As the term of the present Maharashtra assembly ends on 26 November, the political calculations to capture power will have to be finalised within just 48 hours once the results are out. This has heightened the suspense about the outcome of the election since the richest state of India will play a crucial role in shaping the national political future. A mandate in Maharashtra will strengthen the prospects of both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state saw a brief spell of President’s Rule in 2019 as none of the claimants was ready to form a government within the deadline. Making preparations to avert any such eventuality, Mahayuti and MVA planners have booked dozens of rooms in five star hotels in Mumbai for the possible winners. Moreover, chartered planes and helicopters have also been booked in readiness to ensure the availability of the future MLAs. Another precaution is to keep them under watch so that sides are not changed at the eleventh hour. But the Lok Sabha results changed the picture as MVA won 30 out of the 48 seats. The exit polls for the assembly election have predicted a keen race, making it imperative for both sides to count on each vote. Therefore, the 48 hours after the results will become the game changer.

If rising onion prices decided the election outcome in many states some decades ago, falling soybean prices could impact the outcome in around 70 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, representing two ends of the political spectrum, are found promising farmers of much higher rates, but only after they are elected on 20 November. The sensitive constituencies are spread in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, where cotton and soybean are the main cash crops. The current market rate of Rs 4000 per quintal is unacceptable to the growers though they have no choice but to sell the produce as it can’t be stored for long. The MSP is Rs 4800 but not enough stocks are lifted by the machinery. The ruling saffron alliance has been promising better tariffs. The government hiked the soybean import duty in a bid to jack up the prices but the hike was of only around Rs 400, still leaving a gap of the same amount. Sensing the distress and the government’s inability to make any major announcement, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised Rs 6000 per quintal of the legume. To go a step further, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has pledged to pay Rs 7000. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also joined the chorus. The two regions had by and large supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha election. Hence, Mahayuti leaders are wary of saying anything that can dampen their prospects.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar finds commonality between Vote Jihad and a particular section of the people voting for the BJP. Explaining his stand, the NCP founder said it was seen in Pune that the BJP was consistently supported by a certain segment (read Brahmin) in some areas. We expect this to happen though don’t call it Vote Jihad, he remarked. According to Pawar, if such voting patterns happen, it is the right of every community to vote as per its choice. He again charged that deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had raised the issue of Vote Jihad. Pawar’s jab was directed at those specific areas of Pune where Brahmin population is dominant and mostly BJP candidates are elected from such localities. Time and again, Pawar has been accused of creating the bogey of caste with an eye on electoral gains by engineering a rift between sections of the electorate. In support of his contention, Pawar said slogans like ‘batenge toh katenge also fall in the same category as they have a communal shade. He alleged that the issue has been cropped up by the ruling dispensation as it is desperate at the bleak prospect in the assembly election, after the Lok Sabha rout. Fadanvis had condemned the Vote Jihad philosophy after cleric Sajjan Nomani released a list of the Maha Vikas Aghadi candidates and asked the Muslims to vote for them. 

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde, deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis and former CM Uddhav Thackeray have started singing the same tune. They keep on telling the media, “I am not hankering for Maharashtra’s chief ministership.” Over the past few days, the three leaders have been interviewed by leading dailies and news channels. Each has been repeatedly asked about his prospects to be the next CM. In response, each has reiterated that a decision about this issue will be taken after the assembly election results on 23 November. The issue had become a hot topic soon after the Lok Sabha election when Uddhav Sena’s spokesman Sanjay Raut publicly suggested to Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) to project his leader as the next CM. The move was immediately scuttled since veteran leader Sharad Pawar of NCP and state Congress president Nana Patole rejected it. Now that the polls are away in just four days, the issue has been resurrected. Shinde has predicted that the ruling Mahayuti will win around 160 seats in the 288-member house. Fadnavis has been consistently saying that the issue will be decided by Shinde, BJP’s Central leaders and another deputy CM, Ajit Pawar. This stance of the three top leaders in Maharashtra is interpreted as a precaution to ensure that the boat is not rocked at the opportune time.

Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has raised apprehensions about his future moves, once again. Over the past few days, Ajit has betrayed his ambivalence about the way campaigning is proceeding in Maharashtra. While this is being commented upon, his absence at the final rally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Shivaji Park in Mumbai on November 14 has been noted with concern within the ruling Mahayuti. Neither Ajit nor any of his NCP’s candidates turned up for the PM’s rally organised by chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the BJP. As Ajit failed to appear on the dais, the media attention has focussed on his possible calculations after the assembly poll results are out on 23 November. Already, he has rubbed Shinde and deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis the wrong way by objecting to UP CM Yogi Adityanath’s slogan batenge toh katenge. Ajit had observed that such slogans will not work in Maharashtra, whose culture was different from that of UP. Ajit’s insistence on fielding former minister Nawab Malik from Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar constituency in Mumbai despite the BJP’s open objections had created some strain within the Mahayuti. Now, Malik has told the saffron formation that Ajit’s NCP will not be a part of the next government if Yuti’s campaign strategy is not changed. Ajit’s another confidant, Dilip Walse Patil had said a few days ago that some fresh combination can occur after the election. Ajit has not refuted neither statement. Hence, he is under close observation by the other two partners of Mahayuti.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray has confidently predicted that Devendra Fadnavis will return as the next chief minister of the state. Raj made this statement while making a candid disclosure about his son Amit’s candidature from Dadar-Mahim assembly constituency in Mumbai. Raj has stated unambiguously that he had supported the decision taken by Amit to contest from the constituency, considered the stronghold of both factions of the Shiv Sena and MNS. As sitting MLA Sada Sarvankar of the Sena (Shinde) has refused to withdraw, there will be a triangular fight among the three Senas, a novel feature of the coming election. The fight will be live since the BJP had publicly appealed to Sarvankar and Shinde to yield. After their refusal, city BJP president Ashish Shelar has pledged the party’s support to Amit. A recent angle to the jumble is Raj’s fulsome praise for Fadnavis. In a TV interview, Raj said, “Fadnavis possesses the best political and technical sense. His combination with Eknath Shinde is excellent. After the election, Mahayuti will return to power with Fadnavis as chief minister.” The announcement by Uddhav Thackeray that he will not hold a campaign rally in the constituency though he has a candidate there and Raj’s silence about Aaditya Thackeray during the MNS rally in Worli are contributing to the intrigue. The intensity will increase as Raj has castigated cousin Uddhav for the present mess in the state politics due to defectors. 

The ruling Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (Cong-Shiv Sena(UBT)-NCP(SP) have decided to keep both former chief ministers in Maharashtra on hold as a cautionary strategy, indicating that they will open their cards at an opportune time. Both hopefuls, Devendra Fadnavis and Uddhav Thackeray, also have adopted a similar stance though Uddhav had earlier tried to prevail upon the Congress and senior leader Sharad Pawar to project him as the next CM. However, both MVA partners had refused to concede. Now, Pawar has announced that his party will support the leader chosen by the largest of the three parties after the assembly election. According to available statistics, the Congress party is contesting the largest number of seats, 102, leaving 96 for the Shiv Sena under Uddhav and 87 for the NCP led by Pawar. In the Lok Sabha, the Congress strike rate was the most impressive. Hence, the Congress has always maintained its claim as the eldest brother in the MVA formation. Similarly, Fadnavis has been lauded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah over the past two days. Despite this, Shah has declared that a decision about the next Maharashtra CM will be taken after the outcome is declared. The BJP is contesting 152 seats in the 288 member assembly and over a dozen of its leaders are contesting on behalf of the Sena (Shinde) or NCP (Ajit Pawar). Therefore, its prospects are considered better this time, after the Lok Sabha drubbing.

Former BJP MP Poonam Mahajan’s implication that a conspiracy was behind her father Pramod Mahajan’s murder has stirred the polity. The serious statement made before private Marathi TV channels has come at a time when her party is fighting a pitched battle with the Maha Vikas Aghadi to retain power in Maharashtra. BJP boss Pramod Mahajan was killed by his brother Pravin almost two decades ago. Poonam had maintained silence about the tragedy all these years. She was elected to the Lok Sabha in 2014 and 2019 and was expected to run for a third term. Hence her disclosure at this juncture is interpreted in different ways but none in favour of the saffron party. Poonam’s assertion that her family relations with Uddhav Thackeray have remained unaffected has added to the speculation since all top BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, regard the Shiv Sena leader as Enemy No 1. Poonam’s charge that she was refused nomination this time for the Lok Sabha election since her work was disliked by ‘someone in Maharashtra’ has deepened the suspense created on the eve of Modi’s and Union home minister Amit Shah’s visit to the  state for campaigning for Mahayuti candidates. Her target is deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, according to BJP insiders. Poonam’s veiled warning that she will write to the Union home ministry to throw light on Pramod’s demise has only added to the BJP’s discomfiture.

Firebrand politician Chhagan Bhujbal has rejected the statements attributed to him by journalist Rajdeep Sardesai in his latest book, 2024: The Election That Surprised India by threatening to initiate legal action. According to the book extracts published by Marathi daily Loksatta, Bhujbal had conceded that he, along with many other MLAs, had gone with the BJP in 2022 to extricate himself from the clutches of the Enforcement Directorate (ED). According to the published version in the daily, Bhujbal said, “All were happy for aligning with the BJP since the ED’s harassment had ended.” Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar and some prominent leaders of his Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) were on the ED radar at the time. There have been persistent allegations that the cases against them are not pursued ever since they decided to join the Mahayuti government in the state. Bhjujbal pointed out that most of 54 MLAs belonging to Sharad Pawar’s NCP had followed Ajit out of the party though ED cases were against only a few. Secondly, he was acquitted from the Maharashtra Sadan matter when Uddhav Thackeray was the chief minister. Finally, he decided to go with Ajit in the interest of development. “My assembly constituency has been sanctioned Rs 2000 crore worth development works,” he claimed. The Loksatta version had said that Bhujbal opted for this course since he was scared of going back into ED custody at the age of 75. “I made no such statement,” Bhujbal has insisted.

The age-old trick of misrepresenting by displaying a similar name is rampant this time as well in the Maharashtra assembly electioneering. This charade had played havoc for some prominent leaders in the past. For instance, NCP (Ajit) leader Sunil Tatkare lost the 2014 Lok Sabha election from Raigad by a mere 2100 votes since another namesake, also Sunil Tatkare, polled over 9000 votes. Influential Congress leader and former chief minister AR Antulay, too, lost from Raigad in the past since another AR Antulay received more than 21000 votes. This time, such instances are quite a few in the district. In Panvel assembly constituency, there are three candidates with the same name, Balaram Patil and also three Prashant Thakur contestants. While the real Patil is in the fray for the Shiv Sena (UBT), sitting BJP MLA Thakur is testing his luck for a second time. Karjat’s present MLA Mahendra Thorve of the Sena (Shinde) has to take on an adversary of the same name. In Alibaug, Sena (Shinde) nominee Mahendra Dalvi is engaged in a battle with three more Mahendra Dalvi names. Moreover, an independent candidate in the constituency, Dilip Bhoir, is facing another opponent of the same name. The district was in the news in 2004 for the first time when Peasants and Workers Party leader Meenakshi Patil was poised against seven independents bearing the same name. Eventually, the PWP bagged the seat, but only after a bitter fight. How many of these aspirants remain in the ring will be clear only on 4 November, the last day for withdrawal.

The Congress party in Maharashtra is engaged in fire fighting over many thorny issues, among them the minority representation grievance since a sentiment is spreading that the party leadership has yielded too much to the Shiv Sena (UBT) in ticket distribution. In Mumbai, Thane and Konkan, the party has hardly a token presence among the 75 seats of the region. Here, the fight will be mainly between the two Sena factions, the other led by chief minister Eknath Shinde. Moreover, murmurs are heard that many loyal veterans and most Muslims aspirants are handed out a raw deal in ticket distribution. The decision of senior leader Ravi Raja to don the saffron garb has shaken the organization since Mumbai Congress president Varsha Gaikwad, MP, is under attack for this drastic step. She has been censured for getting a nomination for her sister. Among the vocal dissenters is Sufiyan Vanoo, a former Wadala corporator. He has questioned the party’s decision to hand over several Muslim-dominated assembly seats to the Sena (UBT). The areas he has named include Govandi, Anushakti Nagar, Versova, Bandra (East), Byculla, Kurla and Kalina. It has been alleged that there is a plan to minimize the Congress presence in Mumbai and adjoining areas. Another factor that is haunting the Congress is that just two Marathi-speaking candidates figure in the party’s list for Mumbai. It is argued that the aspirations of the areas having substantial Marathi population have been overlooked by the leaders. Efforts to mollify the disturbed elements have intensified over the weekend.

A new political formation is shaping up in Maharashtra, indicating the possibility of a novel social engineering experiment. Maratha caste reservation’s chief proponent Manor Jarange Patil has roped in leaders from Dalit and Muslim communities to create this force, which he feels will impact the outcome in the coming assembly election. It is presumed that Dalit and Muslim voters had supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi for the Lok Sabha election, resulting in the ruling Mahayuti’s Waterloo. At the time, Jarange was given credit for this spectacular success of MVA in a few pockets in Marathwada. Now, he is trying to recreate the experiment on a larger scale. It will be called MMD, meaning Marathas, Muslims and Dalits. Jarange will declare the names of the candidates supported by MMD on Monday (Nov 3). Alarmed by this stance, his ardent opponents, the OBC leaders, have drawn up their own counter strategy. Their spokesman Lakshman Hake has announced that the OBCs, too, have prepared their own list and will reveal it soon after Jarange’s list is out. The list will identify Jarange’s supporter candidates and Hake will appeal to the voters to defeat them. The Marathas and the OBCs are two major vote banks in the state. The Muslims can decide the outcome in certain constituencies where their population exceeds 15%. On the other hand, the OBCs are considered sympathetic to the BJP. Jarange’s MMD equation was finalised after his meeting with Buddhist and Muslim clerics at his village in Beed district on October 31.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will sound the bugle in Maharashtra assembly electioneering on 8 November. Modi will hold a total of nine rallies across the state within a week’s time. The BJP strategists have decided not to take any chance this time after the drubbing received by the party for the Lok Sabha election. Accordingly, Modi’s rally route is meticulously planned. The first two public meetings of the PM will take place in Nashik and Dhule in north Maharashtra. The region is by and large favourable for the ruling saffron alliance and no efforts will be spared to exploit this sentiment. Senior minister Girish Mahajan is pulling out all stops to make both the rallies a grand success. The meeting venue in Nashik has been named as Modi Ground and Mahajan says it will be overflowing with lakhs of people. Modi’s blitzkrieg will be followed by visits of BJP’s star campaigners, many of whom are Union ministers. According to initial planning, Modi will be in Akola and Chimur in Vidarbha on 9 November. His next public meetings will be in Solapur and Kolhapur in western Maharashtra on 13 November. He will round off his whirlwind campaign on 14 November with rallies in Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Navi Mumbai and Mumbai. The six geographical regions have seat distribution as follows: Mumbai 36, Thane and Konkan 39, north Maharashtra 47, western Maharashtra 58, Marathwada 46 and Vidarbha 62.

The coming assembly election in Maharashtra will decide the fate of many money bags, spread across all major parties. A few notables of them are now talk of the town. BJP’s Ghatkopar (east) candidate Parag Shah has total assets of around Rs 3,383 crore.  He is followed by state minister Mangal Prabhat Lodha, whose declared wealth is exceeding Rs.440 crore. Lodha has been elected to the state assembly from the prestigious Malabar Hill constituency repeatedly. BJP’s Sameer Datta Meghe (Rs 159 crore) has been fielded from Hingana, Nagpur. His father Datta Meghe was a right hand associate of veteran Sharad Pawar for a long time. He then switched over to the BJP and the family has remained loyal to the saffron flag. BJP’s Prashant Ramsheth Thakur (Rs 183 crore) is the son of the then Lok Sabha member Ramsheth. A successful builder-developer-contractor, Ramsheth has been a handsome donor for various causes. Rajesh Sambhajirao Pawar (Rs 191 crore) from Naigaum in Nanded district is among the other high value contestants. Congress candidate Vishwajit Patangrao Kadam (Rs 216 crore), son of then education minister Patangrao, runs the Bharati Vidyapeeth, which has several engineering, medical and technical institutions in Maharashtra.  Another Congress candidate, Sanjay Chandrakant Jagtap is testing his luck from Purandar in Pune district and has property worth Rs.245 crore. Controversial politician Abu Azmi of the Samajwadi Party has assets of over Rs 200 crore. There are a large number of candidates whose wealth is around Rs100 crore or less. Now they are vying for public mandate to become law makers.

 “A rose by any other name would smell as sweet” said Shakespeare. With due modification, sugar barons in Maharashtra have proved that whatever political party they may belong to, sugar is sweet for them and their peers. This is because many prominent candidates for the state assembly election own or control sugar cooperative or private sugar factories. If not themselves, their family members find a place in the lists declared so far. Expectedly, NCP president Ajit Pawar heads the list while his bete noire Jayant Patil of the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) is also among the top five. Pawar’s grandson Rohit Pawar, a bitter critic of uncle Ajit, also figures in the roll. BJP’s Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil, who has travelled to the saffron party via the Congress and the unified Shiv Sena, continues to be counted among the most powerful sugar barons for decades. The latest turncoat Harshvarrdhan Patil, now blessed by the NCP (SP) is another name. State Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat, described as a dark horse, is indispensable for any such listing. Chief minister Eknath Shinde, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis or former CM Uddhav Thackeray don’t have any sugar connection directly though some of their close followers do have an interest in the sector. Shinde’s confidant Tanaji Sawant, public health minister, is among them. BJP’s Abhimanyu Pawar, once a private secretary to Fadnavis, finds a place as well. These are only a few examples. In unison, they have proved the dictum that sugar is a great sweetener which binds those holding the reins of power in Maharashtra. 

The lure of number nine (9) is manifesting in different forms for the coming Maharashtra assembly election though the attraction is at least four decades old. At present, the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena have chosen number nine for their initial lists of candidates. The BJP has declared 99 nominees so far while the Sena (Shinde) and MNS have announced 45 names each, achieving a total of nine. But the association of number nine and politics in the state goes back to the first Sena-BJP alliance formed by Balasaheb Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan. The division of the 288 constituencies was originally to be 168 (SS) and 120 (BJP). However, at Balasaheb’s suggestion, it was changed to 171 and 117, so as to make the total nine. Incidentally, Raj Thackeray has stuck to the numeral. His party was formed on the 9th, his cars bear the same number and all his important events are connected with nine. A little known fact is that even Union minister Nitin Gadkari chooses the number for his cars, which bear the numerals 27, 2727 or 81 on their number plates. Chief minister Eknath Shinde, too, seems a firm believer in the power of nine. The number of his car is 567, making a total of nine. In numerology, it is called the Cardinal Number, and is held to be very auspicious. How nine benefits which candidate, which party and which formation will become known on 23 November.

The once ruling Shiv Sena’s split has redrawn the political calculations in Maharashtra. Their impact will be tested in the coming assembly election as over two dozen constituencies will witness a pitched battle between the two Sena factions. The outcome can be decisive as the balance of power will depend on the ultimate political formation, which will happen by consigning the loyalty factor to the dustbin. Over the past few days, defections have been galore and every hour, turncoats declare their commitment for the party they join by deserting their original outfit. With the proliferation of candidates, each constituency’s fate is uncertain. The atmosphere is surcharged as the average Shiv Sena worker, belonging to either faction, is facing a dilemma of sorts. The prominent constituencies include chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat in Thane. The rival Sena (UBT) has fielded Kedar Dighe, who is a nephew of late Anand Dighe, the mentor of Shinde. Still, the most interesting fight will be in Dadar-Mahim since there will be three candidates, all of them loyal to the memory of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray. His son Uddhav has selected Mahesh Sawant, who will take on sitting Sena MLA (Shinde) Sada Sarvankar and MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s son Amit. Firebrand leader Narayan Rane’s son Nilesh of Sena (Shinde) will be locked in a fight with Sena (UBT) candidate Vaibhav Naik, a traditional foe of the Rane family. In Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar district, at least half a dozen fights between the two factions will take place. Strangely, several of the candidates from both sides were in other parties till yesterday. When it became evident that their party had overlooked their claim, they changed hats and obtained candidacy, too. The constituencies concerned are Sawantwadi, Kudal, Ratnagiri, Dapoli, Patan, Sangola, Paranda, Karjat, Malegaon, Nandgaon, Vaijapur, Sillod, Kalmanuri, Ramtek, Mehkar, Pachora, Ovla-Majivada, Magathane, Kurla, Mahad, Radhanaari and...

The Bharatiya Janata Party has taken a lead over other major parties by declaring its first list of a hundred candidates for the coming Maharashtra assembly election. The party is expected to contest around 160 seats in the 288-member house. Even as the partners in the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi have been haggling for their individual share of the seats, the BJP’s decision to come out with the first list is considered strategic. Already preparing for the election immediately after the Lok Sabha election was over, the party machinery is geared up to take on its adversaries. Significantly, the first list has few surprises as almost all the sitting MLAs have been asked to contest. The list is topped by deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis. A somewhat surprising nominee is state BJP president Chandrakant Bawankule, who has been accommodated in the legislative council after he was refused the assembly opportunity in 2019. He is considered a loyal follower of Union Minister Nitin Gadkari. A few days ago, there were murmurs that Gadkari’s loyalists were being side lined. Following some such news reports, a meeting between Gadkari and Fadnavis took place. Bawankule’s selection to fight for the assembly is considered as an adjustment. While the BJP candidates have gone into an overdrive, the hopefuls in other parties are still groping in the dark about their future. Their fate will be declared latest by Monday (Oct 21) evening, it is felt.

Maharashtra Congress president Nana Patole has become a stumbling block in the seat sharing talks with the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray. The simmering differences over allotment of seats in Vidarbha and in Mumbai to some extent are said to be the reason for the disagreement. “It seems Maharashtra Congress leaders are unable to take decisions in several matters. Hence we will talk with Ramesh Chennithala and Rahul Gandhi,” Sena MP Sanjay Raut said. However, the news has leaked out that the Sena will not join any talks where Patole is present. The Nationalist Congress Party led by Sharad Pawar is yet to react to the tricky development. Thus, the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi will have to negotiate a slippery patch very cautiously to land safely in the electoral arena. Over the past few days, a series of meetings have been held by MVA to finalise the seat sharing formula for the election to be held on 20 November. The regained confidence after the Lok Sabha election’s win needs to be retained since inordinate delays in such sensitive matters can vitiate the mood of the rank and file, the Sena feels. MVA leaders till now have reached an accord on about 200 seats of the total 288. The main impediment is the seat sharing in Vidarbha, where the Congress party has an upper hand. The Sena’s claim that it sacrificed seats like Amravati and Ramtek for the Lok Sabha election in favour of the Congress is not seen to be cutting much ice. This has angered Uddhav, who is not ready to wait any longer.  

Former Maharashtra chief minister Ashok Chavan is being considered by the BJP for contesting the Nanded Lok Sabha byelection. A Rajya Sabha member at present, Chavan and his father Shankarrao have been elected from Nanded repeatedly for the past six decades on Congress tickets. A father-son CM duo, the Chavan family has a close attachment with Nanded, an underdeveloped pocket of the backward Marathwada region. Both have represented Nanded in parliament and the assembly. Ashok’s wife Ameeta, was a Nanded MLA. At present, their daughter Shrijaya is in the news as the next Nanded candidate of the BJP for the assembly. While Ashok Chavan seemed ensconced comfortably in the Rajya Sabha, the unexpected death of sitting Nanded MP Vasant Chavan of the Congress has changed the political equations. Since the seat was wrested by the Congress from the BJP earlier this year, Ashok is considered the best bet to win it back. The Congress has announced the candidature of Ravindra Chavan, the son of the deceased MP. Nanded Lok Sabha constituency has a substantial Muslim population, it being an important region of the Nizam’s Hyderabad princely state. In view of this, former Aurangabad (Sambhaji Nagar) MP Imtiyaz Jaleel of AIMIM has declared his resolve to enter the fray. In case this happens, the arithmetic of the election will undergo a sea change. Whatever happens, Ashok Chavan will continue to be a member of parliament.

RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s Dussehra address in Nagpur is seen as an endorsement of the BJP’s policy of Hindu consolidation. It is like a green signal for the party to proceed with its agenda, the insiders feel. Bhagwat’s remarks will be helpful in boosting the BJP’s prospects in the upcoming Maharashtra assembly election since there is no ambiguity in his message. The tone of the address, delivered at the beginning of the centenary year of the RSS, will be interpreted severally but the RSS will continue its work undaunted, its veteran members say. The BJP had suffered in the Lok Sabha election since the RSS had not immersed itself fully in the contest. The BJP took due note of its displeasure and took corrective steps. The result was that it bagged Haryana, though with a nominal margin. The same formula will now be emulated in Maharashtra where the BJP lost 16 Lok Sabha seats due to minority collective vote in favour of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi candidates. Learning a lesson from the debacle, the ruling Mahayuti partners have been implementing their strategy in an organized manner. Still, there was uneasiness in the saffron camp given the clout of NCP founder Sharad Pawar. The announcement of the election dates and the candidates of respective parties is expected to occur at any moment now.  Hence, Bhagwat’s clear call has come as a welcome breather for the Mahayuti.

Former Maharashtra minister Baba Siddique’s tragic death in a shooting attack has once again churned the state politics on the eve of the coming assembly election. A former Congress leader, Siddique had only recently joined the Nationalist Congress party (NCP) led by deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar. Incidentally, but for a handful pockets, the party has no political space in Mumbai. Hence Siddique’s loss will be felt by it intensely. His son Zeeshan is a Congress MLA from Nirmal Nagar in Bandra. Siddique’s death just outside his son’s office and despite having ‘Y’ grade security has put the three-party Mahayuti alliance in the dock. The focus, however, is on deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis as he handles the home portfolio. His critics have once again trained their guns against Fadnavis, perceived as the main challenger for the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi. The demand for his resignation had started no sooner than Siddique was being moved to hospital. Congress scion Rahul Gandhi is among the prominent politicians to castigate the state government for the tragedy. Even some NCP (Ajit) functionaries, too, have joined the chorus. The police are investigating various possible connections behind the killing in the congested busy locality. A popular figure among politicians and Bollywood, the image of the Mumbai police has suffered but the fallout will have to be faced by the political leadership. The embattled Mahayuti will need a herculean effort to emerge from the situation. 

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar was hitting the headlines all these days since several hopefuls from other parties were ‘homecoming’ into his Nationalist Congress Party to obtain candidature with his blessings. The spree appeared to be swelling further but has hit a sudden roadblock, that too in Baramati. A recent decision of the Pawar father-daughter duo has posed a daunting challenge for the octogenarian in his home turf. Many of his traditional followers have warned him of an upheaval if BJP-deserter Harshvarrdhan Patil is given candidacy from Indapur, adjacent to Baramati. Patil family has been nursing a grievance against Pawar for many decades. He had left the Congress in 2019 to join the BJP. But no plum position came his way. For the coming assembly election, too, there was no clear cut assurance from the BJP for a ticket. Therefore, Harshvarrdhan Patil’s plea to Pawar and the positive reciprocation he received have angered the loyal NCP workers. In a public rally, they have told Pawar to be prepared to face “India’s biggest revolt” if Patil is chosen to contest on their behalf from Indapur. The venue for the rally was the same wherein Patil was admitted into the NCP a few days ago. However, the turnout was much larger and had a substantial number of women present, sending warning signals for the Pawar camp. How the NCP founder quells the situation will decide the fates of many more party hoppers.

The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) cadres are gearing up for the coming Maharashtra assembly election, which will prove a game changer, whatever the outcome. If the results favour the three-party ruling Mahayuti, the NDA will face various coming state assembly  fights next year with renewed confidence. On the other hand, a repeat of the Lok Sabha results will add to the UPA ammunition. Hence, the saffron planning is to ensure that the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi does not benefit for any reason, especially due to the narrative regarding the change in the constitution. As part of this strategy plan, a meeting is reported to have been held in Nagpur between the BJP and the RSS to review the scenario. A highlight of the deliberations was that the core message of Hindutva must be the focal point of campaigning. Similarly, while distributing tickets, care must be taken not to rub the party’s loyal workforce the wrong way. In other words, the BJP must ensure that its long-time workers are not sidelined in the process. This election will be crucial for the BJP as a win in the second largest state, Maharashtra, will boost its morale. As the Mahayuti formation has somehow complicated the exercise of seat sharing, the BJP is intent on improving upon its strike rate, which was quite low in the Lok Sabha election. According to the party’s calculations, over a dozen parliamentary seats were lost with rather slim margins and can be won over now with more aggressive campaigning.

The exit poll predictions about Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir assembly elections have sent cautionary signals to both camps in Maharashtra. While the ruling Mahayuti feels it needs to reinvigorate its cadres, the opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is worried that its workers can become complacent and take the victory in the coming election for granted. Sensing the possibility of doom spreading over the BJP workforce in case the party loses on 8 October, as forecast, Prime Minister Narendra Modi injected a new spirit in the organisation during his Saturday (Oct 6) visit to Maharashtra. He blasted the Congress party like never before while highlighting the developmental work his government has initiated in the state. The party’s election strategy will be redrawn after Haryana and Jammu-Kashmir results on October 8. To capitalise on its spectacular performance in the Lok Sabha election, the MVA is determined to improve upon its parliamentary score. The Congress, the main partner, is confident of a fabulous win. Expression to this feeling by various party leaders has been worrying the other two partners – the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar. Moreover, the complacency already visible among the workers will have to be ended soon by the leadership. The electioneering will start from 14 October, a day after Dussehra, as soon as candidates are announced by different parties.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar has once again shown his indomitable durability by immersing fully in the preparation for the coming Maharashtra assembly election. Busy from dawn till late in the night, Pawar has been receiving delegations and hopefuls throughout the day, besides holding strategy sessions. As usual, his team ensures that all such goings on are widely covered by the media, electronic and the print. Over the past two days, Pawar has been concentrating on the Marathwada region, once loyal to him. Presently, his NCP faction has been left with just a couple of MLAs from the backward region while half a dozen had walked out with his nephew, Ajit Pawar. Some of them have already called on the NCP founder in a bid to stage a homecoming. Similar is the scenario in Pune district, till recently under the influence of Ajit Pawar. The recent Lok Sabha rout of the NCP(Ajit) has changed the power equation for both, the uncle and the nephew. Over the past few days, many of Ajit’s followers have openly said they are seeking Sharad Pawar’s blessings for a comeback. The BJP, too, is roasted by Pawar’s magnetism. Several of its workers at different levels are desirous of switching over for a possible win. Political observers, however, are perplexed that the Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde has remained impervious to Pawar’s charm in this season of great political churning.

Former Maharashtra minister Harshvarrdhan Patil has decided to join the NCP under Sharad Pawar, his traditional family foe. Patil had joined the BJP in 2019 and had said, “Now I can sleep peacefully, no worry about the ED or the Income Tax department.” His candid admission had provided much cannon fodder to the opposition in general and to Sharad Pawar in particular. Patil’s family elder Shankarrao and the Pawar clan had never seen eye to eye because the Patil patriarch always complained that their empire in Indapur was deprived of development as funding was diverted to Baramati next door. In the last assembly election, Ajit Pawar had held a public rally in Indapur to declare that Harshvarrdhan Patil will be trounced. Ajit’s close follower Dattatray Bharne was elected there. Since then, an exasperated Patil had mounted scathing attacks against Sharad and Ajit Pawar. According to the present Mahayuti formation, the Indapur seat will go to the NCP(Ajit) and Harshvarrdhan will stand little chance of getting a BJP ticket. Maharashtra’s Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had been trying to persuade Patil to stay on but to no avail. Unwilling to wait any longer, Harshvarrdhan Patil has decided to enter Sharad Pawar’s party. Quizzed by the media about his past comment and asked if he will be able to get a sound sleep now, Harshvarrdhan quipped, “No comment.”

The Mahayuti government in Maharashtra has taken a record 71 decisions within a week, most of them with an eye on the coming assembly elections. The three-party government is already under fire due to opposition’s criticism that huge funds are being squandered on various sections of the population to gain their votes. The “Laadki Bahin” scheme, for instance, is mostly targeted by the critics since it has evoked unprecedented support from women, each eligible beneficiary getting Rs 1500 per month. Similar benefit schemes have been announced for the youth and farmers, among others. Although the opposition is screaming about the possible economic burden due to them, it has promised to enhance the provisions if it comes to power. According to another decision, an economic development corporation for the Jain community will be set up in the state. This will be the first such body for Jains in the country. As the community is viewed as affluent, by and large, many eyebrows are raised owing to the decision. Earlier, an economic development corporation for the Brahmin community was announced. Similarly, financial provision will be made for the cultural or academic institutions of the Buddhists. Each such body will be paid Rs 10 lakh by the government. A major decision has provided for abolishing the non-agricultural tax throughout the state. Several institutions are to be renamed, considering the social sensitivities of the individual areas they are operating in. No stones will be left unturned to win the election, the Mahayuti has indicated.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of the three main opposition parties in Maharashtra is in search of a formidable candidate who can take on chief minister Eknath Shinde in his home constituency of Kopari-Pachpakhadi in Thane city. Shinde has been representing this assembly seat since it was created in 2009. This being a traditional Shiv Sena stronghold, a keen fight will be seen for the first time in many years here. Under the unified Sena, Thane had been a virtual monopoly of the party. However, Shinde broke away from the parent party in 2022, taking along many legislators and corporators. This will be the first trial of strength between the two Sena’s with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena standing by Shinde, making his position stronger. At the same time, the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has proved again and again over the past two years that its popularity is not reduced much in the Mumbai-Thane belt, which controls nearly 75 seats in the 288-member assembly. Uddhav and his followers have vowed to make Shinde bite the dust, calling him a traitor. In retaliation, Shinde and his mentor late Anand Dighe are now projected as protectors of Hindutva. The ‘Laadki Bahin’ scheme launched by Shinde is proving extremely popular and is expected to reap bonus for himself and the Mahayuti alliance. Realising the possibility, the MVA has decided to mount a challenge for Shinde on his home turf.

The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has been placed in a firmer position to demand most assembly seats in Mumbai following its youth wing’s spectacular victory in the Mumbai University senate election held a couple of days ago. The outcome has enhanced Aaditya’s clout and his party’s prospects for Mumbai. Over the years, the Sena has been a dominant political player in Mumbai, relegating the BJP to a secondary position when both were together. Since the Sena split in 2022, it was felt that the party will be weakened considerably. However, Uddhav has established that its popularity is hardly affected. The Sena won the legislative council election from the Mumbai Graduates’ constituency with a solid margin earlier this year. The win in the senate election has endorsed the fact that the Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena faction has failed to make its mark in Mumbai in spite of the fact that several MLAs and corporators had followed Shinde out of the party. The three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi swept the Lok Sabha election in Mumbai and Maharashtra, sending alarm signals for the saffron Mahayuti alliance. The senate election was a fight between the Sena (UBT) and the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, under the Sangh Parivar. Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirmal Sena’s youth wing and other student organisations had kept away from the prestigious election.

Former Lok Sabha member Priya Dutt is planning to contest the coming Maharashtra assembly election from her home constituency of Bandra West, her supporters are saying. Though she herself has kept mum on the possibility, Mumbai Congress president Varsha Gaikwad, MP, has hinted so by saying that Priya can be a strong Congress candidate. She called on Priya at the Dutt family residence. Later, Gaikwad said Priya had worked for her victory in the recently concluded Lok Sabha election and hence she had met Priya to thank her. The elite constituency has been represented by Mumbai BJP chief Ashish Shelar since 2014. Till then, it was a fiefdom of Priya and earlier of her father, thespian Sunil Dutt. The Congress is relatively less strong in Mumbai. Therefore, candidates for each seat are being selected with utmost care. Knowing Shelar’s clout, not many are willing to take him on. Hence, the Congress is trying to persuade Priya, although she had lost the LS election in 2014 and 2019 against BJP’s Poonam Mahajan with huge margins. Since then, she was hardly visible politically. But the Congress prospects appear better now since in the recent LS election, the Bandra West segment gave only a slender margin to the BJP’s Ujjwal Nikam, although he lost against Gaikwad. The changing situation has renewed the chances of Priya staging a comeback.

Amidst persistent speculation about Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar’s future moves, the appointment of his NCP’s lone Lok Sabha member Sunil Tatkare as chairman of the prestigious parliamentary committee on energy and natural gas is viewed as a BJP sop to keep Ajit in the NDA flock. Ajit was reportedly sore as none of his party MLAs was given any important post in the state whereas chief minister Eknath Shinde’s supporters are appointed to major corporations like CIDCO and MHADA. Moreover, veteran leader Sharad Pawar has added to the suspense by declaring that though Ajit is away from the original NCP, the Pawar family is intact. Of late, Ajit has repeatedly said that his ambition to become the CM has remained unfulfilled. “I am stuck at the DCM’s post,” he said while expressing his frustration. When asked about this, DCM Devendra Fadnavis cryptically said that even if a party had a single MLA, he or she could aspire to become the CM. Just a day ago, Fadnavis had claimed that the BJP lost a dozen LS seats with narrow margins since Ajit’s NCP’s votes were not transferred to the BJP candidates. On the other hand, Shinde Sena’s votes were received, he suggested. The Centre’s decision to accommodate Tatkare will prompt all concerned to rethink their future strategy, it is felt. The picture will start becoming clear in a week’s time.

The ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra are facing the same challenge: increasing pressure from their supporters as finalization of the candidates for the 288-member state legislative assembly is taking its own time. The uneasiness is becoming vocal as the Election Commission has announced its visit to Mumbai early next week. This is the first time in the state’s history that there will be six major parties in the electoral arena in the state. The two Shiv Sena factions, the two NCP blocs, the BJP and the Congress are all trying to emerge as the single largest party in this crucial election, which will determine the political future of several prominent leaders. Given the Lok Sabha results, the MVA is confident of grabbing power while the Mahayuti has been showering one benefit after another on various sections of the population to stage a comeback. Political observers recall how MVA had taken a lead over the saffron alliance in the case of declaring LS candidates. According to present indications, the BJP is preparing to fight 160 seats, leaving about 130 for the two partners and the supporters from the smaller parties. On the other hand, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s various statements are interpreted to mean that the election will take place between 10 and 20 November.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray has warned against the release of The Legend of Maula Jatt, a Pakistani blockbuster, in the state. If permitted, the film will be screened just around the beginning of the Navratri festival. Also, it will be the first Pakistani movie to be released in India after 13 years. The previous Pakistani movie Bol was shown in 2011. Pakistani artists can’t work in India since 2016 following the Uri terror attack in Jammu & Kashmir. Thackeray’s warning comes following reports that the film will be released only in Mumbai. Thackeray’s affection for art is well known. Himself a renowned cartoonist, Raj is frequently seen at silver screen events. He has observed, “Art does not have national frontiers. This may be all right in other cases, but for Pakistan, this will not do at all. What is this business of bringing here actors to dance from a country whose whole existence depends upon hatred of India? Let alone Maharashtra, the government should not allow this movie to be screened in any state of the country,” he quipped. Warning of action if theatre owners went ahead to screen the film, Raj Thackeray has reminded all concerned of what MNS has done in the past when such incidents occurred. The rank and file of MNS is recharged with Raj’s warning in view of the impending assembly election in the state. 

The Maharashtra BJP’s insistence to contest at least 160 seats in the 288-member legislative assembly election has posed a challenge for the Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by Deputy CM Aji Pawar since both will have to be content with just about 60 seats for each. The seat sharing talks within the ruling Mahayuti are at an advanced turn though the BJP’s position as the largest partner has been accepted by both. However, the tacit tussle to occupy the second position is now becoming apparent as Ajit Pawar has made it clear that his party will need to contest over 60 seats. Both parties have almost an equal strength in the outgoing house. The Mahayuti is more or less agreed on around a hundred seats but the substantial chunk is still under negotiations. While Shinde has established his own channel with New Delhi, Ajit’s public postures are becoming a matter of speculation. His latest displeasure with the purported anti-minority utterances by some Sena-BJP leaders and Shinde’s implied support of those leaders, though in a different context, has caused some discomfort in the Mahayuti camp. Ajit and Shinde are thus facing a daunting challenge since they will have to persuade their followers to accept the seat sharing formula. It is likely to be finalised during Union home minister Amit Shah’s scheduled visit to the state next week.

Top Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat has been admonished by the Shiv Sena (UBT) for his unambiguous declaration that the next Maharashtra chief minister will be from his party. Sena MP Sanjay Raut has reminded Thorat that the Congress could win so many Lok Sabha seats in the state because of the Sena. The three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is presently passing through a critical stage of seat sharing. Expectedly, the main partners – the Congress, the Sena and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar – are vying for a larger share of the seats. Moreover, Pawar has already announced that his party is not in the race for the CM’s post. Thus, he has adroitly pushed the ball in the Sena’s court since Raut had been projecting his leader Uddhav Thackeray as the next CM. Till now, the Congress had maintained that a decision in this regard would be taken after the assembly election results are out. Hence, the announcement by Thorat, has jolted the Sena to indicate that it is also in the fray for the coveted post, earlier occupied by Uddhav. To reaffirm, Raut has remarked that though the MVA’s confidence has boosted, the Congress won’t think of fighting the election on its own strength. “If some elements are over-confident of their clout, the picture will be clear soon,” Raut said. The statements by Thorat and Raut are interpreted as a hidden power struggle in MVA though both have claimed that all will be well in the end.

Top BJP minister Nitin Gadkari’s sensational disclosure that he had been offered support for Prime Ministership by a prominent opposition leader before the Lok Sabha election is considered significant owing to its crucial timing. Gadkari generally avoids commenting on political developments and does not entertain any media questions in this regard. Hence, his candid revelation has surprised the BJP brass, which has refrained from reacting to it. The opposition, by and large, also has kept away from the potential bombshell. Gadkari has refused to name the opposition leader who made this offer to him. But the political grapevine is on overdrive to identify the opposition emissary. Various algorithms are applied to find out who it could be. Is he from Maharashtra? From Nagpur or Vidarbha? A former BJP member? Close to Rahul Gandhi or Mallikarjun Kharge? Or someone having tacit approach to the RSS decision makers? Of course, all these are supposition without any factual backing. Still, the suspense is mounting in view of the coming assembly elections. It is deepened since Gadkari has declared on multiple occasions that he is not interested in the topmost job and is happy with his ministry. In the past, his name was being discussed to become the Maharashtra CM but he had firmly rejected the idea. His only connection now with the state elections is that he is one of the star BJP campaigners.

Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has miffed his supporters by declaring that he has never hankered for the chief ministership. In the same breath, he has expressed determination to wrest power in the coming election. Conversing at a rally of an Old Pension Scheme organisation, Uddhav said, “You, the people of Maharashtra are my power, which none can take away.” Uddhav performed darshan of Sai Baba at Shirdi and later addressed the OPS meet at Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar. His observation is viewed in the context of the persistent efforts of his supporters to project him as the next CM of the state. The campaign had dampened some time ago as veteran NCP leader Sharad Pawar and state Congress president Nana Patole had publicly clarified that this issue will be discussed only after the assembly election results are out. Uddhav has refreshed the issue by giving an emotional touch to the meeting by saying that he had been invited to speak with its members though he had no power, no office now. “But you are my power. Nobody can retire me from this position. I don’t care for power, I am concerned for your future,” he said. Nonetheless, he assured the audience that he will wrest power and dispense justice to them and the people of Maharashtra. Uddhav has thus dwelt on both possibilities, although not in explicit terms. His statement, hence, can be interpreted in any way but will make his supporters think before taking any stand.

Maharashtra BJP is facing a quandary since the mass media is awash with reports about a purported internal survey conducted by the party in Vidarbha region. The reason – the prediction that neither the BJP nor the Mahayuti will fare well in the region. Although BJP leaders are yet to react to the news stories, the survey has reportedly said that the Mahayuti can win around 25 seats out of the total 62 in the BJP’s traditional stronghold. Vidarbha was once the Congress citadel and had stood by Indira Gandhi even after the post-emergency election in 1977. However, it has been a cakewalk for the BJP since 2014. The first jolt it received was the Lok Sabha election earlier this year as the Congress performed unexpectedly well, at the cost of the BJP. In 2019, the BJP-led saffron alliance had won 39 of the seats. However, after the splits in the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the configuration has undergone a sea change. In view of the Lok Sabha voting pattern and analysis, the Mahayuti will have no problem in remaining at the top but its dominance will be dented seriously, if one wishes to trust the so-called survey findings. According to the survey assessment, the BJP will be able to win 18 seats while the Sena (Shinde) will bag just five and the NCP under Ajit Pawar a token two. The overall tally of 25 for the Mahayuti will impact the alliance’s ambition of returning to power in the state in the election, most likely to occur in November this year.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has finally rung down the curtains on the speculation surrounding the prestigious Baramati assembly constituency by giving out ample indications that he will contest the seat this time, too. Ajit took this decision after he was advised that his shaky stance could cost the NCP(A) heavily. Ajit has also scored over the two other Mahayuti partners – the BJP and the Shiv Sena (Shinde) — by finalising nearly two dozen assembly candidates. Both these parties are still to decide on their nominees. Internecine power struggle and past rivalry with each other are hindering the list finalisation. The picture on the Maha Vikas Aghadi is a little different. None of the MVA partners has so far declared any name of a prospective candidate. Against this backdrop, Ajit has overtaken all other parties in the state. Equally important is his willingness to enter the fray after dilly-dallying for a long time. The other names in Ajit’s list include former home minister Dilip Walse Patil, senior leader Chhagan Bhujbal and the legislative assembly’s deputy speaker Narahari Zirwal. Not to take a chance, Ajit’s team started combing the Baramati constituency much earlier. The contest will be a fierce one if Ajit’s nephew Yugendra Pawar decides to take on his uncle. Yugendra is groomed by NCP founder Sharad Pawar ever since Ajit broke away from the parent party. Whatever the outcome, the seat will remain with the Pawar family, which has been holding it for the past 55 years.

After the spectacular response generated by the Maharashtra government’s “Laadki Bahin” drive, a new initiative called “Yojana Doot” has been announced by the Mahayuti regime. Under this, 50,000 youths will be recruited to propagate various beneficial schemes among the public at a monthly remuneration of Rs 10,000.  It will be implemented under the Chief Minister’s Yojana Doot programme. It has the backdrop of the Laadki Bahin drive which has evoked tremendous response, surprising the ruling alliance. To further consolidate public support, the Yojana Doot progamme is launched. It will be open to all youths between 18 and 35, provided that the applicants are graduates, are conversant with computer operations, are domiciles of the state and own a mobile phone. While one Yojana Doot will be appointed for each gram panchayat, for urban areas, every 5000 population will get one. Their assignment will be to take various state government schemes to the needy and help them to receive the benefits under them. The duration of the employment will be six months and will not be renewed under any condition, the announcement has clarified. Each Yojana Doot will have to prepare a daily report of his/her work and upload online. In case any Yojana Doot breaches the conditions of employment, he will be relieved of the responsibility. This programme, too, is bound to come under fire from the opposition parties, which have been attacking the Laadki Bahin scheme.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has once again publicly repented for parting ways with his uncle Sharad Pawar. This is considered an implied signal for the Mahayuti leadership to prepare for any eventuality, including Ajit’s probable decision to do a homecoming act. Although he has not said anywhere that he will desert the Mahayuti, his recent statements can be interpreted by his detractors to mean just that. At a rally in Gadchiroli, he advised the daughter of NCP(A) minister Dharmarao Baba Atram to reconsider her decision to enter the NCP (SP). Ajit said, “People don’t like creating rifts in one’s own family.” In Baramati, he said he had been elected uninterrupted since 1991 but if people wanted otherwise, someone else would be the MLA from Baramati. He, however, did not indicate who the next incumbent will be but his supporters are discussing the name of his son Jay, who has started touring the constituency, the fiefdom of the Pawar Parivar since 1967. Ajit’s chagrin over the defeat of his wife Sunetra in the Lok Sabha election is coming to the fore time and again. Coincidentally, some BJP workers from Pune have started expressing their opposition to the NCP(A). As Ajit has admitted to his own ambivalence in the present political atmosphere, revised electoral equations can emerge in the state.

Maharashtra BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule’s latest allegation against NCP MP Supriya Sule has enraged her supporters. Supriya herself has vehemently refuted the charges and challenged him to produce the evidence to substantiate it. A staunch follower of BJP heavyweights Nitin Gadkari and Devendra Fadnavis, the BJP leader has stunned the state polity with his so-called disclosure. According to Bawankule, she had said, “If Fadnavis comes back to power, we will be nowhere and this will be the last election for Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray.” Different versions of Supriya’s directions to her party’s spokespersons regarding the coming elections are floating around. The general tenor of the reports is that she has indicated to them to go soft on chief minister Eknath Shinde and avoid any statement on Maratha leader Manoj Jarange but zero in on Fadnavis. Referring to these news stories, Bawankule has attacked Supriya while making his allegation. Taking him to task over his remarks, Supriya has challenged Bawankule to produce proof that she had asked her party spokespersons to hit only Fadnavis. “Show me a video making such a statement,” she has said. Fadnavis and Supriya are the two names which are repeatedly making rounds of the political grapevine as the next CM choice. Hence Bawankule’s advocacy of Fadnavis is hardly surprising. Other major parties in the state have so far kept away from this slanging match.

Nationalist Congress Party president Sharad Pawar’s choice for the next Maharashtra CM will not be Uddhav Thackeray. This sensational claim made by DCM Devendra Fadnavis has further dented the campaign started by the Shiv Sena leader’s followers to project him as the future chief minister. Pawar and state Congress president Nana Patole have publicly negated Uddhav’s demand to declare the name of the next Maha Vikas Aghadi CM in advance. Both have reiterated that a decision in this regard will be taken at an appropriate time. The Sena (UBT) has maintained a stoic silence ever since on this issue, unlike its practice to react to any development, big or small, instantly. Using the opportunity of his interview taken by a private news channel, Fadnavis ridiculed the efforts being made to project Uddhav as the unanimous MVA leader in Maharashtra. Fadnavis did not mention any other name in this connection but left his remark hanging, so that enough suspense pervades the opposition camp. Pawar himself has added to the guessing game. Though he had claimed that his party would not be in the race for the post, he has now added another rider by stating that the party with the largest number of MLAs will stand the chance. Fadnavis rubbed Uddhav the wrong way by remarking that the three-day recent visit of the Sena leader to Delhi had failed to obtain Sonia Gandhi’s backing to his name for chief ministership. Uddhav’s backlash is awaited.

Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Ajit Pawar’s ambivalence regarding his relationship with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has once again rubbed the saffron sympathisers the wrong way. The second deputy chief minister of Maharashtra is still somehow finding it difficult to align with the BJP fully, since time and again, he has chosen to keep his distance from the RSS. His latest two-day Nagpur visit was more in the news due to his absence from the RSS headquarters where chief minister Eknath Shinde and DCM Devendra Fadnavis bowed before the memorial to RSS founder KB Hedgewar than his party political activity. Interestingly, Shinde and both DCMs later held a marathon meeting behind closed doors to discuss and plan their strategy for the assembly election. Ajit’s cautious approach towards the BJP-RSS stands in stark contrast with Shinde’s unhesitant camaraderie with Fadanvis and Union home minister Amit Shah, among others. Shinde has been complimented by PM Narendra Modi during his Maharashtra visits, sending mixed signals. In Nagpur, Ajit held a series of meetings with his followers to assess his prospects in Vidarbha after his break away from his uncle Sharad Pawar.  Although the BJP has reportedly promised to accommodate the NCP(A) in the post-election equation, the speculation surrounding him does not end. The Nagpur visit has only provided cannon fodder to Ajit’s detractors, who have been making use of such incidents to corner him. 

The media’s reporting lingo is now being picked up by political leaders, it seems. Nowadays, several leaders on both sides are seen claiming that the information they are sharing has been ‘learnt’ by them. Like the media, they do not disclose the source of the information. Former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan has now joined the galaxy of such leaders. He has claimed in an interview to a private television channel that the Maha Vikas Aghadi will win around 180 seats in the coming assembly election, according to surveys conducted by Central agencies. Of course, he has not named any such agency. Based on his own revelation, Chavan has predicted that President’s Rule will be imposed in the state for some time to cool down the atmosphere, in which the ruling Mahayuti alliance is facing flak due to various reasons. Elections will be held after that cooling period, he has stated. Similar predictions have been made by many opposition leaders, forgetting their own statements the next day. Before the Lok Sabha election, almost every opposition leader worth his or her salt had alleged that the EVMs will dominate the election results in favour of the Modi government. After 4 June, hardly any opposition leader has lambasted the EVMs. An otherwise inactive Chavan’s sudden efforts to court controversy of one kind or another has raised eyebrows, mostly in his own Congress party. Especially as he has not been known for making outlandish statements. 

A purported internal survey carried out on behalf of the Congress party has reportedly forecast that the party will be the largest partner of the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the coming assembly election. This will lead to a stronger bargaining position of the Congress when seat sharing equations are discussed. The survey, it is said, has predicted that the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray will be the smallest partner with just around 35 seats in the 288-member house. The NCP led by Sharad Pawar will get nearly 60 seats while the Congress will emerge as the major claimant with an estimated 85 seats. This calculation, if it materialises, will mean that the MVA will win 180 seats and will form the next government. Meanwhile, the race for the next CM of the state is already on the cards. Uddhav’s appeal to the other two partners to declare the name of the possible chief minister has been ignored by both. Pawar has made the scenario murkier by declaring that his party will not be interested in occupying the hot seat. This has boosted the Congress party’s morale since it could win the largest number of Lok Sabha seats from the state. The first likely obstacle to be overcome in the negotiations could be the seat sharing in Mumbai, where the Sena wants to contest 22 of the 36 seats from the metropolis. The two other parties are awaiting to open their cards.

Even before the dates for the Maharashtra assembly election are finalised, strategies to discredit each other and spread confusing information to hurt the other side are gaining speed. Although the exact electoral adjustment plans of MNS leader Raj Thackeray, Republican leader Prakash Ambedkar and AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi are unclear, there is no dearth of speculation about which way they can go. To cash in on this suspense, NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s nephew Rohit Pawar has made a prediction that is bound to confound the picture. Rohit has claimed that the BJP bigwigs have hatched a plan to create a third front in the state to ensure that the opposition votes are splintered among several candidates. Rohit says that his uncle Ajit Pawar will be a major factor of this so-called formation and even Raj Thackeray could join it. Rohit has emerged as Pawar’s chief spokesman ever since Ajit broke away from the parent NCP. Rohit’s prediction comes after Ajit expressed regret over the collapse of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaja’s statue at Malvan in the Konkan a few days ago. Mahayuti, the three-party alliance government led by Eknath Shinde has been under fire for this serious mishap. Against this backdrop, Ajit’s unilateral decision to undergo penance has been interpreted variously. The damage control efforts of the alliance are said to be underway, sensing the potential of the stature mishap.

Political poaching by various parties is gaining traction in Maharashtra, in view of the forthcoming assembly election. Now that the Election Commission has given indications that the election, otherwise due in October, could be held after Diwali, all political parties are gearing up to face the five-year test. After the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of the three opposition parties trounced the ruling Mahayuti alliance in the Lok Sabha election, the politicking began in earnest. Veteran leader Sharad Pawar is leading the pack. A couple of days ago, Kolhapur’s influential BJP leader Samarjeet Ghatge announced his decision to enter Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party. Even as the shockwaves are subsiding, rural Pune’s prominent BJP leader Harshwardhan Patil is said to be on his way to Pawar. Significantly, Patil is an ardent opponent of Ajit Pawar. Seizing the opportunity, Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule has recalled her lifelong association with Patil. The trigger for Patil’s likely change of loyalty is said to be Ajit’s announcement to field his lieutenant Dattatraya Bharne once again from Indapur, Patil family’s fiefdom. Patil is expected to declare his final resolve in a couple of days. Sensing the possibility, Maharashtra BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule has made it clear that if Patil wishes to walk out, nothing will stop him. On the other hand, trafficking between the two Shiv Sena factions is on an increase while the Congress, too, is looking for an influx. The picture will be clearer after the 10-day Ganesh Festival is over by mid-September.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown his earlier self again, exhibiting his trademark confidence by challenging his detractors. At the same time, Modi’s unambiguous endorsement of the ‘Ladki Bahin’ scheme and the Mahayuti’s proposed election strategy is expected to heighten the morale of the ruling dispensation to retain power after the next assembly election, too. Modi was in Jalgaon in north Maharashtra for ‘Lakhpati Didi’ gala launch on Sunday. “Compare my 10 years with the seven decades of the previous governments,” Modi said aggressively while addressing a massive women’s rally at the venue. Just back from a visit to Poland and Ukraine, Modi once again underscored the role of women, receiving huge applause from over one lakh women present at the rally. To rub in the message more strongly, Modi condemned the atrocities against women while calling for the most stringent action against the perpetrators. Though he did not name any state or leader by name, his target was obvious. He sent clear signals that the campaign for the coming state assembly election in the state would dwell on garnering women’s support. The Maha Vikas Aghadi of the three opposition parties has focussed its campaigning against the Mahayuti government by time and again highlighting the Badlapur school atrocity against two tiny girls. CM Eknath Shinde has charged that the MVA is rattled by the unprecedented response received to his ‘Laadki Bahin’ scheme from women around the state and hence indulging in reprehensible tricks to attack his government.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar has once again confounded the political situation in Maharashtra. Known for his practice of making surprise moves and statements at the most unexpected occasions, Pawar has now declared that the Nationalist Congress Party faction under him is not interested in claiming the chief ministerial chair. The statement is significant since the other two Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partners – the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress – are seen haggling over the next prospective state CM after the assembly election. Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray’s repeated entreaties to declare the name of the likely candidate and the Congress party’s stern refusal to respond to him have already created an impression that all is not well in MVA. Pawar has set the cat among the pigeons, it is felt, by warning all CM hopefuls not to take things for granted. Political observers recall how Pawar had compelled the then Congress leadership to replace Vilasrao Deshmukh in 2008 as chief minister after the Pakistani terror attack on Mumbai. Pawar had asked his party leader RR Patil to step down as the home minister, leaving no choice for the Congress but to ask Deshmukh to relinquish. The Centre’s decision to deploy Z-Plus security for Pawar has already generated curiosity among his followers and opponents alike. On top of that, his latest statement has only added to the complexity of the situation. This is typical of Pawar, both sides concur.