Political attacks against embattled minister Dhananjay Munde and his cousin Pankaja Munde, a cabinet minister in Maharashtra, are becoming more and more damaging for the Mahayuti government since they indirectly target the law and order situation in the state. The state’s atmosphere has been in a spin ever since a village sarpanch in the district, Santosh Deshmukh, was brutally murdered 19 days ago. The flurry of allegations was started by Beed district BJP MLA Suresh Dhas. Now, another MLA from the district, Prakash Solanke, who belongs to the NCP led by deputy CM Ajit Pawar, has joined the melee. Both have demanded that Beed’s situation will not improve unless chief minister Devendra Fadnavis himself accepts the responsibility as its guardian minister. This is seen as an oblique criticism of Munde. Incidentally, both have attracted ire from within the Mahayuti since Ajit Pawar’s spokesman Amol Mitkari has charged that it is a smear campaign to damage the reputations of Dhananjay and Pankaja. Till now, Fadnavis as well as deputy CMs Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar have been maintaining that the guilty will be punished. However, the police department’s failure to nab the three absconding suspects has pushed the Fadnavis government in the dock. Of the three, Walmik Karad, is closest to Dhananjay. Pictures of them hugging each other have gone viral. Dhananjay has admitted their intimacy but has claimed that those responsible for the murder of Santosh Deshmukh deserve severest punishment. This stance has not pacified the local people, who will hold a protest march to demand immediate action by the authorities.

Even as the dust is settling over the internecine acrimony about the allocation of portfolios in the ruling Mahayuti alliance, a new wave of one-upmanship has erupted about the appointment of guardian ministers. As there are more than two or three claimants to grab the powerful position, the competition is intense. Moreover, as there are 36 districts in Maharashtra while the number of ministers is 41, it is obvious that some of them will be ejected out of the race. Another major issue of contention is the guardianship of Pune and Thane districts, which are politically very important for every party. In Pune, deputy CM Ajit Pawar was the guardian minister under the government of Eknath Shinde till recently. Now, the BJP and the Shiv Sena (Shinde) feel it is their turn to occupy the position. Similarly, in Thane, deputy CM Shinde wishes to become the district guardian minister. However, the BJP is keen to obtain the turn this time. Senior BJP minister Ganesh Naik and Shinde have been at loggerheads for long and the tussle between the two seems unavoidable. In neighbouring Raigad district, NCP(Ajit) boss Sunil Tatkare’s daughter Aditi is trying to retain the responsibility though Shinde’s supporter Bharat Gogawale is determined to wrest it from her. Sambhaji Nagar, another sensitive district, is claimed by Shinde’s soldier Sanjay Shirsat while BJP’s powerful minister Atul Save, too, is considered a strong claimant. Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is now busy untangling the rider.  

Controversial minister Dhananjay Munde is now facing public ire over the murder of Massajog village sarpanch, Santosh Deshmukh, last week in Beed district. Allegations abound regarding Munde’s close associate Walmik Karad being the mastermind of the gruesome broad daylight killing in Beed district, the fiefdom of the Munde clan for several years. Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has announced a judicial inquiry into the shocking incident and has replaced the district police chief. However, as this could not pacify the local people, deputy CM Ajit Pawar visited the village immediately after the legislature’s winter session was over as Munde is one of his staunch supporters in the NCP. Pawar was greeted with demands to remove Munde from the council of ministers. The situation has a caste angle as the deceased Deshmukh was a Maratha while Munde and Karad belong to the Vanjari community, a prominent OBC section. Pawar now has been asked by a Maratha delegation to forthwith remove Munde from the cabinet. A memorandum submitted to Pawar has levelled serious allegations against Munde. When Pawar reached Beed to interact with the Deshmukh family, he promised the bereaved that no guilty would be spared. However, the villagers were angry since Ajit Pawar did not meet them. Munde’s absence from the legislature for the last three days and the refusal of his cousin Pankaja to comment on the incident, too, have added to the gravity of the situation. Munde is expected to come out with his version so#WalmikKarad

The Thursday (Dec 19) visit of BJP and Shiv Sena (Shinde) MLAs to the RSS headquarters in Nagpur has become a hot political topic though there are other reasons, too, for intense politicking. Firstly, the MLAs belonging to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar did not join the event. Secondly, those disgruntled due to their non-inclusion in the council of ministers have started expressing their anger openly. Like earlier two occasions, Ajit Pawar and most of his followers distanced themselves from the visit organized by chief minister Devendra Fadnavis. The presence of former CM Eknath Shinde and his MLAs proved to be another highlight. However, the discontent brewing within Mahayuti on other counts is now becoming more vocal. Political heavyweight Chhagan Bhujbal was the first to articulate it. His open criticism of Ajit Pawar surprised many since he had stayed by the side of Pawar all through. Now, there are reports that some of Bhujbal’s supporters want him to join the BJP to end his political wilderness. So far, Bhujbal has maintained that he is with the NCP (Ajit). The other notable leader to become the subject of political speculation is the legislative council’s deputy chairperson Neelam Gorhe. Her detractors, mainly the recent Sena (UBT) entrant Sushama Andhare, have started hinting at Gorhe’s plans to go with the BJP. Gorhe, too, has not reacted to the talk. Ajit’s sudden disappearance for two days from the winter session only added grist to the grapevine. His explanation that he was down with a throat infection is hardly swallowed. More murmurs are expected to be heard once Fadnavis announces the allocation of the portfolios.

The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has started preparing for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election, expected to take place early next year. This will be the fight for political survival for Thackeray because the Sena has been in power in India’s richest civic body since 1985. Taking stock of the situation, other political parties, too, have begun their planning. The picture this time will be fundamentally different since the BJP has emerged as the largest party in the state after the assembly election. Its estrangement with the Sena (UBT), which split in 2022 owing to Eknath Shinde’s decision to walk out of it, will be a major factor in the coming election in which the Congress will be an insignificant player, given its lacklustre performance in Mumbai and the state as a whole. Equally exasperating is the condition of the state Congress committee as its president Nana Patole is perceived as an ineffective leader by the rank and file. The BMC’s last election saw the Sena winning 84 seats in the 227-member house while the BJP had captured 82. Owing to the alliance ethics, the BJP had made no effort to bag the mayoralty of the financial capital of India. However, the BJP is not prepared to take any chance this time and a decision about its Mumbai president is likely to be taken soon. Sitting chief Ashish Shelar is among the hopefuls though his inclusion in the council of ministers could be a decisive factor in the final choice.

The swearing-in ceremony of the council of ministers of chief minister Devendra Fadnavis held in Nagpur on Sunday (Dec 15) will be remembered for various interesting features. While such a ceremony has taken place in the second capital of Maharashtra after a gap of 33 years, the focal point of that time, Chhagan Bhujbal in 1991, was conspicuous by his absence since his name was not in the list of the ministers of the second Mahayuti government. Similarly, prominent names like Sudhir Mungantiwar of the BJP and Dilip Walse Patil of the NCP (Ajit) were found missing though Walse, the former assembly speaker, was seen in the front row of the invitees. As announced by deputy CM Ajit Pawar, the term of all the ministers will be of two and a half years. Each has signed an undertaking accepting the condition. This, too, has happened for the first time. The rationale behind the stipulation is that since there are many hopefuls to become minister, some of the present will be asked to work for the organisation so that certain new faces can be accommodate at that future date. Barring a minister or two, all of them took oath in the name of God. Senior minister Mangal Prabhat Lodha was the lone inductee to take oath in Sanskrit. The Fadnavis team has four women, a sort of record since the outgoing government had only Aditi Tatkare, as a minister of state. Hence, the much talked-about ‘Laadki Bahin’ Scheme had been identified with her, making her victory in the assembly election easier.

On the day the new ministerial team was being sworn in at Nagpur, another important development was unfolding in Mumbai on Sunday (Dec 15). The two Thackeray cousins, Uddhav and Raj, attended a family function at a five-star hotel in the suburbs though it is not said that they did not hold a conversation, or even shook hands. The event was a function related to the wedding of Shaunak Patankar, a nephew of Rashmi Thackeray. She made it a point to welcome brother in law Raj, who has estranged from the family since 2006. Shaunak’s father Shridhar is Rashmi’s brother. Although supporters of both leaders maintain that not much should be read in the development, many of them have been insisting in private that the two Thackeray cousins should join hands to create a strong pro-Marathi force again. However, there are many ifs and buts. Uddhav’s animosity towards the BJP and Raj’s reiteration that he will follow the saffron line in the future will be the two decisive points. The last time they met was when Uddhav was hospitalised and Raj had driven him for the treatment. Barring this meeting, they have avoided each other in public. However, as nothing is impossible in politics, both leaders will be under a scanner from both sides, the Maha Vikas Aghadi and the Mahayuti.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar has once again monopolised the centre stage following reports that a top leader of his party has held talks with a prominent BJP Union minister in Delhi. The political grapevine is buzzing with different versions since the meeting is believed to have occurred at industrialist Gautam Adani’s Delhi residence. In fact, Pawar started hitting the headlines on Thursday (Dec 12) morning as the news that his nephew Ajit Pawar and a couple of other NCP (Ajit) leaders had reached the patriarch’s residence. Ajit later said that being a family member, he had greeted his uncle on his birthday and nothing unusual should be read in the visit. Ajit was accompanied by Praful Patel and Sunil Tatkare, both very close to Sharad Pawar till the recent split in the NCP. The name of Adani added grist to the gossip since the industrialist had visited Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis just a couple of days ago in Mumbai. The Adani group continues to BE target of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and Shiv Sena party chief Uddhav Thackeray. In the past too, Adani has been meeting Pawar off and on. The presence of Fadnavis in Delhi on Thursday proved to be another trigger to speculate that the political scene of Maharashtra was likely to undergo another overhaul. Pawar’s hot and cold relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi has always remained an intrigue. Hence, his followers are unable to predict which way he can turn.

Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray’s plans to attend the Winter Session of the Maharashtra legislature beginning from December 16 at Nagpur will prove to be a game changer, his followers feel. Thackeray’s continued distance from the state legislative council proceedings over the past year are discussed by his party members in hushed tones since the aggressive direction needed to corner the BJP-led three-party government somehow lacks as far as his Sena is concerned. Council’s leader of the Opposition Ambadas Danve (of the Sena UBT) lacks the image and articulation which are vital for any LoP to humble the ruling side. Now that the new government led by Devendra Fadnavis has decided to appoint former CM Eknath Shinde as leader of the upper house, Danve’s limitations will be felt more vividly. Thackeray’s intermittent presence in the council ever since he resigned as chief minister in 2022 has been noted more due to his statements outside the house. He has hardly made any worthwhile speech on the floor. Therefore, his plans to remain present for the Winter Session have revived the hopes of his followers, who wish to witness his attacks against the BJP and the Sena led by Shinde. It is being recalled that Thackeray did not attend the recent three-day session of the legislature in Mumbai, held after the assembly elections. According to present indications, Thackeray will reach Nagpur well in time for the week-long session, which will be a stormy affair, focussing on settling political scores.

Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is now engaged in performing a balancing act between the Shiv Sena led by deputy CM Eknath Shinde and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) founded by Raj Thackeray. Keeping in view the coming local body elections, it will be a priority for Fadnavis to prevent any fissures in the Mahayuti alliance and to enhance its electoral might at the same time. As part of this strategy, MNS can become a crucial factor in bigger municipal corporations like Mumbai, Pune and Nasik. The Sena (UBT) still has considerable clout in these areas and any split in the Mahayuti vote bank can prove decisive for the outcome since the winning margin can be very narrow, given the possibility of multicolour fights. MNS chief Raj Thackeray had taken a unilateral decision to contest the assembly election for which he had fielded 125 candidates. But not a single victory came his way. Immediately after the BJP’s spectacular score was announced, Raj announced his unconditional support for the new government led by Fadnavis. On the other hand, the Sena led by Shinde is insistent that no decision about MNS should be taken without first holding consultations with him. Therefore, Fadnavis will have to wield his political skills to the hilt to keep the flock together. Shinde’s uneasiness in accepting the deputy CM’s post is no secret. Hence, placating and persuading him to accept the MNS will be the next priority for Fadnavis.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar has raised a question mark over the assembly election outcome in Maharashtra but has desisted from making any direct allegations against the EVMs or the Election Commission. Pawar’s observation has come against the backdrop of his visit to Markadwadi in Solapur district. Some of the villagers had organised a paper ballot polling in the village to protest against the EC’s declared voting figures. However, the move was abandoned after the government banned any such attempt. Pawar visited the village to articulate the people’s right to express discontent against the government since cases have been filed against around 200 villagers in connection with the protest. About the assembly results, Pawar said his party candidates had received 72 lakh votes but could win only 10 seats. On the other hand, the NCP faction led by Ajit Pawar had recorded 58 lakh votes but it won 41 seats. A party getting 80 lakh votes has just 15 winners while the other party gaining 79 lakh votes has 57 successful candidates, Pawar pointed out. However, he said although the outcome was surprising, it would not be proper to comment about the EVMs until there was a solid basis. Pawar also expressed his misgivings by stating that opposition parties were winning smaller states while bigger states were won by the BJP. Still, the Maha Vikas Aghadi has decided to face the coming local body election together, Pawar reiterated. His refusal to join the anti-EVM chorus triggered by the Congress party is being interpreted differently by the other two MVA partners, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress.  

Disregarding the voting pattern in the Lok Sabha election earlier this year, the BJP has won 14 seats in the Maharashtra assembly election in Muslim-dominated constituencies. This score is more remarkable since the Vote Jihad campaign was a talking point during the electioneering for the fiercely fought battle for the reins of the state. Interestingly, the BJP did not have a single Muslim candidate. Still, all its winning candidates in such constituencies have been elected with huge margins. In the Lok Sabha election, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was leading in 155 assembly segments against Mahayuti 125.  Mahayuti, the ruling saffron alliance, bagged 21 seats out of the 38 segments identified as having a majority Muslim population. This fact has astounded the self-appointed analysts, most of whom had predicted a re-run of the Lok Sabha pattern. The opposition MVA could capture 14 seats in these areas with the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray winning six, followed by the Congress which managed to win five though the minority vote is considered its vote bank. The NCP under Sharad Pawar has won three seats whereas the Samajwadi Party has got two and the AIMIM just one. According to the last census of 2011, the Muslim population in the state was over 11.50% or around 1.30 crore. At least six of the assembly constituencies house more than 20% Muslim voters. All these seats have voted in favour of the BJP. This election has revealed several intriguing facts, defying expert clichés based on the statistics of castes, sub-castes and religion.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) leader Raj Thackeray has once again made a surprising move, joining the chorus against the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Immediately after the results of the state assembly election started pouring in, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and some state Congress worthies began complaining about the so-called discrepancies between the EVM vote figures at 5 pm and the final tally. Although senior leader Sharad Pawar took a cautious position by declaring that he will comment only after some solid data is available, the anti-EVM protests kept on swelling. This did not dampen even after the Supreme Court dismissed a petition demanding returning to the old paper ballot system. MNS is the latest to join the campaign. While the ruling Mahayuti has swept the polls, the three MVA partners are reduced to minuscule numbers in the 288-member assembly. MNS had fielded around 125 candidates but failed to get even a single seat. The most humiliating defeat was of Raj Thackeray’s son Amit, whose electoral debut was watched with considerable interest. Raj has been ambivalent on and off about his relationship with the BJP. In 2014, he supported Prime Minister Narendra Modi wholeheartedly but became his critic in 2019. In the Lok Sabha election this year, he stood wholeheartedly with the BJP but for the assembly, he decided to go alone. Despite this, he said, he will be supporting the NDA. Hence, his attack against the EVMs has come as a surprise.

The next legislative assembly in Maharashtra may have to function without a recognised leader of the opposition (LoP) unless the ruling Mahayuti decides to grant the status to one of the Maha Vikas Aghadi partners as a political favour to the other side. This situation has arisen since none of the opposition parties has been able to secure the minimum 29 seats in the lower house required to gain the status of the LoP, as is required by rules and precedents. The piquant legislative logjam is created as the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition has won a landslide victory, bagging 233 seats in the house of 288 seats. On the opposition side, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has obtained just 20 out of 95 seats it contested. The Congress being the largest partner of the MVA had contested 103 seats but won only 16. Veteran leader Sharad Pawar’s NCP is the worst sufferer with barely 10 seats. In the past, various small opposition parties would form a group that would be recognised by the speaker to grant LoP status. Such an understanding took place in Maharashtra in 1986 when socialists Mrinal Gore and Nihal Ahmed and PWP’s Datta Patil were made LoP though they had very few members each. But such a gesture was not shown by the Modi government in the Lok Sabha in 2014 and 2019. Hence what happens in Maharashtra will depend upon both sides.

For the first time perhaps, the judiciary has been held responsible for an electoral rout. Shiv Sena (UBT) Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut has been blaming the former Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud for his party’s electoral defeat. The Sena spokesman has also attacked the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh for the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s decimation in the Maharashtra assembly election in which the opposition has been reduced to a minuscule presence. In the 288 member house, 236 members will belong to the treasury (BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP) benches. Enraged at the poll outcome, Raut retorted while referring to the various petitions pending in the Supreme Court in regard to proceedings against certain MLAs in Maharashtra that Chandrachud had emboldened the defectors by not deciding on the disqualification pleas against them. Raut said the former CJI’s name will be written in black ink in India’s history. Taking a swipe at the RSS, he said the Sangh played a key role in the campaign. The poisonous campaign it conducted hit us adversely. Harping upon the BJP’s so-called Gujarat connection, he advised that the swearing-in ceremony of the new government should be held in the neighbouring state. “If it is held at Shivaji Park, it will be an insult to Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and if held at Wankhede Stadium, it will be a disrespect to the memory of the 105 martyrs who laid down their lives for the demand for Samyukta Maharashtra movement,” he quipped. Sena’s mouthpiece Saamna also has lashed at the thumping majority of Mahayuti. It is edited by Sanjay Raut.

Increased voting by women and a comparatively lower turnout of the Muslims for the Maharashtra assembly elections are likely to be the two major factors which can tilt the outcome of the crucial battle that will conclude on Saturday evening. These two trends have been commented upon repeatedly by several analysts while making a comparison with the Lok Sabha election’s voting pattern. As the turnout for this election has been the highest at more than 66% over the past three decades, both sides are claiming that it will benefit their candidates. For instance, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has suggested that the Laadki Bahin Yojana was one reason for the handsome response of women, who would support the Mahayuti nominees. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) failed to gauge the potency of the scheme whereby eligible women receive Rs 1500 per month from the state. Both sides have promised to enhance the provision after watching the unprecedented welcome it has received. Similarly, the lack of enthusiasm of Muslim voters as compared with the Lok Sabha voting complexion has emerged as another important factor for the final outcome. At least a dozen Lok Sabha seats went to MVA owing to en bloc minority voting. In Dhule, while the other five assembly segments supported the Mahayuti, voting in the Malegaon assembly changed the picture and the seat went to MVA. In view of such aspects, the results are awaited eagerly.

As the term of the present Maharashtra assembly ends on 26 November, the political calculations to capture power will have to be finalised within just 48 hours once the results are out. This has heightened the suspense about the outcome of the election since the richest state of India will play a crucial role in shaping the national political future. A mandate in Maharashtra will strengthen the prospects of both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state saw a brief spell of President’s Rule in 2019 as none of the claimants was ready to form a government within the deadline. Making preparations to avert any such eventuality, Mahayuti and MVA planners have booked dozens of rooms in five star hotels in Mumbai for the possible winners. Moreover, chartered planes and helicopters have also been booked in readiness to ensure the availability of the future MLAs. Another precaution is to keep them under watch so that sides are not changed at the eleventh hour. But the Lok Sabha results changed the picture as MVA won 30 out of the 48 seats. The exit polls for the assembly election have predicted a keen race, making it imperative for both sides to count on each vote. Therefore, the 48 hours after the results will become the game changer.

If rising onion prices decided the election outcome in many states some decades ago, falling soybean prices could impact the outcome in around 70 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, representing two ends of the political spectrum, are found promising farmers of much higher rates, but only after they are elected on 20 November. The sensitive constituencies are spread in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, where cotton and soybean are the main cash crops. The current market rate of Rs 4000 per quintal is unacceptable to the growers though they have no choice but to sell the produce as it can’t be stored for long. The MSP is Rs 4800 but not enough stocks are lifted by the machinery. The ruling saffron alliance has been promising better tariffs. The government hiked the soybean import duty in a bid to jack up the prices but the hike was of only around Rs 400, still leaving a gap of the same amount. Sensing the distress and the government’s inability to make any major announcement, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised Rs 6000 per quintal of the legume. To go a step further, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has pledged to pay Rs 7000. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also joined the chorus. The two regions had by and large supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha election. Hence, Mahayuti leaders are wary of saying anything that can dampen their prospects.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar finds commonality between Vote Jihad and a particular section of the people voting for the BJP. Explaining his stand, the NCP founder said it was seen in Pune that the BJP was consistently supported by a certain segment (read Brahmin) in some areas. We expect this to happen though don’t call it Vote Jihad, he remarked. According to Pawar, if such voting patterns happen, it is the right of every community to vote as per its choice. He again charged that deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had raised the issue of Vote Jihad. Pawar’s jab was directed at those specific areas of Pune where Brahmin population is dominant and mostly BJP candidates are elected from such localities. Time and again, Pawar has been accused of creating the bogey of caste with an eye on electoral gains by engineering a rift between sections of the electorate. In support of his contention, Pawar said slogans like ‘batenge toh katenge also fall in the same category as they have a communal shade. He alleged that the issue has been cropped up by the ruling dispensation as it is desperate at the bleak prospect in the assembly election, after the Lok Sabha rout. Fadanvis had condemned the Vote Jihad philosophy after cleric Sajjan Nomani released a list of the Maha Vikas Aghadi candidates and asked the Muslims to vote for them. 

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde, deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis and former CM Uddhav Thackeray have started singing the same tune. They keep on telling the media, “I am not hankering for Maharashtra’s chief ministership.” Over the past few days, the three leaders have been interviewed by leading dailies and news channels. Each has been repeatedly asked about his prospects to be the next CM. In response, each has reiterated that a decision about this issue will be taken after the assembly election results on 23 November. The issue had become a hot topic soon after the Lok Sabha election when Uddhav Sena’s spokesman Sanjay Raut publicly suggested to Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) to project his leader as the next CM. The move was immediately scuttled since veteran leader Sharad Pawar of NCP and state Congress president Nana Patole rejected it. Now that the polls are away in just four days, the issue has been resurrected. Shinde has predicted that the ruling Mahayuti will win around 160 seats in the 288-member house. Fadnavis has been consistently saying that the issue will be decided by Shinde, BJP’s Central leaders and another deputy CM, Ajit Pawar. This stance of the three top leaders in Maharashtra is interpreted as a precaution to ensure that the boat is not rocked at the opportune time.

Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has raised apprehensions about his future moves, once again. Over the past few days, Ajit has betrayed his ambivalence about the way campaigning is proceeding in Maharashtra. While this is being commented upon, his absence at the final rally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Shivaji Park in Mumbai on November 14 has been noted with concern within the ruling Mahayuti. Neither Ajit nor any of his NCP’s candidates turned up for the PM’s rally organised by chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the BJP. As Ajit failed to appear on the dais, the media attention has focussed on his possible calculations after the assembly poll results are out on 23 November. Already, he has rubbed Shinde and deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis the wrong way by objecting to UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s slogan batenge toh katenge. Ajit had observed that such slogans will not work in Maharashtra, whose culture was different from that of UP. Ajit’s insistence on fielding former minister Nawab Malik from Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar constituency in Mumbai despite the BJP’s open objections had created some strain within the Mahayuti. Now, Malik has told the saffron formation that Ajit’s NCP will not be a part of the next government if Yuti’s campaign strategy is not changed. Ajit’s another confidant, Dilip Walse Patil had said a few days ago that some fresh combination can occur after the election. Ajit has not refuted neither statement. Hence, he is under close observation by the other two partners of Mahayuti.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray has confidently predicted that Devendra Fadnavis will return as the next chief minister of the state. Raj made this statement while making a candid disclosure about his son Amit’s candidature from Dadar-Mahim assembly constituency in Mumbai. Raj has stated unambiguously that he had supported the decision taken by Amit to contest from the constituency, considered the stronghold of both factions of the Shiv Sena and MNS. As sitting MLA Sada Sarvankar of the Sena (Shinde) has refused to withdraw, there will be a triangular fight among the three Senas, a novel feature of the coming election. The fight will be live since the BJP had publicly appealed to Sarvankar and Shinde to yield. After their refusal, city BJP president Ashish Shelar has pledged the party’s support to Amit. A recent angle to the jumble is Raj’s fulsome praise for Fadnavis. In a TV interview, Raj said, “Fadnavis possesses the best political and technical sense. His combination with Eknath Shinde is excellent. After the election, Mahayuti will return to power with Fadnavis as chief minister.” The announcement by Uddhav Thackeray that he will not hold a campaign rally in the constituency though he has a candidate there and Raj’s silence about Aaditya Thackeray during the MNS rally in Worli are contributing to the intrigue. The intensity will increase as Raj has castigated cousin Uddhav for the present mess in the state politics due to defectors. 

The ruling Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (Cong-Shiv Sena(UBT)-NCP(SP) have decided to keep both former chief ministers in Maharashtra on hold as a cautionary strategy, indicating that they will open their cards at an opportune time. Both hopefuls, Devendra Fadnavis and Uddhav Thackeray, also have adopted a similar stance though Uddhav had earlier tried to prevail upon the Congress and senior leader Sharad Pawar to project him as the next CM. However, both MVA partners had refused to concede. Now, Pawar has announced that his party will support the leader chosen by the largest of the three parties after the assembly election. According to available statistics, the Congress party is contesting the largest number of seats, 102, leaving 96 for the Shiv Sena under Uddhav and 87 for the NCP led by Pawar. In the Lok Sabha, the Congress strike rate was the most impressive. Hence, the Congress has always maintained its claim as the eldest brother in the MVA formation. Similarly, Fadnavis has been lauded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah over the past two days. Despite this, Shah has declared that a decision about the next Maharashtra CM will be taken after the outcome is declared. The BJP is contesting 152 seats in the 288 member assembly and over a dozen of its leaders are contesting on behalf of the Sena (Shinde) or NCP (Ajit Pawar). Therefore, its prospects are considered better this time, after the Lok Sabha drubbing.

Former BJP MP Poonam Mahajan’s implication that a conspiracy was behind her father Pramod Mahajan’s murder has stirred the polity. The serious statement made before private Marathi TV channels has come at a time when her party is fighting a pitched battle with the Maha Vikas Aghadi to retain power in Maharashtra. BJP boss Pramod Mahajan was killed by his brother Pravin almost two decades ago. Poonam had maintained silence about the tragedy all these years. She was elected to the Lok Sabha in 2014 and 2019 and was expected to run for a third term. Hence her disclosure at this juncture is interpreted in different ways but none in favour of the saffron party. Poonam’s assertion that her family relations with Uddhav Thackeray have remained unaffected has added to the speculation since all top BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, regard the Shiv Sena leader as Enemy No 1. Poonam’s charge that she was refused nomination this time for the Lok Sabha election since her work was disliked by ‘someone in Maharashtra’ has deepened the suspense created on the eve of Modi’s and Union home minister Amit Shah’s visit to the  state for campaigning for Mahayuti candidates. Her target is deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, according to BJP insiders. Poonam’s veiled warning that she will write to the Union home ministry to throw light on Pramod’s demise has only added to the BJP’s discomfiture.

Firebrand politician Chhagan Bhujbal has rejected the statements attributed to him by journalist Rajdeep Sardesai in his latest book, 2024: The Election That Surprised India by threatening to initiate legal action. According to the book extracts published by Marathi daily Loksatta, Bhujbal had conceded that he, along with many other MLAs, had gone with the BJP in 2022 to extricate himself from the clutches of the Enforcement Directorate (ED). According to the published version in the daily, Bhujbal said, “All were happy for aligning with the BJP since the ED’s harassment had ended.” Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar and some prominent leaders of his Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) were on the ED radar at the time. There have been persistent allegations that the cases against them are not pursued ever since they decided to join the Mahayuti government in the state. Bhjujbal pointed out that most of 54 MLAs belonging to Sharad Pawar’s NCP had followed Ajit out of the party though ED cases were against only a few. Secondly, he was acquitted from the Maharashtra Sadan matter when Uddhav Thackeray was the chief minister. Finally, he decided to go with Ajit in the interest of development. “My assembly constituency has been sanctioned Rs 2000 crore worth development works,” he claimed. The Loksatta version had said that Bhujbal opted for this course since he was scared of going back into ED custody at the age of 75. “I made no such statement,” Bhujbal has insisted.

The age-old trick of misrepresenting by displaying a similar name is rampant this time as well in the Maharashtra assembly electioneering. This charade had played havoc for some prominent leaders in the past. For instance, NCP (Ajit) leader Sunil Tatkare lost the 2014 Lok Sabha election from Raigad by a mere 2100 votes since another namesake, also Sunil Tatkare, polled over 9000 votes. Influential Congress leader and former chief minister AR Antulay, too, lost from Raigad in the past since another AR Antulay received more than 21000 votes. This time, such instances are quite a few in the district. In Panvel assembly constituency, there are three candidates with the same name, Balaram Patil and also three Prashant Thakur contestants. While the real Patil is in the fray for the Shiv Sena (UBT), sitting BJP MLA Thakur is testing his luck for a second time. Karjat’s present MLA Mahendra Thorve of the Sena (Shinde) has to take on an adversary of the same name. In Alibaug, Sena (Shinde) nominee Mahendra Dalvi is engaged in a battle with three more Mahendra Dalvi names. Moreover, an independent candidate in the constituency, Dilip Bhoir, is facing another opponent of the same name. The district was in the news in 2004 for the first time when Peasants and Workers Party leader Meenakshi Patil was poised against seven independents bearing the same name. Eventually, the PWP bagged the seat, but only after a bitter fight. How many of these aspirants remain in the ring will be clear only on 4 November, the last day for withdrawal.

The Congress party in Maharashtra is engaged in fire fighting over many thorny issues, among them the minority representation grievance since a sentiment is spreading that the party leadership has yielded too much to the Shiv Sena (UBT) in ticket distribution. In Mumbai, Thane and Konkan, the party has hardly a token presence among the 75 seats of the region. Here, the fight will be mainly between the two Sena factions, the other led by chief minister Eknath Shinde. Moreover, murmurs are heard that many loyal veterans and most Muslims aspirants are handed out a raw deal in ticket distribution. The decision of senior leader Ravi Raja to don the saffron garb has shaken the organization since Mumbai Congress president Varsha Gaikwad, MP, is under attack for this drastic step. She has been censured for getting a nomination for her sister. Among the vocal dissenters is Sufiyan Vanoo, a former Wadala corporator. He has questioned the party’s decision to hand over several Muslim-dominated assembly seats to the Sena (UBT). The areas he has named include Govandi, Anushakti Nagar, Versova, Bandra (East), Byculla, Kurla and Kalina. It has been alleged that there is a plan to minimize the Congress presence in Mumbai and adjoining areas. Another factor that is haunting the Congress is that just two Marathi-speaking candidates figure in the party’s list for Mumbai. It is argued that the aspirations of the areas having substantial Marathi population have been overlooked by the leaders. Efforts to mollify the disturbed elements have intensified over the weekend.

A new political formation is shaping up in Maharashtra, indicating the possibility of a novel social engineering experiment. Maratha caste reservation’s chief proponent Manor Jarange Patil has roped in leaders from Dalit and Muslim communities to create this force, which he feels will impact the outcome in the coming assembly election. It is presumed that Dalit and Muslim voters had supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi for the Lok Sabha election, resulting in the ruling Mahayuti’s Waterloo. At the time, Jarange was given credit for this spectacular success of MVA in a few pockets in Marathwada. Now, he is trying to recreate the experiment on a larger scale. It will be called MMD, meaning Marathas, Muslims and Dalits. Jarange will declare the names of the candidates supported by MMD on Monday (Nov 3). Alarmed by this stance, his ardent opponents, the OBC leaders, have drawn up their own counter strategy. Their spokesman Lakshman Hake has announced that the OBCs, too, have prepared their own list and will reveal it soon after Jarange’s list is out. The list will identify Jarange’s supporter candidates and Hake will appeal to the voters to defeat them. The Marathas and the OBCs are two major vote banks in the state. The Muslims can decide the outcome in certain constituencies where their population exceeds 15%. On the other hand, the OBCs are considered sympathetic to the BJP. Jarange’s MMD equation was finalised after his meeting with Buddhist and Muslim clerics at his village in Beed district on October 31.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will sound the bugle in Maharashtra assembly electioneering on 8 November. Modi will hold a total of nine rallies across the state within a week’s time. The BJP strategists have decided not to take any chance this time after the drubbing received by the party for the Lok Sabha election. Accordingly, Modi’s rally route is meticulously planned. The first two public meetings of the PM will take place in Nashik and Dhule in north Maharashtra. The region is by and large favourable for the ruling saffron alliance and no efforts will be spared to exploit this sentiment. Senior minister Girish Mahajan is pulling out all stops to make both the rallies a grand success. The meeting venue in Nashik has been named as Modi Ground and Mahajan says it will be overflowing with lakhs of people. Modi’s blitzkrieg will be followed by visits of BJP’s star campaigners, many of whom are Union ministers. According to initial planning, Modi will be in Akola and Chimur in Vidarbha on 9 November. His next public meetings will be in Solapur and Kolhapur in western Maharashtra on 13 November. He will round off his whirlwind campaign on 14 November with rallies in Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Navi Mumbai and Mumbai. The six geographical regions have seat distribution as follows: Mumbai 36, Thane and Konkan 39, north Maharashtra 47, western Maharashtra 58, Marathwada 46 and Vidarbha 62.

The coming assembly election in Maharashtra will decide the fate of many money bags, spread across all major parties. A few notables of them are now talk of the town. BJP’s Ghatkopar (east) candidate Parag Shah has total assets of around Rs 3,383 crore.  He is followed by state minister Mangal Prabhat Lodha, whose declared wealth is exceeding Rs.440 crore. Lodha has been elected to the state assembly from the prestigious Malabar Hill constituency repeatedly. BJP’s Sameer Datta Meghe (Rs 159 crore) has been fielded from Hingana, Nagpur. His father Datta Meghe was a right hand associate of veteran Sharad Pawar for a long time. He then switched over to the BJP and the family has remained loyal to the saffron flag. BJP’s Prashant Ramsheth Thakur (Rs 183 crore) is the son of the then Lok Sabha member Ramsheth. A successful builder-developer-contractor, Ramsheth has been a handsome donor for various causes. Rajesh Sambhajirao Pawar (Rs 191 crore) from Naigaum in Nanded district is among the other high value contestants. Congress candidate Vishwajit Patangrao Kadam (Rs 216 crore), son of then education minister Patangrao, runs the Bharati Vidyapeeth, which has several engineering, medical and technical institutions in Maharashtra.  Another Congress candidate, Sanjay Chandrakant Jagtap is testing his luck from Purandar in Pune district and has property worth Rs.245 crore. Controversial politician Abu Azmi of the Samajwadi Party has assets of over Rs 200 crore. There are a large number of candidates whose wealth is around Rs100 crore or less. Now they are vying for public mandate to become law makers.

 “A rose by any other name would smell as sweet” said Shakespeare. With due modification, sugar barons in Maharashtra have proved that whatever political party they may belong to, sugar is sweet for them and their peers. This is because many prominent candidates for the state assembly election own or control sugar cooperative or private sugar factories. If not themselves, their family members find a place in the lists declared so far. Expectedly, NCP president Ajit Pawar heads the list while his bete noire Jayant Patil of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) is also among the top five. Pawar’s grandson Rohit Pawar, a bitter critic of uncle Ajit, also figures in the roll. BJP’s Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, who has travelled to the saffron party via the Congress and the unified Shiv Sena, continues to be counted among the most powerful sugar barons for decades. The latest turncoat Harshvarrdhan Patil, now blessed by the NCP (SP) is another name. State Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat, described as a dark horse, is indispensable for any such listing. Chief minister Eknath Shinde, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis or former CM Uddhav Thackeray don’t have any sugar connection directly though some of their close followers do have an interest in the sector. Shinde’s confidant Tanaji Sawant, public health minister, is among them. BJP’s Abhimanyu Pawar, once a private secretary to Fadnavis, finds a place as well. These are only a few examples. In unison, they have proved the dictum that sugar is a great sweetener which binds those holding the reins of power in Maharashtra. 

The lure of number nine (9) is manifesting in different forms for the coming Maharashtra assembly election though the attraction is at least four decades old. At present, the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena have chosen number nine for their initial lists of candidates. The BJP has declared 99 nominees so far while the Sena (Shinde) and MNS have announced 45 names each, achieving a total of nine. But the association of number nine and politics in the state goes back to the first Sena-BJP alliance formed by Balasaheb Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan. The division of the 288 constituencies was originally to be 168 (SS) and 120 (BJP). However, at Balasaheb’s suggestion, it was changed to 171 and 117, so as to make the total nine. Incidentally, Raj Thackeray has stuck to the numeral. His party was formed on the 9th, his cars bear the same number and all his important events are connected with nine. A little known fact is that even Union minister Nitin Gadkari chooses the number for his cars, which bear the numerals 27, 2727 or 81 on their number plates. Chief minister Eknath Shinde, too, seems a firm believer in the power of nine. The number of his car is 567, making a total of nine. In numerology, it is called the Cardinal Number, and is held to be very auspicious. How nine benefits which candidate, which party and which formation will become known on 23 November.

The once ruling Shiv Sena’s split has redrawn the political calculations in Maharashtra. Their impact will be tested in the coming assembly election as over two dozen constituencies will witness a pitched battle between the two Sena factions. The outcome can be decisive as the balance of power will depend on the ultimate political formation, which will happen by consigning the loyalty factor to the dustbin. Over the past few days, defections have been galore and every hour, turncoats declare their commitment for the party they join by deserting their original outfit. With the proliferation of candidates, each constituency’s fate is uncertain. The atmosphere is surcharged as the average Shiv Sena worker, belonging to either faction, is facing a dilemma of sorts. The prominent constituencies include chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat in Thane. The rival Sena (UBT) has fielded Kedar Dighe, who is a nephew of late Anand Dighe, the mentor of Shinde. Still, the most interesting fight will be in Dadar-Mahim since there will be three candidates, all of them loyal to the memory of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray. His son Uddhav has selected Mahesh Sawant, who will take on sitting Sena MLA (Shinde) Sada Sarvankar and MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s son Amit. Firebrand leader Narayan Rane’s son Nilesh of Sena (Shinde) will be locked in a fight with Sena (UBT) candidate Vaibhav Naik, a traditional foe of the Rane family. In Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar district, at least half a dozen fights between the two factions will take place. Strangely, several of the candidates from both sides were in other parties till yesterday. When it became evident that their party had overlooked their claim, they changed hats and obtained candidacy, too. The constituencies concerned are Sawantwadi, Kudal, Ratnagiri, Dapoli, Patan, Sangola, Paranda, Karjat, Malegaon, Nandgaon, Vaijapur, Sillod, Kalmanuri, Ramtek, Mehkar, Pachora, Ovla-Majivada, Magathane, Kurla, Mahad, Radhanaari and...

The Bharatiya Janata Party has taken a lead over other major parties by declaring its first list of a hundred candidates for the coming Maharashtra assembly election. The party is expected to contest around 160 seats in the 288-member house. Even as the partners in the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi have been haggling for their individual share of the seats, the BJP’s decision to come out with the first list is considered strategic. Already preparing for the election immediately after the Lok Sabha election was over, the party machinery is geared up to take on its adversaries. Significantly, the first list has few surprises as almost all the sitting MLAs have been asked to contest. The list is topped by deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis. A somewhat surprising nominee is state BJP president Chandrakant Bawankule, who has been accommodated in the legislative council after he was refused the assembly opportunity in 2019. He is considered a loyal follower of Union Minister Nitin Gadkari. A few days ago, there were murmurs that Gadkari’s loyalists were being side lined. Following some such news reports, a meeting between Gadkari and Fadnavis took place. Bawankule’s selection to fight for the assembly is considered as an adjustment. While the BJP candidates have gone into an overdrive, the hopefuls in other parties are still groping in the dark about their future. Their fate will be declared latest by Monday (Oct 21) evening, it is felt.

Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole has become a stumbling block in the seat sharing talks with the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray. The simmering differences over allotment of seats in Vidarbha and in Mumbai to some extent are said to be the reason for the disagreement. “It seems Maharashtra Congress leaders are unable to take decisions in several matters. Hence we will talk with Ramesh Chennithala and Rahul Gandhi,” Sena MP Sanjay Raut said. However, the news has leaked out that the Sena will not join any talks where Patole is present. The Nationalist Congress Party led by Sharad Pawar is yet to react to the tricky development. Thus, the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi will have to negotiate a slippery patch very cautiously to land safely in the electoral arena. Over the past few days, a series of meetings have been held by MVA to finalise the seat sharing formula for the election to be held on 20 November. The regained confidence after the Lok Sabha election’s win needs to be retained since inordinate delays in such sensitive matters can vitiate the mood of the rank and file, the Sena feels. MVA leaders till now have reached an accord on about 200 seats of the total 288. The main impediment is the seat sharing in Vidarbha, where the Congress party has an upper hand. The Sena’s claim that it sacrificed seats like Amravati and Ramtek for the Lok Sabha election in favour of the Congress is not seen to be cutting much ice. This has angered Uddhav, who is not ready to wait any longer.  

Former Maharashtra chief minister Ashok Chavan is being considered by the BJP for contesting the Nanded Lok Sabha byelection. A Rajya Sabha member at present, Chavan and his father Shankarrao have been elected from Nanded repeatedly for the past six decades on Congress tickets. A father-son CM duo, the Chavan family has a close attachment with Nanded, an underdeveloped pocket of the backward Marathwada region. Both have represented Nanded in parliament and the assembly. Ashok’s wife Ameeta, was a Nanded MLA. At present, their daughter Shrijaya is in the news as the next Nanded candidate of the BJP for the assembly. While Ashok Chavan seemed ensconced comfortably in the Rajya Sabha, the unexpected death of sitting Nanded MP Vasant Chavan of the Congress has changed the political equations. Since the seat was wrested by the Congress from the BJP earlier this year, Ashok is considered the best bet to win it back. The Congress has announced the candidature of Ravindra Chavan, the son of the deceased MP. Nanded Lok Sabha constituency has a substantial Muslim population, it being an important region of the Nizam’s Hyderabad princely state. In view of this, former Aurangabad (Sambhaji Nagar) MP Imtiyaz Jaleel of AIMIM has declared his resolve to enter the fray. In case this happens, the arithmetic of the election will undergo a sea change. Whatever happens, Ashok Chavan will continue to be a member of parliament.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s Dussehra address in Nagpur is seen as an endorsement of the BJP’s policy of Hindu consolidation. It is like a green signal for the party to proceed with its agenda, the insiders feel. Bhagwat’s remarks will be helpful in boosting the BJP’s prospects in the upcoming Maharashtra assembly election since there is no ambiguity in his message. The tone of the address, delivered at the beginning of the centenary year of the RSS, will be interpreted severally but the RSS will continue its work undaunted, its veteran members say. The BJP had suffered in the Lok Sabha election since the RSS had not immersed itself fully in the contest. The BJP took due note of its displeasure and took corrective steps. The result was that it bagged Haryana, though with a nominal margin. The same formula will now be emulated in Maharashtra where the BJP lost 16 Lok Sabha seats due to minority collective vote in favour of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi candidates. Learning a lesson from the debacle, the ruling Mahayuti partners have been implementing their strategy in an organized manner. Still, there was uneasiness in the saffron camp given the clout of NCP founder Sharad Pawar. The announcement of the election dates and the candidates of respective parties is expected to occur at any moment now.  Hence, Bhagwat’s clear call has come as a welcome breather for the Mahayuti.

Former Maharashtra minister Baba Siddique’s tragic death in a shooting attack has once again churned the state politics on the eve of the coming assembly election. A former Congress leader, Siddique had only recently joined the Nationalist Congress party (NCP) led by deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar. Incidentally, but for a handful pockets, the party has no political space in Mumbai. Hence Siddique’s loss will be felt by it intensely. His son Zeeshan is a Congress MLA from Nirmal Nagar in Bandra. Siddique’s death just outside his son’s office and despite having ‘Y’ grade security has put the three-party Mahayuti alliance in the dock. The focus, however, is on deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis as he handles the home portfolio. His critics have once again trained their guns against Fadnavis, perceived as the main challenger for the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi. The demand for his resignation had started no sooner than Siddique was being moved to hospital. Congress scion Rahul Gandhi is among the prominent politicians to castigate the state government for the tragedy. Even some NCP (Ajit) functionaries, too, have joined the chorus. The police are investigating various possible connections behind the killing in the congested busy locality. A popular figure among politicians and Bollywood, the image of the Mumbai police has suffered but the fallout will have to be faced by the political leadership. The embattled Mahayuti will need a herculean effort to emerge from the situation. 

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar was hitting the headlines all these days since several hopefuls from other parties were ‘homecoming’ into his Nationalist Congress Party to obtain candidature with his blessings. The spree appeared to be swelling further but has hit a sudden roadblock, that too in Baramati. A recent decision of the Pawar father-daughter duo has posed a daunting challenge for the octogenarian in his home turf. Many of his traditional followers have warned him of an upheaval if BJP-deserter Harshvarrdhan Patil is given candidacy from Indapur, adjacent to Baramati. Patil family has been nursing a grievance against Pawar for many decades. He had left the Congress in 2019 to join the BJP. But no plum position came his way. For the coming assembly election, too, there was no clear cut assurance from the BJP for a ticket. Therefore, Harshvarrdhan Patil’s plea to Pawar and the positive reciprocation he received have angered the loyal NCP workers. In a public rally, they have told Pawar to be prepared to face “India’s biggest revolt” if Patil is chosen to contest on their behalf from Indapur. The venue for the rally was the same wherein Patil was admitted into the NCP a few days ago. However, the turnout was much larger and had a substantial number of women present, sending warning signals for the Pawar camp. How the NCP founder quells the situation will decide the fates of many more party hoppers.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) cadres are gearing up for the coming Maharashtra assembly election, which will prove a game changer, whatever the outcome. If the results favour the three-party ruling Mahayuti, the NDA will face various coming state assembly  fights next year with renewed confidence. On the other hand, a repeat of the Lok Sabha results will add to the UPA ammunition. Hence, the saffron planning is to ensure that the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi does not benefit for any reason, especially due to the narrative regarding the change in the constitution. As part of this strategy plan, a meeting is reported to have been held in Nagpur between the BJP and the RSS to review the scenario. A highlight of the deliberations was that the core message of Hindutva must be the focal point of campaigning. Similarly, while distributing tickets, care must be taken not to rub the party’s loyal workforce the wrong way. In other words, the BJP must ensure that its long-time workers are not sidelined in the process. This election will be crucial for the BJP as a win in the second largest state, Maharashtra, will boost its morale. As the Mahayuti formation has somehow complicated the exercise of seat sharing, the BJP is intent on improving upon its strike rate, which was quite low in the Lok Sabha election. According to the party’s calculations, over a dozen parliamentary seats were lost with rather slim margins and can be won over now with more aggressive campaigning.

The exit poll predictions about Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir assembly elections have sent cautionary signals to both camps in Maharashtra. While the ruling Mahayuti feels it needs to reinvigorate its cadres, the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is worried that its workers can become complacent and take the victory in the coming election for granted. Sensing the possibility of doom spreading over the BJP workforce in case the party loses on 8 October, as forecast, Prime Minister Narendra Modi injected a new spirit in the organisation during his Saturday (Oct 6) visit to Maharashtra. He blasted the Congress party like never before while highlighting the developmental work his government has initiated in the state. The party’s election strategy will be redrawn after Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir results on October 8. To capitalise on its spectacular performance in the Lok Sabha election, the MVA is determined to improve upon its parliamentary score. The Congress, the main partner, is confident of a fabulous win. Expression to this feeling by various party leaders has been worrying the other two partners – the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar. Moreover, the complacency already visible among the workers will have to be ended soon by the leadership. The electioneering will start from 14 October, a day after Dussehra, as soon as candidates are announced by different parties.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar has once again shown his indomitable durability by immersing fully in the preparation for the coming Maharashtra assembly election. Busy from dawn till late in the night, Pawar has been receiving delegations and hopefuls throughout the day, besides holding strategy sessions. As usual, his team ensures that all such goings on are widely covered by the media, electronic and the print. Over the past two days, Pawar has been concentrating on the Marathwada region, once loyal to him. Presently, his NCP faction has been left with just a couple of MLAs from the backward region while half a dozen had walked out with his nephew, Ajit Pawar. Some of them have already called on the NCP founder in a bid to stage a homecoming. Similar is the scenario in Pune district, till recently under the influence of Ajit Pawar. The recent Lok Sabha rout of the NCP(Ajit) has changed the power equation for both, the uncle and the nephew. Over the past few days, many of Ajit’s followers have openly said they are seeking Sharad Pawar’s blessings for a comeback. The BJP, too, is roasted by Pawar’s magnetism. Several of its workers at different levels are desirous of switching over for a possible win. Political observers, however, are perplexed that the Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde has remained impervious to Pawar’s charm in this season of great political churning.

Former Maharashtra minister Harshvarrdhan Patil has decided to join the NCP under Sharad Pawar, his traditional family foe. Patil had joined the BJP in 2019 and had said, “Now I can sleep peacefully, no worry about the ED or the Income Tax department.” His candid admission had provided much cannon fodder to the opposition in general and to Sharad Pawar in particular. Patil’s family elder Shankarrao and the Pawar clan had never seen eye to eye because the Patil patriarch always complained that their empire in Indapur was deprived of development as funding was diverted to Baramati next door. In the last assembly election, Ajit Pawar had held a public rally in Indapur to declare that Harshvarrdhan Patil will be trounced. Ajit’s close follower Dattatray Bharne was elected there. Since then, an exasperated Patil had mounted scathing attacks against Sharad and Ajit Pawar. According to the present Mahayuti formation, the Indapur seat will go to the NCP(Ajit) and Harshvarrdhan will stand little chance of getting a BJP ticket. Maharashtra’s Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had been trying to persuade Patil to stay on but to no avail. Unwilling to wait any longer, Harshvarrdhan Patil has decided to enter Sharad Pawar’s party. Quizzed by the media about his past comment and asked if he will be able to get a sound sleep now, Harshvarrdhan quipped, “No comment.”

The Mahayuti government in Maharashtra has taken a record 71 decisions within a week, most of them with an eye on the coming assembly elections. The three-party government is already under fire due to opposition’s criticism that huge funds are being squandered on various sections of the population to gain their votes. The “Laadki Bahin” scheme, for instance, is mostly targeted by the critics since it has evoked unprecedented support from women, each eligible beneficiary getting Rs 1500 per month. Similar benefit schemes have been announced for the youth and farmers, among others. Although the opposition is screaming about the possible economic burden due to them, it has promised to enhance the provisions if it comes to power. According to another decision, an economic development corporation for the Jain community will be set up in the state. This will be the first such body for Jains in the country. As the community is viewed as affluent, by and large, many eyebrows are raised owing to the decision. Earlier, an economic development corporation for the Brahmin community was announced. Similarly, financial provision will be made for the cultural or academic institutions of the Buddhists. Each such body will be paid Rs 10 lakh by the government. A major decision has provided for abolishing the non-agricultural tax throughout the state. Several institutions are to be renamed, considering the social sensitivities of the individual areas they are operating in. No stones will be left unturned to win the election, the Mahayuti has indicated.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of the three main opposition parties in Maharashtra is in search of a formidable candidate who can take on chief minister Eknath Shinde in his home constituency of Kopari-Pachpakhadi in Thane city. Shinde has been representing this assembly seat since it was created in 2009. This being a traditional Shiv Sena stronghold, a keen fight will be seen for the first time in many years here. Under the unified Sena, Thane had been a virtual monopoly of the party. However, Shinde broke away from the parent party in 2022, taking along many legislators and corporators. This will be the first trial of strength between the two Sena’s with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena standing by Shinde, making his position stronger. At the same time, the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has proved again and again over the past two years that its popularity is not reduced much in the Mumbai-Thane belt, which controls nearly 75 seats in the 288-member assembly. Uddhav and his followers have vowed to make Shinde bite the dust, calling him a traitor. In retaliation, Shinde and his mentor late Anand Dighe are now projected as protectors of Hindutva. The ‘Laadki Bahin’ scheme launched by Shinde is proving extremely popular and is expected to reap bonus for himself and the Mahayuti alliance. Realising the possibility, the MVA has decided to mount a challenge for Shinde on his home turf.

The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has been placed in a firmer position to demand most assembly seats in Mumbai following its youth wing’s spectacular victory in the Mumbai University senate election held a couple of days ago. The outcome has enhanced Aaditya’s clout and his party’s prospects for Mumbai. Over the years, the Sena has been a dominant political player in Mumbai, relegating the BJP to a secondary position when both were together. Since the Sena split in 2022, it was felt that the party will be weakened considerably. However, Uddhav has established that its popularity is hardly affected. The Sena won the legislative council election from the Mumbai Graduates’ constituency with a solid margin earlier this year. The win in the senate election has endorsed the fact that the Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena faction has failed to make its mark in Mumbai in spite of the fact that several MLAs and corporators had followed Shinde out of the party. The three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi swept the Lok Sabha election in Mumbai and Maharashtra, sending alarm signals for the saffron Mahayuti alliance. The senate election was a fight between the Sena (UBT) and the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, under the Sangh Parivar. Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirmal Sena’s youth wing and other student organisations had kept away from the prestigious election.

Former Lok Sabha member Priya Dutt is planning to contest the coming Maharashtra assembly election from her home constituency of Bandra West, her supporters are saying. Though she herself has kept mum on the possibility, Mumbai Congress president Varsha Gaikwad, MP, has hinted so by saying that Priya can be a strong Congress candidate. She called on Priya at the Dutt family residence. Later, Gaikwad said Priya had worked for her victory in the recently concluded Lok Sabha election and hence she had met Priya to thank her. The elite constituency has been represented by Mumbai BJP chief Ashish Shelar since 2014. Till then, it was a fiefdom of Priya and earlier of her father, thespian Sunil Dutt. The Congress is relatively less strong in Mumbai. Therefore, candidates for each seat are being selected with utmost care. Knowing Shelar’s clout, not many are willing to take him on. Hence, the Congress is trying to persuade Priya, although she had lost the LS election in 2014 and 2019 against BJP’s Poonam Mahajan with huge margins. Since then, she was hardly visible politically. But the Congress prospects appear better now since in the recent LS election, the Bandra West segment gave only a slender margin to the BJP’s Ujjwal Nikam, although he lost against Gaikwad. The changing situation has renewed the chances of Priya staging a comeback.

Amidst persistent speculation about Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar’s future moves, the appointment of his NCP’s lone Lok Sabha member Sunil Tatkare as chairman of the prestigious parliamentary committee on energy and natural gas is viewed as a BJP sop to keep Ajit in the NDA flock. Ajit was reportedly sore as none of his party MLAs was given any important post in the state whereas chief minister Eknath Shinde’s supporters are appointed to major corporations like CIDCO and MHADA. Moreover, veteran leader Sharad Pawar has added to the suspense by declaring that though Ajit is away from the original NCP, the Pawar family is intact. Of late, Ajit has repeatedly said that his ambition to become the CM has remained unfulfilled. “I am stuck at the DCM’s post,” he said while expressing his frustration. When asked about this, DCM Devendra Fadnavis cryptically said that even if a party had a single MLA, he or she could aspire to become the CM. Just a day ago, Fadnavis had claimed that the BJP lost a dozen LS seats with narrow margins since Ajit’s NCP’s votes were not transferred to the BJP candidates. On the other hand, Shinde Sena’s votes were received, he suggested. The Centre’s decision to accommodate Tatkare will prompt all concerned to rethink their future strategy, it is felt. The picture will start becoming clear in a week’s time.

The ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra are facing the same challenge: increasing pressure from their supporters as finalization of the candidates for the 288-member state legislative assembly is taking its own time. The uneasiness is becoming vocal as the Election Commission has announced its visit to Mumbai early next week. This is the first time in the state’s history that there will be six major parties in the electoral arena in the state. The two Shiv Sena factions, the two NCP blocs, the BJP and the Congress are all trying to emerge as the single largest party in this crucial election, which will determine the political future of several prominent leaders. Given the Lok Sabha results, the MVA is confident of grabbing power while the Mahayuti has been showering one benefit after another on various sections of the population to stage a comeback. Political observers recall how MVA had taken a lead over the saffron alliance in the case of declaring LS candidates. According to present indications, the BJP is preparing to fight 160 seats, leaving about 130 for the two partners and the supporters from the smaller parties. On the other hand, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s various statements are interpreted to mean that the election will take place between 10 and 20 November.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray has warned against the release of The Legend of Maula Jatt, a Pakistani blockbuster, in the state. If permitted, the film will be screened just around the beginning of the Navratri festival. Also, it will be the first Pakistani movie to be released in India after 13 years. The previous Pakistani movie Bol was shown in 2011. Pakistani artists can’t work in India since 2016 following the Uri terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir. Thackeray’s warning comes following reports that the film will be released only in Mumbai. Thackeray’s affection for art is well known. Himself a renowned cartoonist, Raj is frequently seen at silver screen events. He has observed, “Art does not have national frontiers. This may be all right in other cases, but for Pakistan, this will not do at all. What is this business of bringing here actors to dance from a country whose whole existence depends upon hatred of India? Let alone Maharashtra, the government should not allow this movie to be screened in any state of the country,” he quipped. Warning of action if theatre owners went ahead to screen the film, Raj Thackeray has reminded all concerned of what MNS has done in the past when such incidents occurred. The rank and file of MNS is recharged with Raj’s warning in view of the impending assembly election in the state. 

The Maharashtra BJP’s insistence to contest at least 160 seats in the 288-member legislative assembly election has posed a challenge for the Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by Deputy CM Aji Pawar since both will have to be content with just about 60 seats for each. The seat sharing talks within the ruling Mahayuti are at an advanced turn though the BJP’s position as the largest partner has been accepted by both. However, the tacit tussle to occupy the second position is now becoming apparent as Ajit Pawar has made it clear that his party will need to contest over 60 seats. Both parties have almost an equal strength in the outgoing house. The Mahayuti is more or less agreed on around a hundred seats but the substantial chunk is still under negotiations. While Shinde has established his own channel with New Delhi, Ajit’s public postures are becoming a matter of speculation. His latest displeasure with the purported anti-minority utterances by some Sena-BJP leaders and Shinde’s implied support of those leaders, though in a different context, has caused some discomfort in the Mahayuti camp. Ajit and Shinde are thus facing a daunting challenge since they will have to persuade their followers to accept the seat sharing formula. It is likely to be finalised during Union home minister Amit Shah’s scheduled visit to the state next week.