Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s public rally at Shivaji Park in Mumbai on Friday (May 17) will have one more attraction. MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s presence at the crucial campaign meet is expected to benefit the ruling Mahayuti for the polling to be held on 20 May in Mumbai and around. Maharashtra BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule has confirmed the consent of Raj, after calling on him to thank the MNS for its help in Pune and Nashik election campaigning. The six Lok Sabha seats in Mumbai as well as those in Thane and Kalyan have become a prestige issue for both sides, the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi, as the political fates of chief minister Eknath Shinde and Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray will depend upon the outcome. To ensure the saffron alliance’s victory, PM Modi was urged to give time for the Mumbai rally. His acceptance has boosted the spirits of the Yuti. Raj is expected to lambast cousin Uddhav’s decision to embrace the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, as well as his increasing affinity towards the minorities. CM Shinde and Raj jointly plan to breach the traditional strongholds of the Sena (UBT), especially in Mumbai. The partnership will apply to the legislative assembly election slated in October this year. Considering the potential of this cooperation, Raj has been wooed by the BJP and Shinde. He, too, has responded positively, signalling a long term camaraderie.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde is perceived as the main gainer in the Lok Sabha seat distribution among the three partners of the ruling Mahayuti alliance. While the BJP has the largest share of the seats, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) under deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has had to satisfy with just four the undivided NCP had won in 2019. Hence, Ajit’s political future is a matter of discussion now since his adversaries have started painting him as a loser. The Shiv Sena under Shinde has obtained 15 seats, leaving the remaining 28 for the BJP. The NCP (Ajit) will thus fight in Raigad, Dharashiv, Shirur and Baramati constituencies. On the other hand, Shinde has been able to secure Kalyan, Thane and Nashik LS seats, which will witness a close fight. Incidentally, the BJP was trying to obtain these three seats as it was under pressure from its local leaders. Sensing the possible criticism, Ajit had explained that the NCP (undivided) had won four seats in 2019 and would recontest them this time, too. Additionally, he wanted his party to get the prestigious Satara seat won by it the last time, but dropped its claim since a scion of the family of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj was selected to stand there.  Ajit and Shinde have the assembly as the focus of their future politics. Hence, the present arrangement is viewed as an adjustment for the long term strategy to decimate the Congress and Sharad Pawar from the state political scene.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde has selected two Lok Sabha candidates from Mumbai. According to the much-awaited announcement, MLAs Yamini Jadhav for Mumbai South and Ravindra Waikar for Mumbai North-West will take on Uddhav Thackeray’s confidants Arvind Sawant and Amol Kirtikar, respectively. Jadhav and Waikar, both close to Uddhav once, were also on the ED’s radar. Sawant has been elected twice from the constituency which houses all important government offices, including Mantralaya, the Reserve Bank and the Mumbai Stock Market, besides various international financial corporations. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has explained that the Shiv Sena led by Shinde was allotted three of the six seats from Mumbai and accordingly, Jadhav and Waikar are in the fray. Till last month, Waikar was with the Uddhav faction but changed sides recently to join the Sena under Shinde. He will be opposing Amol Kirtikar, whose father Gajanan has been representing the Western suburban constituency for a decade. The third Sena (Shinde) candidate is sitting MP Rahul Shewale, from Mumbai South Central, considered the stronghold of the Sena (Uddhav). His opponent is top Sena functionary Anil Desai, who is considered among the closest to Uddhav. The BJP has fielded ace lawyer Ujjwal Nikam (Mumbai North Central), Union minister Piyush Goyal (Mumbai North) and Mihir Kotecha (Mumbai North East). All fights in Mumbai, thus, will witness a keen tussle.

 The flurry of allegations and counter-allegations has reached another level in Maharashtra this election season. Day in and day out, various leaders slander their opponents, at times using abusive language. Now, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut has made a serious allegation against deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, and his boss, Uddhav Thackeray, has endorsed it. Fadnavis has reiterated his charge that the Thackeray’s Maha Vikas Aghadi government had tried all options to arrest him but failed since it did not find anything incriminating. Even a police commissioner of Mumbai was roped in but in vain, he added. Responding to the charge, Raut said that Fadnavis had ordered phone tapping when he was the chief minister. When the MVA government began investigating the matter, Fadnavis got worried and engineered the fall of the Thackeray government. Though Uddhav who so far had maintained silence about the issue he endorsed what Raut said. Uddhav also questioned the exoneration of various prominent leaders from charges of corruption. He was hinting at the clean chit issued by the Mumbai police to Sunetra Pawar in an alleged fraud case. Uddhav said such questions had been uppermost in people’s minds. Even if no answers are forthcoming, the voters will not forget them, he warned. Only a few days ago, Uddhav’s son Aaditya had used derogatory terms against CM Eknath Shinde. There is no sign of the combat of verbal invectives subsiding.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde has threatened his arch enemy Uddhav Thackeray that various documents concerning properties from London to Lucknow and khoka to container are in his possession and if his predecessor does not observe limits of decency, everything will be made public and then he (Uddhav) will not be able to move around openly. In an interview to Marathi news channel ABP Majha, Shinde castigated Aaditya Thackeray for using intemperate language against him and others.  In an oblique reference to London, the CM said there was no reason for somebody to become restless when relaxing in the British capital was mentioned. “Observe limits, or else all will come out. We have documents about London and 200 acres in Lucknow,” Shinde warned Aaditya. He reiterated that the then Thackeray government had planned to jail top BJP leaders like Devendra Fadnavis, Ashish Shelar, Pravin Darekar or Prasad Lad. He recalled how Union minister Narayan Rane, MP Navneet Rana, journalists like Arnab Goswami were jailed during the Uddhav regime. He alleged that Uddhav was trying to weaken the BJP on one hand and strengthen Maha Vikas Aghadi on the other by using governmental machinery. Praising MNS leader Raj Thackeray, he said Raj was a broad minded person unlike Uddhav. He expressed confidence that the Mahayuti will sweep the polls in Maharashtra.

It’s the husband-wife team of Navneet-Ravi Rana vs the father-son team of Anandrao- Abhijit Adsul playing out in Amravati. Both the Ranas and Adsuls have one leg in the state and Centre. While Ravi Raja represented Badnera assembly constituency for three terms from 2009 onwards, his wife Navneet is the sitting MP from Amravati. A similar arrangement had been worked out between the Adsuls — father Anantrao Adsul was the MP from Amravati from 1996 to 2014 while son captain Abhijeet Adsul was an MLA from Daryapur constituency from 2009.Things changed when Naveet Rana defeated the five-term MP Adsul in 2019. The equations changed further in 2024 when both of them found themselves vying for the same Amravati seat from the same Mahayuti alliance with Ranas pitching from the BJP and Adsuls from the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena. Ravi Rana famously quipped in a rally that not only will he get a ticket from Amravati but he will also get the Adsul’s to campaign for his wife. Thanks to their clout, Navneet Rana did manage to get the ticket from Mahayuti with the state BJP welcoming her at midnight. However, the arrogance of Rana’s is such that Navneet’s nomination from the BJP was opposed by BJP’s own cadres, as also from the independent parties like Bachchu Kadu of Prahar Party, who put up a candidate against her. To cool things down, the husband-wife duo visited Adsul’s residence. But, senior Adsul seems adamant on opposing Rana. Looks like the Amravati feud promises to hold more surprises.

  Sixty-one year old yesteryear’s superstar Govinda is back in the news, well not for signing a big budget film but for re-entering politics by joining Shiv Sena led by the Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde. Govinda has made it clear that he will not be contesting any elections. It may be recalled that he won the 2004 Lok Sabha election on a Congress ticket. Then, what’s his compulsion to re-enter politics? Does he feel that if he is part of a political party, then movies will come his way? Not really. A seasoned insider says that Govinda has been trying to make a comeback to films since 2015 but strangely, this exceptionally talented and accomplished star has not been able to win the faith of the producers to bet on him, once again. His past seems to have caught up with him; not reporting to the set on time has got the goat of producers, directors and co-stars. Says another source, lack of work for Govinda is not because the industry has lost faith in him but he has developed a trust deficit with them. His superstitious nature has made filmmakers uncomfortable. Both David Dhawan and Salman Khan did give Govinda a second chance. But, Govinda has this feeling that the world is against him. Recently, he overreacted to a comment by Vashu Bhagnani on his late coming on the sets of his films. Govinda who has acted in more than 165 Hindi and language films can become the favourite of producers and directors once again only if he reinvents himself.

The BJP is preparing a strategy under which each MLA will have to ensure a sizable lead for the NDA’s Lok Sabha candidate in his/her constituency. Each Lok Sabha constituency’s six assembly segments will play an important role in bringing back the saffron rule at the Centre. Accordingly, specific targets have been prepared for the BJP MLAs. These will be analysed after the election results are out. In the case of Maharashtra, the Assembly election will take place in October 2024. For Maharashtra, the NDA is working towards winning 40-plus out of 48 seats. The BJP, the dominant partner, is supported this time by the breakaway Shiv Sena and NCP factions. Much will depend upon the collective working by the triumvirate. In view of this situation, even MLAs of the Sena (Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) will have to be wary and work assiduously to ensure the NDA’s victory. The other aspect of the plan is to curtail potential rebellion. It has started showing its effectiveness. The first beneficiary is Union minister Narayan Rane, who has filed his nomination for the Sindhudurg-Ratnagiri constituency in the Konkan. The other strong claimant was Sena (Shinde) leader Kiran Samant, brother of Uday Samant, a top minister in Shinde’s cabinet, who has declared in the presence of his elder brother that he will work for Rane’s victory. More of this is anticipated around the state.

Firebrand OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal has announced his withdrawal from the Lok Sabha election. He himself has made this momentous announcement, saying that any delay in deciding a candidate for the Nashik constituency could be denting the Mahayuti’s prospects. Bhujbal indicated that none had asked him to walk out but chief minister Eknath Shinde’s insistence for the seat is seen as the reason for this significant development. Had Bhujbal been fielded, there was the possibility of the Maratha opposition as he is the main exponent of the OBC’s opposition to their reservation demand. However, neither Bhjubal nor sitting Sena (Shinde) MP Hemant Godse have touched upon this aspect. But the announcement has almost endorsed Godse’s bid for a third term. Bhujbal thanked Union home minister Amit Shah, disclosing that Shah was insistent for him, as informed by DCM Ajit Pawar and confirmed by another DCM Devendra Fadnavis. Godse has expressed satisfaction over Bhujbal’s decision and the Mahayuti, too, feels relieved since Nasik was one of the seats for which so far no unanimity could occur. Bhujbal has now declared that he will tour Maharashtra for the victory of Mahayuti candidates. His presence in some constituencies could be beneficial, but inconvenient in some others due to his strident pro-OBC stance. 

The ruling saffron alliance in Maharashtra is predicted to suffer in the coming Lok Sabha election, according to an Opinion Poll conducted by the Marathi news channel ABP Majha and C-Voter. The channel has flashed the inferences drawn by the poll conducted across the state. The highlight of the prediction is that the three-party Mahayuti will have to content itself with just 30 seats, yielding the remaining 18 to the Opposition-led I.N.D.I.A front. The Mahayuti had won 41 seats in 2019. The shocking prophecy in the poll is that the NCP led by deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar will not be able to win a single Lok Sabha seat. The broad findings of the poll are as follows: BJP 21/22, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) 9/10, Shiv Sena (UBT) 9, NCP (Sharad) 5 and Congress 3. Moreover, in Baramati, Supriya Sule is likely to be re-elected, the poll says. The Congress party will improve its tally to three from the lone Chandrapur seat it won in the 2019 election. The NCP under Sharad Pawar will retain Satara and Shirur while the results in Madha, Nanded and Parbhani will be astonishing, according to the poll. The Sena under Uddhav Thackeray will receive a much-needed boost if it can win about 10 seats since most of its sitting MPs and MLAs have gone with chief minister Eknath Shinde.

Dalits, who constitute 11.81 % of Maharashtra’s population, have failed to find space in the seat-sharing arrangements from either of the political coalitions in the post-split Maharashtra political scenario. Ramdas Athawale, the erstwhile Union minister for social justice and empowerment, and probably the most prominent Dalit face in the country, has failed to bag even a single seat for his party. Athawale revealed that he has been promised cabinet ministership in the forthcoming Maharashtra government, posts in a few corporations in and assured seats in the forthcoming assembly elections. He also revealed that his supporters had asked him to stay put in the ruling NDA alliance since being in power had benefited his party. He is also cool right now as his own Rajya Sabha term continues till 2026. Ambedkar did rue that despite being an old alliance partner with the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition, those who came in much later like the Eknath Shinde received much better terms than him. Athawale’s pitch for Shirdi constituency had to be given up to accommodate the seat for Eknath Shinde-supporter sitting MP Sadashiv Lokhande. He did admit that deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had reached out to him to cool tempers after he publicly expressed his displeasure. The other senior Dalit leader, Prakash Ambedkar has already put up 20 candidates from his Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi. This time around though Ambedkar has decided to put up candidates from all communities and not necessarily only from the Dalit community.

MNS president Raj Thackeray’s ‘unconditional’ support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP has scored its first casualty. MNS general secretary Keertikumar Shinde  left the organisation soon after Raj declared his stand at a huge rally in Shivaji Park in Mumbai on April 9. Shinde’s resignation has gone viral on social media. Raj’s critics, too, have come out to point fingers at him. The first such salvo was fired by Republican leader Prakash Ambedkar, who has claimed that the BJP supporters from north and south India have begun feeling insecure because of the stand taken by Raj. MNS had in the past assaulted their brethren, Ambedkar recalled and said the undivided Shiv Sena and later MNS had launched violent agitations against ‘outsiders’ in Maharashtra. The other criticism of Raj was a statement by Sena (Uddhav) MP Sanjay Raut. He was asked why his party had not sought Raj’s support if it had tried to enlist Ambedkar to its side. Raut sarcastically said that the moot issue was the seriousness of the person (Raj) to be approached and not if his help was sought. “Politics is not a game to pass time,” Raut quipped. Also, the silence of Raj about supporting the Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by Ajit Pawar is considered significant. His clarification on this delicate aspect is expected to be issued soon.

Shiv Sena party chief Uddhav Thackeray’s announcement to field a not so well-known candidate from the prestigious Kalyan-Dombivli Lok Sabha constituency has surprised many though the ruling alliance appears pleased with the decision. Although chief minister Eknath Shinde’s son Dr Shrikant is tipped to contest the seat this time, too, his name was not announced formally till Wednesday evening. The BJP’s insistence for the constituency is said to have delayed a final decision of the NDA. Seizing the initiative, Uddhav has justified his selection of Vaishali Darekar Rane, not even a frontrunner for the party ticket. A former Maharashtra Navnirman Sena activist, Vaishali staged her homecoming in 2016. At present, she is heading one of the Sena shakhas. Although some more famous names were being discussed, Vaishali’s choice is intriguing for most Sena workers. On the other hand, Dr Shrikant Shinde, the CM’s son, is a formidable candidate but the tussle between the BJP and the Sena (Shinde) has continued despite several rounds of meetings. Now that Uddhav has fielded a lightweight, alliance leaders feel the seat is already in their bag. Vaishali is a Dombivli resident in the constituency. Uddhav’s wife Rashmi was born and brought up in the middle-class town, known for its unwavering support of Hindutva and the BJP. Thus, the so-called Dombivli connection is now viral on social media platforms.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde enjoys hotline service to Prime Minister Narendra Modi (been a while now) as alliance partner of the Mahayuti government and his Shiv Sena now formally within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Informed sources say, “PM is too fond of Shinde. After general elections and subsequent state assemblies are positively concluded, Modi plans to elevate him to parliament. Probably, Rajya Sabha nomination, if all goes as per Narendra Modi’s political vision. Shinde only uses his direct connect to the PM very sparingly though.” The down-to-earth Shiv Sena CM faces his current political test to ensure disgruntled MP colleagues, unwilling to relinquish parliamentary constituencies, toe the BJP line. Shinde has power to offer state assembly constituencies in lieu of forfeited Lok Sabha seats in return, keeping with BJP’s objective to maximize the number of winning MPs from Maharashtra. The BJP consciously keeps aloof over Shinde’s intra-party wranglings while Shinde consolidates his leadership over Shiv Sena, independent MLAs who joined his team. Still, Sena colleagues vehemently object to eschewing Lok Sabha seats despite opinion polls indicating their non-winnability. Already, alliance partner chief of independent Prahar party, Bacchu Kadu, re-emphasized fighting intentions over Amravati’s Lok Sabha seat. Here, the BJP has given a ticket to independent MP Navneet Rana. Some freshly sought retirees from among Maharashtra’s Shiv Sena MPs, who trucked with Shinde, have now upped the ante insisting on 16 parliamentary seats. BJP seems in no hurry considering the final nominations due date is over a month away.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde seems cornered in his own Mahayuti alliance by the BJP. There is much unrest, fear and anxiety in the Shiv Sena camp (Shinde faction) as he struggles to even accommodate his own elected Parliamentarians. Thirteen of the total 18 MPs from the united Shiv Sena had broken away with Shinde post to form the government along with the BJP in June 2022. But, restlessness prevails as the BJP seems to be eyeing their seats citing the BJP’s winnability factor based on surveys. Shinde has apparently been directed to change six of his sitting MP’s now following negative reports in their surveys. Shinde’s lieutenant Sanjay Shirsat clearly echoed the anger in his camp when he stated that surveys often proved to be wrong earlier and cannot be the determining factor for granting tickets. It is getting more personal for Shinde as the BJP has not spared Shinde’s own son, Dr Shrikant Shinde, a two-term MP from Kalyan.  There are talks of asking him to contest from Thane. Shinde is contending with midnight protests at his official CM residence by Nashik’s sitting MP Hemant Godse.  Ticket distribution has created unrest in the Shinde camp who reckon that the BJP could adopt an even more rigid stance in Maharashtra’s assembly ticket distribution process, once they achieve their goal of returning to power in the Centre in June 2024.

BJP’s Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is working in right earnest, sans political distractions anymore, to ensure 41 to 45 (out of 48) Lok Sabha seats for NDA from Maharashtra. His party high command cleared the field in Maharashtra by designating him as BJP’s sole face, having strategically elevated Sudhir Mungantiwar, and Pankaja Munde among other perceived contenders to the Parliamentary arena. Fadnavis’ political challenge remains to ensure his party contests 31 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra and convince chief minister Eknath Shinde and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar to accommodate BJP candidates from their allocated seats just like Milind Deora found Rajya Sabha nomination from Shinde’s quota. Fadnavis has emphasized the ‘winnability’ criterion and 50% vote share to turn into reality, PM Narendra Modi’s aspiration for 370 BJP MPs in Lok Sabha 3.0. Fadnavis must ensure NCP MLA, Pankaja’s cousin Dhananjay Munde’s wholehearted efforts to ensure his sister (whom he defeated in 2019 state assemblies) wins from Beed. He never enjoyed good relations even with the late Gopinath Munde. “The important thing is Fadnavis has liberty to offer adequate representation in subsequent state assemblies while asking coalition partners to swallow the bitter pill for general elections. The results of the Lok Sabha will decide subsequent state assembly seat allocations in Maharashtra as well,” a source revealed. Whether this will have a placatory effect on known rabble rouser, independent MLA Bacchu Kadu, remains to be seen?

Eruption of discontent after a candidate’s name is announced is an expected occurrence for all major parties but when it is a three-party combination, the problems aggravate to another level. Leaders of the ruling alliance MahaYuti — the BJP, the Shiv Sena’s Shinde faction and the NCP’s Ajit Pawar group — are spending more time in dousing the fires than concentrating on campaigning. The case with the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is no different. The Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray, the Congress and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar are so engrossed in settling their mutual disputes that it is becoming difficult to understand who is an official nominee and belonging to which party. Deserting the original party to join another has become rampant and has added to the headache of the leaders from both sides. To add fuel to the fire, Republican leader Prakash Ambedkar, independent MLA Bachchu Kadu and splinter group leaders have been making one announcement after another to confound their own followers. Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut has been accused of playing a double game by Ambedkar who was wooed by MVA till the other day. On the other hand, the Congress is angry with Uddhav for unilaterally announcing the candidates for some disputed seats. Maratha reservation demand leader Manoj Jarange Patil has been contributing his bit by daily changing his stand. The picture will be clear only on the last day of withdrawal of nomination by the candidates.

Manoj Jarange Patil has once again changed his tactics for the coming Lok Sabha election. Now, he says only one candidate should be fielded on behalf of the caste in each Lok Sabha constituency in Maharashtra. Moreover, he has clearly stated that such a candidate need not belong to the Maratha caste but should be a votary of the demand. Jarange’s decision was announced at a rally of the Maratha reservation demand’s supporters. Diluting his aggressive stand further, Jarange has said that for the Maratha community, the assembly election is more important than the Parliament’s election. ‘We will teach the government a lesson at that time,” he said while criticizing chief minister Eknath Shinde. Earlier, Jarange had threatened to derail the election process by fielding one Maratha candidate from each village so that the ballot paper would carry hundreds of names and EVMs would have to be replaced by printed ballot papers. However, given the heat generated by the LS election process, Jarange has been more or less ignored by the media to which he was sort of addicted. The selection of candidates by various political parties and their alliances and fronts has a clear imprint of caste considerations. Thus, the spirit generated by Jarange to press his demand for Maratha caste reservations has evaporated. His claim that his decision can impact the results in 18 LS constituencies is hence viewed with disbelief.

Intense bargaining for claiming more and more Lok Sabha constituencies has delayed the seat-sharing formulas in Maharashtra for both sides. While the ruling alliance is still to declare its candidates in many constituencies, an agreement on this issue is as yet eluding the Opposition I.N.D.I.A front despite several rounds of discussion. Top leaders from both sides are found closeted with each other or with potential defectors. Chief minister Eknath Shinde and two deputy chief ministers, Devendra Fadanvis and Ajit Pawar keep on assuring their followers that the formula is being finalized and will be announced soon. From I.N.D.I.A front side, Sharad Pawar, former CM Uddhav Thackeray and state Congress president Nana Patole have been meeting time and again to hammer out an agreement that would be respectable for all three constituents. Nonetheless, rebels are popping up all over the state to add to the headache for both camps. Family clashes concerning the Pawar and Thackeray families have added to the ferocity of the fight. Uddhav has mounted a bitter attack against cousin Raj for meeting Union home minister Amit Shah in Delhi, thereby implying that the MNS chief has compromised the honour of Marathi Manoos.  Ajit Pawar continues to be lashed by his adversaries while Beed candidate Pankaja Munde’s selection is described as a signal that her sister, sitting MP Pritam Munde, will be dropped this time. The role of their cousin Dhananjay Munde will be under scanner, given their earlier political enmity.

The ruling Mahayuti has been unable to resolve the stalemate created over the seat sharing formula, which is likely to undergo a major change if the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena is included in the saffron alliance. While deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has indicated that the Mahayuti now has no scope to welcome any new partner, several other factors have impacted the ongoing talks. One of them is MNS chief Raj Thackeray, who has been ambivalent about joining the Mahayuti but has not discounted the possibility outright. His trusted aide Bala Nandgaonkar has been reportedly sounded to contest from South Mumbai, a Shiv Sena stronghold all these years, though due to the BJP support. BJP leaders are weighing the pros and cons about taking MNS on board since it is felt that Raj can easily discredit his cousin Uddhav Thackeray in campaigning. Even at present, Raj does not lose a single opportunity to throw barbs at his cousin Uddhav. Besides South Mumbai, there are about a dozen seats which are claimed by more than one partners of the Mahayuti. The BJP, of course, will get the largest slice though the Sena led by CM Eknath Shinde and the NCP under Ajit Pawar are yet not ready to relent about their demands. The final round of talks will be held in Delhi in a day or two, according to the three leaders.

“Eknath Gangubai Sambhaji Shinde” says the nameplate outside Maharashtra chief minister’s Mantralaya cabin. Deputy chief ministers Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, too, have asked their staff to redo their official nameplates. This change is one of many, in accordance with a series of decisions the state cabinet has taken on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections and just before the model code of conduct comes into force. According to this decision, all official documents will include the mother’s name after the individual’s name and will be followed by the father’s name and surname. In the last two days, the cabinet took nearly 300 decisions, small and major. One decision has proposed renaming suburban rail stations in Mumbai, in a bid to revive its historical place names. Thus, Sandhurst Road station will be renamed as Dongri while Charni Road will be known as Girgaon. Of course, these changes will become applicable only after the Centre clears the proposal. The renaming spree will include Ahmednagar to Ahilyanagar after Devi Ahilyabai Holkar, the ruler of Indore, remembered for her construction of various temples and ghats on sacred rivers like the Ganga and Narmada. She was born in the district, known for nearly three centuries as Ahmednagar. In response to a demand to name Dadar station after Dr BR Ambedkar, it has been planned to give his name to the newly developing Parel rail terminus. After due process, the fate of most of these changes will be known. For now, they are generally welcomed.

The Lok Sabha seat sharing talks between the Shiv Sena Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, Deputy Chief Ministers Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar are finally reaching a consensus. BJP will contest the lion’s share of seats (30 seats), Shinde’s Sena taking the tiger’s share (10-15) while Ajit Pawar’s NCP may be restricted to three to four seats. According to a senior political leader, “The NCP will be allotted seats based on the number of Lok Sabha seats the undivided NCP had secured in the 2019 general elections with the deal likely sweetened with the Pune parliamentary constituency. Things are fluid and the alliance is still open to candidates from any party in the alliance for seats where the other two fail to find suitable contestants with a winning political quotient.” The BJP may give up its claim on the Pune Lok Sabha seat, having already sent its party candidate Medha Kulkarni to Parliament via the Rajya Sabha. In 2019, the BJP had contested 25 seats and won 23. The (undivided) Shiv Sena contested 23 and won 18, giving the NDA a tally of 41 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra. While Ajit Pawar may get Pune, the BJP’s state leadership failed to ensure poll wins in the region in Pimpri Chinchwad and Pune in lower rung elections, cooperative sector may come back to haunt it in the coming days. Union Home Minister Amit Shah is directly handling the talks with Shinde, Fadnavis and Pawar.

The BJP has emerged as a big bossy brother in the ticket distribution process in Maharashtra insisting on cornering almost 66 % of the seats in Maharashtra — it wants 32 tickets of the total 48 seats. While Eknath Shinde may get 10 tickets instead of 18 that he had demanded, Ajit Pawar could get only 4 instead of 10 that he has sought. This squeezes out the aspirations of those who came in with Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar hoping for better prospects and gives a free hand for criticism from the opposition. Both the rebel wings are not giving it up easily and instead putting up a strong perception fight in the media via statements from leaders like Ramdas Kadam and Chhagan Bhujbal. While Kadam, who is upset about BJP fiddling in his son’s Dapoli constituency, stated that the BJP cannot be growing at the cost of others, Bhujbal insisted that the NCP should get tickets on par with the Shinde’s Sena. Both have been asked by Amit Shah to be practical in their demands and focus instead on candidates having winning potential. A new compromise strategy is being floated to accommodate these aspirants from Shinde and Pawar factions — the BJP wants a few to contest on the lotus symbol. This has sparked sarcastic comments from the Congress leader Nana Patole commenting that BJP is now stealing candidates from other parties since they don’t have their own. This is also believed to be a strategy to weaken the rebel parties and quell any prospect of rebellion, post the elections.

If the same opinion poll can disturb both opposing camps with its forecast, the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll has just done that. Its Maharashtra poll survey has predicted 35 seats for the NDA and 13 for the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Denizens of both camps are somehow disappointed by this forecast. Interestingly, this prediction has come out close on the heels of the visit of Union home minister Amit Shah to the state and his resolve to win at 45 of the total 48 seats. The Opinion Poll has dampened the mood among the three MVA partners – the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, the Congress and the NCP under Sharad Pawar. Already miffed by the changing stance of Republican leader Prakash Ambedkar over seat sharing, MVA is yet to finalise its seat distribution. In the fluid atmosphere, the survey has endorsed the general impression that the BJP will be the largest gainer in the state, winning 25 seats. According to another prediction, sitting MP Supriya Sule will face defeat in the family fiefdom, Baramati, which will be the most prestigious fight in the state. If the MVA is still groping for an understanding, the three parties in the NDA have given indications that they have almost finalised their slices following a discussion with Shah. This happened only after CM Eknath Shinde and DCM Ajit Pawar diluted their original demands. Now, more surveys are awaited to heighten the election fever.

Used to witness clashes between legislators belonging to the Treasury Benches and Opposition, Maharashtra Vidhan Bhavan was astounded when news broke out of a virtual fisticuff between a top minister and a ruling alliance MLA on Friday. Top minister Dada Bhuse and NCP (Ajit) faction member Mahendra Thorve rushed at each other after a brief verbal duel just outside the house lobby. Immediately, another minister, Shambhuraje Desai, tried to soothe them and took them inside. However, by that time, over a dozen legislators had seen the disturbing scene. While Bhuse later told the house that no clash had taken place, Thorve made it a point that he had asked Bhuse why certain works in his constituency were not getting clearance. Thorve has been elected from Raigad district and is considered close to DCM Ajit Pawar. Otherwise a low-profile leader, he lost his cool, he said, since even CM Eknath Shinde’s son had intervened so that the work would receive a nod, but in vain. When the CM was asked about the reported fight, he dismissed the question by saying, “Ask me about the house session, not such things.” The matter, however, was raised in the assembly by Opposition leaders Vijay Wadettiwar and former finance minister Jayant Patil. They both condemned the incident and expressed concern that physical assaults had now reached the legislature precincts.

As the Maratha agitation in Maharashtra may have fizzled out, the political knives are out between Devendra Fadnavis and Sharad Pawar. The agitation was scuttled in the backdrop of allegations of financial kickbacks, secret midnight meetings and even conspiracies to kill Manoj Jarange Patil. While the BJP has fired all guns against the original Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar, accusing him of being the mastermind behind the agitation and even hinting that the conspiracy was managed from Rajesh Tope’s sugar factory, Sharad Pawar has dared that he has nothing to fear and that no phone calls were made from him. Tope admitted that he had simply provided food and water to agitators from his constituency. Jarange Patil has hinted that leaders from all political parties would stand exposed in the SIT investigation, sparking speculation that the agitation had the tacit support from blocks within both the ruling and the opposition fronts. The Eknath Shinde government has been accused of deliberately playing footsie with Jarange Pati. All parties may have unanimously voted for 10% reservation for the Marathas in a special session of the legislature on February 20, 2024, but the aftermath of the agitation has led to a bitter fall out between parties eyeing the politically powerful bloc of Maratha vote bank. This vote bank continues to be splintered across parties and political machinations have failed to consolidate it behind any particular political block.

Maratha reservation agitation’s icon Manoj Jarange Patil has abandoned his audacious plan to lead a march to the Mumbai residence of deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis to press his demand. Already roasted by his former associates, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s stern warning to Jarange and his followers that they will face stringent action if they took law in their hand is believed to have resulted in his withdrawal of the march. Even Opposition parties, too, have indirectly expressed unhappiness over Jarange’s impossible demands, like asking the government to take and announce a decision within the next few hours. Now, his associate for 18 years, Baburao Walekar has charged that Jarange is hungry for publicity and had instigated his followers in the past to indulge in violence though keeping himself away from such acts. Walekar is the third leader to come out in the open against Jarange. The first was Abhay Baraskar, who is a noted Keertan exponent. He was followed by Sangeeta Wankhede, who became Jarange’s follower after he launched his agitation. She has alleged that Jarange was taking erratic decisions at the behest of a top NCP giant. Interestingly, Fadnavis had stated a day earlier that Jarange’s script resembled the statements of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. On Monday (Feb 26), Jarange has announced the end of his indefinite fast. The battle over Maratha reservations is expected to enter the precincts of judiciary soon.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has shut all doors for the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray. In a TV channel interview, Fadnavis freely expressed his hurt over the way he was treated by Uddhav after the 2019 assembly election in the state. Fadnavis said political differences can be ironed out. But it will not be possible for the BJP rank and file to overlook the insults hurled by Uddhav at Prime Minister Narendra Modi day in and day out. Recalling his friendly relations with Uddhav for 25 years, Fadnavis said that the Sena leader even refused to take his telephone calls after the assembly election results. It is extremely hurtful to be stabbed in the back by someone you had close ties with, the DCM said. He also attacked NCP founder Sharad Pawar for going back on his pact to form a government with the BJP. Fadnavis made it clear that the people flocking to the BJP were coming by accepting its ideology. “We had just two MPs in 1984. Now we are in power. But throughout, we have never compromised with our basic principles,” he maintained. His statements have indicated that more incomings into the BJP are still possible. One such name being discussed is that of Eknath Khadse, a pillar of the Maharashtra BJP once upon a time. The Congress, too, is worried by the possible exodus. The state BJP leadership will soon administer some more political shocks, it is felt.

The entry of one ex-chief minister Ashok Chavan into the BJP fold seems to have landed another ex-CM, Narayan Rane on a sticky wicket. It has upset Rane’s plan to take the easier option of taking the Rajya Sabha route to Parliament. Instead, he is now forced to contest for Lok Sabha elections from the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg constituency, from where his elder son Nilesh Rane lost twice in a row in 2014 and 2019 to Uddhav Sena’s Vinayak Raut. Raut has now developed a strong local base and presents a formidable challenge here. The Rane’s continue to share bitter relations with the Uddhav’s Sena. Elder son, Nilesh Rane recently, issued threats to Uddhav’s legislator Bhaskar Jadhav from the dais of a public rally following a riotous situation between warring party workers with stone pelting leading and police lathi-charging and tear gases being used. Also, the Uddhav Sena faction has not forgiven Rane for his rebellion in 2005 and is gunning to defeat him. Rane, who is a party hopper, having moved on from the Shiv Sena to the Congress before joining the BJP with his two sons, is facing competition for his ticket from his own alliance partners. His constituency is being eyed by Eknath Shinde supporter, industries minister Uday Samant for his brother Kiran Samant, who has already started campaigning there. The Konkan belt had always been a Shiv Sena stronghold which the BJP is keen to get Rane to spearhead its party into the region.  

BJP’s 2019 ‘Political Decade Policy’ empowering cadre, gen-next portends ill for more famous leaders two tenures old and over 75 years old. Brahmin Medha Kulkarni, RSS ‘Karsevak’ Ajit Gopchade secured Rajya Sabha nominations since Kulkarni relinquished her Pune assembly seat for Chandrakant Patil in 2019, while Gopchade’s prominence rose after 1992 Babri mosque demolition. BJP spokesperson Atul Shah says, “Mega party BJP always emphasises generation next and is always widening our political horizon. While Maratha leader (newbie) Ashok Chavan secured Rajya Sabha, two BJP workers got nominations too.” Maharashtra BJP Executive Committee member Mahendra Jain notes, “Kulkarni sacrificed her Pune constituency so, her RS nomination satiates Pune’s Brahmin community. Clear political message is that famous leaders may not take their Lok Sabha candidatures for granted.” BJP’s policy saw Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar moved to Madhya Pradesh assembly as speaker earlier. Union minister Parshottam Rupala may not get Lok Sabha seat to set right Gujarat caste dynamics, unreasonable pressure from Patels. Rajnath Singh (73) may still secure candidature, Shivrajsingh Chauhan asked to prove election mettle after being sidelined for MP CM ship just like Vasundhara Raje. Narayan Rane is unlikely over health issues although his son may be fielded. Similarly, Chandrakant Dada Patil and Pankaja Munde may lose out. “No decision till now on holding simultaneous polls for Maha assemblies with general polls but, PM Modi who keeps plans close to chest, may still spring a surprise.” BJP will contest 28/30 Maharashtra parliamentary seats itself while also fielding candidates from Eknath Shinde’s party (like Milind Deora got Rajya Sabha). Shinde won’t seek many parliamentary seats, lacking worthy winning candidates,” the source added. Will Vinod Tawde be BJP’s Konkan face in ensuing polls?

The vexed reservation of the Maratha community, which the Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde was hoping to capitalise on, doesn’t seem to have gone well. Not only did it fail to halt the fast by Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil, it further upset him and he stated that the community had felt let down by the CM. “It clearly shows that the government doesn’t care much for the demands of the Maratha community,” he rued before announcing further intensification of his hunger strike and refusing treatment. The reservation issue has already been creating much unrest in the Marathwada region with bandhs and protests being part of the agitations playing out there. Analysts view the Maratha reservation issue as a box of false promises brought out before every election to woo the 28% Maratha electorate that is spread across all political parties. This was the third attempt by the Maharashtra government to promise reservations for the Maratha community, with earlier attempts being made by the Devendra Fadnavis government in 2018 and the Prithviraj Chauhan government in 2014. Each time the decisions were stuck down by the courts. Even Shinde is aware of this challenge and kept emphasising that this time, it should stand legal scrutiny, backed up as it was with data from an empirical survey from 1,58,20,264 households using computer assisted personal interviews. Even Jarange Patil is not convinced if it will stand in courts, and this fear could actually boomerang in the Lok Sabha polls.

The Maharashtra government has decided to cross the 50% reservation ceiling by granting 10% educational and governmental job reservation to the Maratha community. Already, the state’s total reservation is around 52%. Chief minister Eknath Shinde has said that 22 states in the country have crossed the ceiling so far. While moving a resolution to grant Maratha reservation, Shinde said the quota in Tamil Nadu was 69% whereas it was 75% in Bihar. The Maratha reservation demand was first raised in 1980. It was first granted in 2014 and then in 2018. While the first reservation was struck down by the Mumbai High Court, the second was rejected by the Supreme Court. Explaining this history, Shinde claimed that this time, the provision has been structured in such a manner that it will survive judicial scrutiny. He said nearly six lakh objections and suggestions have been received over the draft of the resolution, made public earlier. The Maratha reservation quantum, however, has been reducing in the state. While the 2014 reservation quota was recommended to be 16%, it was suggested by the High Court that the educational quota should be 12% and governmental job quota could be 13%. The reservation now will be 10%, if allowed by the court of law.

Though NCP founder Sharad Pawar’s right hand Jayant Patil has discounted any possibility of crossing over to the BJP, there are few believers to trust him as his bonhomie with the saffron party has been a matter of speculation in Maharashtra for a long time. When the NCP split in 2021 and Pawar’s nephew Ajit teamed up with the BJP as well as the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde, those remaining loyal to the veteran leader included Jayant Patil, who once was the state’s home as well as finance minister. In fact, his supporters started projecting him as a future CM of Maharashtra when the murmurs about Ajit’s restlessness were heard in NCP circles before the split. Though Patil downplayed this image building exercise, his ambition has not remained a secret. A highly qualified politician, Patil has kept himself away from any scandal all these years. In spite of the efforts to sully his name by his detractors, Patil had managed to keep himself above any acrimony, meekly accepting Ajit’s hegemony in the united NCP. However, since the split, Patil has emerged as the unofficial spokesman of the faction, in the belief that he speaks out Pawar’s mind. But the shock administered by former CM Ashok Chavan is too fresh in the public mind to take Patil on face value. Patil and Supriya Sule have vehemently refuted the possibility of him joining the BJP. However, even his own party workers feel that ‘wait and watch’ is the only option available to them before taking any decision about their own future.

Unlike the splits in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena, a vertical split has been averted in the Congress party for now, despite the exit of former chief minister Ashok Chavan. The exit of Chavan has failed to create a fissure in the Congress or even lead to an exodus unlike the exit of Eknath Shinde or Ajit Pawar from their respective parties. The exit of Congress leaders like Chavan, Baba Siddiqui and even Milind Deora has led to weakening of the Congress position in the ongoing seat-distribution talks within the I.N.D.I.A bloc despite holding the highest tally of 42 legislators in the Maha Vikas Aghadi; Sharad Pawar is left with 13 legislators and Uddhav Thackeray with 16 legislators. Soon after Chavan’s formal resignation, AlCC Maharashtra Congress in-charge Ramesh Chennithala launched into a damage control mode and called upon NCP supremo Sharad Pawar along with senior Congress leaders. He also led another delegation to Uddhav Thacekray to take stock of the situation. Pawar, who has been leading the charge of the I.N.D.I.A bloc, is said to have spoken to the Congress legislators and taken stock of the situation. Anjali Ambedkar, wife of Prakash Ambedkar from the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, had noted how their seat-sharing negotiators from the Congress side, be it Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil in 2019 or Ashok Chavan in 2024, had gone the BJP way. Who do we negotiate with in such a situation, she snubbed in a tweet.

Repeated stories in www.shortpost.in predicting that Ashok Chavan, former chief minister of Maharashtra will bid adieu to the Congress party are now confirmed, though he has taken his own time to decide. Chavan’s absence from the legislative assembly floor in 2022 when the house was voting on a motion expressing confidence in the government of Eknath Shinde had proved sensational. However, his clarification that he was held up in a traffic jam was accepted by his party. At the time, DCM Devendra Fadnavis had thanked the ‘invisible hands’ supporting the government. On Monday (Feb 12), there was a feeling of déjà vu when Fadnavis said that some bigwigs from the Opposition were expected to join the BJP. Within minutes, Chavan announced his resignation from the Congress and the legislative assembly. Although he has not confirmed his saffron entry, Chavan has not denied the possibility, either. “Wait for a couple of days,” is all that he has said for the time being. Even when Chavan had supervised Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra’s meticulous arrangements in his home constituency Nanded, www.shortpost.in had hinted at his restlessness. However, the news story was not taken seriously. Chavan, too, continued to participate in the party’s activities. Recovering from the shock, Congress leaders in Maharashtra are presently frantically contacting the party legislators since reports are circulating that several of them are preparing to follow Chavan out of the Congress.

Shooting incidents in Maharashtra have brought the Maharashtra government under fire and raised a chorus for the resignation of home minister Devendra Fadnavis. The killing of close aide of Uddhav Thackeray, Abhishek Ghosalkar during a Facebook live as also the shooting in a Ulhasnagar police station by a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) legislator have raised questions of the law and order situation in the state. Parallels are being drawn with Bihar and the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti government has come under fire especially from Uddhav Thackeray’s firebrand Sanjay Raut who has demanded implementation of President’s rule in the state. Raut has also been vocal against his bete noire chief minister Eknath Shinde for ‘goonda raj’ and ‘mafia raj’ in Maharashtra. He supported his claims by releasing pictures of gangsters along with Shinde at the state secretariat. The Uddhav faction of the Sena, which is under fire from various agencies, has upped the ante against Shinde and Fadnavis, who it believes are leading the charge to poach their legislators with threats of cases and other means to get them into the ruling alliance. A BJP internal survey in Maharashtra has been unflattering for the party; hence the overdrive to poach political support from other parties. These rising incidents of violence needs to be viewed from the lens of the escalating political tensions amidst the coerced realignments resulting in bitter local equations in the run-up to the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

A Mood Of the Nation pre-election survey carried out by India Today and C-Voter has predicted that the tripartite Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) consisting Uddhav-led Shiv Sena, the Congress and the NCP under Sharad Pawar will bag 26 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra while the ruling alliance of the Sena under CM Eknath Shinde as well as the two DCMs, Devendra Fadanvis and Ajit Pawar only 22. In 2019, the BJP-Sena alliance had won 41 seats. It is generally expected that it would repeat the performance, especially since Ajit Pawar teamed up with the saffron alliance. Buoyed up by the forecast, the Opposition in the state has started making claims that its Lok Sabha tally would exceed 35. Maharashtra’s LS tally is only second to Uttar Pradesh with 80 seats. Hence, Maharashtra occupies a crucial place in the BJP’s electoral calculation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s frequent visits to the state are interpreted as a sign of nervousness on the part of the ruling side. He is slated to pay his next visit on February 19 to launch some mega infra projects. According to the survey, the Congress will win 12 seats while the Sena (Uddhav) and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar would capture 14 seats together, leaving 22 for the NDA.  The MVA is feeling more confident ever since Republican leader Prakash Ambedkar has agreed to enter the LS fray under its banner. In 2019, the united Sena had won 19 seats, along with the BJP’s 21. The united NCP had four while the Congress and the AIMIM could win one seat each. The survey findings are rather surprising since it has predicted a BJP sweep in several major states, including UP, MP, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Meetings between public figures and underworld elements are no novelty but when they happen one after another and a chief minister or deputy chief minister (DCM) are in the picture, literally, eyebrows are bound to raise. Photographs of Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s son Dr Shrikant, MP, and DCM Ajit Pawar himself, besides his son Parth, receiving mafia members have gone viral over the past few days, igniting a political inferno. Coincidentally, this is happening when the state is rocked on account of indiscriminate firing by BJP’s Kalyan (East) MLA Ganpat Gaikwad at his foes inside a police station. Gaikwad had made serious allegations against Shinde and Shrikant. The CM’s supporters have taken objection to it and demanded BJP’s action against Gaikwad. Amidst all this, the first shock was notorious muscle man Gajaa Marane’s meeting with Parth in the latter’s Pune residence. Ajit later said it should not have happened and admonished his son. Within a few days, the CM was cornered when his son Shrikant received good wishes from Hemant Dabhekar, a known criminal from Pune, at ‘Varsha,’ official residence of the CM. The occasion was Shrikant’s birthday. Even before the dust was settling, Pimpri-Chinchwad’s don Asif Mohamed Iqbal Shaikh alias Asif Dadhi met Ajit Pawar. The purpose of the meeting is not known but it is believed that Asif is desirous of entering politics. The Opposition parties in Maharashtra have found ready-made cannon fodder and are making full use of the opportunity.

BJP Kalyan (East) MLA Ganpat Gaikwad, who fired several bullets at his arch enemies inside a police station, has made several sensational allegations against Maharashtra’s chief minister Eknath Shinde and his son Shrikant, MP. The matter is likely to snowball into a major political storm as this is the first incident of its kind in Maharashtra. According to Gaikwad, a property dispute at Ulhasnagar near Kalyan was at the root of the shocking incident. He has alleged that the father-son duo had been fostering goondaism in the area. Gaikwad has been representing the Kalyan (East) constituency for nearly two decades, becoming a thorn in the side of the Shinde faction. The critically injured Mahesh Gaikwad and Rahul Patil are said to be staunch followers of Shinde and Shrikant. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who handles the home department, however, has become the whipping boy for the Opposition. NCP MP Supriya Sule and state Congress president Nana Patole led the demand brigade seeking Fadnavis’ resignation immediately after the news of the firing spread like wildfire. On the other hand, OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal (Ajit Pawar faction) has ridiculed the demand asking “Did Fadnavis ask the MLA to fire?” A home minister would have to resign a hundred times a day if he is demanded to quit after each criminal incident. But Sharad Pawar has remarked that the incident shows in which direction the state is moving.

Former Union minister Milind Deora is emerging as a frontrunner for one of the Rajya Sabha seats which is among the six that are falling vacant from the state next month. According to the present statistics, all but one seat can be bagged by the three-party ruling alliance. The sixth seat can be won by the Congress party easily as it has the requisite vote quota, which is 42, to win the election. The Congress has 44 members in the lower house of Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar have around 16 MLAs in their camps. Thus, even if they join hands for the election which is held in the open, they will have little chance of any victory. Moreover, the state assembly speaker, Rahul Narwekar, has ruled that the Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde is the real party. Hence, its whip will be binding on Uddhav’s supporter MLAs. Likewise, a hearing is going on about the disqualification or otherwise of the MLAs with Pawar. If the speaker’s ruling goes in favour of Ajit Pawar, the MLAs will have to obey the whip of the breakaway NCP. In that situation, the Congress will be the only opposition party left in the field. Deora has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Given his proximity with Shinde, the hopefuls in that camp will find it prudent to support the former South Mumbai MP.

Senior minister Chhagan Bhujbal is becoming the central point in the whirlwind scenario that is building up in Maharashtra over the state government’s decision to grant reservations to the Maratha caste due to his aggressive stance for protecting the OBC reservations. Chief minister Eknath Shinde and his two DCMs, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar have advised Bhujbal to ‘understand’ the government’s notification in this regard first before making any public statement. In retaliation for some Maratha leaders’ comments, Bhujbal has declared in front of his supporters that he will not hanker for a ministership if there is a choice between his post and his demand. In a bid to reinforce the BJP’s commitment towards the OBCs, Fadnavis has issued a veiled warning.  He said he would approach the party leadership if an eventuality to threaten the OBC reservations ever arose. When Fadnavis was asked about Bhujbal’s statements, he merely said that Bhujbal needs to maintain restraint. He can discuss the matter in detail after both meet. Ajit Pawar, likewise, said it would be necessary to know Bhujbal’s exact grievance and what the government had offered. Perhaps unsettled after several quarters have alerted the Maratha community about the difficulties in the way of securing the reservations, the agitation leader, Manoj Jarange Patil has reiterated his determination to fight out till it is achieved. Both camps are finalising their strategy and are unrelenting about their stands.

The adept handling of the Manoj Jarange Patil-led Maratha agitation not only consolidates the position of chief minister Eknath Shinde but also marks the emergence of Shinde as the dark horse of Maharashtra politics. Shinde, who himself is a Maratha, could also benefit electorally from the politically strong Maratha vote bank, that has been the mainstay of the Pawars — both uncle Sharad and his nephew Ajit — as also the Congress. By successfully containing the agitation on the outskirts of Mumbai, the CM now finds himself one-up over his deputies, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, both of whom nurse ambitions to upstage him. And the backlash is already showing up. Fadnavis has already clarified that police cases will continue against arsonists who indulged in violence against policemen specifying that only courts were authorised to withdraw cases. Shinde had promised withdrawal of all police cases against Maratha activists. Fadnavis supporter advocate Gunaratne Sadavarte has also threatened to challenge the government reservation order in the courts. Chhagan Bhujbal from the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP has also criticised the draft notification from Shinde government terming the reservation as an eyewash that will not stand up to legal scrutiny. The agitation has successfully helped divert attention from Shinde and his team of 39 legislators being called as ‘traitors’ by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena that kept Shinde on the defensive and threatened his electoral stakes. The agitation also helped divert attention from the negative effect of breaking two popular political parties — Shiv Sena and NCP for the BJP.

The Maratha caste’s demand for reservations, although granted by the Maharashtra government, will continue to dominate the state political scene for more time as two major issues are still unresolved. Firstly, there is a Supreme Court petition concerning the demand. The last hearing took place on 24 January but the outcome is yet not known. Perhaps more hearings could be needed. The fate of the reservations would be clear only after the Apex Court declares its verdict. Secondly, agitation leader Manoj Jarange Patil has been firm on his demand that all cases filed by the police in connection with the protest actions must be withdrawn forthwith. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadanvis has made it clear that it will not be possible due to legalities involved. Offences like setting houses afire with family members inside, mounting attacks against the police or torching public property can’t be withdrawn unless permitted by court. But Fadnavis clarified that all other cases will be dropped, as promised by chief minister Eknath Shinde to Jarange. Meanwhile, certain experts have started criticising the CM, suggesting that he has taken the agitators for a ride as the state government is not empowered to give such a reservation at all. To complicate the matter, Jarange has threatened to start another fast unto death if the reservations do not materialise. The ruling side’s insistence that the OBC reservations would not be touched to accommodate the Maratha caste will pose new problems for the government, it is felt.

The political age for young Turks is being reemphasized in Maharashtra again with pole positioning currently underway for suitable appointments to the state council of ministers once general elections conclude in April 2024. Union Minister for micro, small and medium enterprises Narayan Rane’s MLA son Nitesh Rane has consciously donned the saffron robes of Hindutva (over love and land jehad) while stridently ratcheting up his rhetoric by a few notches against the Thackeray Khandaan simultaneously. According to a BJP leader, “When Eknath Shinde was installed as CM, the BJP high command’s diktat was induction of new faces in the state council of ministers that was not done although 20 cabinet berths were filled up. The political debacle in Bihar back then saw the Modi-Shah leadership letting it slide rather than risk political instability in Maharashtra, however, repeatedly rebuffed subsequent attempts at cabinet expansion.” In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi consciously grafted the old crop BJP leadership from Maharashtra into his Union cabinet of ministers, clearing the field for the young Turks in Maharashtra following which Devendra Fadnavis became CM. Vinod Tawde, Sudhir Mungantiwar also became ministers.” Post Lok Sabha elections, young Turks including Nitesh Rane, Gopichand Padalkar, Prasad Lad, Yogesh Sagar and others from the BJP hope to find a berth in the state cabinet of ministers in the run up to the state assemblies in November 2024, unless the BJP high command holds simultaneous polls.

Countdown has begun to handle the situation arising in Mumbai with regard to the massive morcha which is entering the commercial capital of India to demand reservations for the influential Maratha caste. Lakhs of supporters under the leadership of Manoj Jarange Patil have expressed determination to secure reservation. On the other hand, Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde has once again appealed to the morcha organisers to wait for a Maratha caste census report that is being prepared now. After receiving the findings, the matter will be discussed in the state legislature in February to fulfil the assurance to grant the reservation, he has reiterated. While the morcha has been peaceful, the unprecedented response it has been receiving along the way is astounding. Thousands of bhakris and tonnes of rice and vegetables are prepared by many families voluntarily to feed the marchers. On the outskirts of Mumbai, the Agriculture Produce Market Committee has reserved its sprawling premises in Navi Mumbai by keeping its operations closed for Thursday and Friday to accommodate the gathering. Huge police deployments along the route and in Mumbai have been posted to handle the large crowds. The Republic Day celebrations all over will be taking place below the shadow of the morcha. Alarmed by the prospect of taking a slice out of its reservation quota, the OBC community has started gathering its forces to counter the Maratha show of strength. Their next move is awaited.

BJP is a worried party in Bharat today with the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, compounded with on-the-boil Maratha agitations, threatening poll prospects to better BJP’s 303 Lok Sabha tally of MPs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Solapur visit recently, ostensibly to handover 15,000 homes to bidi workers rallying under former Solapur city’s CPI MLA Narsaiah Adam Master, has deeper political purpose for Western Maharashtra. A source familiar with goings on told shortpost.in, “Maratha reservations issue is backed by every common Maratha Manoos. A Maratha DCM (Ajit Pawar) was strapped on to expand chief minister Eknath Shinde’s political reach to woo the Western Maharashtra belt that Maha Chanakya Sharad Pawar lords over.” Modi’s Solapur visit quietly endorsed his blessings for the Krishna-Bheema rivers interlinking project. The brainchild of Pawar senior’s former Maratha DCM Vijaysinh Mohite Patil was launched in 2003 to alleviate water scarcity in six districts and 31 talukas of Western Maharashtra. BJP’s Chanakya, DCM Devendra Fadnavis relaunched the flagship project a fortnight back in earnest (for completion) although (temporarily) rebranding it as the Sangli flood water stabilization (diversion) project due to ongoing legal disputes with Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh over river water utilization. Before 2019 Lok Sabha elections Modi similarly visited Malshiras in Solapur soliciting the Vijaysinh Mohite Patil family’s sway over the Baramati, Solapur, Mhada, Pandharpur Lok Sabha seats (built through blood, political relations over three generations) in Sharad Pawar’s stronghold. PM Modi’s current outreach seeks to blunt the sympathy wave for MVA, negative fallout over Maratha reservations in the ensuing general elections.

The Maratha reservation demand is likely to snowball into a major law and order issue for the Maharashtra government since lakhs of supporters of the agitation leader, Manoj Jarange Patil, have been asked to reach Mumbai in a walking march which is to begin from Saturday, 20 January. Patil has declared that an indefinite fast will start from 26 January if the demand is not met by then. Chief minister Eknath Shinde’s appeal to Patil in particular and the Maratha community in general not to agitate has not evoked much response so far. While Patil is firm on staging the protest march and fasting, the government has continued its efforts to avert any alarming situation in Mumbai or anywhere else in the state. Shinde has repeatedly assured Patil that the government is positive towards the demand and would adopt an enactment accordingly in February in the legislature. He has reiterated his promise that the reservations for other sections of society would not be affected while granting a reservation for the Maratha caste, the most influential group in Maharashtra’s politics. In response, Patil has challenged the government to present the data about delivering the caste certificates to the Marathas as belonging to the Kunbi community. If the government claims that 54 lakh such entries have been found, let it come with the statistics of actual grant of certification, he has challenged.

Even as sparring over the verdict of Maharashtra legislative assembly speaker Rahul Narvekar is raging, the Shiv Sena faction led by chief minister Eknath Shinde has gone on the offensive against the bloc led by Uddhav Thackeray. An immediate fallout could be a threat to start breach of privileges action against rival Sena leader Aaditya Thackeray and MP Sanjay Raut for their utterances against the speaker and the state legislature. In fact, Raut was the object of an inquiry for similar reasons in March 2023, too. This was after members from the ruling BJP and Sena had objected to his alleged comments wherein he had described the state legislature as “chor mandal”. Raut repeated the remarks on 10 January, immediately after Narvekar had pronounced his findings whereby MLAs from both Sena factions were spared of disqualification. Likewise, Aaditya could face action for calling Narvekar ‘shameless’ (Nirlajja) in front of channel cameras. Besides the privilege proceedings, the Shinde camp has started maintaining that as the rival faction MLAs will continue as members of the house, they will have to honour the party’s whip on the floor of the legislature. In a sharp retort, the Uddhav faction has claimed that it has been recognised as a different political party by the speaker so the whip compliance does not arise. Both sides have taken a combative stand, giving ample indications that the battle will go on in court of law as well as on the street.

The storm created by Maharashtra legislative assembly speaker Rahul Narvekar’s judgment, which has rejected demands from both sides to disqualify certain MLAs from either side, will continue in judicial forums and on ground, too. The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has summarily rejected the verdict, announcing that it will knock on the Supreme Court’s doors. The Congress and the NCP have supported Uddhav’s criticism. This situation is expected to cement the I.N.D.I.A front in the state further, accelerating the on-going talks about seat sharing for the Lok Sabha election. On the other hand, the ruling three-party alliance is feeling exhilarated as it appears certain that chief minister Eknath Shinde will continue in office till the Apex Court takes cognizance of the matter. The million dollar question is: when will it happen. Considering the functioning of the Apex Court, it will be too optimistic to expect it to take up and dispose of in a short while. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheduled visit to Maharashtra on Friday, 12 January, to inaugurate the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link project is likely to prove a game changer. The PM is likely to make some major announcement for the state, especially owing to its contribution in the celebrations planned for 22 January in Ayodhya. His comments about the present political development, hence, are awaited with baited breath by both sides.

Erstwhile Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray will emulate his social crusader grandfather Prabhodankar Thackeray, social reformer Sane Guruji and Indian constitution’s architect Dr BR Ambedkar, come January 22. He will seek blessings from Lord ‘Kala Ram’ coinciding with Bharatiya Janata Party’s installation of ‘Ram Lalla’ at Ayodhya. Thackeray received no invite to attend the Ram Mandir ceremony over severed ties with BJP but, through this political masterstroke, intends to hold sway over the 48 parliamentary constituencies in Maharashtra. Thackeray’s party smartly tied up with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) over a seat sharing formula being worked out currently and hopes to attract Dalit votes in addition to his party’s traditional vote bank. Angry Shiv Sainiks anxiously await general elections to vent their rage over alleged political betrayal by former compatriots now under CM Eknath Shinde who rebelled against the heir of the late Sena supremo even as Uddhav has smartly tapped into the Dalit vote bank. In the early 1900s Maharashtra’s social crusader Sane Guruji and subsequently, Dr Ambedkar launched crusades to allow Dalits prayer rights at the KalaRam temple. Thackeray is certain his traditional vote bank will be bolstered by the Dalit community that had even given his party (under late Balasaheb) a run for its money in its own backyard of Mumbai city in the late 1970s. Thackeray has also put the Congress and NCP allies on guard by deputing colleagues to attend I.N.D.I.A’s seat sharing meet while locally insisting on the tiger’s share in Maharashtra.

Wednesday, 10 January 2024, will be perhaps one of the most important days in Maharashtra’s history as state legislative assembly speaker Rahul Narvekar is scheduled to deliver his verdict on the disqualification petitions against chief minister Eknath Shinde and his several supporters. Narvekar has indicated that only highlights of the 500-page judgement will be read out tomorrow at 4 pm in Vidhan Bhavan and the detailed verdict will be available later. Even as suspense is building up about the fate of the three-party government in the state, Shinde and deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis have expressed confidence that the petitions will be rejected by the speaker. Shinde said he had the majority, which was the main test in a democracy. Moreover, the Election Commission had recognised his side as the ‘real’ Shiv Sena and hence he was hopeful that justice will prevail. On the other hand, Sena’s rival faction chief Uddhav Thackeray and NCP president Sharad Pawar have taken grave objections for two meetings Narvekar had with Shinde at the latter’s official residence over the past week. “It is highly suspicious that the judge is calling on the accused,” Uddhav told the media on Tuesday while Pawar felt that it would have been better if Narvekar had not met the CM in this situation. While 34 petitions have been filed in the matter, over three lakh pages of various documents had to be perused, Narvekar has revealed.