Owaisi-Humayun Kabir Pact: Will Muslim Votes Split In West Bengal?

The Muslim factor remains the trump card of West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee as they constitute around 27% of state’s population. Despite persistent criticism of “appeasement politics” from the BJP, Didi has shown little inclination to respond, instead has positioned herself as a source of trust among Muslim voters. Consequently, her recent “special community” remark drew criticisms from the Congress and Left parties along with protests by the BJP. It elicited little concern within the TMC. Naturally, since 2011, Didi has focused on this voter base which has favoured the TMC. Before 2011, Muslim votes were divided between the Left Front and Congress. Banerjee consolidated this base over time, using the Sachar Committee Report to highlight socio-economic deprivation under Left rule. The Singur and Nandigram movements marked turning points, with many affected farmers being Muslims, strengthening her support and prompting shifts of Congress and Left workers to the TMC. The government introduced targeted schemes, including monthly allowance for imams in 2012, madrasa modernisation, the Aikyashree scholarship and the Kanyashree scheme. In the 2026 interim budget, Rs 5,713 crore was allocated to minority affairs. These measures contributed to the emergence of a Muslim middle class seen as supportive of the TMC. Her assertion that communities are “safe” under her government signals that policies like NRC and CAA could return if the TMC weakens. Analysts note that BJP-led polarisation has strengthened Muslim consolidation behind the TMC while limiting space for the Left. Electoral data reflects this shift. In 2021, of about 85 constituencies with significant Muslim voters, the TMC won around 75. Congress and the Left declined sharply.  For 2026, in the 294-seat Assembly, the TMC aims to secure around 75 seats through Muslim consolidation and another 75 through welfare support. This time there could be an upset as AIMIM headed by Asaduddin Owaisi has entered the fray by entering into alliance with Humayun Kabir’s AJUP, a former TMC man.