Unstinted support by the Shiv Sena (UBT) of the Freedom Religion Bill in the Maharashtra legislature has once again renewed political speculation about Uddhav Thackeray’s next likely stance regarding the BJP. His silence on the coming two assembly byelections in the state has already created unease within the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state Congress unit has declared that it will consider fielding candidates in the two constituencies, one of them Baramati, represented by late deputy CM Ajit Pawar. His wife Sunetra, who has taken over his place in the state cabinet, will contest from Baramati. Her sister in law and NCP(SP) leader Supriya Sule has announced that her party will not challenge Sunetra. However, that decision has been seen as a family matter. But the Congress party is sore since it was taken without consulting its state leader Harshwardhan Sapkal. Even earlier, the Congress was ignored by the other two MVA partners when it was decided that veteran NCP leader Sharad Pawar will be sent to the Rajya Sabha. This was a BJP strategy to compel the MVA to agree to elect the remaining six Mahayuti candidates unopposed. Hence, rather than alienating the Hindutva vote bank, Uddhav decided to support the Religion Freedom Bill, which will soon become a law with state governor’s consent. He ignored the Bill’s criticism by the NCP(SP), the Congress and the fringe Opposition parties. Uddhav’s stand has made MVA uneasy once again but it will hardly reflect in the state polity, it is felt.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar is facing an unprecedented embarrassing situation in his 57-year long political innings. Never having lost a single election, Pawar was tacitly acknowledged across Maharashtra’s political spectrum as the controlling pivot in deciding which candidate will win which election, till a decade ago. Unfortunately for him, the end of his Rajya Sabha term on 2 April is enveloped into suspense about his returning to Parliament. The present party statistics in Maharashtra assembly makes it clear that the combined Opposition, the so-called INDIA Bloc, can elect just one candidate to the Rajya Sabha, only if there is no cross-voting. Once upon a time, Pawar was the master of such manipulations. But now, he will have to depend upon the Shiv Sena faction led by Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress party to secure the required 38 votes in the 288-member lower house. The wish has been questioned following Shiv Sena (UBT) MLA Varun Sardesai’s unambiguous assertion that his party will not give up its claim for the seat, Pawar or no Pawar in the ring. Varun is extremely close to Uddhav and his son Aaditya Thackeray. Hence his rigid stand has sent warning signals in the INDIA camp as the Congress party, too, has been unable to declare its support of Pawar. Against this backdrop, Aaditya’s absence from two successive INDIA meetings to discuss the issue is considered vocal enough. All in all, Pawar is made an unwilling player in the power struggle.

Former Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray is among the nine retiring members of the Maharashtra Legislative Council. Their term expires on 14 May this year. While resigning as chief minister way back in 2022, Uddhav had announced that he would quit the council as well. However, he did not give up the membership and was trolled for this change of heart. As the nine seats are elected from the lower house, the Opposition will have to plan its strategy cautiously as the ruling BJP-Sena (Shinde) alliance has a massive majority in the assembly. It has about 240 members on its side in the house of 286. Given this current arithmetic, the quota of 36 is likely to be fixed to get elected to the upper house. While the Opposition can send one candidate through the goal post easily, the moot question is who that individual will be. Uddhav had earlier indicated that he would like to return to the council. However, of late, there is complete silence in the Opposition camp on this sensitive issue.  The other prominent names in the list include Neelam Gorhe, currently deputy chairperson of the house. After aligning with the Shiv Sena led by deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde, she is hopeful of staging a comeback. Indications are that the matter will be resolved through understanding, so that the election happens unopposed. Still, last minute manoeuvring is likely. Hence, both sides have kept their fingers crossed.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar’s Rajya Sabha term ends on 2 April 2026. The present arithmetic in the Maharashtra legislative assembly is such that just one Opposition candidate can go to the upper house of Parliament if all these parties field a combined nominee. The NCP led by Sharad Pawar himself, the Congress and the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray are the three major Opposition parties though their collective strength is just enough to win one seat. Provided that there is no cross-voting. Previous experience shows that Maharashtra CM Devendra Fadnavis can upset the Opposition apple cart as and when he wishes. It is not clear if he will use the same strategy against Pawar who is respected across the political spectrum. Pawar has declared repeatedly that he will not contest any future election. But it is viewed as an announcement by a politician and hence not taken at face value. Most of the earlier Rajya Sabha elections have been unopposed except for a few occasions. As of now, Opposition parties have not indicated their inclination. Hence, the rumour mill is quite active. Incidentally, Pawar’s health is a matter of concern, given that he is 86. His decision not to be present in Parliament when the Union budget was being presented has added to the speculation about his future plans. His nephew Ajit Pawar’s accidental demise has resulted in upsetting all previous equations and Pawar’s next move will prove crucial in that scenario. It is eagerly awaited.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena boss Uddhav Thackeray have been totally decimated in the election to 29 municipal corporations across Maharashtra, raising a question mark about the next turn in their political journey. Just half a dozen of the civic bodies marked any presence of the parties led by the two prominent leaders, leaving the field open to the saffron outfit, led by chief minister Devendra Fadnavis. The other casualty is Pawar’s nephew Ajit, who took on the BJP for no obvious reason and has been mauled badly in his own stronghold, Pune city and district. A few select bodies like Kolhapur, Vasai-Virar, Malegaon, Chandrapur, Parbhani and Amaravati have shown electoral wins of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) candidates, though most have been elected on their own steam. The MVA is now rudderless in the state and the voters, too, have expressed their displeasure on its negative campaigning, which was replete with abuse and curses. On the other hand, Fadnavis and deputy CM Eknath Shinde continuously harped on the theme of development. The results have conclusively shown that Uddhav’s clout is now confined only to Mumbai, of course lesser than earlier. As far as Sharad Pawar is concerned, he neither campaigned nor addressed any rally. His inaction is blamed for the pitiable condition of his party. Thus, both leaders will have to explain to their cadres what plan of action is in their mind.

The entry of Rashid Mamu, former mayor of Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, in the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has stirred a hornet’s nest because prominent Sena leaders from that city have publicly objected to this development. Local Sena leaders complain that this entry has been engineered by former legislative council opposition leader Ambadas Danve without consulting them. Former MP Chandrakant Khaire, a close loyalist of Balasaheb Thackeray, has reminded the Sena leadership that Rashid Mamu was among those who had pelted stones at a Sena procession taken out to demand a Uniform Civil Code some years ago. Khaire has declared that he will make efforts to ensure that Mamu is not selected by the party to contest the civic election from Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar. Mamu was admitted into the Sena at Matoshri in Mumbai in presence of Uddhav and Danve. Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, too, has castigated Uddhav Sena for welcoming Mamu in its fold. In a stinging indictment, Fadnavis has said, “It is extremely painful to see that such an individual (Mamu) has been admitted by the Sena (UBT). This decision has been taken by the son of Hindu Hriday Samrat Balasaheb Thackeray for gaining votes. This type of appeasement of licking somebody’s shoes for political benefit makes me very sad.” The CM has warned his erstwhile ally that patriots and nationalists will not pardon the Sena (UBT) for such decisions.    

Psephologists and political analysts have started gearing up in Maharashtra where various municipal corporation elections are scheduled on 15 January. Expectedly, the initial focus is on making predictions about the number of seats likely to be won by the ruling saffron Mahayuti, led by the BJP, in Mumbai. The fight for the BMC will be thus mainly confined between the BJP and the alliance of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (Sena), led by the cousins, Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. The first such prediction has been posted by Amitabh Tiwari of ‘Vote India Vibe.’ According to him, the Mahayuti can win up to 114 seats in the 227-member civic body, followed by the Sena alliance at around 80. The basis for this estimate is the voting pattern witnessed in the assembly election held a year earlier. The Mahayuti had won almost 240 seats in the 288-member house. The other factor in reaching this conclusion is the demographic profile of Mumbai. As of now, the Congress party has decided to go it alone in the election, underscoring the possibility of a split in the opposition vote. More such ‘surveys’ are expected to tumble out in the next two weeks, about Mumbai and other major cities like Pune, Nagpur and Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar.

Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has consciously made clear distinction (course correction) for BJP’s further growth in the state. With elections for over 29 municipal corporations, a higher number of municipal councils and even more local self-bodies due imminently, Maharashtra’s Chanakya has put his party first, over alliance considerations. During the 2024 Lok Sabha polls political alliance-Dharma exuberance saw BJP suffering sharp losses in Maharashtra, down to a single digit victory figure of nine MPs despite contesting 28 seats as against the tally of 23 enjoyed in 2019 after pitting 25 candidates back then. The Sena similarly won 18 of the 23 seats it contested in alliance with BJP in 2019. The bifurcated Shiv Sena faction under former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray (UBT) contested 21 seats in 2024, sending only nine MPs to parliament. Just before the subsequent state assembly elections Fadnavis was anointed ‘Maharashtra’s Sarvashri’ by Union Home Minister Amit Shah. Fadnavis micromanaged the whole process, putting up BJP candidates to include Nilesh Rane, Shaina NC to contest even as alliance partner Shiv Sena candidates (deputy CM Eknath Shinde led party). The result was an overwhelming victory for the Mahayuti alliance, with BJP bagging 132 by itself, the NDA alliance securing 235 out of 288 assembly seats in all. And yet, post facto analysis of the Lok Sabha debacle clearly revealed to Fadnavis that alliance partner NCP’s vote share (led by deputy CM Ajit Pawar) did not transfer to BJP candidates. Now, Fadnavis has made it clear that no micromanagement, political exuberance will be shown in an each-party-for-itself political showdown though alliance understanding will decide seats to be contested in the civic polls. Poaching of Eknath Shinde’s men in Thane by the BJP and Ajit Pawar’s recent political embarrassments only point in this direction.

While love and pride for Marathi is the basis of both Shiv Sena factions and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), the same factor can play a decisive role in determining the final seat sharing between cousins Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. Both have held repeated meetings to hammer out a solution, which still seems elusive as both are trying to claim certain civic constituencies in Mumbai having predominant Marathi-speaking population. This also covers nearly two dozen civic wards which were won by the Sena (UBT) in the last municipal election. Given the possibility of an electoral understanding, MNS leader Raj Thackeray, too, is learnt to be desirous of fielding his candidates from these areas, for the same reason. At present, the Sena (UBT) is a decimated force in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) since most of its elected corporators have joined the Sena faction led by deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde. Their wards, too, are on the bargaining block, demanded by both sides. In any case, MNS has a sizable presence in at least 30 wards. Assessing the overall scenario, Uddhav drove to Raj’s Shivaji Park residence on November 27 in a bid to take the talks further. As the Congress has refused to accept MNS in the Maha Vikas Aghadi fold, it will be a tough challenge for the cousins to decide their future course of action. Moreover, the Marathi factor has also potential to influence the outcome of the election for the most affluent civic corporation in India.

The coming local body election in Maharashtra has forced the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi partners to face a Hobson’s Choice, giving indications that the BJP-led Mahayuti will have a smooth sailing, thanks to the likely vote division in the opposition camp. The already decimated Congress party has declared that it will not team up with the Shiv Sena (UBT) since its leader Uddhav Thackeray has decided to fight the election jointly with cousin Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). If both, the Congress and Uddhav, remain firm on their stand, the Mahayuti’s expectation to win on a platter will become a reality as the opposition’s vote bank will be dented. Realising this possibility, Uddhav has started persuading the Congress to remain in MVA. So far, the outcome is elusive. On the other hand, the Congress has urged senior leader Sharad Pawar to extend his support to it but the NCP(SP) is yet to make up its mind. The Hobson’s Choice, thus, faces the Congress and Uddhav’s Sena. If Uddhav and Raj are not hand in hand, the Marathi vote in Mumbai and Thane will be split, to the advantage of the Mahayuti. If the cousins come together, the Congress and perhaps even the NCP(SP) can think of other options, ultimately harming the MVA prospects, overall. Although all is not well in the Mahayuti camp either, the MVA’s splintering will override the saffron camp’s differences and present it with a massive mandate, it seems as of now.

Top BJP leader Ashish Shelar has been entrusted with the responsibility of the coming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election by the BJP, underscoring the importance of the electoral fight considered the decisive battle for the existence of the Shiv Sena (UBT). Although Andheri MLA Amit Satam was appointed Mumbai BJP chief just a month ago, his predecessor Shelar has been reassigned this assignment given the enormity of the challenge. Of late, Shelar has been mounting one attack after another against Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress party, main partners of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The BJP is determined to wrest the BMC’s control from the arch rival Shiv Sena, which is not joined by Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray. The two organisations are trying their best to lure the Marathi-speaking population’s vote by constantly harping on the ‘outsider’ tag against several BJP bigwigs, who are from Gujarat or north India. This has put the Congress party in a quandary, given the Bihar assembly election voting, forcing its top leaders to stay away from a joint morcha taken out by the two cousins. By next week, the picture is expected to be clear on this count. Nonetheless, the BJP is going ahead as the main constituent of the Mahayuti under the stewardship of Ashish Shelar, who knows Mumbai like the back of his hand.

Strange political formations are occurring in Maharashtra’s sport arena despite appeals from all concerned that the two should not be mixed. At the centre of these developments are veteran leader Sharad Pawar, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, deputy CM Ajit Pawar and Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray, representing the important political parties in the state. Elections to the Mumbai Cricket Association (MCA) and the Maharashtra Olympic Association (MOA) are due in the near future. For the cricket body, Sharad Pawar and Fadnavis are reportedly in tandem. Pawar’s recent praise of Fadnavis for ‘keeping politics out of sports’ has raised many eyebrows. While these four leaders are insistent for election of their close followers on MCA, another shade is added by another deputy CM Eknath Shinde, who is trying to induct Vihang Sarnaik, son of minister Pratap Sarnaik, the buyer of the first Tesla car in India. Ajit Pawar is peeved since his 13-year tenure as MOA president has come under severe criticism by Union minister of state Murlidhar Mohol and BJP MLC Sandip Joshi. The duo had levelled several allegations, all of which have been refuted by Ajit Pawar, who has pointed out that he is dedicated to the MOA’s interests and that the charges are made by politicians, not by any players. These developments have come at a time when the state is gearing up to hold the local body elections, including in Mumbai and Pune, the centres of the two skirmishes.

The absence of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena founder Raj Thackeray at the Dussehra rally organised by Shiv Sena (UBT) has once again created an atmosphere of suspense about two cousins coming together for the coming local body elections in the state. When Uddhav and Raj shared a stage a couple of months ago, those advocating their union were overjoyed, expressing confidence that the duo will sweep the civic election in Mumbai, Thane and in some other important cities. On his part, Uddhav has repeatedly reassured his followers and those wishing the alliance that MNS will stay with his Sena. “We were present on the same dais to tell you that we will be united in the future,” Uddhav said at his rally held at Shivaji Park in central Mumbai. Raj Thackeray’s mansion, Shiv Teerth, is just across the park grounds. Many fervently expected Raj to turn up for the public meeting, which was attended by Sainiks in large numbers despite the slush created by rains. As it became clear that the MNS leaders would not arrive, efforts were made to find solace in Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut’s statement that the other Shiv Teerth, too, should be regarded as ‘ours.’ The Shivaji Park precinct is traditionally described as Shiv Teerth (Pilgrimage to Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj). A few years ago, Raj constructed his second abode opposite Shivaji Park grounds, naming it Shiv Teerth. Hence, the word play, which has failed to end the suspense.

Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray has planned a ‘Sindoor Raksha Abhiyan’ in Maharashtra on Sunday to protest against the India-Pakistan cricket match to be played that day. Sensing the anger still seething in the public mind against the Pahalgam terror attacks, the Sena has decided to push the Modi government in a tight corner by reviving those dark memories. Uddhav has tempered his appeal by alleging that the match is allowed since Union home minister Amit Shah’s son, Jay Shah is chairman of the International Cricket Council. According to an announcement by Sena MP Sanjay Raut, the party’s women’s wing will stage protests on 14 September throughout the state. A couplet, ‘Mera Sindoor, Mera Desh’ will be chanted on the occasion. Later, Sindoor will be sent to Prime Minister Narendra Modi from lakhs of homes to remind him about the Pahalgam attack and that India should not play cricket with Pakistan. “Why is the BCCI so excited to play a match against Pakistan?” Aaditya Thackeray has asked. He has recalled how Pakistan decided to boycott the 2025 Men’s Hockey Asia Cup as the tournament was being hosted by India. Why can’t we also boycott? The BJP has changed its ideology…It is very unfortunate that we are playing a match with Pakistan. BCCI is anti-national,” the former minister and Uddhav’s son has quipped. The BJP has hit back by reminding the Sena (UBT) about the visit of Javed Miandad to Matoshri with a couplet of its own, “My Javed, My Biryani.”    

Over the past week, the electronic media coverage of Maharashtra has been hovering around just two topics. Firstly, the agitation launched by Manoj Jarange Patil to press the demand for granting reservations to his caste is the hottest issue. Secondly, a meeting between two Thackerays – Uddhav and Raj – has dominated the TV bulletins. The impact of the Trump Tariff, the footage of devastating floods, the destruction caused by incessant rains to the crops and all such subjects have been pushed to the backburner. Jarange monopolised the TV time in connection with his agitation, which is recurring many times over. Last year, too, he had come to Mumbai and went back after getting assurances from the government. Over the three years, he has done eight fasts unto death. As far as the Thackeray cousins are concerned, their second meet, which took place at Raj’s Shivaji Park residence, was constantly in the news, before, during and after. Pressing issues like the pitiable condition of roads, internal and highways, received scant coverage. Those active on Social Media have lambasted the TV Marathi channels for this situation. They have expressed chagrin since the matters concerning the nation have been ignored by the electronic media houses. The honchos administering the media have pleaded that it is their duty to reflect what is going on in the state so that public education is done. However, this defence has few takers.

Raj Thackeray’s equidistant relationship with political leaders across the political spectrum in Maharashtra continues to baffle political analysts. His meeting with chief minister Devendra Fadnavis at the CM’s official residence, followed by his son Amit Thackeray meeting up with senior BJP leader Ashish Shelar the very next day, has been raising eyebrows in political circles. Even after officially joining stage with his cousin Uddhav Thackeray, there is no official announcement of the same and Raj continues to hold parleys with Eknath Shinde’s pointsman Uday Samant. Though the first foray of the Thackeray brothers in the BEST credit society has been a cropper, their political strength in the civic polls, cannot be ignored. Incidentally, despite meeting with the CM, Raj continued to be in unison with his cousin Uddhav Thackeray on the issue of raising discrepancies in the electoral rolls that has been strongly flagged by Rahul Gandhi.  The Congress unit from Panvel has found 85,211 duplicate voters in the electoral rolls. Uddhav Thackeray too has asked his cadres to scrutinise the electoral rolls for discrepancies to prevent electoral setbacks. That the brothers are raising the same issue as raised by Congress chief Rahul Gandhi hints at the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) warming up to join the bandwagon of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition. At this juncture, Raj Thackeray’s public meet-ups with leaders from both sides is being viewed as pressure tactics to secure a better deal for himself at the bargaining table for the upcoming polls. Though the MVA coalition has decided to fight the forthcoming local self-government elections separately, Raj Thackeray’s oratorical skills, which commands strong public turnouts at election rallies, could serve as a handy tool for both coalitions.

Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has been given a delicate task for the Vice-President election by being asked to play the ‘Maharashtra Card’ since the NDA’s candidate, CP Radhakrishnan or CPR, will contest as a voter from the state. He became governor of Maharashtra in July 2024 and cast his vote in the subsequent Vidhan Sabha election, hence he has filed his nomination as a voter from the state. This is a fortunate situation for the NDA since the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has used the Maharashtra card twice in the past, defying the NDA fiat. In 2007, the then unified Sena had supported Congress candidate for President, Pratibha Patil, arguing that she belonged to the state. In 2012, Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray had blessed Congress candidate Pranab Mukherjee, who had visited Matoshri to seek the former’s support. Using the analogy, Fadnavis will appeal to the voters, MPs, to elect ‘the candidate from Maharashtra.’  The Uddhav Sena has 9 Lok Sabha and 2 Rajya Sabha members while the NCP led by Sharad Pawar has 8 LS and 2 RS members. Together, both command 21 votes in the V-P election, which seems to become a keen tussle. Hence, the vote bloc from Maharashtra will prove to be crucial. While Fadnavis has been told by Pawar in no uncertain terms that his party will stand by the INDIA Bloc candidate Sudarshan Reddy, the decision of Uddhav is yet to be announced. This became clear after Fadnavis urged him to back the CRP. Looks like Fadnavis will try to wrest some INDIA Bloc votes by using his political skills.

Politics in Maharashtra, nowadays, is dominated by unexpected happenings. The latest to test this phenomenon is Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray and his spokesman Sanjay Raut. The incident concerned is an INDIA bloc meet in New Delhi on Thursday.  Attended by about a hundred top opposition personalities, Uddhav, his son Aaditya and Raut were seen sitting in the last row at the venue, which was Rahul Gandhi’s residence. As soon as the clips of the meet were flashed by TV channels, detractors of Uddhav and his Sena were overjoyed. Seizing the opportunity to throw barbs at the adversary, they demeaned Uddhav for gulping such ‘an insult to Maharashtra’ by agreeing to sit in such an insignificant place. A silent protest was held in Mumbai to ‘apologise’ to Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray in front of his statue for his son’s meek acceptance of this humiliation. Significantly, just a few hours ago, Uddhav had declared in the national capital that no third party would be involved in his Sena’s alliance with cousin Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena for the coming local body elections. Uddhav’s announcement is interpreted as a signal to the Congress party that it should not depend on the Sena (UBT) for the show of strength. Given the way politics in Delhi is played, deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena has lost no time in capitalising on the incident. A retaliation by Uddhav is on the cards.

Bungalow No 5, Sunehri Bagh Road, is the Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi’s new official address. With voter fraud as the main menu of the house warming, Rahul played the host at his new residence on August 7 evening. His mother Sonia and Priyanka let him have all the spotlight and attention. He was seen interacting with all guests. Congress allies like Dr Farooq Abdullah of the National Conference and UBT Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray and his wife Rashmi were among the guests.   He made a PowerPoint presentation to top opposition leaders on the “vote theft” in Karnataka — the one that he had done for the press earlier. Rahul claimed that internal surveys conducted by the Congress had projected wins in 16 of Karnataka’s 28 Lok Sabha seats, but the party ended up winning only 9. He used this discrepancy to allege “definite voter fraud,” once again pointing fingers at the Election Commission. Experts feel this line of reasoning is deeply flawed. Internal polls are neither transparent nor independently verified, and often reflect the optimism of campaign teams more than ground realities. If internal polls were a foolproof benchmark for electoral outcomes, then by that logic, the BJP should have cried foul for not crossing the 400-seat mark it had projected. He questioned how the BJP, despite completing two terms at the Centre, managed to secure a third consecutive win. “Anti-incumbency hits every party in every democracy,” he said, suggesting that the absence of such sentiment pointed to manipulation. The absence of anti-incumbency is not proof of fraud. Voters re-elect governments when they perceive stability, delivery, and leadership, particularly in the absence of a compelling alternative. India has seen this before under leaders like Nehru and Indira Gandhi, just as Germany did under Angela Merkel.

The political reunion of the Thackeray brothers — Raj and Uddhav Thackeray — has disturbed political calculations in the state forcing parties to reassess and redraw their political strategies as per the new ground realities. The direct impact of this reunion is obviously on Eknath Shinde, who officially holds the Shiv Sena party name and flag, and is eyeing the same pie of the Marathi manoos vote bank, that is now facing consolidation under the Thackeray brand. Shinde air-dashed to New Delhi in the middle of this assembly session to meet Union home minister Amit Shah. Shah is believed to have sought his opinion on how to deal with the Thackeray reunion in the forthcoming polls and if launching an attack on them could prove helpful or counterproductive. Shah is also said to have shared details of local surveys conducted by his party to assess the atmosphere post the Thackeray brothers reunion. Shinde, who is upset with the BJP local leadership, is also said to have shared his concerns about his minister receiving income tax notices, funds for his ministers being curtailed, and his party being kept away from power equations.. Analysts feel that the BJP could delay the elections in a bid to diffuse the strong buzz that the Thackeray brothers have successfully generated around the Marathi language issue. The BJP is keen to gain power at the BMC with vital projects like Dharavi redevelopment and other redevelopment projects unfolding in the city.

In the atmosphere of levelling unfounded allegations, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut is now tasting his own medicine following a serious charge made against him by a BJP spokesman. Raut is seen time and again, day in and day out, on TV channels, making some claims or allegations. His latest such utterance is about deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde’s unscheduled Delhi visit, incidentally on the Guru Pournima day. Raut said Shinde had gone to the national capital suddenly to touch the feet of his mentor, Union home minister Amit Shah and to seek the chief ministership again, which he had vacated after the Maharashtra assembly election late last year. Owing to persistent reports that Shinde is sore ever since he had to accept the deputy CM post, Raut’s allegation was widely reported. However, BJP spokesman Ram Kulkarni has caught Raut unawares with a counter-charge. Kulkarni said that Raut had called on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi a few days ago to urge him to forestall the handshake of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. The statement by Kulkarni has the backdrop of the impending civic elections, including in Mumbai, soon after the monsoon. If the Thackeray cousins fight the elections jointly, it could have some impact on the outcome. Raj has maintained silence on the issue but Uddhav has repeatedly emphasized that their alliance is solid. Hence Kulkarni’s charge is seen as an attempt to checkmate Raut at his own game.

Three days after their joint rally at Worli, the Thackeray brothers bounced back on the streets, forcing the BJP and even Eknath Shinde on the backfoot. Their cadres turned up in large numbers to showcase Thackeray’s street strength at Mira Road, on the outskirts of Mumbai, which is emerging as the laboratory for polarisation of identity and communal politics. What Raj Thackeray lacks in political strength of numbers — he has zero legislators or corporators — he made up with his street-smart strategy, as he had vowed at the joint rally.  Both Thackeray’s stayed out and kept mum, letting cadres to defy midnight detainment by police, take train to outwit police and successfully put the BJP on the mat on the Marathi issue. Eknath Shinde’s minister Pratap Sarnaik, who tried to participate in the MNS showdown, was booed and forced to retreat within minutes. That chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had to step in, to distance itself from the critical remarks made by BJP Jharkhand MP Nishikant Dube as also to explain lack of police permission to protest, reflected the party’s failure to handle the Marathi language issue. That this street show is just the beginning can be gauged from the fact that Raj Thackeray has restrained his leaders from commenting on alliance issues. Interestingly, Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde, known to enjoy close equations with Raj, too has restrained his people from criticising Raj Thackeray or his party. Shinde has been very selective in reserving his criticism only for Uddhav Thackeray and showering praise on Raj, post the Thackeray’s joint rally.

Despite much excitement and buoyancy among the cadres and the average Marathi manoos about the reunion of the Thackeray brothers — Raj and Uddhav — after two decades, the road ahead seems far from smooth. Though the Thackeray brothers are yet to announce anything concrete, talking more in cryptic clues and hints, how they manage their seats adjustments will determine the future of the political breakthrough. Even if a political reunion does get announced, as is expected at their joint victory rally on July 5, ironing out the creases may not be a smooth affair. For starters, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) could be uncomfortable with the entry of Raj Thackeray. While the Congress may have warmed up and collaborated with the sober Uddhav Thackeray wing of the Shiv Sena, joining hands with the strident Raj Thackeray of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena could prove a difficult pill to swallow for them. Particularly with Bihar elections on the anvil, enlisting Raj in the opposition coalition MVA could prove difficult. Prithviraj Chavan, the party’s senior leader has already stated that they would deal only with Uddhav vis-a-vis their alliance. Be it about his anti-migrants stance or about loudspeakers in mosques, Raj Thackeray has refused to break bread or make conciliatory notes towards North Indians or the Muslim community. Uddhav’s  Sena, on the other hand, has successfully earned sizable political dividends in the last 2024 assembly elections thanks to his outreach towards the Muslim community. Of the 20 seats won by Uddhav, 10 of them were from Mumbai, particularly its Muslim dominated constituencies like Jogeshwari (E), Bandra (E), Versova and Mahim. While visuals of their cadres from Sena and MNS dining together may make for great photo op, the actual give and take of seats particularly in the Marathi-dominated belt, will determine how this plays out on the ground.

Marathi celebrities and film stars find themselves getting called out for their silence on the Marathi issue. The issue of the imposition of Hindi language for primary students has raised hackles in Maharashtra since it is being perceived as an anti-Marathi decision. While a strong groundswell of protest has got both the estranged Thackeray cousins to rally together on this issue, Raj Thackeray is particularly upset that the average Marathi celebrity, particularly those from the Marathi film fraternity, have failed to stand up and speak about the issue. The fact that the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti government is pushing the initiative, makes it doubly difficult for many to voice their support. Asha Bhosale not just refused to take a stand but also publicly feigned knowing the Thackerays. Raj Thackeray, a known art aficionado, is known to patronise artists, academics and even film stars in a big way. Through his party — MNS film wing — he is known to fight for more theatre screens for Marathi films. He threatened to watch out for those who failed to support the issue. The Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Sanjay Raut specifically called out Nana Patekar, Madhuri Dixit and even Prashant Damle for their silence on this issue. Patekar is known to be a vocal voice on political issues and also known for his proximity with many political leaders.. Even the demigod of cricket Sachin Tendulkar was not spared for his silence. But, fortunately for him, the ex-ICC president chief Sharad Pawar rushed to defend him. Pawar stated that he should be allowed only to hold forth on subjects of his expertise. Now with both the Thackeray’s together, it remains to be seen how many celebrities from the Marathi film industry turn up on the streets for the Marathi language issue.

Kirit Somaiya, who rose up from the ranks to become a MP of the BJP, finds himself isolated within his own party. The fact that a coalition party leader like NCP’s Ajit Pawar could publicly tick him off without any protest from the BJP, clearly highlighted Somaiya’s lack of standing in his own party. The junior Pawar warned him to stay off Masjids since it escalated social tensions after Muslim legislators and leaders across Mumbai protested against his campaign against loudspeakers in Masjids. Muslim legislators across the board approached Ajit Pawar demanding he rein back Somaiya particularly since his campaign against Masjid loudspeakers created outrage in the community. Notwithstanding a token voice of support from Mumbai president Ashish Shelar, forget outrage there was not even a whimper of protest from within the BJP. Somaiya, once known to be close to the party leadership, found himself systematically isolated in the BJP. Despite raising high decibel anti-corruption campaigns against the likes of Ajit Pawar, Hasan Mushrif, Narayan Rane, Sunil Tatkare, Chhagan Bhujbal, Uddhav Thackeray, he and his son found themselves denied party tickets. Almost all his campaigns failed to withstand legal scrutiny after most of those accused either joined the BJP or its coalition partners. Viral videos of him in a compromising position and charges of misappropriation of funds raised for INS Vikrant ship, were the last nail in his political career. But the persistent Somaiya refuses to give up and keeps raising controversial issues like that of illegal entry of Bangladeshis or illegal loudspeakers in Masjids, subjects that the party keeps at an arm’s length.

Finally, the die is cast. Uddhav and Raj Thackeray have reportedly agreed to take out a joint morcha on 5 July in Mumbai against any imposition of Hindi for the students from the first to the fourth standards. Though the Maharashtra government has already announced that a decision in this regard will be taken after consulting all the stakeholders, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) have decided to march hand in hand to express people’s opposition to the proposal. Earlier, the two leaders had announced two different dates for their respective protests. Now, several bodies and opinion makers have supported the proposed morcha, which has injected a new life in the paralysed opposition. Especially, the decision of Thackeray cousins has enthused workers of both the militant organisations which are in the process of pairing for the coming local body elections. As the future of both depends heavily on BMC election, their joint fight can pose a formidable challenge for the ruling Mahayuti alliance. The proposal to make Hindi compulsory is facing increasing resistance. Deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar, too, has opined that Hindi should be taught from the fifth standard. His uncle Sharad Pawar, as is customary, has changed his earlier stance about the advisability of learning Hindi. Sensing the public mood, now he says that the position taken by the two Thackerays is right. In view of the sensitivity of the matter, chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is weighing the pros and cons before he makes any announcement.

Various political parties in Maharashtra are unanimous in opposing the imposition of Hindi in primary schools. The issue of teaching Hindi has provided cannon fodder to the various political outfits, which have started flexing their muscles in view of the coming local body elections. Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has repeatedly clarified that the opposition to Hindi teaching is misplaced but this has had no effect for those who have taken up cudgels against Hindi’s teaching. For the first time in many years, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena led by his cousin Raj Thackeray have expressed similar sentiments on the touchy situation. Those leaders and insignificant political parties, which had been in hibernation after the Lok Sabha election, have suddenly reactivated themselves. In this atmosphere, senior leader Sharad Pawar has once again taken an ambivalent position. Pawar has indirectly supported the teaching of Hindi. In a chat with the media, while saying that Hindi should not be imposed, he has observed that hating Hindi will not be in the interest of the students. Pawar also pointed out that nearly 60% of India’s population conversed in Hindi. Pawar’s position is considered reasonable though with a rider, as usual. Other partners of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi are nixed since they can neither support him nor speak against him. The issue, however, has potential to impact the local body elections.

The meeting of Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis with Raj Thackeray was a clear indicator that the Thackeray brothers are not fighting the local body elections together. It practically nipped in the bud all speculations of the reunion of Thackeray brothers that would have led to the consolidation of the Marathi vote bank particularly in the urban belts of Maharashtra like Mumbai, Thane and Nashik where Raj Thackeray’s party holds some influence. Currently, the loyalties of the traditional Marathi vote bank are split into three between the Thackerays and Eknath Shinde, who has thrown in his weight behind the BJP. Shinde’s key aides like Uday Samant have played a crucial role in getting Raj Thackeray to go with the ruling Mahayuti alliance. While the speculation of the reunion of the Thackeray brothers was received with much warmth and support from the cadres on either side, clearly the consolidation of the Marathi vote bank would not have suited all parties. Definitely not the BJP which is looking to decimate the Shiv Sena particularly the Uddhav Thackeray wing in Mumbai and would not have wanted him strengthened.  The Raj-Fadnavis meeting, coming as it did in the wake of heavy speculation and lobbying from Shiv Sena’s vocal spokesperson Sanjay Raut left no doubt about Fadnavis emerging as the boss in Maharashtra politics. The entry of Raj Thackeray in the BJP-alliance could also prove to be a counterweight against Shinde, whom the BJP is not keen to let him grow stronger in Mumbai post the BMC polls.

Brand “Thackeray”, currently flavours Maharashtra politics over possible rapprochement between cousins Uddhav and Raj appears headed nowhere even as internal party conflicts within BJP leaders on the wrong side of CM Devendra Fadnavis use pretext to settle scores with him. UBT Chief Uddhav Thackeray will announce what Maharashtra wants to hear (UBT Sena and MNS coming together or not) though no formal proposal has emanated thus far, apart from MP Sanjay Raut’s daily proclamations. Factions within BJP inimical to Fadnavis, termed as the ‘Raj Thackeray fan club’ by BJP insiders who insist MNS chief’s political flip-flops render the “Thackerays” coming together talks a non-starter. National BJP general secretary Vinod Tawde, former MLA Sudhir Mungantiwar, Ashish Shelar blame Fadnavis for their respective political downfalls in Maharashtra, are ratcheting up political foreplay to settle scores with Fadnavis as the climax. Tawde eschewed his Borivali MLA constituency to Sunil Mane (2019) who followed suit in favour of Upadhyay (2024) considered to be Tawde’s man. Tawde idolises Raj Thackeray, took MNS Chief to meet Home Minister Amit Shah a few months ago, even hosted Thackeray scion in Delhi hotel. Fadnavis backers in turn include Shiv Sena chief/DCM Eknath Shinde, his top lieutenant/industries minister Uday Samant who also held political parleys with Raj. BJP itself currently weighs options to appoint Mumbai Pradesh President as contenders in fray include MLAs Sanjay Upadhyay, Yogesh Sagar, Sunil Mane. Mane is frontrunner, sacrificed MLA constituency to favour Upadhyay, particularly, since he is the ‘Marathi Manoos’ imminently set to become Vice Chancellor of Atharva (deemed) University that he administers as an educationist whose institute of learning is renowned for having its own robot to boot.

The confusing signals coming constantly from leaders of the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) over the merger of both organisations has stirred the state’s political scene once again, raising some serious questions too. The likely hand shake between Uddhav and Raj Thackeray has been a subject of speculation for a long time. After both suffered badly in the assembly election last year, several local-level leaders from both sides had started exerting pressure on their leaders to team up. The priority was the survival against the BJP onslaught, they had conveyed. As a result, feelers began tossing back and forth. Both sides ensured that they became public knowledge by leaking the contents to the media. The main obstacle in the merger is the leadership issue. Will Raj agree to work under Uddhav and vice versa? While Uddhav is more outgoing, Raj’s followers have demanded that the initiative must come from Matoshri. If and when the alloy happens, what will happen to the so-called INDIA bloc in the state? Uddhav is the leading figure of this formation while Raj has been critical and has intermittently supported the BJP and PM Narendra Modi at critical junctures. Will INDIA bloc leaders accommodate him? None has the clear idea how and when the next turns and twists in Maharashtra politics occur. Nonetheless, the suspense is deepening about the future of certain leaders, too.

Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has started following in the footsteps of veteran leader Sharad Pawar, it seems, since it is becoming difficult to predict his next steps. His many statements are such that they can be interpreted in different ways. The latest instance is the fulsome praise he has heaped on Pawar while at the same time indirectly taunting his both deputies, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. In a media interaction, Fadnavis said that Pawar keeps on working even at this age, never bothering about victory or defeat. There won’t be any match to him, the CM said. Replying to a question about his both deputies, Fadnavis remarked that neither was good in communication. But he hurriedly said he was speaking in the lighter vein. The CM’s observation assumes significance against the backdrop of the all-out support of the Modi government by Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule, who is heading an all-party MP delegation abroad to propagate India’s stand on Operation Sindoor. At the same time, the more frequent dialogue between Ajit Pawar and his uncle is also sending another set of signals. To top it all, BJP leaders have been declaring at every opportunity that their party will fight the coming local body elections in tandem with Ajit’s NCP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena. One definite angle that is emerging is that the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray is most uncomfortable. It has blamed Fadnavis for this situation.

Alliance partners Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena (SS) and the BJP seem to be flexing over seats in the run-up to the prestigious Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections in four months. The BMC is a high-stake election for both — while the BJP’s never had its own mayor thus far in Mumbai, for Shinde it’s a chance to chart out his own space. The BJP is aiming for 150 seats with Mission 150 proclaimed as its mission statement, Shinde is targeting 100 seats in the 227-strength of the BMC where 114 seats are needed to reach a majority. Shinde publicly claims the support of 65 corporators and is actively wooing ex-corporators beyond Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena. Shinde’s Sena has already started holding meetings with current and ex-corporators wooing them with promises of funds for works from his urban development and housing ministry and even from the District Planning and Development Committee (DPDC), where being guardian minister of Mumbai City he is its chairman. Beyond the trappings of power, Shinde also holds the advantage of being an accessible leader unlike Uddhav Thackeray, a fact which he keeps harping on. Uddhav, who held the highest tally of 84 corporators that later extended to 90, had the BJP closely following him with 82 corporators, is now fighting them back with conciliatory notes to his cousin Raj Thackeray, who had seven corporators.

Worried by the absence of any firm signal from other INDIA front constituents, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has decided to once again try the Marathi Card for the coming local body elections, due later this year in Maharashtra. The Congress and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar have time and again expressed dissent with Sena’s outbursts against the so-called ‘outsiders’ and not responded to its call for contesting the elections as a team. Sena MP Sanjay Raut has appealed to the followers to consider the consequences if his party loses the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) and other local body elections. Raut’s impassioned appeal has the backdrop of various recent developments within his organization and the confusing response by Maharashtra Navnirman Sena chief Raj Thackeray to the feelers sent by Uddhav Sena about coming together. The next course of Maharashtra politics will largely depend upon the outcome of the local elections since the clout of various top leaders will be tested through this mandate. The NDA led by chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has announced that these elections will be faced by the BJP, the Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by Ajit Pawar as a team. The inclusion of powerful OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal has added to the vigour of the NDA while the Sena (UBT) is plagued by frequent desertions by some of its ardent workers to the faction led by Shinde. Alarmed by such factors, the Sena (UBT) has decided to reignite the Marathi Card campaign. 

Noted writer Javed Akhtar has invited sharp comments from both extremes due to his statement that If he had to choose between hell and Pakistan, “I will prefer to go to hell.” Similarly, his oblique praise of Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut has evoked different reactions. Akhtar’s frank speech at the launch of Raut’s book “Hell in Heaven” in Mumbai on May 17 became a highlight. Always a target following his speeches, Akhtar said, “Both sides abuse me. But there are also many people who treat me kindly.”  Akhtar observed in the speech that many memorable literary works had been written in prison. His reference was to Raut’s jail custody for a hundred days in connection with a controversial land deal in Mumbai. The book written by Raut describes his experience in that detention. The book is in focus owing to the various claims made by Raut regarding Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah and Sena chief Balasaheb Thackeray. But Akhtar’s finding some similarity between Raut and many giants who went to prison for ideological reasons has angered leaders like Neelam Gorhe, deputy chairperson of the Maharashtra legislative council. She said, “Those leaders were in prison for fighting for the nation’s freedom or such noble causes, not for economic offences.” Akhtar’s remarks have generated ripples across social media and political circles. Expectedly, while some have praised Akhtar for his fearless stand against hate speeches, his critics feel that he is needlessly stoking a controversy.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray, TMC MP Saket Gokhale and famous writer Javed Akhtar will be present for releasing Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut’s latest book in Marathi Narkatla Swarg means Heaven in Hell in Mumbai on Saturday. Even before the launch, the book that describes the experience of Raut’s one hundred days in jail custody has started creating waves. The recent distancing between Pawar and Uddhav, the presence of Akhtar and the TMC’s token appearance in Maharashtra are some of the factors that have heightened the suspense, which is enhanced by Raut with his warning that he could have disclosed much more but has held back. Expectedly, the claims made by Raut are in the midst of political comments. Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, when asked by the media, said sarcastically, “I have outgrown the age of reading children’s literature. In fact, I gave up reading fiction long ago.” He advised the media not to read ‘such’ writings. Raut was arrested in connection with the Rs 1000-crore Patra Chawl redevelopment project by ED in Mumbai in August 2022 under PMLA. From the day he was released from custody by court, he has been levelling one allegation after another against the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union home minister Amit Shah and breakaway Sena faction’s leader Eknath Shinde. There is seldom any response to his outbursts.

In the post-Pahalgam scenario, while the entire Opposition had initially united in support behind the Narendra Modi government, Sanjay Raut turned out to be the first lone voice of dissent. Not content at just demanding Amit Shah’s resignation for his failure as home minister in preventing the Pahalgam attack, Raut also made snide remarks about state call for mock drills likening it to the call for banging of thalis during Covid. He also got his Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena to abstain from the all-party meet called on April 24. In the absence of Uddhav Thackeray, who is said to be vacationing in Europe, for which he earned some brickbats too for not cutting it short, it was left to veteran leader Sharad Pawar to tame him down. Pawar questioned his absence at the first all-party meet. Subsequently, Raut’s tune changed his tone. Not only did he turn up at the following all-party meet on May 8 chaired by defence minister Rajnath Singh and attended by Shah himself but also briefly muted his criticism of the Modi government. But this ceasefire too didn’t last long. He did a volte face on May 11; strongly demanded Shah’s resignation once again and even daring the PM to address an all-party meet. A considerably weakened Uddhav Thackeray, post the Sena split engineered by Eknath Shinde, is said to have given him a free hand. Despite being criticised, ridiculed and even despised for his daily-morning media bytes, earning him the sobriquet of “morning siren” , Raut has emerged as the lone ranger within his party, his alliance and even in the nation as the post-Pahalgam scenario revealed.

Rain or shine, the media in Maharashtra does not tire of reporting about the possible ‘reunion’ of the two powerful families – Pawar and Thackeray. Though there is a surcharged atmosphere across the country from the moment Operation Sindoor has been launched, the pen pushers in the state continue to indulge in speculation, partly fuelled by faceless sources in both factions of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray. Similarly, ever since deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar walked out of the Nationalist Congress party (NCP) set up by his uncle Sharad Pawar, there is no dearth of the news stories, predicting either their distancing or coming closer. Even the most frivolous clue like “Pawar looked at his nephew and smiled” generates a plethora of ‘exclusive’ reports, patting the channels or newspapers on the back, each claiming to be the first with the story. Thus, breaking news is becoming a matter of ridicule since stories like ‘Fadnavis reaches Mantralaya’ also come under this category. The latest revival of such stories has happened since Uddhav has returned from his vacation in Europe while Raj came back to Mumbai just a few days ago. On the other hand, elder Pawar has said that any decision regarding coming together will be taken by Ajit and daughter Supriya Sule, MP. This is a plain truth but touted as a major political revelation. Leaders like Prakash Ambedkar and Sanjay Raut are readily available day in and day out to add to the grist.

While the nation is just recovering from the shock following the dastardly Pahalgam terror attack, the Shiv Sena (UBT) has launched a campaign by criticising the BJP government at the Centre day in and day out. It has gone to the extent of demanding Union home minister Amit Shah’s resignation, holding him responsible for the security lapse. Upon this, Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has been taunted by former Union minister Milind Deora, who is now with the Sena led by deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde. Responding to the repeated criticism of the BJP government in the state and the Centre by Sena MP Sanjay Raut about the delay in teaching Pakistan a lesson, Deora has reminded Raut that his leader was in Europe or wherever enjoying a holiday when Shinde had rushed to Kashmir to reassure the tourists from Maharashtra. Shinde had organised their return journey and extended monetary help where it was required urgently. Deora has pointed out that Uddhav kept on posting X messages but did not send any representative for the all party meeting after the attack. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi cut short his visit abroad and returned to India, Uddhav continued with the vacation, Deora has told the Sena. Incidentally, it has been routine for Uddhav and his family to travel to the cool environs of Europe every summer. So far, there is no response from the Sena (UBT) to Deora’s barb.

A felicitation of Maharashtra’s former chief ministers organized by the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar in Mumbai has become talk of the town for all the political reasons. The ceremony was convened under the banner Glorious Maharashtra and all former CMs of the state were invited. However, senior most among them, Sharad Pawar, did not turn up while DCM Eknath Shinde, too, stayed away, pleading that he had already scheduled other engagements. The absence of the last Congress CM in the state, Prithviraj Chavan, was noticeable. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray is abroad, according to his annual Europe trip routine. Interestingly, CM Devendra Fadnavis attended in both capacities, former and present incumbent. Former Congress leaders Ashok Chavan and Narayan Rane, both with the BJP now, were conspicuous by their presence. Fadanvis said he had created a record by remaining CM for the shortest duration, of 72 hours in 2019. The same record was shared by Ajit Pawar, who was his deputy CM then and is now as well. Fadnavis said Ajit has another record to his credit. “He has taken oath as DCM for the maximum number of times,” Fadanvis quipped. He revealed that the teaming up of the BJP and Ajit’s NCP was incepted within those 72 hours. Fadnavis remarked that people in Maharashtra would have been happy had all former CMs attended. His reference is considered to be aimed at Eknath Shinde. More is expected to be heard soon.

Maharashtra’s political scene is abuzz with renewed discussion on the possibility of the two Thackeray cousins coming together. After MNS leader Raj Thackeray gave such an indication, he received a positive response from Uddhav. Both have said that the interests of Maharashtra are paramount and not any personal grouses. Raj sent out this feeler in an informal TV chat with producer actor Mahesh Manjrekar two days ago. Within hours, Uddhav also responded by claiming that there was no quarrel as such. The discussion has been revised in view of the coming Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election since it will determine the fate of the Shiv Sena under Uddhav as well as MNS led by Raj. In the recent assembly election, both Senas had performed dismally, creating a question mark about their future. Several top leaders from the Sena (UBT) have joined either the BJP or the Shiv Sena led by deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde after the assembly election. If and when the two Thackeray cousins come together, a formidable pro-Marathi political combination can emerge, in Mumbai-Thane belt at least. Over the past week, Raj has spearheaded a campaign to oppose teaching of Hindi in primary schools in the state. Afterwards, the Sena (UBT) also joined the chorus. Hence Sainiks from both the Senas are awaiting any specific signal. Senior leaders from both sides argue that there should not be any problem in uniting on the issue of Maharashtra’s interests. This has revived the shake hand talk.

Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has undertaken a sustained plan to rejuvenate the organisation buffeted by continuous desertions by loyal Sainiks over the past two years. Initially, the campaign will focus on Mumbai since the existence of the Sena under him will depend upon who controls the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the richest civic body in India. The Sena (UBT) has been heading the BMC since 1985. On the other hand, the ruling BJP is equally determined to wrest the control from Uddhav, who is its enemy number one at present. Deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde has been supplementing the BJP’s planning to end the hold of Uddhav in a bid to avenge the treatment he received when he was with him till 2022. As larger planning, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray is periodically wooed to help the saffron alliance to decimate Uddhav. Assessing the situation, Uddhav has decided to activate his lieutenants to launch efforts to inject  new life into the organisation whose soul is the Sainik at the local level. According to the data compiled by Uddhav, there are over 50000 Sainiks and Shakha Pramukhs who are loyal to him and eager to reestablish the Sena’s hold in Mumbai. Over the past few weeks, he has been liaising with the rank and file so as to give shape to the strategy he will adopt for the BMC polls, likely to take place after the monsoon this year.

Maharashtra deputy CM Eknath Shinde currently enjoys a special place at the ruling BJP’s table, thanks to the key role he is scheduled to play in the forthcoming crucial BMC polls for them. A straight victory has evaded the BJP in the Rs 59,000-crore budget civic body till date. Politically too, winning the BMC polls for BJP has become crucial since dislodging Uddhav Thackeray from here would truly deliver a big blow to the Uddhav Thackeray Sena and decimate them. Not surprisingly, Amit Shah held a one-on-one with Eknath Shinde at Mumbai for a good half an hour without his own chief minister Devendra Fadnavis in attendance. Shinde has already got down to the task at hand and has been poaching Uddhav’s key supporters quite regularly. Shinde is using the opportunity to get his way around too. Shinde’s men have started grumbling about budgetary cuts introduced by the finance minister Ajit Pawar that have impacted their ministries. Shinde, who had funded many welfare schemes while as a CM, finds many of his schemes being curtailed, folded up or ignored by the Fadnavis government. His pet scheme, the Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana, still continues, albeit with many restrictions. Shinde also has Sanjay Raut breathing down his neck, comparing him to a goat with nowhere to go and awaiting his butchering. Unlike the Ajit Pawar’s of NCP, who have warmed up to each other, the Sena factions continue to a collision drive breathing fire and fury against each other. 

While Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) revived its campaign for Marathi language, this time targeting non-Marathi speaking bank officials, before chief minister Devendra Fadnavis got them to wind it up, the sober Uddhav Thackeray wing chose to do things differently. In response to Raj Thackeray’s agitation, Uddhav’’s Sena launched a drive to teach Marathi to those unfamiliar with the language. Party scion Aaditya Thackeray explained that this was for those unfamiliar with the Marathi language, particularly those working with MNC’s and those who have recently shifted to the city. For those unfamiliar with the party history, the Thackeray cousins essentially split up over their ways of taking up the cause of the Marathi manoos. In 2003, while Uddhav Thackeray had launched an inclusive ‘Mee Mumbaikar’ campaign to woo the North Indian voters, Raj Thackeray had derailed his campaign by attacking North Indian students appearing for railway exams in November 2003. Post-2006, when Raj Thackeray quit the Shiv Sena and set up MNS, he continued with his tirade beating hawkers, taxi drivers while Uddhav wooed the North Indians. The North Indians today comprise about 20% of Mumbai’s electorate making them an indispensable vote bank for all political parties in the forthcoming crucial BMC elections slated close to Diwali.  While Uddhav seeks to woo them, Raj has been trying to polarise his way into the hearts of the weakened 39 % Marathi manoos voter base. Their divergent views continue long after they have gone their own ways in different political parties. This probably explains why despite extending warm relations with each other in their private family functions, the Thackeray cousins fail to find common grounds for political reconciliation.

The Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is facing a humiliation, this time over the Waqf Amendment Act as Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray has refused to move the Supreme Court over the matter. MVA was already facing tensions since veteran leader Sharad Pawar had stayed over in Mumbai when the Rajya Sabha was voting on the Bill to amend the Waqf Act. When quizzed about his absence at such a crucial juncture, his followers had merely said that his appointments in Mumbai had been decided much earlier. Although both the Sena (UBT) and Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party had opposed the Bill in the Lok Sabha, their sudden change of heart when voting started in the RS had sent out confusing signals. For a long time, no single party or leader can say with certainty what policy Pawar will adopt for a particular matter. Pawar goes ahead with what he feels needs to be done. For instance, his cosy relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi has remained a matter of political intrigue. Similarly, his free access to industrialist Gautam Adani has rubbed the Congress party the wrong way since its leader Rahul Gandhi does not spare a single opportunity to abuse Adani and Ambani groups. Despite this, Pawar is unfazed. It was owing to his unambiguous stand that no Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) could be set up when there was a furore against Adani over the Hindenburg disclosures. Pawar’s stance about the Waqf Act is just one more example and MVA will have to gulp it without complaining.

The Maharashtra legislature’s budget session has concluded amidst a cascade of political allegations and counter-charges, giving ample indications that the battle will not subside any time soon. The main criticism against both sides of the house is that the issues which are not relevant to the common man have taken up more time in the house than they deserve. Similarly, all the three incidents that rocked the legislature repeatedly are old, except for the Nagpur violence. Maharashtra legislature was once described as a model house but of late, incidents of overlooking protocol and foul language in front of television cameras have been occurring frequently. The session was marred by the ruckus over the demand for demolition of Aurangzeb’s tomb. The Opposition tried to corner chief minister Devendra Fadnavis over the thorny issue but could not dent his argument that the tomb was declared as a protected monument by the Congress government long ago. The Opposition also failed to bring the government to its knees over its inability to raise the monthly allowance of Ladki Bahin Yojana from Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,100. The other stormy issue was the tragic death of Disha Salian since the name of Aaditya Thackeray was time and again attempted to be linked with her end. However, Uddhav Thackeray dismissed a question regarding the matter in a few words but the ruling side seems to be determined to highlight the issue at every available opportunity.  

The BJP’s plans to distribute ‘Saugat-e-Modi’ kits to 32 lakh poor Muslims for celebrating the Eid festival in Bihar has been described by its arch enemy Uddhav Thackeray as ‘Saugat-e-Satta.’ Linking this gesture with the upcoming Bihar polls, the former Maharashtra chief minister has posed several questions for the saffron party. He has asked if the scheme will be for the election only or shall continue even later. Uddhav has been sore ever since his Maha Vikas Aghadi government was pulled down by his one-time right hand Eknath Shinde, who became the CM and is now the DCM in the state. Uddhav lambasted the BJP and demanded to know why it had retained green colour in its party flag if it was using slogans like ‘Batenge toh Katenge.’ He reminded the BJP that various of its pre-election assurances were not fulfilled. In a strong rebuttal, Shinde ridiculed Uddhav for not participating in the legislative council proceedings. “Some people only sign the member attendance register and then talk before the media but remain mute in the house,” Shinde said, taking a swipe at his erstwhile mentor. Minister Nitesh Rane, too, joined the firing squad. He said Uddhav had declared that he would resign membership of the council when he stepped down as CM in 2022 but has not kept even his own word. The war of words between the two sides will intensify, according to signals available now.

Just fresh from the resignation of a cabinet minister, and despite fissures within the ruling coalition, the Opposition in Maharashtra has failed to seize the opportunity that has presented itself before them. The resignation of Ajit Pawar aide Dhananjay Munde was not the result of any Opposition campaign but rather it was the result of inter-coalition disputes within the ruling alliance coming to the fore. Munde’s resignation was a result of a strong sustained campaign led by the BJP legislator Suresh Dhas meant to undermine the Ajit Pawar camp. The fodder for the accusation, that the irrigation department was being run on the whims of Fadnavis associate Mohit Kambhoj, was also said to be provided by intra-party elements within the BJP. That the Opposition could not even present a united picture during the traditional post-budgetary press conference was telling about the state of the Opposition in Maharashtra. Uddhav Thackeray addressed it all alone with the Congress missing in action and their senior leaders restricting themselves to issuing statements while Sharad Pawar’s NCP representative Jayant Patil stuck to the TV debates. Uddhav’s decision to go alone in the forthcoming BMC elections, seems to have particularly peeved his coalition partners. Uddhav seems to have lost patience with his alliance partners. In the case of NCP, it seems to be busy dealing with its own internal schism between Rohit Pawar and Jayant Patil that had led to the party yet to declare its leader of legislative party. While Congress seems lost in its internal factionalism with strong leaders refusing to work with the new appointee state party president Harshavardhan Sapkal. Unlike the lacklustre Opposition, the ruling allies, in contrast, are actively working against each other, unsettling the majority Devendra Fadnavis 2.0 government.  

Another twist has been added to the present political suspense in Maharashtra by none other than chief minister Devendra Fadanvis. Reiterating that politics can take any turn, he told an interviewer that his relations with his bete noir Sharad Pawar or Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray were never sour. At the same time, he has discounted the possibility of teaming up with either of them “in view of the present political atmosphere.” Fadnavis said that had Uddhav accepted his telephone call then (in 2019), no rift between his Sena and the BJP would have occurred. Despite this, now both talk with each other, Fadnavis clarified. His assertion is considered meaningful as there are persistent media reports that the BJP is determined to rein in both deputy CMs, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. Cancellation of certain appointments made by Shinde and scrapping of some tenders finalised in the past have led to the discussion that Fadnavis is determined to root out corruption. Against this backdrop, Fadnavis said his mission was to bring about a transformation, not take revenge against anyone. The developments over the past five years have taught him that any type of political alliance is possible, he retorted, without blaming Sharad Pawar or Uddhav directly. In Maharashtra politics, political opponents were treated as enemies earlier but he had made it clear as soon as he took over as CM that his goal was development and not settling political scores.  

What connection can there be between Mercedes/Rolls Royce cars and Maharashtra politics? Apparently, none, but the two car brands have been making headlines in Maharashtra. State legislative council deputy chairperson Neelam Gorhe created sensation when she alleged in Marathi Sahitya Sammelan held in New Delhi last month that a powerful post could be obtained in Shiv Sena (UBT) if its chief Uddhav Thackeray is presented with two Mercedes cars. There were denials, counter-allegations and defamation cases filed. Later, she clarified that her statement was based on ‘observation’ and not on ‘experience.’ Even before the dust had settled, the Chhaava movie’s fallout occurred in the form of an alleged phone call by former Nagpur journalist Prashant Koratkar to Kolhapur-based historian Indrajit Sawant for latter’s certain observations in regard to the demise of Chhatrapati Sambhaji Maharaj due to torture by Aurangzeb. Koratkar has denied that he ever made such a call. Supposedly close to the saffron camp, Koratkar is now being searched for possessing a Rolls Royce car (WB-02 AB0123). But more surprising is the information that the car was owned by chit fund criminal Mahesh Motewar. While Koratkar is still to be traced by the police, Motewar is cooling his heels in prison. The car was blocked by the CBI after his arrest. How Koratkar came to possess it, is another angle for the investigators. Once that mystery is unravelled, another chapter will be opened.

Irrespective of whether Aaditya Thackeray bags the post of leader of the opposition’s post in Maharashtra or not, Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena is pushing the envelope a bit far. Edged out by Eknath Shinde in the polls, Uddhav’s options are limited. Uddhav Sena with 20 seats, Congress 16 and Sharad Pawar’s NCP  10 seats, officially can’t claim the top slot. The Opposition does not even qualify for the LoP’s post, since none of the three parties have the requisite 28 seats or 10% of the 288 seats — the qualifying mark. Technically the ball is in the speaker’s court on whether to allow a Leader of the Opposition in the current situation but CM Devendra Fadnavis is said to be in favour of Aaditya. The other UBT Sena choice, six-time legislator Bhaskar Jadhav is too sharp and strong for the comfort of the ruling party. The soft-spoken Aaditya’s lack of experience — he is just on his 2nd term — could just help the ruling Mahayuti alliance tide over its own weak points. Despite having 237 seats, the Mahayuti has been on the backfoot over issues like reining in populist schemes, women’s safety, internal friction between ruling parties and even demand for resignation of two ministers over allegations of corruption and extortion attempt. Letting in Aaditya also helps snub Eknath Shinde, whom the BJP has been trying to clamp down for nursing ambition for the state’s top job. Shinde’s decisions are being overturned, cancelled or reviewed. A clearly upset Shinde has already started warming up to Sharad Pawar and even met up with Amit Shah to get his way around with Fadnavis. 

The verbal war between the two Shiv Sena factions – Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray — is once again on with the prospects of the local body elections in Maharashtra. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a petition in the matter next week, again kindling the hopes that it will show a green signal for holding the civic elections, overdue for more than two years. As the exodus out of the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray continues towards the faction under deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde, the prospect of the election has prompted many hopefuls to change colour. Taking note of the damaging potential of such an eventuality, Uddhav has launched a scathing attack against his opponents. “Those taking a dip in the Ganga at Maha Kumbh are not going to be exonerated of their sin of taking tons of money,” he told his party workers on the occasion of the Marathi Divas. Hitting back, Shinde has challenged Uddhav to explain why he or Congress leader Rahul Gandhi did not visit the Kumbh if they claim that they are Hindus, too. The sudden tilt by Uddhav towards Hindutva is seen as a strategy to win back the vote bank, once a monopoly of the undivided Sena. Interestingly, the Congress and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar have maintained a stoic silence over the Maha Kumbh debate, isolating Uddhav in a way. The political churning in the state will become fierce after the Apex Court verdict is handed down.