For AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal winning MLAs in Gujarat by itself may not be a big deal; about half a dozen or so have won before. But none of the MLAs have stuck around. However, with AAP candidate Gopal Italia winning from Visavadar for the second time in a by-election, Kerjiwal has something to cheer about. In the backdrop of losing power in Delhi, AAP felt it had to make a song and dance about securing assembly seat in Gujarat by-election– where the BJP has been in power for 30 years –that too from a seat– Visavadar which the BJP has never won. In a post on X, Kejriwal bragged that his party won with nearly double the margin compared to the previous elections and claimed that “people of Punjab are very happy with the work of our government and have voted even more in favour of us than in 2022. The people of Gujarat are now fed up with the BJP and see hope in the AAP”. Italia shot to fame during the 2015 Patidar agitation in the state. The seat has been vacant since 2023 after the then AAP legislator Bhupendra Bhayani resigned and joined the BJP. BJP sources said Italia winning the seat wasn’t a surprise. Visavadar has been a traditional Congress seat. “BJP has never won from there. In 2012, Keshubhai Patel won from there as Parivartan Party candidate. Kesubhai later rejoined the BJP.  Sources say more than Visavadar what is of significance for Gujarat politics is that BJP managed to win Kadi assembly seat, a reserved seat in Mehsana. BJP’s Rajendra Chavda won by a margin of over 39,000 votes in a triangular contest taking on both the Congress and the AAP.

The general trend among politicians who move into spacious Lutyens bungalows in Delhi as ministers is to ensure that their children are married in style before their term ends. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal who was voted out of Delhi government on February 8 this year after a three-term stint may have planned well for that; he did not expect to lose power. He was voted out as he built a “Sheeshmahal” for himself and failed to deliver on promises that had disillusioned voters. Yet, he ensured that his daughter Harshita is married off in style. Never mind the propriety of it all. Or else how does one explain that within two months of losing power, Kejriwal was back in the news in connection with Harshita’s wedding with Sambhav Jain, her batch mate from IIT Delhi. What raised eyebrows was the manner in which the wedding and other ceremonies were held at the Kapurthala House, the official residence of Punjab CM in Delhi. Apparently four different events were held. The jaimala and reception were both solemnised at Kapurthala House. A day before the wedding, the engagement ceremony was held at Shangri-La hotel in Delhi on April 17. A video of Kejriwal and his wife Sunita dancing to Pushpa 2 songs has been doing the rounds on X. Punjab BJP president Sunil Jakhar, in his tweet, took a dig at CM Bhagwant Mann for the manner in which Kapurthala House had morphed into a ‘marriage palace of eminence’…before Kejriwal’s daughter’s marriage, AAP MP Raghav Chadha’s pre-wedding ceremonies with actor Parineeti Chopra had been held at the same venue in May 2023. It’s just a matter of time before CM Mann decides to monetise Kapurthala House” — a model of ‘kranti’ to earn revenue by bankrupt Punjab for solemnising marriages — in Khaas Aadmi style.

In an amazing twist, the Punjab farm agitation, going on for 400 days at Shambhu border, abruptly came to an end on March 19.  Police cleared the protesters, less than an hour after farm union leaders –representing 28 farmer unions — returned from Chandigarh to protest sites after a four-hour meeting with three Union ministers — Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Piyush Goyal and Pralhad Joshi. With protestors cleared out of iconic Shambhu, it means AAP has decided it will no longer patronise farm protests and has begun to focus on winning Ludhiana (West) assembly by-election. Why is clearing Shambhu border linked to winning an urban seat like Ludhiana? Sources say police action on farmers came after Ludhiana traders told AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal in a March 17 meeting that it would be difficult to back the AAP if the farmers’ protest continued. Industrialists also wanted the road opened as it was putting a strain on their business. After losing the popular vote in Delhi, Kejriwal didn’t want to risk it in Punjab. He is keen to enter the Rajya Sabha. To ensure this he has nominated Sanjeev Arora, a Rajya Sabha MP from Punjab, as the AAP candidate for the Ludhiana West bypoll. Arora, who will not vacate his RS seat till he wins, has been promised a ministerial berth in the Punjab government, if he wins. Punjab BJP chief Sunil Jakhar slammed the AAP for using farmers for their personal and political interests. “It is the AAP that instigated the farm protests.” He recalled how Punjab had previously informed the Supreme Court that it could not remove farm leader Jagjit Dallewal from the site fearing the situation would become “uncontrollable”. The same government was able to clear the protest site in just 20 minutes, he wondered.

BJP’s loser in two assembly elections as well as for Mayor’s post of Delhi MCD, Rekha Gupta, can’t believe her luck after anointment as Delhi’s chief minister, over giant killer Parvesh Verma and Vijendra Gupta, new Speaker of the state legislative assembly. The BJP high command intends to transform Delhi into the best example of governance although currently exemplifying everything wrong across public welfare parameters following decade long AAP misgovernance. Before Gupta aligned with the legacy of late Sheila Dixit and, more recently Atishi Singh Marlena, PM Modi had requisitioned Lt Governor Vinai Kumar Saxena for Yamuna clean-up. Saxena’s political link up with the Union Home ministry makes crystal clear who (Shah) runs Delhi’s political affairs and, at whose (Modi’s) behest? Political pundits confused over deputy CM Parvesh Verma, who successfully fought against Arvind Kejriwal, being overlooked for CM’s post. Even Vijendra Gupta, a Baniya from Kejriwal’s community, won MLA seat in the last three state assemblies even when AAP won 67 out of possible 70 MLAs. Both shadow CMs, will bolster Delhi’s affairs backing CM Rekha Gupta. Next up is an ambitious plan to ramp up and extend the Metro rail services in and around Delhi. That apart, Union transport minister Nitin Gadkari has set three-year deadline to complete mega flyovers project directly connecting Delhi with UP (Noida, Gurugram, Meerut) and Haryana to island national capital against vehicular traffic flowing through it and headed to these destinations to reduce pollution quotient (AQI) of Delhi. Delhi’s public transport service will also be replaced with 100% pollution free EV buses.

According to the West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress super boss Mamata Banerjee, the absence of alliance between AAP and Congress is the main reason for the defeat of AAP by the BJP in the Delhi assembly elections. But nephew Abhishek Banerjee, party’s general secretary differs. He believes that even if such an alliance had been formed, it would not have made a significant impact. According to him, at best, the alliance could have influenced the results in four or five seats, but it would not have altered the overall outcome. After 27 years, the BJP has stormed to power in Delhi, winning 48 out of 70 seats. AAP secured 22 seats, while Congress for the third time failed to win any seat. Didi voiced that if Congress had been more flexible in seat-sharing with AAP, the results could have been different. She also cited Haryana as an example, arguing that just as AAP’s actions hurt Congress in Haryana, Congress did the same to AAP in Delhi. However, Abhishek maintained that public sentiment was the most crucial factor; Delhi voters wanted change, and AAP failed to effectively counter the BJP’s narrative. Referring to West Bengal’s example, Abhishek stated that when the BJP had claimed that the central government was sending funds, but the TMC was not distributing them to the people, TMC launched a counter-campaign, challenging the Centre to release a white paper on the funds. Although Didi blamed both Congress and AAP for the lack of an alliance, she made it clear that TMC would contest alone in Bengal and return to power with a two-thirds majority.

Even as PM Modi promised to repay the trust Delhi voters placed in his party by vowing  to turn Delhi into a “developed capital of a developed country” and said he will fulfil BJP’s poll promises, clean the Yamuna and ensure accountability for corruption under the AAP regime by promising to present all pending 14 CAG reports in the  assembly, many within the party wondered if it was enough to oust AAP out of the  Delhi state assembly. Or more needs to be done. As Modi said “This is not an ordinary victory. The people of Delhi have driven out AAP-da. The mandate of Delhi is clear.” BJP insiders pointed out that when the new Delhi government will begin its work on making the city garbage free, it is quite possible that AAP could still put a roadblock on its work via the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD). That is because AAP controls the MCD with its 134 councillors; the BJP has 104 councillors. Elections to the civic body were held in December 2022. A section in the BJP feels Modi government should go in for fresh MCD polls in the light of assembly poll win, if it must clean up Delhi. Party sources, however, feel there is no need for any drastic step as many AAP MLAs and councillors may want to cross over to the BJP seeing the public mood. Sources also acknowledged that the BJP hugely benefited getting the lion’s share — an estimated 67% of women’s vote. It was clearly the Haryana effect of Rs 2100 payout under Lado Lakshmi Yojana that had swung the Delhi women to the BJP. They were no longer enamoured by AAP’s free bus rides.

The antics of Tamil Nadu Congress MP Manickam Tagore have not gone unnoticed in the wake of the Delhi poll results. Displaying what was clearly his delight at the AAP taking a tumble in the Delhi elections, the MP had posted on X just two words – ‘Delhi Results’ – along with a video of Arvind Kejriwal declaring that there be no tie-up in Delhi. While schadenfreude is understandable, what the post tries to make is a case that Kejriwal was to blame for the Congress not agreeing to adjustments and the grand old party going ahead to contest in all 70 seats and playing the spoiler. In fact, it was Congress, which often accused the AAP of being the BJP’s B team, ended up playing the role of ‘BJP B’ in the Delhi polls by clearly affecting the results in 14 seats, including that of Kejriwal, and turning the contest around for a BJP sweep. If the INDIA alliance had been in place and Congress contested only a few seats to keep up its Delhi identity and poll ambitions, the verdict may have been totally different with the AAP prevailing in a close contest. What happened in the end was that Congress scored a triple bagel – 000 – in three successive Delhi polls and Kejriwal lost power and Congress spokespersons were looking at the crumbs of the poll verdict and predicting the party’s comeback in 2030.

Anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare has hit out at AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal and held him responsible for his party’s resounding defeat in Delhi assembly election while analysing the pro-BJP outcome in the national capital. Anna said about his one-time ardent disciple that Kejriwal was influenced by power and money so much that he was not ready to listen to alarm signals voiced time and again against his style of functioning. Anna’s recent video clip, released on the eve of the election, had told Kejriwal in no uncertain terms to mend his ways. The message was mostly ignored by the media though shortpost.in had uploaded a news item about it just before the polling. Reiterating his stand, Anna said after the results were declared, “Ideology and actions should be pure in public life. An individual should not carry any stigma so that the electors develop confidence in that leader. I repeatedly conveyed this message to AAP but it was ignored.” An exasperated Anna had asked the voters not to support AAP in this clip. In fact, there are many in Maharashtra who feel smug, ridiculing Anna and supporting Kejriwal. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged Anna’s stand while addressing a BJP victory rally in party headquarters in Delhi. Modi also focused on AAP’s corruption by pointing out that all its top leaders had been in custody. Modi said Anna’s anti-graft crusade had catapulted Kejriwal to become the Delhi CM and expressed happiness that Anna’s stand had been endorsed by the people of Delhi. “Finally, Anna has been liberated from the AAP shroud,” the PM said to a huge applause.

The rout of the AAP in Delhi assembly polls was best summed up by PM Modi on X: “Development wins, good governance triumphs. It is our guarantee that we will leave no stone unturned in improving the overall quality of life for the people and ensuring that Delhi has a prime role to play in building a Viksit Bharat”. For the  BJP which rode to power in Delhi after a gap of 27 years with 48 seats win on the basis of Modi’s guarantees, home minister Amit Shah’s hard work and the unstinted support of RSS network, the results were more or less on expected lines .The Congress which half-heartedly went into the electoral battle at the eleventh hour drew a blank for the third time. INDIA bloc partners like J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah and Samajwadi Party were blaming the Congress for lack of unity in the Opposition alliance. A miffed Congress leader Jairam Ramesh insisted that “2025 Delhi Vidhan Sabha election results reflect nothing more than a referendum on Arvind Kejriwal and his 12 years of misrule.”  and asserted that it was not a vindication of the policies of PM Modi as the AAP had decisively won in Delhi in 2015 and 2020 at the height of the PM’s popularity”. Clearly the Congress which propped up Kejriwal when he was short of numbers in 2013 after defeating Sheila Dikshit to keep out BJP is getting defensive. It is quite possible some of AAP’s top losers like Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia and Saurabh Bharadwaj may have been spared the defeat if there had been a AAP-Congress alliance. BJP’s Parvesh Verma polled 30,088 votes against Kejriwal’s 25,999 while Congress’s Sandeep Dikshit polled 4568. Sisodia’s defeat by 600 odd votes was more stark. He had shifted his constituency from Patparganj to Jangpura to avoid defeat.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s newly released book, Banglar Nirbachon O Amra (Bengal’s Elections and Us) has squarely blamed the Congress party for the BJP’s return to power in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. With the book’s release at the 48th Kolkata International Book Fair, it has become clearer that Didi has decided that her party TMC will go alone in the 2026 West Bengal State Election. In the book, Didi argues that the Opposition alliance, INDIA Bloc, failed due to the grand old party’s rigidity and weak leadership. She further claims that the Congress won its seats in 2024 only because of support from other INDIA Bloc allies. She accuses the Congress-Left alliance in West Bengal of secretly helping the BJP by creating a larger anti-TMC front, which ultimately benefited the saffron party in the state. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections saw the BJP losing ground in West Bengal. The party, which had secured 18 seats in the state in 2019, saw its tally reduced to 12 in 2024. On the other hand, TMC improved its performance, winning 29 out of 42 seats. The Congress managed to win only one seat, while the Left failed to open its account. Incidentally, Mamata has stuck to her policy of supporting the strongest party against BJP, by sending its MP, actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha, to campaign for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections. Political analysts see this as Mamata’s indirect message to Congress. TMC’s participation in AAP’s campaign indicates its commitment to the INDIA Bloc but also highlights the friction between the Opposition allies, especially after Didi’s criticism of Congress dominance within the coalition.

Looks like AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal is caught in a deep mess of his own making by claiming that the BJP government in Haryana had “poisoned” Yamuna waters. Clearly, on a backfoot and out of desperation he sought to paint a scary scenario to Delhi voters. Now it seems these words will come to haunt him post February 5. The Haryana government has filed a case against him for creating a “false alarm” among the people. Meanwhile, Haryana chief minister Nayab Saini to reassure people took a sip of Yamuna to indicate it was safe to drink. Though Kejriwal dismissed Saini’s action as a stunt, what he does not realise is that the Haryana case could prove to be a ticking time-bomb for him. It may explode once elections are over in Delhi. Haryana has filed in the CJM’s court in Sonipat under sections of Disaster Management. The court has summoned Kejriwal to appear before it on February 17. In an explosive claim, Kejriwal had asserted that Haryana was mixing “poison” in the Yamuna water it supplies to Delhi. The reference was to the high levels of ammonia — over 700 times the permissible limit. He said it was because of the vigilance of Delhi Jal Board engineers that this water was stopped. Endorsing Kejriwal’s charge, Delhi CM Atishi even wrote to the Election Commission and sought action against the BJP for “water terrorism”. The Delhi Jal Board, which Kejriwal said stopped the alleged “poisonous” water coming to the national capital, however rubbished the AAP leader’s claim. “These statements are factually incorrect, without any basis and misleading,” Delhi Jal Board Chief Executive Officer Shilpa Shinde said in a letter to the Chief Secretary. Meanwhile, the EC has asked Kejriwal to submit proof of poisoning of Yamuna waters.

Social crusader Anna Hazare has released a video clip on the eve of the Delhi assembly election, obliquely criticising AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal by asking the voters to support that party and leader, who believe in public service and sacrifice. Anna had been instrumental in dislodging the UPA government in 2014 by launching an indefinite hunger strike at Jantar Mantar in Delhi. Among his staunchest workers was Kejriwal, who later became the focus of the anti-Congress politics in the national capital. However, Anna had frowned at this development since it was his stand that his followers should keep themselves away from active politics and especially from power games. This position was reversed by Kejriwal in no time and after that, the two have hardly spoken to each other. In the video, which has been mostly ignored by major political parties, Anna has asked the voters to elect only such people who are having a clean character and who wish to work for the people without expecting anything in return. There is a pointed reference to alcohol consumption since Anna says, “One should not take a stand that I drink and help others to drink too.” This is considered quite vocal since Kejriwal is facing several serious charges concerning the liquor license distribution in Delhi. Anna’s decision to break his long silence just before the Delhi election, scheduled for 5 February, has raised eyebrows since Anna himself has faced charges that he was a stooge of certain forces. Anna has never responded to such criticism and has closeted himself in his village in Ahilya Nagar district in north Maharashtra. In the last many years, no political leader has called on him.

Delhi has BJP worried over outcomes considering 12 of 70 MLA constituencies are dominated by the minority community enjoying majority vote count. Rahul Gandhi, keen on BJP losing even at own party’s cost, predictably commenced campaigning from Muslim dominated Seelampur assembly constituency that counts over 50% voters from the minority community. Gandhi targeted PM Modi as usual, consciously launched broadside against Arvind Kejriwal under pressure from Congress local leaders Ajay Maken, former Delhi CM, Sheila Dikshit’s son Sandeep. For once Congress high command heeded local leaders’ advice to fight alone rather than according AAP walkover on pain of losing out erstwhile political bastion, even suffer further in Punjab like it did for general elections and was trounced. In Delhi 3:4 ratio of coalition drew a blank with BJP clinching all seven Lok Sabha victories. Gandhi’s sudden detour to meet RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav in Bihar Saturday surprised some but was to smoothen political relationship for next-up, Bihar state assemblies at instance of Sonia Gandhi notwithstanding Tejashwi’s hard stance against Congress. Delhi Lieutenant Governor granted prosecution permission against AAP leaders putting Kejriwal in a bind even as conditional bail pre-empts his CM post assumption if AAP wins. NCP leader and Maharashtra deputy CM Ajit Pawar preferred fielding 30 candidates for Delhi polls, including 13 Muslim aspirants, than settling within NDA coalition that accorded solitary seats to Nitish Kumar, Chirag Paswan.  Pawar’s gambit is similar to 30 assembly candidates he fielded in J&K, 24 in Jharkhand although the impact of his national foray is yet to register a winning mark.

The prestigious New Delhi Assembly seat is poised to witness a fierce electoral contest with sitting MLA and AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal pitted against the sons of two former Delhi chief ministers. While the Congress has already declared Sandeep Dikshit, son of  late former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit — who was three time CM — as its candidate, the BJP has asked Parvesh Verma, the son of late former Delhi chief minister Sahib Singh Verma to prepare for the contest. The BJP has so far not declared its list for the Delhi Assembly elections. For Sandeep Dikshit, taking on Arvind Kejriwal would be like avenging his mother’s defeat in 2013 by Kejriwal. The AAP supremo shot to fame by defeating incumbent CM Sheila Dikshit by a margin of over 25,000 votes. In 2015, he again won from the same seat defeating the BJP candidate by more than 31,000 votes. His victory margin was reduced to 2,000 votes in 2020 polls. Of the 70 assembly seats, the New Delhi constituency is one of the smallest assembly seats and is dominated by the government employees as voters. It has 17% SC voters. Also in the fray is former AAP leader, Dr Munish Raizada, a U.S. trained neonatologist, is vigorously pushing for his candidacy as Bharatiya Liberal Party candidate. A boost for him is that at least his main rival BJP, is taking him seriously. “It gives me satisfaction that the BJP candidate’s managers took my name more often than Kejriwal,” says Dr Raizada. As for Kejriwal, it is only his wife Sunita and two children who are campaigning for him. It is possible the AAP supremo is acutely aware that even if he wins, he may not be able to return as CM.

With elections to the 70-member Delhi Assembly scheduled to be held by February, the incumbent AAP was first off the block to come out with its list of 20 candidates. Does this indicate confidence of a party ready to clinch a 4th term? Not quite. The curious bit about the list were massive changes in the list beginning with former deputy CM Manish Sisodia and former minister Rakhi Bidlan. The two top leaders had been asked to change their seats while18 fresh faces had entered the fray. The buzz is Arvind Kejriwal and CM Atishi could also switch their seats. Switching of constituencies after three elections for Sisodia — who had done a jail term for liquor scam — showed that he had perhaps lost political ground in his home turf — Patparganj. He opted to stand from neighbouring Jangpura, a seat which has a mixed population of Sikhs and Muslims. “In the last elections, our candidate against Sisodia gave him a good scare — he was from Uttarakhand and had brought down Sisodia’s margin from 30,000 to 3,200 votes,” pointed out BJP leader RP Singh. Sizeable presence of Uttrakhandi voters has now forced AAP to field Avadh Ojha, a UPSC coaching teacher. But does the move to change seats indicate AAP is on the wane in Delhi? Not quite, concede BJP sources. It is not that the AAP is unpopular. The party may have become weak in several areas. That is why many of their leaders are jumping ship and joining the BJP. “Many are joining us hoping to win an election. AAP stalwarts like Kailash Gahlot who recently joined us are so unpopular that they can’t win again. They are sheer dead weight,” says a Delhi BJP source.

In a massive setback to AAP, Delhi’s transport  minister and Jat leader Kailash Gahlot resigned from the party, citing “grave challenges” and “awkward” controversies in a letter to  AAP  convener Arvind Kejriwal  months ahead of Delhi Assembly polls. He has joined the BJP. Gahlot’s exit is well timed in the sense that it comes days before Maharashtra goes to polls. AAP, an INDIA Bloc partner that has no stake in the state polls.  But it must be said Gahlot’s exit was something that was in the works for some time now. It is believed that the seeds of discord between Gahlot and the AAP leadership were sown on August 15 over unfurling the national flag during the Delhi Govt’s I-Day celebrations. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, who was in jail on charges linked to the alleged liquor policy scam, had wanted Education Minister Atishi to unfurl the flag.  Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena however felt Gahlot was more suitable for the job as he held the Home Department. Meanwhile, Kejriwal indicated that Gahlot had quit as he was under pressure from the ED and IT.  In his resignation letter, Gahlot pointed to how “Political ambitions have overtaken our commitment towards people, leaving many promises unfulfilled”. In an apparent swipe at Kejriwal, he referred to “many embarrassing and awkward controversies like the “Sheeshmahal” — a term used by the BJP to refer to the CM’s residence renovated during Kejriwal’s term costing the exchequer Rs 45 crore.

Aam Aadmi Party chief Arvind Kejriwal had promised before his first Delhi assembly elections that he would live an austere life as a CM. He had said a simple home of four to five rooms was enough for him. Revelations that Kejriwal spent Rs 45 crore on renovating his official home at 6, Flagstaff Road, Civil Lines in Delhi, had triggered a political row in 2023. The issue is back in the limelight with the Public Works Department (PWD) revealing an astonishing inventory of the infamous “Sheesh Mahal”, the luxurious bungalow occupied by him for nine years. The amenities are valued at over Rs 100 crore. The 21,000-square-foot residence features a range of opulent items that starkly contrast with the “aam aadmi” image that Kejriwal and his party AAP, have long sought to project. Among the extravagant features are: 16 Ultra Slim Smart 4K TVs costing Rs 64 lakh, motorised window curtains valued Rs 4-6 crore, luxurious recliner sofas priced at Rs 10 lakh, all highlighting a lifestyle of affluence that has drawn public ire and scrutiny. The inventory was compiled at the request of the Delhi Chief Minister’s Office as it prepares to transition the property to the new CM Atishi Marlena. Kejriwal first came under the scanner in May 2023 after the media leaked details of him splurging taxpayer’s money on personal luxury. However what takes the cake is the “fully automatic, sensor-equipped TOTO smart toilet seats with features like automatic open-close seat, heated seat, wireless remote deodoriser and automatic flushing”. These hi-tech toilet seats were found missing in the audit. One such toilet seat costs between Rs 10-12 lakh. Kejriwal has, however, chosen to maintain radio silence on the matter.

The Congress has bitten the bullet in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh by conceding parity to regional partners: UBT Sena, NCP (SP). In UP, Congress similarly left the field open for Samajwadi Party for 9 state assembly by-polls after refusing to play ball in Haryana with SP and AAP failing to come to power. High stakes play for Maharashtra state assemblies sees a wiser Congress high command establishing a direct link up with UBT Sena Chief Uddhav Thackeray, who refused to continue seat sharing talks unless MPCC Chief Nana Patole was excluded. Sharad Pawar’s earlier political gambit, in tandem with Thackeray, has paid off big time for the Maratha leader. Pawar will now field 85 candidates just like UBT and the Congress, keeping hopes alive for assuming the helm of Maharashtra affairs as CM himself or, deputing party president Jayant Patil if SP NCP secures most seats among MVA partners while cumulatively crossing the 145 assembly seats mark for government formation. The Congress party has factored in the realization of regional alliance partners including DMK in TN, that Congress’ growth adversely impacted their own regional growth. A pragmatic Congress high command focussed attention on government formation in Maharashtra rather than sitting pretty over high Lok Sabha strike rate (17 MPs) in just concluded general elections. Congress’ Maharashtra observer Ramesh Chennitala forged an understanding with Thackeray ensuring seat sharing discussions excluded Patole, who was only authorized to announce the resultant formula ratio of 1:1:1 (85 seats each). For the remaining 33 seats the field is still open.

National media attention over the Haryana/J&K state assembly elections blindsided the rest of India from political goings on in neighbourhood Punjab. Fully fit CM Bhagwant Mann quietly reshuffled his cabinet of ministers stamping his authority in Punjab notwithstanding changing intra-party dynamics. Chetan Singh Jauramajra with nine portfolios to include Defense Services Welfare, Freedom Fighters, Horticulture, mining and geology, water resources, conservation of soil and water got the pink slip. AAP’s Jalandhar MLA Mohinder Singh Bhagat (who had left AAP for BJP pastures) secured ministership and first three of these portfolios. Another newly inducted Minister Barinder Kumar Goyal got the remaining departments and a place in Punjab’s council of ministers.  Another big loser in the political stakes was Anmol Gagan Maan who held Hospitality, Investment Promotion, Labour, Tourism & Cultural Affairs till CM Mann replaced him with another biggie, Tarunpreet Singh Sond allocating to him Gagan Maan’s portfolios and department of industries and commerce as well. In addition to these Sond also takes charge of rural development and panchayat departments that another downsized minister Lalit Singh Bhullar held till September 23. Local Government and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Balkar Singh lost his portfolios but not cabinet rank and will administer the Jails department of Punjab. Ravjot Singh became minister and took over his erstwhile portfolios. Hardeep Singh Mundian is another big new ministerial find for CM Mann and takes charge of housing and urban development (CM held portfolios) along with revenue, rehabilitation and Disaster Management (held by Brahm Shankar Jimpa, who also got the axe. Harjot Singh Bains also found induction as the new Information and Public Relations minister in last month’s reshuffle. Was CM Mann pre-empting a coup? Only time will tell.

If it has been puzzling everyone in the Lutyens political circles how Atishi Marlena, daughter of Marxist parents, was chosen over  the likes of Raghav Chadda, Sanjay Singh and Saurabh Bharadwaj to be Delhi CM, the reasons are apparently not far to seek. It seems she was chosen because she was fully endorsed by Arvind Kejriwal’s wife Sunita, a public activist who had a voice in this decision. The proof of it is the manner in which estranged Delhi AAP Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal who was in Sunita’s crosshairs has come out openly against Atishi’s elevation. Through a series of posts on X (formerly Twitter), Swati has hit out that Atishi as Delhi CM could be a security risk as her own family has fought a long battle to save terrorist Afzal Guru, the man responsible for Parliament attack in 2001 from death penalty. “Her parents wrote mercy petitions to the President several times, that he is innocent, that he should not be hanged, that he is a victim of political conspiracy. How wrong is this? Today, Atishi will become the CM but we all know that she will be only a “dummy CM”. Still, this is a major issue because she will be the CM and this matter is directly linked to the security of the country as well as Delhi. God save the people of Delhi from such a CM”. Swati also posted signed copies of the mercy petition. Of course the Kejriwals may have preferred a rootless Atishi as she will step down whenever told. So far the BJP has not accused her of corruption and it will be difficult for it to do this now. And of course the LG will get little ground support if he blocks files.

In an interesting political twist, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal picked Atishi Marlena, a junior minister and someone considered close to Deputy CM Manish Sisodia as the new chief minister of Delhi, as he decided to step down and hand in his resignation to Lt Governor VK Saxena. Known as the main brain behind Delhi Government school reforms, Atishi played down her elevation as a stopgap arrangement. Making it clear that Delhi and its 2 crore people can only have one CM — that is Arvind Kejriwal. Atishi asked party cadres not to celebrate her elevation. There could be celebration only after Kejriwal gets re-elected in the March 2025 assembly elections. Initial announcement about Atishi was made by a party heavyweight and potential contender Gopal Rai. AAP also made it clear that there will be no deputy CM this time. By choosing to play the woman card and not opting for his wife Sunita as CM, Kejriwal may have tried to buy time with voters but will it blunt the edge on incumbency and non-delivery? Only time will tell. Yet with her rise as CM, Atishi will be the third woman CM of the UT after Sushma Swaraj and Sheila Dikshit. Born in June 1981 Atishi hails from an academic family in Delhi, with her parents, Vijay Singh and Tripta Wahi, both professors at Delhi University. She will be the youngest CM of Delhi at 43.When Kejriwal became CM in December 2013 he was 45. With an undergraduate degree in History from the prestigious St Stephen’s College in 2001, she completed her Master’s from Oxford University as a Rhodes scholar.

AAP’s former CM Arvind Kejriwal has a new political guru in Congress MP and advocate Abhishek Manu Singhvi, instrumental in his enlargement on bail. Initial plans to reward Singhvi with Rajya Sabha seat failed, even blowing up in Kejriwal’s face over l’affaire Swati Maliwal, with Congress accommodating their estranged leader from Telangana instead. Senior BJP leader Mahendra Jain says, the non-resignation drama first, by Arvind Kejriwal, continuing during incarceration over five months and then, precipitating as two-day resignation drama played over worries about Delhi LG, VK Saxena’s imminent intention to seek his resignation following Supreme Court’s diktat against Kejriwal attending CMO, other official duties. While incarcerated, Kejriwal pretended to carry on as CM from jail although no government papers were signed by him over issues of confidentiality and directives of SC. Even his note to the LG seeking approval for AAP’s CM incumbent Atishi (Marlena Singh) hoisting the tricolour on August 15 was rejected by Saxena instead authorizing AAP minister Kailash Gehlot.” The LG took issue over Kejriwal’s access to official CMO letterhead over the communique with SC also curbing jail visitors thereafter. Plans to reach consensus over two days for better half Sunita Kejriwal as incumbent CM were shelved as LG would cite her unelected status with less than five months to state assembly elections in Delhi. With Atishi helming AAP, BJP lost no time raking up her parents’ leftist leaning as ideologues demanding release of parliament attack terrorist Afzal Guru. The saffron party insists moniker ‘Marlena’ was a combination appended to Atishi Singh’s name by parents assimilating leftist philosophers: Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin.

Haryana state assemblies, set for triangular fight between Congress, BJP and AAP, saw Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s timely enlargement on bail suiting BJP’s poll strategy although facing tough anti-incumbency itself. Congress authorized former CM Bhupinder Hooda to finalise poll prospects, refusing to cede 10 assembly constituencies to AAP for pre-poll alliance. Hooda’s son Deepinder, a Lok Sabha MP organized fanfare for Olympian wrestler Vinesh Phogat (a Jat) on her return following the Olympic debacle. She was part of the Jantar Mantar agitation over molestation charges against ex-president WFI and BJP MP Brijbhushan Singh. Julana constituency choice for Phogat, however, raises questions over winnability with Congress never winning the seat and potential loss of face for the party that garnered 10,000 votes at best from here. AAP fielded former WWF wrestler Kavita Dalal against Phogat to further dampen Congress prospects while Kejriwal who steps down as Delhi CM utilizes bail time to canvas against Hooda’s choice of candidates. Brijmohan Shrivastav, Chief National Spokesperson NCP (Ajit Pawar) feels Phogat will emerge victorious in husband Somvir’s home constituency as Jat and Rathee communities will combine in her favour since caste is dominant factor in Bihar, UP and Haryana. Phogat’s recent disqualification at Olympics and perception of BJP not backing her up upset the two communities. It may be recalled that Phogat and wrestler husband Rathee even challenged norms at their wedding ceremony, opting for eight rounds (vows) of holy havan kund including extra phera emphasizing the girl child (Beti Bachao, Beti Padao, Beti Kilao) over gender bias evident in population ratio of Haryana. Will Julana solemnize Vinesh’s Congress alliance too?

Six months after he was first arrested in the liquor policy scam, Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal got bail in the CBI case. The AAP chief will now walk out of Tihar jail having been granted interim bail in the ED’s money laundering case in June. Fifth leader to get bail after AAP leaders like Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh in the same case, Kejriwal’s release may help the AAP go full throttle in its campaign in Haryana — where it will be taking on both incumbent BJP as well as the Congress, which refused to ally with it.  Haryana-born Kejriwal will also have the advantage of testing his acceptability in the state even as AAP rules adjoining Punjab. The bail conditions make it difficult for Kejriwal to return to Delhi CM’s office. It is likely that he may go for an interim CM,  elevate wife Sunita. Legally, the bail verdict has cast the CBI in a poor light as one of the judges invoked “caged parrot” analogy of the coal scam era and dubbed CBI arrest as “unjustified” after Kejriwal had secured bail in the ED case. Lok Sabha MP Sheikh Abdul ‘Engineer’ Rashid, who had been incarcerated in a terror-funding case under PMLA for 5 years, was recently freed by a NIA court to take part in J&K polls. To his surprise, the man who had trounced former CM Omar Abdullah in Baramulla was shocked to find that only fewer people had turned up to listen to him as he addressed his first election rally in Baramulla. Will Kejriwal’s experience be different from Rashid’s?

With the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) releasing its first list of 20 candidates for Haryana assembly elections amidst stalled pre-poll alliance talks with the Congress, it now seems the state is headed for a three- cornered contest. Apparently, the talks were stuck over the number of seats to be contested by the AAP with the party demanding 10 seats while the Congress was only offering five. Haryana Congress leaders have not been keen on accommodating AAP as they feel the Congress under former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda is expected to make a strong comeback after a lacklustre two-term stint of the BJP. Party sources said even Rahul Gandhi himself had been  pushed to accommodate INDIA Bloc mainly  by anti Hooda leaders like Kumari Selja and Randeep Surjewala “Rahulji was otherwise not keen. Considering how well Congress has performed in Punjab In the Lok Sabha. In Haryana, Congress is synonymous with Hooda. Of course Kumari Selja too had gathered a lot of mass support through her yatra. Which is why it is not simply possible for us to hand the goodwill for the Congress on a platter to the AAP,” a senior party pointed out. Sources said 80% of the 90 seats could go to Hooda’s supporters, a handful to Selja’s backers.  In the 2024 LS polls, AAP had contested 22 seats mostly solo across Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat and Assam and had managed to win only 3 seats in Punjab where it is in power.  The party had failed to even open its account in Delhi in spite of its flawed alliance with the Congress. This is what gives the Congress the bargaining chip.

Amid a series of electoral failures, including a hat-trick of zero wins in major elections, the CPI(M) in Bengal is facing growing internal pressure to reconsider its approach and hire an external political strategist. Alimuddin Street, party’s headquarters, has received feedback that the organization’s current state is “disgraceful” and it must consider “alternatives.” Most political parties – BJP, Cong, TMC, AAP and DMK — have from time to time roped in political strategists/consultants. For instance, the Trinamool Congress’s 2021 victory was largely credited to IPAC, led by Prashant Kishor. Likewise Congress party has benefited from strategic insights provided by Sunil Kanugolu. CPI(M) State Secretary Mohammad Salim stated that though the party cannot afford to hire a professional agency, professionalism must be increased. The party had hoped that its alliance with Congress for the Lok Sabha polls would increase its vote share. Leaders had predicted a three-way contest between Trinamool, BJP, and the Left-Congress combine. However, the reality was a two-way fight between Trinamool and BJP, leaving CPI(M) without a seat, and Congress lost key constituencies like Baharampur, where five-time MP Adhir Chowdhury was defeated by TMC’s Yusuf Pathan. Party insiders have highlighted organizational failures, including an inability to deploy agents in polling stations. Again, in the RG Kar incident relating to rape-murder of doctor, where the CPI(M) youth wing DYFI, led protests in Kolkata, the party failed to mobilize at the district levels. Also, it has alienated women voters in the state by terming the Lakshmi Bhandar scheme as “alms”.

Caste dynamics has political formations of India in a tizzy for the imminent Haryana state assembly elections with the BJP set to also launch a new poll strategy to dampen the Congress dream of a clean sweep in the Nuh belt of the state along with others where the minority vote plays a dominant role. The AAP and Congress vowed to fight solo after the zero-voter verdict their alliance evoked in Delhi’s seven Lok Sabha constituencies, then kissed and yet, to make up. While AAP wants 10 seats, Congress is willing to part with only seven. The SP too wants seats to field candidates in Muslim proliferated constituencies. Congress believes minority votes will accrue to itself, particularly in three assembly constituencies in Nuh region dominated Muslim voters. Only former Congress CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda appears worried over his political future. The BJP too, worried over anti-incumbency, wants to buck the political tide and announced 16 OBC candidates, 13 from Jat community with 17 reserved SC seats. Though the OBC community is the majority voter segment in Haryana, Jat community always holds sway over political affairs be it the Lal clan troika (Bansi Lal, Devi Lal) or the Chautala clan among dominant segments of farmer leaders. The BJP elevated another community leader Kiran Choudhary to the Rajya Sabha and will also accommodate her daughter for state assemblies. Similarly, late Jat leader Ajit Singh’s son Jayant Choudhary was inducted into the NDA alliance for the Haryana assembly. The BJP has topped up its poll plans by clearing a slew of farmer packages in the state before the elections were notified in the state to include most of the crops sown in Haryana under the ambit of its MSP protection.

UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath was much in the news recently for launching Uttar Pradesh Digital Media Policy, 2024, under which it was decided to prepare a list of social media influencers who will receive state advertisements for promoting schemes and achievements of the state government. Those sharing information on government schemes, initiatives and projects were offered a choice of earning up to Rs 8 lakh through government’s advertisements. The influencers were to be rated according to the number of subscribers and followers they have on online platforms. These influencers were to be paid a maximum of Rs 5 lakh, Rs 4 lakh, Rs 3 lakh and Rs 2 lakh for their accounts on X, Facebook and Instagram. Yogi’s move provoked a caustic post from Congress leader Priyanka Vadra who tweeted saying, “Jo tum ko pasand vahi baat kahenge,tum dinko agar raat kaho to hum raat kahenge.” She went on to ask in which category will the voices of women seeking justice fall in the social media policy of the UP government? Netizens promptly trolled her as they found that it was not the first time that a state government was using social media influencers. Former Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot had relied on influencers in the run-up state elections in 2023. AAP ruled Punjab had already incentivised influencers.  Around the same time as Yogi, the Congress government in Karnataka too had announced it would engage influencers and other digital media entities with 1 lakh followers to promote its schemes and programmes. In Telangana, CM Revanth Reddy has hired former Deccan Chronicle Editor Sriram Karri as media & communications director.  Of course, media outreach that began in the states has a Delhi dimension too.  It is being said PM Modi has already initiated his series of informal interactions with journos.

The Congress party which could not get senior lawyer Abhishek Manu Singhvi elected from Himachal Pradesh in February this year –he lost the Rajya Sabha election to BJP’s Harsh Mahajan — has been trying to find ways to send him to the upper house. It seems to have finally found a Rajya Sabha vacancy because of defections from BRS to the Congress. Eighty five year-old BRS MP K Keshav  Rao who had two more years in Rajya Sabha in this term, quit as MP, “consequent upon his joining the Congress .” Significantly, the Telangana Government promptly appointed Rao “advisor to the Government with status of Cabinet Minister” on July 6. Keshav Rao making way for Singhvi brings to closure all high drama and efforts to accommodate the learned counsel from AAP’s Delhi quota. Getting AAP MPs like Swati Maliwal or Sanjay Singh to relinquish their RS terms in favour of Singhvi had become too episodic. The Congress finally found a way out when BRS leaders in Telangana began to show interest in joining the party — 6 MLCs, 7 MLAs and one Rajya Sabha MP seemed eager to jump ship.  While chief minister Revanth Reddy saw the   defection of MLCs as an attempt to gain numbers in legislative council, many within his own party say he was executing a BJP plan to finish off the BRS. “Even the BRS guy who defeated me in the assembly election has now joined the Congress,” pointed out an AICC spokesperson, who had contested from Hyderabad.

Amidst allegations of assault by AAP Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal against Bibhav Kumar, personal aide of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal on May 13 and registration of FIR against him, AAP has unleashed a full-scale war in social media to damage Swati. The party released video footage of what happened at Kejriwal’s residence on May 13 to battle allegations of Swati assault. The video recordings are not CCTV footage as CM’s drawing room is not fitted with cameras. It is a video by somebody inside. In unleashing personal attacks on Swati, AAP seems to have completely lost its logic. For a party that initially admitted Bibhav Kumar had assaulted her. Kejriwal deployed his minister Atishi Singh to dub Swati as a BJP stooge. It may be recalled that Kejriwal’s assault of Chief Secretary Anshu Prakash in 2018 had no video evidence because of lack of CCTV images in the drawing room. BJP sources said in her call PCR from CM’s residence, Swati had clearly mentioned that she had been attacked by Bibhav Kumar at the behest of CM (she referred to him in  third person). Oddly, she did not mention him in the FIR. As images of her walking with difficulty to AIIMS for medical check-up and trip to the magistrate to register her statement, it established beyond doubt that she had been assaulted by Kejriwal’s PA. That’s why senior ministers in the government like FM Nirmala Sitharaman and Assam CM Himanta Sarma came out rallying in her support. Delhi BJP leader Manjinder Singh Sirsa pointed out that it was Sunita Kejriwal who had prompted Bibhav to attack Swati. That’s why Kejriwal has gone all out to protect Bibhav. In the FIR, Swati reportedly appealed to Bibhav not to hit her as she was menstruating and in pain. “I repeatedly told him that I am having my period and he should please let go of me as I am in unbearable pain.” It was only thereafter that she called the police.

In a significant development, Delhi Police recorded AAP Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal’s statement in connection with alleged assault on her on May 13 at Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s residence. Her statement to the police comes four days after the incident when she had made two calls to PCR from CM’s residence. On the day of the incident, Swati had gone to the police station to file a complaint but had refrained from doing so and had remained incommunicado. In her initial complaint she had blamed Kejriwal’s aide Bibhav Kumar and another person for assaulting her. It is not clear if her police complaint followed efforts made by Delhi Police to reach her. Delhi’s Additional Commissioner of Police Special Cell and Additional DCP North   visited Swati’s residence. Swati’s complaint to cops is bound to spell trouble for Kejriwal perhaps cancellation of his bail. It is not clear what would be Swati’s fate after this fate — it is quite likely she would not be able to stay in the AAP. There is already talk of Punjab Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha having moved close to BJP.  Taking suo moto cognizance of media reports of Swati being assaulted by Bibhav, the NCW has summoned him to appear before it on May 17. It must be recalled that, two days after the assault, Kejriwal had sent Sanjay Singh to negotiate with Swati. Singh had accepted that Bibhav had attacked Swati. However, instead of keeping promise made to Swati, AAP supremo Kejriwal tried to brazen out the assault incident. He reached Lucknow for a media interaction with assaulter Bibhav Kumar. Sanjay Singh gave vague excuses like Manipur incidents and Prajwal Rewanna to justify non-action on Bibhav. The only silver lining was Congress leader Priyanka Vadra came out in support of Swati notwithstanding her party’s alliance with AAP.  

 A day after former DCW chief Swati Maliwal approached the Delhi police alleging assault inside Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s house, the Aam Aadmi Party admitted that the AAP chief’s aide had “misbehaved” with her. Maliwal, a senior AAP leader and a Rajya Sabha MP, went to the Civil Lines police station on May 13 morning and claimed she was assaulted by Arvind Kejriwal’s personal assistant, Bibhav Kumar. However, she didn’t lodge an official complaint. Curiously a day after the episode, AAP MP Sanjay Singh came forward to acknowledge that Kejriwal’s aide indeed had misbehaved with Maliwal when the latter was waiting to meet Kejriwal at his house. It is not clear why Kejriwal is in a damage control mode now. “A condemnable incident took place. Swati Maliwal had gone to Arvind Kejriwal’s residence to meet him. While she was waiting for him in the drawing room, Bibhav Kumar allegedly misbehaved with her. The CM has taken cognizance of the matter, and he will take appropriate action,” Sanjay Singh said. As per Delhi Police records Maliwal had called the PCR number at 9.34 am on May 13. AAP sources say Swati was most likely being pressured by Kejriwal to vacate her Rajya Sabha seat– a position that is being coveted by his lawyer who lost his RS seat in a draw of lots recently from a hill state. That is why no sooner than AAP leader Sanjay Singh came up with a false narrative of action against Bibhav Kumar, Swati’s ex-husband Naveen Jaihind asked him to stop acting. He also felt there could be a threat to Swati’s life. Meanwhile, Rajya Sabha Chairman Jagdeep Dhankar has informally sought to know if Swati as RS member would be needing security cover.

In a bizarre incident, Aam Aadmi Party Rajya Sabha MP Swati Maliwal was reportedly assaulted at Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s residence by his PA Bibhav Kumar. As per calls made to police PCR from CM’s residence, the police received two calls. At first, the woman didn’t reveal her name. But in the second call made around 9.54 am, the caller said her name was Swati Maliwal and she accused Bibhav Kumar of manhandling her. Oddly Swati, who had headed Delhi Commission of Women for 9 years (July 2015-Jan 2024) did not follow up the assault charge with a written complaint. It is being speculated that she initially took two names — police are not sure if she had directly named Kejriwal. Swati had gone to meet with Kejriwal; she was not in India when he was arrested. Bibhav was denying Swati access to meet Kejriwal. BJP leaders dubbed CM’s office as a “boxing ring”, recalling how Kejriwal had assaulted chief secretary Anshu Prakash (Feb 2018) by calling a meeting of his MLAs at midnight. Bansuri Swaraj, the BJP candidate from New Delhi, claimed it was most likely that it was Kejriwal who must have instigated the alleged assault on Swati. AAP sources said party circles including wife Sunita Kejriwal have resented phenomenal growth of Swati — particularly her nomination to Rajya Sabha in January 2024. She was not seen as a grassroot AAP worker. Within AAP, Swati was seen as someone who was always aloof as she had worked with Kejriwal’s NGO. It is possible with Sunita’s growing clout and say in AAP affairs, one could see more such skirmishes at Sheeshmahal!

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has reportedly made it clear to Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal that he must ensure Kanhaiya Kumar, former JNU student leader and Congress candidate for Delhi’s North-East Lok Sabha seat wins. This is the only seat where the BJP has repeated its candidate, Manoj Tiwari, who is considered to be a popular candidate. With Rahul making the extra push and Kejriwal promising to deliver, BJP sources say the contest will get keen in this seat as well as in South Delhi where the party had changed candidates. In 2019, Rahul’s efforts to get Kanhaiya elected from Bihar did not get adequate support from the RJD (he lost to Union Minister Giriraj Singh). After being in jail for 50 days, Kejriwal, the AAP star campaigner, began his poll campaign .Twenty parliamentary seats in Delhi and Punjab – two states where the Kejriwal-led AAP is in power – will go to polls in the fifth and sixth phase on May 25 and June 1. In his first public interaction, he began with making a wild charge that there was no point in voting for PM Modi as he wouldn’t be around to fulfil his guarantee. He charged that since Modi would be turning 75 next year he would perhaps retire and hand over reins to HM Amit Shah. Responding to Modi’s “retirement”, Countering Kejriwal, both Home Minister Amit Shah and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh clarified that PM Modi will not only complete his 3rd term till 2029 but will also lead the party for “next round of polls”.

In a boost to the I.N.D.I.A front, the Supreme Court granted interim bail to Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal on May 10 — three days after the Enforcement Directorate argued that politicians could not be treated differently from non-politicians in the PMLA case. Kejriwal has been granted bail till June 1 in connection with a money laundering case connected to the Delhi excise policy scam even as his counsel pleaded that his bail be extended till June 4 — that is the day of Lok Sabha results. The court has asked the AAP supremo to surrender on June 2. The interim bail has been granted in order to enable Kejriwal to campaign for the Lok Sabha elections 2024. Senior Advocate Abhishek Manu Singhvi appearing for Kejriwal, stated that interim bail was essential to ensure that Kejriwal had a level playing field in the upcoming elections as Delhi votes on May 25. The ED had arrested Kejriwal on March 21. There is a sense of jubilation over release of the AAP chief in the I.N.D.I.A front with SP chief Akhilesh Yadav and West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee welcoming it. Congress sources, however are not sure if Kejriwal would have polled more votes for the alliance from behind the bars in Tihar or now actively out campaigning across states. Opposing his bail solicitor general Tushar Mehta admitted that “only thing at stake was Kejriwal’s right to campaign for elections, which was not an absolute right to begin with”. Dismissing the objections, the bench headed by Justice Sanjiv Khanna felt “There are extraordinary circumstances for interim bail. We are only examining if those circumstances were met here, in view of the upcoming elections.”

Ever since Sunita Kejriwal and Kalpana Soren –wives of jailed chief ministers Arvind Kejriwal and Hemant Soren — took part in the Opposition I.N.D.I.A rally on April 21 in Ranchi, their role in party politics seem to be getting firmer. AAP leadership now wants Sunita Kejriwal to campaign for its three Lok Sabha candidates in Delhi from April 27.  Sunita’s campaign will be to protest her husband’s arrest, explained Delhi minister Atishi Singh. Sunita Kejriwal will apparently hold a roadshow in East Delhi Lok Sabha on April 27, follow it up with another roadshow in the West Delhi Lok Sabha constituency the following day. She is also expected to visit Punjab, Haryana, and Gujarat.  AAP sources hope people of “Delhi, Punjab, and the entire country will vote in favour of Arvind Kejriwal”. The party has also launched a Lok Sabha campaign focussing on Kejriwal’s arrest by the ED. Titled Jail Ka Jawab Vote Se is a song written and sung by AAP MLA Dilip Pandey.  Meanwhile, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has declared Kalpana Soren, wife of jailed former chief minister Hemant Soren, as candidate for by-election to Gandey assembly seat. Bypoll in Gandey, which fell vacant following the resignation of JMM MLA Sarfaraz Ahmad, is scheduled on May 20 along with Lok Sabha polls in the state. Kalpana, a homemaker with MTech and MBA qualifications, is contesting from a general seat as she is a non-tribal and hails from Odisha. She was previously considered a frontrunner for the position of CM after Hemant Soren’s resignation but faced opposition from Sita Soren, the elder daughter-in-law of Shibu Soren.

It is a big question mark but that does not preclude West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee making it categorical that her party will be playing a significant role if I.N.D.I.A front is voted to power. In her recent poll campaigns, Didi dismissed the claims of NDA winning 400 plus Lok Sabha seats by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. She stated that the claims seemed to be a reflection of nervousness of both leaders. Expressing her assessment of the political landscape, Banerjee emphasized her belief in the resilience of Opposition parties against the ruling BJP. According to her calculations, Bengal goes to TMC, AAP will be the majority in Punjab, Samajwadi Party will garner maximum seats in Uttar Pradesh and DMK will clinch Tamil Nadu. Denying the claims of exiting the I.N.D.I.A front, Didi made it categorical that she’s the one who coined the alliance name. However, TMC supremo criticised the CPI-M and Congress alliance in the state in opposing TMC Is indirectly helping the BJP. Banerjee claimed that the alliance between the two opposition parties is splitting the anti-BJP vote, thereby benefiting the saffron camp. It is for this reason she did not attend several I.N.D.I.A. meetings but maintained relationships by sending her representatives. In her campaign speech, Didi has been driving home the point that if I.N.D.I.A front forms the government then they will do away/relook into NRC, Citizenship Amendment Act and Uniform Civil Code. The Alliance will repeal all discriminatory laws implemented by the BJP.

The arrest of Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal in the liquor gate scam has deeply shaken the decade-old Aam Aadmi Party with a number of its MLAs and MPs looking for safe exit. In fact the resignation of one of Delhi’s six ministers, Dalit leader Raaj Kumar Anand, a day after the Supreme Court refused to provide urgent relief to Kejriwal has  added to unravelling of the AAP at least in Delhi. First, Kejriwal suffered a setback after Delhi High Court dismissed a challenge by him against his March 21 arrest by the ED. The court stated that the central agency was left with “little option” as Kejriwal had ignored several summons in the case. The ED also alleged that Kejriwal was actively involved in using and concealing the alleged proceeds of crime. Thereafter the Supreme Court also did not seem to be in a hurry to provide succour to him.  Meanwhile, desertions in the party began with the lone Lok Sabha member, Sushil Kumar Rinku, a dalit leader from Jalandhar joining the BJP along with Punjab MLA Sheetal Angural. It also set off a buzz that next in line to jump ship would be Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha. In midst of these desertions senior AAP leader Dr Sandeep Pathak took an ostrich-like approach to those wishing to exit AAP. He tweeted “Jho bhajpa (BJP) mein jana chahte hain, unhe tata bye bye“. Punjab BJP chief Sunil Jhakhar found it odd that the AAP should be dismissive of those leaving the party. “Instead of reflecting on the reasons, Dr Pathak has reacted exactly in the same manner as Amrinder Warring of the Congress did when its leaders left Congress to join BJP. This arrogance will prove to be the one of the reasons for the undoing of both their parties”.

Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal must have surprised his party cadre when he named two junior ministers — Aatishi and Saurabh Bharadwaj — as people who were more aware of the now scrapped liquor policy than him. Why did he drag them into the multi-crore liquorgate? Atishi, Oxford educated and first term MLA is famed for assisting now jailed Manish Sisodia in reforming Delhi government schools. She has been with AAP since 2013. Did Kejriwal feel she was a threat to his wife Sunita? Saurabh Bharadwaj, a qualified engineer, may be facing brickbats from Delhites as Water Minister– the water meters are a scam that Kejriwal may have foisted on him. But did Bharadwaj and Atishi deserve to join Kejriwal league of Delhi’s dirty list — Manish Sisodia (in jail and has been dropped) Satyendra Jain (out on bail, no longer a minister) and Kailash Gahlot, Transport Minister was summoned by the ED. Kejriwal who was sent to judicial custody for a fortnight, does not hold any portfolio. Interestingly, Kerjiwal’s jail term came a day after the Opposition rallied behind him on March 31 and condemned ED action against him. A high point of the rally was the clash between the Congress and the AAP over display of Kejriwal cut-outs at Ramlila maidan. The Congress wanted to know why cut-outs of jailed ex-Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren were missing. Post Congress protest, Kejriwal’s cut-outs were removed. Sunita Kejriwal and Kalpana Soren displayed bonhomie by publicly hugging each other. Meanwhile it was the ED which informed the AAP leaders about Kejriwal’s claims. About how “Vijay Nair didn’t report to him but to Atishi and Bharadwaj and his interaction with Vijay Nair was limited.

Akin to its strategy in Bihar and Punjab, the Congress has also decided to have friendly fights against its fellow I.N.D.I.A front constituents in Maharashtra as well. The Congress may put up candidates in about six seats against its own alliance partners, particularly the Shiv Sena like they are doing against the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Bihar and Punjab. These fights are likely to play out in places like Sangli, Bhiwandi, Mumbai North West and Mumbai South Central where the party is convinced it has a strong standing. Congress is under pressure from its aspirants like Sanjay Nirupam who is said to be exploring other parties to fight from Mumbai North West constituency. Congress’ Mumbai party chief Varsha Gaikwad, who represents Dharavi assembly constituency, also is said to be keen to contest from Mumbai South Central. The party is also upset with the snub from Uddhav Thackeray, who unilaterally declared candidatures for five seats, even before the Maha Vikas Aghadi had officially decided on it. The Sangli seat has particularly become a bone of contention between the alliance partners and key Congress aspirant Vishal Patil dashing off to complain to the high command against Thackeray’s high-handedness. However things turned sour when Uddhav refused to budge and Sena’s Sanjay Raut even underplayed the development convinced that Congress won’t let seat-sharing affect their alliance.

Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal’s wife Sunita Kejriwal made a soft, public outreach to Delhi citizens via a social post.  Dubbing her husband’s arrest in a money laundering case by the ED “as a betrayal of people of Delhi” Sunita in a post in X in Hindi went on to describe how her husband always stood with the people of the national capital. Picking up from Kejriwal’s sound bite outside the PMLA court about his life being dedicated to his country “whether inside (jail) or outside”, Sunita asserted that “the public knows everything”. She went on to charge PM Modi of suppressing the voice of a three-time elected CM out of “arrogance of power”. “Modiji is trying to crush everyone. This is a betrayal of the people of Delhi. The public knows that he is Janardan. Jai Hind”, she tweeted. Sunita’s post is interesting in the sense she is widely speculated to emerge as Kejriwal’s favourite choice to replace him as CM if he ever were forced to vacate office. It is however not clear if the AAP rank and file will readily accept her. There are veterans like Gopal Rai who may have a grip on the party, but it is unlikely he may get Kejriwal’s nod. It is likely that party strategists such as Sandeep Pathak may have asked Sunita to test the political waters. Sunita had taken VRS from the IRS in July 2016, nearly three years after her husband became CM. A 1993-batch IRS officer with Master’s in Zoology, Sunita had met Kejriwal, a 1995-batch IRS officer, during a training programme at Bhopal. Though not known to show interest in party matters, Sunita had taken a keen interest in redesigning CM’s official residence that goes by the moniker “Sheesh Mahal”. Interestingly, on her X timeline are posts about BJP’s electoral bonds and voices from Delhi in support of her husband.

The Enforcement Directorate (ED) arrested Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal after carrying out searches at his official residence and questioning the AAP leader for nearly two hours in connection with the money laundering probe linked to the now scrapped liquor excise policy. The arrest comes hours after the Delhi HC refused to grant him interim protection from coercive action in the money laundering probe. In fact, the HC judges sought to know why Kejriwal was only being summoned by the ED — nine summons had been issued — and he had not been arrested so far. Kejriwal’s arrest had become inevitable ever since the ED had taken BRS leader K Kavitha into custody last week. AAP leaders Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh are in jail for the last several months. Time was really running out for the so-called “anti-corruption” hero. According to the ED, Kavitha was allegedly linked to a ‘South Group’ lobby of liquor traders who were trying to play a bigger role in the now scrapped Delhi excise policy. Vijay Nair, one of the accused, allegedly received kickbacks worth at least Rs 100 crore on behalf of AAP leaders from the ‘South Group’, said to be controlled by Sarath Reddy, Kavitha and Magunta Srinivasulu Reddy. Politically, Kejriwal’s arrest is bound to impact the performance of AAP in Delhi as well in Punjab. In fact, Congress sources wondered if the so-called tie-up between the parties would even last in Delhi. All this only means with the arrest of two CMs by the ED — Kerjriwal and Hemant Soren– the I.N.D.I.A front looks much hobbled.

When Rajya Sabha terms of 7 Union ministers recently ended and they were not renominated, there was an expectation that they would be asked to contest the Lok Sabha elections. Significantly, at least 5 of them figure in the BJP’s first list of 195 candidates for 2024 Lok Sabha elections along with PM Narendra Modi (Varanasi) and Home Minister Amit Shah (Ahmedabad). Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya is contesting from Porbandar, junior IT Minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar has been pitted against incumbent MP Shashi Tharoor (Thiruvananthapuram), Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav will face-off in Alwar, Fisheries Minister Parshottam Rupala in Rajkot and junior EAM V Muraleedharan will contest from Attingal (Kerala). The party has also tried to fortify its foray into Kerala by fielding actor Suresh Gopi(Thrissur.) and Anil Anthony (Pathanamthitta). What clearly showed that PM Modi is not taking challenges of AAP-Congress alliance in Delhi lightly was the way the party dropped 4 of the 5 sitting MPs. In Chandni Chowk the party decided not to experiment and opted to field Praveen Khandelwal; he heads the traders’ body.  Yet, the biggest surprise of course was in fielding a very young and energetic Bansuri Swaraj, daughter of late Sushma Swaraj for the New Delhi Lok Sabha seat. The complaint against incumbent MP and Union Minister Meenakshi Lekhi was that she remained aloof and inaccessible most of the time. She was known to be rude to the demands of her voters and direct them to councillors. If PM Modi   gave a fresh face for New Delhi, how did Hema Malini pushing 76 managed to get the Mathura Lok Sabha seat? Was it an endorsement of her work in Mathura? Ought to be.

Will Bollywood actor Akshay Kumar or Rajiv Bhatia as he is known be fielded by the BJP from Delhi’s Chandni Chowk  Lok Sabha seat?  Well there is a strong buzz that the actor who grew up in Old Delhi could be fielded from the Delhi seat more so since the AAP and the Congress have decided to contest 2024 seats in an alliance. The AAP has already announced four candidates for Delhi. Chandni Chowk is going to be fought by the Congress. The AAP-Congress alliance will certainly impact the BJP’s approach to candidate selection in Delhi since the contest is now bipolar and not three-cornered as it was in 2019. It is believed the BJP, which won all seven parliamentary seats of the national capital in 2014 and 2019, may field the actor. Speculations about Akshay entering the election fray gained strength ahead of BJP’s Central Election Committee meeting on February 29 which is expected to clear about 150 names. Akshay may be replacing former Union minister Dr Harsh Vardhan who won the Chandni Chowk seat twice in 2014 and 2019. Almost preparing for public life, the actor had acquired Indian citizenship, giving up his Canadian passport last year. Posing alongside the snapshot of his citizenship certificate, 56-year-old Akshay had conveyed his emotions, stating, “Dil aur citizenship, dono Hindustani. Happy Independence Day! Jai Hind!”.

When it comes to alliances, it seems, the Congress seems to be getting a raw deal – whether it is from a newbie like AAP or even from an old ally like Samajwadi Party. The Congress with diminishing bargaining power it seems did not have much say on the seats it would contest in states — be it in Gujarat or UP. It was as if everything was left to AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal or SP chief Akhilesh Yadav to finalise the seat sharing pact. That is probably why the party did not bother to resist claims of AAP for Bharuch Lok Sabha seat — a constituency once represented by Sonia Gandhi’s close aide and AICC treasurer Ahmed Patel — or Farrukhabad Lok Sabha seat once represented by former Union Minister Salman Khurshid.  That is why Khurshid, who is a CWC member, did express his disappointment that his Lok Sabha constituency was not part of the Congress-SP alliance. So did the late Patel’s children– Faisal and Mumtaz. They both gave voice to disappointment among Congress workers in Bharuch over the AAP-Congress poll pact. Faisal went a step further to assert that Bharuch which has been with the BJP since 1989 can be won only if the Congress contests from there. Meanwhile, the Congress hopes to wriggle out of this unequal electoral pact thrust on it by AAP only if ED finally catches up with Kejriwal.”If ED arrests Kejriwal, our alliance will end. We are hoping it will happen soon,” admits a Congress leader.

The AAP and the Congress are set to jointly contest from Delhi, Haryana, Goa,  Chandigarh and Gujarat.  As per the pact, AAP will contest four of the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, two of the 26 seats in Gujarat, and one of the 10 seats in Haryana, while the Congress will contest the rest of the seats in these states. In Gujarat, the AAP will contest two – Bharuch and Bhavnagar – and in Haryana, it will contest the Kurukshetra seat. Late Congress leader Ahmed Patel’s children — Faisal and Mumtaz — have opposed giving away their home turf Bharuch to AAP. Incidentally the Congress tie-up with AAP comes full circle nearly a decade after the party first came to power in Delhi riding an anti-Congress wave in 2013. Kejriwal with 28 MLAs was propped by the Congress with its 8 MLAs. It is clear that Kejriwal, who had tasted a tough fight during MCD polls to take control of the Delhi civic body in December 2022 is not keen for a repeat in May 2024. He had boasted about limiting BJP to 20 seats in the 250 member MCD. The BJP went on to notch a cool 104. “It is clear both the Opposition parties are too scared to face the Modi juggernaut alone,” said a BJP poll strategist. It also shows that by joining hands with the Congress, Kejriwal has shelved his PM ambitions for now. It is not Kejriwal alone who has seen his limitations. Congress stalwart in Haryana Bhupinder Hooda also knows there is no way he can beat the BJP bulwark in Lok Sabha. By pitting AAP in Kurukshetra — a seat held by state BJP chief — Hooda has tossed an unwinnable seat in AAP’s lap and got an alibi for poor show in 2024.

Who is behind the farmers’ agitation near Delhi? The two Punjab-Haryana border points – Khanauri and Shambhu – have been the epicentre of the clashes as police personnel fired tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse the farmers trying to march to Delhi. Farmers have rejected a government offer on MSP for five crops and crop diversifications to save the water table. The basic aim of the protesting farmers is not to secure a MSP for all the 23 crops that they produce– they want a law guaranteeing MSP. Such a law farmers argue will ensure that market prices will not go below the MSP. It is also possible that it could force the government to buy farm produce that is not picked up by the market. The thrust of the protests organised by AAP and the Congress is to take the sheen out of PM Modi’s popularity and continue the protest till the April-May Lok Sabha elections. The game is to pull Modi down politically. In this game, while AAP in Punjab is trying to project itself as “friend of the farmers”, with its chief minister Bhagwant Mann playing mediator in the Centre-farmer talks, the Congress, which rejected Swaminathan Committee report in 2006, has also lent support to the farmers’ demands. Punjab urgently needs sustainable agricultural practices. But AAP and Congress are intent on backing the agitation to downsize Modi.

The poll alliances in Tamil Nadu seem far from settled. Asked about the sealing of seat-sharing arrangements in the I.N.D.I.A bloc, all that the senior DMK minister Duraimurugan would say was that things were moving smoothly. But there are tugs and pulls, with at least one major party in AIADMK trying to change the scenario by offering more seats (12) to the Congress than the DMK (6 or 7) is ready to offer. Also, voices are being heard in I.N.D.I.A bloc from the likes of the AAP that the bloc may be better off without the DMK as the party’s stand on Sanatana Dharma has spoilt the Hindu vote bank for the alliance. But given MK Stalin’s loyalty to members of the Congress first family, it is unlikely that the matter of a few seats would see the alliance come unhinged. Stalin might convince the DMK to allot nine seats to the Congress to keep the front intact. His son has also been told to tone down the anti-Hindu rhetoric till the elections and not to sully the pitch to the electorate, which already has reason to ditch the DMK because of the corruption clouds that are gathering over a few major figures. The Muslim also have reasons to feel cut up as they see the DNK as not having done enough for them, including in the non-release of prisoners.

Guess it is in the nature of I.N.D.I.A. front, you could be a member of the group and still not belong to it. Well that is what is happening to at least two main stakeholders in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc — the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Leaders of both the parties met for the first time early this week to discuss seat sharing arrangements for the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, with the Congress expressing the desire to contest four of the seven Lok Sabha seats, and the latter seeking to expand the scope of the discussion to include an alliance in Gujarat, Goa, and Haryana. The Congress leaders, however, told AAP representatives that their current mandate was limited to discussing seat sharing in Delhi. Interestingly, the Congress leaders did not even mention Punjab. Congress sources pointed out that the AAP was mainly interested in increasing its footprint across India and was keen to fall back on the Congress apparatus to grow. Delhi Congress leaders are not too comfortable working with Arvind Kejriwal. With ED noose tightening on Kejriwal, political analysts point to the way even an obliging Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann — who has been relentlessly flying Kejriwal around in state aircraft – had decided to make himself scarce for once and pushed off for a 4-day vipassana break in Andhra. “Our Punjab unit is determined to fight the Lok Sabha polls on their own. But for the electricity subsidy, the AAP Government has done nothing here,” says a Congress MP from Punjab.

As Maharashtra gears up for yet another political fast fest called by Manoj Jarange Patil, analysts can’t help drawing parallels with state’s another fasting icon — Anna Hazare.  Maratha leader Jarange Patil call for an indefinite fast from January 20, 2024 onwards — his third since his last 17-day fast in September. Just like Jarange Patil, Hazare was also known to send shivers down the spine of governments with his call for fasts on various issues be it demanding Lokpal Bill or action against corrupt ministers or demanding stronger Right to Information (RTI) Act. Both attracted huge crowds and sustained media attention. Their fasts follow the same pattern — delegations of ministers turning up to negotiate terms and chief ministers turning up personally to end the fast by offering orange juice. This was true of Hazare who had the honours done for him by Devendra Fadnavis in 2018, a model followed by current CM Eknath Shinde for Jarange Patil in Jalna recently. Both were neither MPs, MLAs nor MLCs and yet managed to wield enough clout to get their way with the government of the day.  Both gave distinct identity to their hometowns — Ralegan Siddhi (Hazare) and Antarwel Sarati (Jarange Patil). Anna Hazare’s famous fast at Jantar Mantar in Delhi had led to the birth of the Aam Aadmi Party that is now in power in two states. So far, Jarange Patil claims to have no political ambitions, but it now remains to be seen if his Maratha reservation movement will disrupt existing equations in state.

Congress leaders are still wondering whether former PCC chief and ex-CM Kamal Nath is overplaying his confidence of winning Madhya Pradesh assembly elections. Or does he have something up his sleeve? His latest warning to state police and district administration officials, it was felt, betrayed more a sense of bluff and bluster, than real confidence. Imagine a person who was briefly CM saying “No one will be spared, six more days are left, do whatever you want to, but you also have to spend the next five years under a Congress regime.” Party sources conceded that such hollow threats by Nath were bound to be counterproductive in a close contest with the BJP. Attacking the Congress as “Dhamki ki Dukan”, the BJP feels the upcoming assembly election in 2023 for 230 seats is expected to witness largely a closely contested battle between the BJP and the Congress. In addition to these two major parties, the Samajwadi Party and AAP have also nominated their candidates for the polls. The BJP has pledged to offer free ration to the underprivileged for the upcoming five years and provide LPG cylinders to women at a cost of Rs 450. Additionally, the BJP is committed to establishing the Madhya Pradesh Institute of Technology and the Madhya Pradesh Institute of Medical Sciences if it secures victory in the state. Another key promise from the BJP is the provision of 100 units of electricity for Rs 100.