Mahabalis of Kerala (the legendary king of the native folklore in whose memory the festival of Onam is celebrated by all communities in Kerala), who can ensure that it’s a daily Onam lifestyle in certain assembly constituencies of the state. Is “Onam Lifestyle” – having Onam every day as a way of life – an idea whose time has come? Well, we will have to wait for the final word from the Kerala polls to understand the voters’ tryst with Onam.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Principal Advisor PK Sinha, who resigned on March 16 citing personal reasons, is tipped to be the next Puducherry Lieutenant-Governor (L-G). The position is lying vacant ever since L-G Kiran Bedi was called back by the Centre because of constant face offs between her and V Narayanasamy, who eventually stepped down as Chief Minister after the Congress government lost majority. Tamilisai Soundararajan, current Governor of Telangana, has been given additional charge of Puducherry. The official announcement is expected to be made after May 2 when the Puducherry assembly election results will be declared. Sinha, who is from 1977 batch, is the only IAS officer to get three extensions as Cabinet Secretary. It is learnt that Modi is keen that Sinha, his trusted advisor, can be a guide and friend sitting in the Raj Bhavan unlike his predecessor’s constant tug-of-war with the Chief Minister. The Madras High Court last year amid widening rift between Bedi and Narayanasamy had ruled that a government is “a trustee for the little man who should not have a perception that the running of the government is a gigantic conspiracy.” It held that the role of Puducherry’s L-G and that of an elected government in the Union Territory were intertwined as per law, and therefore they were expected to act in unison and not in division. Against this backdrop, the BJP insiders point out that Sinha is the best choice.
The BJP fights every election — be it Taluka Panchayat or the Lok Sabha election — with a spirit to win and establish its rule. Even though the party’s plan went haywire with superstar Rajinikant bowing out of politics, it has not given up hopes. It is going whole hog with its ally AIADMK and other smaller parties to ensure the AIADMK-led government retains power. Towards this, all their senior leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi are vigorously campaigning in Tamil Nadu. Very much aware that the BJP may not make big gains in Tamil Nadu, it is doing everything within its means to make its presence felt in Dravidian politics. BJP’s strategy received a major push after Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Edappadi Karuppa Palaniswami announced a 10% quota to Vanniyar community from the Most Backward Class category. This move was to checkmate DMK which enjoys sizable support. What is interesting is that the Vanniyar community has a strong presence in at least 40 of the total 234 seats where it can really change the political equations. Further, PMK, which had garnered 5.36% vote share in the 2016 elections, and has been demanding a quota for the Vanniyar community, is the AIADMK-BJP alliance partner. This quota politics has also raked up an issue of caste-based census. Looks like the BJP is spreading its wings in yet another southern state by riding piggyback on AIADMK.
By not denying his meeting with NCP Supremo Sharad Pawar, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the de facto chief of BJP, has yet again dropped hints that it has not given up on “Operation Lotus’’ in Maharashtra. At the same time, he has created suspicion among Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partners about Pawar’s next move. Shah knows that by holding parleys with Pawar, it will make Opposition parties think twice of forming a front under Pawar’s leadership to take on Modi. Political analysts say the idea is to sow the seeds of suspicion that Pawar cannot be trusted. Shah’s timing seems to be perfect. Currently, there is a mistrust between the three MVA partners — Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress — after the Ambani bomb scare conspiracy came to light. This incident has opened the Pandora’s Box with Maratha strongman trying to defend Home Minister Anil Deshmukh over the Rs 100 crore hafta charges levelled against Deshmukh by the former Police Commissioner, Parambir Singh. On another front, the Leader of the Opposition in Maharashtra, Devendra Fadnavis who has rocked the MVA government with his explosive expose is now getting ready to fire more salvos ahead of the BMC elections slated for 2022. BJP has launched MissionMumbai 2022 with a resolve to elect its own party mayor and thereby end Shiv Sena’s dream run. Here it is toying with the idea of entering into an alliance with Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena so as to steal Sena’s Marathi Manoos plank and wrest BMC. But, Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray seems to be leaving no stones unturned to ensure that BMC, the country’s richest municipal body stays in Sena’s fold.
The Indian Express annual list IE 100: The List Of Most Powerful Indians in 2021 is out. There are no surprises in terms of Top 10. Prime Minister Narendra Modi holds on to his #1 position, so does Home Minister Amit Shah at #2 followed by RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat at #3. Bhagwat was ranked #4 in 2019, and this slot has been occupied by the BJP President JP Nadda this year. Reliance CMD Mukesh Ambani holds on to his #5 rank while Adani Group Chairman Gautam has pole-vaulted from 28th position to #10. As always, every year there are new entrants. This year there are five names from the healthcare sector as this sector had to do fire-fighting to manage Covid-19. There are 59 politicians, 17 businessmen, 9 bureaucrats who find a place in the survey. Surprisingly, there are no film stars, spiritual guru or sports personalities save for Virat Kohli. So this brings to fore what was the methodology or criteria used to select these powerful Indians? The prefatory note is silent on that front.
With technocrat and builder of some of India’s iconic public infrastructure projects, E Sreedharan joining the BJP, the Kerala voters finally have an “optimistic third option.” The state assembly elections have traditionally been marked by a two-horse race to power – and the rotation of power between the LDF and the UDF over the past couple of decades. Two scenarios are available for the voters: BJP backed by the Christian leadership, Church and voters, could get the 72-seat simple majority to form the government (140 seats). The state observers hold that Sreedharan’s clean image, the likelihood of political autonomy that he may command, and a “strategic” election manifesto should nudge the average Kerala voter to back the BJP and allies. In the second scenario, contrary to opinion polls now favouring the Left, the Congress can form the government, mainly backed by allies IUML, SDPI and Welfare Party. However, it will be a plain replay of the past 20-year administration. Though the Anna-Kitex group backed 20:20 party could win the entire eight contested seats, it prefers to sit independent in the opposition and continue with its well-received public welfare goals. For some analysts, with this assembly polls, the NDA and the 20:20 party may get positioned as formidable options in the next 10-15 years in a radically transformed Kerala.
Can an embarrassed and troubled Uddhav Thackeray ask his Home Minister Anil Deshmukh to resign after former Mumbai police chief Param Bir Singh’s allegation that Deshmukh had asked his officers to extort Rs 100 crore per month for him? Given the tradition in Maharashtra’s coalition government, the Chief Minister is helpless unless the alliance partner NCP agrees to let him go. In this case, it is the NCP which must decide. Had it been a Congress minister, it would have been entirely that party’s call. Should Pawar decide to nominate him for another ministry from those allocated to the NCP, Uddhav would have to allow that. Had it been a Sena minister, Uddhav needn’t ask anyone at all. Technically, it is the CM, who heads the cabinet, but the team members are decided by each partner. When Chhagan Bhujbal was the Deputy Chief Minister to Sushilkumar Shinde, they both got along like a house on fire. But Pawar asked Bhujbal to resign when it was alleged that his supporters had violently attacked a TV station’s offices in 2003. He was replaced by Vijaysinh Mohite Patil while Shinde just had to grin (which he literally does as a habit) and bear it. If Uddhav goes against the delicate alliance arrangement, a serious crisis in the coalition could arise.
Like the Texas ranger J.J. McQuade in the Hollywood thriller Lone Wolf McQuade, this 60-year old Parliamentarian NK Premchand too likes to work alone. He is the one-man army who has made his presence felt in the Lok Sabha. A four-time MP from the Kollam district of Kerala, he is the Central Secretariat Member of the Revolutionary Socialist Party. Whether it is debate or raising questions, he is in the forefront. According to PRS.Org, between June 2014 and February 2019, Premchand asked 471 questions (national average: 293), participated in over 300 debates (national average: 67), and had attendance record of 87% compared to the national average of 80%. He introduced a private member bill overturning Sabarimala verdict and it was the first private bill introduced in the 17th Lok Sabha. Everybody from the prime minister to speaker to MPs acknowledge his dedication and commitment. And nothing misses his sight. He raised the question about a Supreme Court-appointed panel issuing an advertisement in a leading newspaper inviting comments on new farm laws. It was “unfortunate” that the Apex Court was encroaching upon the domain of Parliament, he said. If the panel can seek comments on the new laws, “then what is Parliament meant for”. Quite.
Trouble, they say, never comes alone. At least that is what West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee may be discovering much to her dismay. Many famous personalities who helped build Trinamool Congress from scratch and were part of her inner circle are quitting the party. Respected and seasoned politicians like Dinesh Trivedi, Adhikari brothers, Rajib Banerjee and film personalities are attributing their quitting to Didi’s temperament; as they are not able to put up with her angry outbursts, insults and uncharitable remarks. Add to this, the phenomenal rise of her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, who is rubbing senior party leaders the wrong way. The exodus continues and the latest news wafting from the Writer’s Building, according to reliable sources, is that the current Finance, Commerce & Industries Minister Dr Amit Mitra may relinquish his office after the assembly elections. It is learnt that Dr Mitra is keen to spend more time with family and focus on his health. It may be recalled that Dr Mitra was the familiar face in Delhi when he served as the Secretary General of the FICCI. Born in an illustrious family, economist Dr Mitra joined the All India Trinamool Congress in 2011 and defeated the then Finance Minister Asim Dasgupta belonging to the CPM. Incidentally, Dr Mitra is part of the ministers and MLAs who have been denied party tickets for the current Assembly elections.
As Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy is busy in settling scores with his political rival and TDP supremo N Chandrababu Naidu, the Andhra Pradesh government is heading for a debt trap. The CM is busy in spending on welfare schemes and social security cover. But what is worrying is the high level of borrowings. Amid Covid-19 stress and downturn, Andhra Pradesh’s borrowings in 2020-21 is estimated at a whopping 142% — a cause of concern for the state’s ruling YSR Congress party government. What has also increased the state government’s worry is the high fiscal deficit, which is put at Rs 68,536 crore, while the revenue deficit crossed Rs 48,809 crore in December 2020. Clearly, the economists and experts say the situation is alarming as they predict a fiscal emergency in the state. It is a crucial time for YSR whether he continues to neglect fiscal impropriety or adhere to fiscal prudence to save the state from a major financial crisis.
In recent times one has been noticing Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray formally dressed like an office-goer – trousers and tucked-in full-sleeved shirts instead of his traditional kurta-pyjama. Last December he mandated that all the State government employees should refrain from wearing T-shirts, jeans and slippers to work. He is leading from the front. Most politicians are well dressed. The immediate name that comes to mind is that of the Congress leader Shivraj Patil who held important positions in the Union government. He was known for his sartorial taste. At times he used to change his dress several times a day. Likewise, Sonia Gandhi is always elegantly dressed in a well-draped cotton saree. Rajiv Gandhi’s kurta-pyjama was accompanied with Gucci shoes, Rolex watch and Cartier sunglass. Politicians started becoming dress conscious because of two reasons. One, both the Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha TV channels were telecasting live the daily proceedings. Two, the entry of youngsters, including film stars. I recall BJP leader Pramod Mahajan saying: “Even when disrupting parliament our voters like us to look good!” Narayan Rane as Maharashtra’s chief minister always preferred an odd two-button jacket but never a full suit. Many like Sharad Pawar preferred white trousers and half-sleeved bush shirts. Gopinath Munde preferred kurta-pyjama and a Nehru jacket but never wore trousers. The bandhgala was the favourite of two chief ministers in Maharashtra: Sudhakarrao Naik and his uncle VP Naik.
Once bitten twice shy. After a poor show in the Bihar elections and being publicly insulted by the RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav for spoiling the alliance prospects as Cong could win only 19 seats against 70 contested, the Congress party seems to have gone soft in its seat-sharing talks with the DMK Supremo MK Stalin in Tamil Nadu. Against its original demand for 54 seats, the Congress has quietly settled for 25 legislative seats. And for the by-elections, the party is pleased to get the Kanyakumari Lok Sabha seat. It is learnt that Rahul Gandhi does not mind playing second fiddle as his only objective is to counter the BJP-AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. Rahul, who has visited Tamil Nadu twice in recent times, enjoys a good equation with Stalin who is very confident of the DMK-Congress win this time. Even poll-strategist Prashant Kishor is talking of DMK winning. What makes the fight interesting is the BJP’s Hindutva appeal while in Tamil Nadu it has always been the Dravidian plank for all parties. Fearing backlash, it is learnt that the BJP’s alliance partner AIADMK has advised it not to push the Hindutva agenda. Rahul is likely to campaign extensively in Tamil Nadu, sharing dais with Stalin and address crucial joint meetings. For Rahul, the idea of playing second fiddle is also to revive Congress in Tamil Nadu. Will his bet pay off? Only time will tell.
With election fever rising, poll strategist Prashant Kishor seems to be the man of the moment. Already three major political parties -– Trinamool in West Bengal, DMK in Tamil Nadu, and Congress in Punjab have signed him up. Looks like political parties woo him before they woo the voters. This is the first time Kishor has three states on his worktable. And he has already given his verdict: DMK led by MK Stalin would return to power in TN and Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. More. He has dared to stick his neck out by saying BJP would not cross 100 seats in W Bengal. So one has to wait till May 2 for the final result. But in the past he has had a good strike rate. He shot into the limelight by ensuring Narendra Modi became the Chief Minister of Gujarat for the third time. Post that he worked closely with the BJP for the 2014 Lok Sabha election. His string of success includes the unprecedented victory of the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi for the second time; the YCR Congress win in Andhra Pradesh, and Nitin Kumar’s JDU in Bihar. But, he miserably failed his client –the Congress in Uttar Pradesh’s Assembly poll in 2017. It won only 7 seats against BJP’s 300 plus. Be that as it may, the Punjab Chief Minister Capt Amarinder Singh has accorded him a cabinet rank. A lot is indeed riding on him. The moot point is with such diverse clients does it make him ideologically neutral or is he nursing a political ambition? It may be recalled he did take a political plunge when he joined the JDU in Bihar but it proved to be a short-lived honeymoon.
Like Alice In Wonderland, the Tamil Nadu politics seems to be getting curiouser and curiouser. It all started with Superstar Rajnikant throwing in the towel thereby dashing BJP’s hopes of making significant impact in the upcoming Assembly polls. For MK Stalin of DMK, this announcement was music to ears. But the news of VK Sasikala or ‘Chinamma’, confidante of the late J Jayalalithaa, former Chief Minister, saw both the ruling party AIADMK and the DMK pull a long face. She came out of Bangalore jail after serving four-year term, and entered the fray .So much so, Chinamma was prevented by the very people who prostrated before her from going anywhere near Jayalalithaa’s Samadhi at Marina Beach. At the same time, to keep her in good humour mediators have been holding talks with her nephew TTV Dinakaran to work out a possible merger of his party AMMK with the AIADMK so that they can fight the common enemy DMK. But in a new political twist, Chinamma dropped a bomb, announcing to stay away from politics. The DMK and the Congress spokespersons on the TV channels are saying she must have been pressurized by the BJP! Apparently, local BJP leaders have welcomed the move. In the fast changing political contours, is it advantage AIADMK? Does DMK stand a better chance minus Chinamma? And where does Kamal Hasaan’s party Makkal Needhi Maiam figure?
The Khushboo Gujarat Ki campaign run by the Gujarat Tourism since 2010 has been very effective, giving a massive boost to the number of in-bound tourists. But our Short Post Team discovered a shocking case of tourist alienation – with two Mumbai-based businessmen confiding in about a horrendous experience. It was a different khushboo when they drove down to Jaisalmer in Rajasthan from Mumbai. On return, their car bearing Maharashtra number plate was stopped by the Gujarat police at four different checkpoints. And from the word go it was mindless harassment and heaps of insult. At the first check-post, they were questioned whether they carried drugs, guns or alcohol and then asked to turn their bags upside down. At the second check-post they were asked why they did not cover the top portion of the headlights with yellow scotch tape? At the third check-post, they were fined for not wearing their mask properly inside their car. But, their real nightmare began at the fourth check-post. The cops once again rummaged through their bag and separated an empty liquor bottle. Immediately, they shouted with glee “Milee Gayo”, “Milee Gayo” (got it). Their reactions shocked these two businessmen. The cops forced one of them to sit in the driver’s seat and clicked pictures with an empty bottle on his lap. Then, they were told that now an FIR would be filed; and that they would have to pay a fine of Rs 1 lakh or else they would be jailed. Physically and mentally exhausted because of this senseless extortion the businessmen decided to loosen their purse strings and after which they were allowed to go.
Political parties in Maharashtra are known for not practicing untouchability in politics. But when it comes to the issue of protecting the State’s interest and maintaining Maharashtra’s pre-eminence as the most favoured investment destination then all political parties sink their difference and put up a show of unity. This unity is important as Maharashtra faces tough competition from other States like Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka to bag big projects. A case in point is that of luring Airbus SE, a European multinational aerospace corporation, for its proposed investment of over Rs15,000 crore to manufacture 56 aircraft and helicopters in Maharashtra. Knowing the importance of Airbus’ entry into the state, the ruling Maha Vikas Aghadi government has swung into action. Chief Minister and Shiv Sena President Uddhav Thackeray has written to NCP Supremo Sharad Pawar and Union Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari for taking up Maharashtra’s cause with the Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The government has cited a site in the MIHAN project at Nagpur for Airbus’ proposed investment. Airbus is expected to join hands with the Tata Group for the proposed venture. Incidentally, Nagpur is the home city of Gadkari.
There is nothing striking about this farmer leader who has kept the Modi government on tenterhooks. It seems like he has deliberately cultivated the image of a rustic leader with a green Kisan cap, accompanied by a green-white gumchha and an unkempt beard. The 51-year old Rakesh Tikait, who holds a Master’s degree from the Meerut University, would definitely know what style is, having served in the Delhi Police department as sub-inspector till 1992 and hailing from a high profile family. He quit police force during the farmers’ agitation at Red Fort in 1993-94 and joined the Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) set up by his father Mahendra Singh Tikait, a firebrand farmer leader. Political ambitions took him to contest the assembly elections in 2007 and Lok Sabha in 2014 but he lost both. With the farmers’ agitation regaining momentum (after he broke down on the national television), he has declared the agitation would continue till October 2021. His message to Modi: “We have so far talked about Bill Wapsi (Repealing the three farm laws). What will you do if the youth call for Gaddi Wapsi (removal from power)?” There is a sense of déjà vu listening to this kind of veiled threat.
If Uddhav Thackeray’s instructions to the top officials to work out a plan to have the Mantralaya function in two shifts, and his earlier appeal to the private sector to stagger their office timings come to fruition, the face of transportation, work dynamics, and work-life balance across Mumbai metro region would change. Months ago the BMC, and the Western and Central Railways had offered to rework their schedules during the lockdown itself and asked the State Government to initiate theirs. Apparently after discovering nine infections in the Revenue Department and also seeing the entire entourage of Chhagan Bhujbal hit by the virus, Thackeray set the wheels moving. But the private sector is yet to respond. Thackeray had also told the NITI Ayog about staggered work hours because it may not be within his remit to ask the Central Government offices to stagger their timings. If this does happen, overcrowding on public transport, congestion of Mumbai region’s roads would ease to an extent. But it is a complex task – ministries function in a synergy not perceived by outsiders. Also, the home to station to workplace bus connectivity has to be worked out. Else the solution could be worse than the problem. If only all this had been thought of during the lockdown! A classic case of locking the stable door after the horse has bolted.
Nitin Raut, Maharashtra’s power minister, had come to invite Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray to attend a wedding reception to be held by his family. When the subject of the quick spreading Covid surfaced in the conversation, the minister announced that he was cancelling the reception. Uddhav had cited it as cooperation in fighting the virus and asked the public to fall in line. But it’s a fact that the CM’s warning that only the mask-less public defying Covid protocols would force another lockdown in Maharashtra hasn’t found immediate traction. Other leaders seem to be entirely on another page. Thousands thronged the streets as the convoy of Minister Of State For Forest Sanjay Rathod reached Pohradevi temple in Washim district on 23rd February. BJP leader, Dhananjay Mahadik’s son’s wedding in Pune on 22nd February not only had 1,000 guests (prescribed limit being 100) but was also graced by two men of eminence in politics — Sharad Pawar and Devendra Fadnavis. To be generous, these two worthies may not have known that the protocols were being ignored. And it was a day prior to Pawar’s tweet that informed that he was cancelling all public events. Reportedly, the Pune city police has booked Mahadik and two others for violation of Covid norms. In a related development, the State’s Food & Civil Supplies Minister Chhagan Bhujbul who attended wedding of NCP MLA Saron Ahire along with Pawar has tested positive.
Once, the Congress was ideologically different from the Shiv Sena. It disapproved of the Sena’s aggressive style of politics — though it couldn’t exactly stop the saffron party. The Congress would often complain about the alleged street violence of the Shiv Sena and the MNS – and their penchant for public warnings. After partnering with the adversary to form the Maharashtra coalition government, the Congress seems to have soaked in Sena’s methods. Its newly appointed chief Nana Patole has announced that if the two actors — the Big B and Akshay Kumar — do not tweet against high petrol price (as both had tweeted against price rise during UPA-2 regime), they would not be “allowed” to shoot the films they act in nor will their films be screened. Exactly the methods of the Sena in the past and a practice which the MNS continues to follow. The Congress, hurting at the status of being a junior partner in Maha Vikas Aghadi where the third party is the assertive NCP, wants to be seen as being muscular and has learnt how to: by being like the Sena. Interestingly, Patole, as Speaker of the Assembly, was in a constitutional position and ensured the Assembly functioned under Democratic rules. What a transformation by Patole overnight!
A fierce ding dong battle is playing out in West Bengal and Maharashtra. In WB, Governor Jagdeep Dhankhar and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee have been at loggerheads from Day One. During the Lockdown, the Governor wrote to Didi why she was deliberately breaking all the curfew protocols recommended by the Centre. A few days later she asked the Governor to refrain from summoning senior officials without her knowledge. Recently, when BJP President JP Nadda’s convoy was attacked, the Governor told Mamata “Don’t play with fire.” This verbal duel continues unabated. Hopefully, things should cool down after the state elections in April-May this year. In another battle, Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari — who administered the oath of office to the Devendra Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar government which lasted for three days — is taking on Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray and NCP Supremo Sharad Pawar. Pawar took pot-shot at the Governor for having time to meet film star Kangana Ranaut but not the farmers. Also, the recent controversy around the Maharashtra governor being denied permission to use state plane has added to the bitterness. Now an editorial in Sena’s mouthpiece Samna says the Governor is acting like the BJP puppet and should be called back by the President. This tug-of-war battle brings to fore the old debate whether the Governor’s Office should be abolished.
This one is interesting. Veteran Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad retired from Rajya Sabha as the Leader Of Opposition on February 15, 2021. All politicians in the house praised his outstanding contributions. In his farewell speech, Azad shocked and surprised a whole generation when he said he was among the fortunate people who never went to Pakistan. “When I read about the circumstances in Pakistan, I feel proud to be a Hindustani Muslim,” he said. His remarks on visiting Pakistan comes as a sharp contrast to the Secular Fundamentalists like Mani Shankar Aiyar who would have lost count of how many times they visited Pakistan. And Iyer’s interaction with the Pakistani media would often leave many in India stunned and embarrassed, especially when he told Pakistanis: “The first and the foremost thing is to remove Modi (Modi ko hatana hoga). Only then can the talks (between India and Pakistan) move forward.” On the other hand, Azad has always been a picture of grace and dignity, urging all to build compromises and understanding instead of reinforcing antagonism.
Everything is fair in love and law — and loyalty is not static but flexible. None other than Narayan Rane epitomizes this saying. Thanks to the blessings of Shiv Sena Supremo Bal Thackeray – Rane grew from strength to strength. From a corporator to legislator to Chief Minister, his rise was meteoric. However, Thackeray’s decision to appoint his son Uddhav as Executive President of the Sena changed the equation, forcing Rane to quit the saffron party and join the Congress. Here, he was made a minister – but not the CM as promised. Irked by the deceit and denial, Rane floated his Swabhimani Party. The new party didn’t do too well – and he subsequently joined the BJP that has placed him in the Rajya Sabha. His new mentor is Home Minister Amit Shah, who visited the state to inaugurate the SSPM Medical College at Kudal in Sindhudurg. Shah’s visit has created ripples – with Rane predicting that the Maha Vikas Agadhi government’s days are numbered now. Interesting times for a party, which despite winning 105 seats is sitting in the Opposition bench.
The timing behind the ongoing war of words between Maharashtra and Karnataka leaders on the long-pending border dispute is politically as significant for the Shiv Sena as it is for its former partner Bharatiya Janata Party in the run up to the 2022 elections for the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) — India’s richest civic body. With its renewed demand to incorporate Karnataka’s Marathi-speaking areas into Maharashtra, the Sena has unleashed a frontal assault to retain its supremacy in the BMC, which the party has been ruling for over 28 years. Joining forces with the saffron party are the Congress and the NCP, its partners in the Maha Vikas Aghadi government in the state. The Sena is hoping to stand tall with its espousal of the Marathi Manoos plank – even as it embraces the ‘Secular’ programmes of its partners, and reaches out to the Gujaratis. This leaves the BJP treading on a tricky tightrope: the BJP-ruled Karnataka’s loud opposition to the demand will only provide political ammunition to the Sena-led alliance. The BJP’s Mission Mumbai 2022, which seeks to end Sena rule and elect its own mayor, must now make sense of the new duel “Mazi Mumbai vs Mumbai Nammde’’.
Sharad Pawar is a good negotiator. Despite some NCP leaders prematurely seeking that Congress “do something soon” to prevent Sena-BJP resuming charge of the Maharashtra government in 1999, he kept Congress on tenterhooks till it accepted a power-sharing formula. He had told confidants then that had it been left to him from the start, the NCP would have got the CM’s post and the Speaker’s too, leaving some crumbs for the other. It is likely that hard bargaining for the Assembly’s Speaker’s post is in the offing. With Nana Patole quitting speakership on being appointed Maharashtra Congress President, the Speaker’s post has once again become a coveted target for all three parties constituting the government. The Maha Vikas Aghadi comprising Shiv Sena, NCP, and the Congress are not going to let go of an opportunity to grab it. Would the consummate Pawar, hailed as the architect of the coalition MVA, ensure his party gets the Speakership? Despite being partners with some give and take between them, except for the Congress making some noises against the Sena, the government has been functioning fairly in the Covid19 environment. Patole’s exit has clearly unsettled the equations. Now the fun begins.
BJP leader Dr Subramanian Swamy holds many incredible records. One important one: he has not lost a single defamation case. So much so that even international bodies like the United Nations are wary of taking him on. In fact, the services of Under-Secretary-General Adama Dieng were terminated for misattributing quotes to Dr Swamy. An elated Dr Swamy tweeted: “UN Under-Secretary General Mr Adaams Dieng, who defamed me in a media release by recycling my cut and spliced statement on CAA put out by Pakistani owned TV stn VICE, was terminated from UN post by “Good bye Sweetheart” letter from UNSG. I thank FS Shringla and UN Rep Trimurti.” Now, he has sent a defamation notice to Indian Express newspaper for publishing a column by Pakistani journalist Khaled Ahmed. Dr Swamy said that the Pakistani journalist wrote a lie that he said that Muslims are not equal citizens of India. This fake news was first published in a Canadian based TV known as Vice News owned by a Pakistani – and the United Nation’s Dieng issued a Press Release based on this fake news. Incidentally, even BBC carried the same news and reportedly a legal notice has been sent to them too.
Buzz in the Karnataka BJP is that search is on to find a successor to replace the current Chief Minister BS Yediyuruppa who despite crossing the 75-years-age cut-off limit has continued to hold the CM’s post. The party insiders claim he has lost the TINA (There Is No Alternative) Factor as discontent brews among the ministers, the party men, and the RSS parivar. The rift between Yediyuruppa and BL Santhosh, BJP national general secretary (organisation) has been widening. After the recent cabinet reshuffle, Yediyuruppa was forced to change the portfolios in Day Two as Santosh raised hue and cry over portfolio distribution. Even though the Karnataka assembly elections are still two and half years away, a section of party has put up a strong argument for a new face to be the leader. Yediyuruppa’s clout, according to the insiders, is eroding and the leadership is not ready to sacrifice the BJP government because of him.
The sweet scent of the ‘halwa ceremony’ at the Finance Ministry still lingers. N Sitaraman, the Finance Minister, ladled out the halwa to the face-masked officials and employees involved in the Budget preparation. This ritual marks the moment when the documents are green-flagged for printing. The final and irrevocable “go”. Not a line is added, not a line can be removed thereafter. Employees – each one involved, lock themselves in after the halwa is served till the printing is completed and sealed bundles are sent off to the Parliament House to avoid any leak of the Budget details till it’s read out in the Parliament. This time it could be “printed” in the pdf format. Yet, the media wouldn’t let go of its tradition of speculating on what the Budget may contain even after this. And lobbies often talk to the media to hopefully steer policies. The FinMin, however, has abandoned the practice of printing it on paper as in the past. The Budget, as the media have reported, has opted for a paperless Budget. But the futile speculation in the media continues. After all, who knows, at least one stone may hit the mango to boast about later!
Bonhomie between Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banejree and Shiv Sena President Uddhav Thackeray was on full display at the recent meeting of opposition chief ministers when Mamta praised Uddhav for doing a great job despite the BJP’s repeated predictions that the Maha Vikas Aghadi government will not last. Mamata also responded to Uddhav’s call for whether Humein darna hai ya ladna hai?” (Do we have to fear or fight)? She thundered: “Ladna hai (we must fight). Shiv Sena’s announcement to contest West Bengal assembly elections also comes with a tacit understanding. Sena proposes to contest polls on the Hindutva plank, working as the Team B of Mamata just as Asaduddin Owaisi’s All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen alleged to be the BJP’s Team B. Sena is insignificant in West Bengal but the Trinamool Congress insiders and the Shiv Sena think tank believe that it may split the BJP votes and thereby help Mamata in a small way. Although there will not be any formal alliance but voters may shout Jai Maharashtra and Jai Bangla together for the first time.
Since 2014 the BJP has been trying very hard to make inroads into Tamil Nadu but found no takers – perhaps because its rivals have so far been successful at associating it with the Hindi chauvinism. This state, which rotates power between two parties AIADMK and DMK, has had three legendary leaders – M Karunanidhi, MGR and J Jayalalitha – running the State for almost 50 years. Now with no charismatic Dravidian leaders to turn to, the field seems to be open to a leader like Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He is widely accepted in TN owing to his credentials as a crusader against corruption. Some impact is also being created by the ever-resourceful RSS ideologue S Gurumurthy, who is helping the BJP press the right button in TN. His research came in handy when the Modi government went in for demonetisation. Guru managed to convince the legendary star Rajnikant to enter politics. Thailava as he is popularly known said yes – and was all set to kick off his spiritual-political odyssey but for an unfortunate hospitalization and a health condition that stopped him in his tracks. Thailava has decided not to launch his own party or contest 2021 elections. In a new development, with Sasikala Natrajan, (confidante of the late J Jayalalithaa former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu) completing her jail term, the state’s political landscape once again changes.
Despite veteran leader and former minister Kapil Sibal’s repeated criticism of the Congress party’s present state of affairs, chorus is growing louder for Rahul Gandhi to take over as the party president. The party veterans have taunted – without directly naming Rahul – that this move may not necessarily help revive the party or regain the past glory. But that has not stopped the party’s state leaders from kicking off the Come Back Rahul Ji campaign. Rahul had a major say in the recent appointments of the state-level or city-unit chiefs in various states, including Maharashtra. Senior party leaders may continue questioning the election process for the new president, but the local state leaders are unanimous that time is opportune for Rahul to take over as he is the sole leader who is fearlessly taking on the troika of PM Modi, the BJP and the RSS. So the scene shifts to the states for a moment.
Eyebrows were raised when NCP MP Supriya Sule said her father and the party chief Sharad Pawar is most unpredictable. Well this view is widely shared not just by the NCP leaders but also by Pawar’s friends across parties. Be it his unilateral announcement to support the BJP to avoid fresh elections (even before the assembly poll results were announced in October 2019) or his support to the Modi government on the issue of conflict with China – the unpredictable Pawar was evident to all. Pawar also said one must not politicise matters related to national security, which irked the Congress and other opposition parties. Despite all this, Pawar is widely seen as the leader who can bring together the opposition and the like-minded parties to take on Modi led BJP in the next general elections. Though he has denied the speculation that he was eying the post of the UPA chairperson. Pawar stood out again when he welcomed the Supreme Court’s ruling to stay three farm laws and appoint a four-member committee to talk to the agitating farmers. The BJP’s estranged ally Akali Dal claimed the new move as an ‘’unacceptable joke’’ while the Congress alleged that it was a partisan panel which could not be expected to be a “neutral arbiter.” Pawar’s close confidante in private admits that he would have held the PM’s post long back had he not been unpredictable! Yes, the breaking away from the Congress two decades ago was unpredictable too.
TRENDS & VIEWS
Editor’s Note: Big Punch In Small Pack
It is the Third Anniversary of Short Post and as a news media startup launched during the Covid-19 pandemic it certainly feels better than good to find ourselves where we are today. Here, I must cite the unstinted support of our seasoned contributors, all senior editors in the country, who brought a great degree of maturity and sagacity to the Short Post newsroom. But for them, our tagline “Authentic Gossip”, an Oxymoron, would not have matured viably. Our user numbers may be small but our stories have created the desired impact among people who matter — decision makers and influencers. We offer a big punch in a small pack and Short Post with its 225-word stories has been punching above its weight category. Having posted close to 3,000 stories in the last 36 months, Short Post, I feel, is an idea whose time has come.
And this is vindicated by our two marquee advertisers – IDFC FIRST Bank and ICICI Lombard. Both believed in our story and have supported us from Day one. A big thank you to both.
If you look at the media landscape – print, TV and digital — it is a mixed bag. There are job losses as some outfits have closed down while a lucky few were bailed out by large corporate houses. Yes, there is a lot of action in the digital space. However, the entry of corporate houses has raised the question of independence of news media outfits. Sadly, there are just a handful of independent media outfits in the country that are highly respected for their neutrality. At Short Post, our credo is not to take sides, prejudge issues or be biased but, informing readers of behind-the-scenes happenings. In essence, Short Post strives to be a neutral editorial platform — neither anti-establishment nor pro-establishment.
As I said last year, disruptions in the media world are moving at a fast and furious pace. Technology is playing a very big role in how content is generated and consumed. But, we are neither alarmed nor perturbed as it is all a part of the evolution process. What gives us comfort is that AI is unable to create original gossipy content. And that is the news arena where we have achieved a distinction.