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Increased voting by women and a comparatively lower turnout of the Muslims for the Maharashtra assembly elections are likely to be the two major factors which can tilt the outcome of the crucial battle that will conclude on Saturday evening. These two trends have been commented upon repeatedly by several analysts while making a comparison with the Lok Sabha election’s voting pattern. As the turnout for this election has been the highest at more than 66% over the past three decades, both sides are claiming that it will benefit their candidates. For instance, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has suggested that the Laadki Bahin Yojana was one reason for the handsome response of women, who would support the Mahayuti nominees. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) failed to gauge the potency of the scheme whereby eligible women receive Rs 1500 per month from the state. Both sides have promised to enhance the provision after watching the unprecedented welcome it has received. Similarly, the lack of enthusiasm of Muslim voters as compared with the Lok Sabha voting complexion has emerged as another important factor for the final outcome. At least a dozen Lok Sabha seats went to MVA owing to en bloc minority voting. In Dhule, while the other five assembly segments supported the Mahayuti, voting in the Malegaon assembly changed the picture and the seat went to MVA. In view of such aspects, the results are awaited eagerly.
As the term of the present Maharashtra assembly ends on 26 November, the political calculations to capture power will have to be finalised within just 48 hours once the results are out. This has heightened the suspense about the outcome of the election since the richest state of India will play a crucial role in shaping the national political future. A mandate in Maharashtra will strengthen the prospects of both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state saw a brief spell of President’s Rule in 2019 as none of the claimants was ready to form a government within the deadline. Making preparations to avert any such eventuality, Mahayuti and MVA planners have booked dozens of rooms in five star hotels in Mumbai for the possible winners. Moreover, chartered planes and helicopters have also been booked in readiness to ensure the availability of the future MLAs. Another precaution is to keep them under watch so that sides are not changed at the eleventh hour. But the Lok Sabha results changed the picture as MVA won 30 out of the 48 seats. The exit polls for the assembly election have predicted a keen race, making it imperative for both sides to count on each vote. Therefore, the 48 hours after the results will become the game changer.
Alliance politics, an eternal feature of the Tamil Nadu political scene, has turned sharper with the advent of actor Vijay on the electoral stage. All the parties save the ruling DMK are running helter-skelter in their bid to stitch up an alliance before the 2026 Assembly polls. DMK is content to wait out the drama with parties rejecting each other as potential allies since this helps the ruling party to stay ahead in poll percentages. The arithmetic is simple. If the votes split three ways as they did in the Lok Sabha polls, the DMK stands to gain the most, or sweep everything as it did with 39 of 39 seats. If the votes are going to split four ways after Vijay’s entry, the DMK will be laughing all the way to Raj Bhavan for the swearing-in ceremony. The AIADMK, a shrewd player of alliance politics in the time of J Jayalalithaa, has not only split on her demise but also stands isolated in the alliance race. They don’t want to join the BJP again after the stinging 2021 experiment. Vijay does not want to join the AIADMK though the party would very much want the youthful politico on his side. The BJP is keeping the door open for AIADMK provided those shunted out are part of a united package. The DMK is only keen to keep VCK and its current allies on board. The more divided the opposition is, the better for MK Stalin and family.
In the wake of escalating face-off between the Chennai-based Tractors and Farm Equipment (TAFE) and its American partner AGCO over the ownership rights of Massey Ferguson in India, a two-member bench of the Madras High Court has stepped in to direct the warring parties to “maintain status quo until the original applications are heard and disposed of by the learned single judge. “For avoidance of doubt, we hasten to add that the observations made herein are tentative and solely intended for the purpose of disposing of these appeals. We have not delved much into the various rival submissions. All rights and contentions are kept open,” the two-member bench said in its order on Monday. The relationship between TAFE, an Amalgamation group company, and AGCO Corporation of the U.S. hit a nasty bump in April last when the AGCO management terminated commercial agreements -– including the one on licensing the Massey Ferguson brand — with TAFE. The Chennai firm quickly got a stay on this from a commercial court. When AGCO subsequently confirmed the termination, TAFE filed a contempt petition in the Chennai commercial court. Separately, TAFE also moved the Madras High Court, asserting its ownership right to Massey Ferguson brand. TAFE had got a favourable interim order from the Madras High Court. TAFE had filed a civil suit before the Madras High Court against Massey Ferguson Corporation, a subsidiary of AGCO, claiming that the said trademarks are distinctive of TAFE in India and exclusively owned by it. It had sought the Madras High Court to declare that TAFE owns the Massey Ferguson brand/trademarks in India. With the HC bench asking both parties to maintain status quo, all eyes are on the upcoming proceeding before the single judge. It is “advantage TAFE” at the moment, however.
With only 12 days remaining for the BCCI Secretary Jay Shah to take charge as independent chairman of the International Cricket Council (ICC), clarity has not emerged as to who would perform the duties of the Secretary from December 1, 2024. First and foremost, election has not been called for the post, and this could be because the BCCI Constitution has adequate provisions for its Joint Secretary to perform the Secretary’s duties. The BCCI Constitution says: “The President shall, in the event of a vacancy or indisposition of an office bearer, delegate the functions to another office-bearer until the vacancy is duly filled up, or the indisposition ceases.” In this case the BCCI President Roger Binny has the right to assign duties to any other office-bearer. Shah who has been the Secretary from 2019 may be allowed a grace period to hand over the work to someone else. Next week is going to be hectic for the ICC to take a call on the format and venues of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 (Feb-Mar) because the BCCI has conveyed to the ICC that India will not travel to Pakistan. The BCCI, nay Jay Shah, would like to see a finality to the Champions Trophy issue, in particular where India will play before he takes charge of the ICC. If the Champions Trophy has to take place, the Pakistan Cricket Board has to accept a hybrid model with one group (with India in it) playing league matches, most likely in Dubai and keeping the venue of the semi-finals and final, open. The PCB may not be in a position to lose the hosting rights and thereby with it a fee of around $ 70 million!
The ‘Satta Bazaar’ is betting down (dampened market sentiments) over Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) forming Maharashtra’s next government. A market player says, “Punters have never been wrong before. Dampened stock market spirits indicate the Mahayuti Alliance is unlikely to win notwithstanding sops galore unleashed by CM Eknath Shinde.” Differing with market pundits, BJP says, “Markets crashed after Foreign Portfolio Investors withdrew Rs 1.25 lakh crore in October (out of total Rs 71 lakh crore total stock investments in India) seeking better pastures after China announced stimulus. FPIs sold Rs 8700 crore stocks in April, Rs 25,600 crore in May then bought Rs 26,600 crore worth in June, Rs 32, 400 crore in July, Rs 7300 crore in August and Rs 57,700 crore in September before the big sell off in October. Already overleveraged NSE slumped, the subdued corporate sector quarterly results after much hype triggered a profit-booking mindset among investors.” Donald Trump’s ascendancy as the next U.S. president (previous tenure witnessed negative bias towards precious metals) bodes badly setting price corrections of gold and silver even as the U.S. dollar firms up, adding to Indian stock market woes. The BJP leader adds, “Maharashtra contributes around 14% to India’s GDP but even when MVA ruled for 2.5 years Modi-nomics ensured high buoyancy on Indian bourses despite stalling of bullet train project, Rs 14,000 crore cost escalation of Metro project.” The market punter, however, cites India’s financial capital Mumbai in Maharashtra that ensures most Indian business gravitates around the state while explaining the gloomy market mood over MVA’s likely win. November 23 will reveal the truth when the political bets are finally called out.
In a massive setback to AAP, Delhi’s transport minister and Jat leader Kailash Gahlot resigned from the party, citing “grave challenges” and “awkward” controversies in a letter to AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal months ahead of Delhi Assembly polls. He has joined the BJP. Gahlot’s exit is well timed in the sense that it comes days before Maharashtra goes to polls. AAP, an INDIA Bloc partner that has no stake in the state polls. But it must be said Gahlot’s exit was something that was in the works for some time now. It is believed that the seeds of discord between Gahlot and the AAP leadership were sown on August 15 over unfurling the national flag during the Delhi Govt’s I-Day celebrations. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, who was in jail on charges linked to the alleged liquor policy scam, had wanted Education Minister Atishi to unfurl the flag. Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena however felt Gahlot was more suitable for the job as he held the Home Department. Meanwhile, Kejriwal indicated that Gahlot had quit as he was under pressure from the ED and IT. In his resignation letter, Gahlot pointed to how “Political ambitions have overtaken our commitment towards people, leaving many promises unfulfilled”. In an apparent swipe at Kejriwal, he referred to “many embarrassing and awkward controversies like the “Sheeshmahal” — a term used by the BJP to refer to the CM’s residence renovated during Kejriwal’s term costing the exchequer Rs 45 crore.
A major controversy has erupted in Tollywood as over 233 directors from films, TV and independent media have filed a defamation suit against Swarup Biswas, president of the Federation of Cine Technicians and Workers of Eastern India. The Rs 23-crore lawsuit follows Biswas’s contentious remarks alleging rampant sexual harassment in the film industry, with 60% of complaints purportedly against directors and producer-directors. The hearing will take place on January 10. Swarup, the younger brother of Aroop Biswas, Bengal’s Power and Housing Minister and a close aide of chief minister Mamata Banerjee, finds himself at the centre of an unprecedented protest by Tollywood’s creative community. This is, perhaps, the first time that Tollywood has publicly challenged the Federation. Directors and producers have also criticized what they call “red-tapism” and “arbitrary demands” imposed by the Federation, including its control over unit sizes, pay scales, working hours, and technician selection. At the Eastern India Motion Picture Association’s (EIMPA) recent AGM, Swarup Biswas proposed that producers deposit Rs 5 lakh each as security to ensure timely technician payments, citing Rs 50 lakh in pending dues. Producers have outright rejected the demand, questioning the Federation’s accountability and EIMPA’s silence on the matter. Veteran actor-director Aparna Sen has publicly questioned Swarup Biswas’s credentials, asking for proof of his contributions to the industry. Biswas holds an assistant director’s card, which is reportedly issued only to those involved in at least two films. Actor-politician Roopa Ganguly also criticized the Federation, accusing it of politicizing the industry and questioning why filmmakers often seek the CM’s intervention during crises.
If rising onion prices decided the election outcome in many states some decades ago, falling soybean prices could impact the outcome in around 70 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, representing two ends of the political spectrum, are found promising farmers of much higher rates, but only after they are elected on 20 November. The sensitive constituencies are spread in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, where cotton and soybean are the main cash crops. The current market rate of Rs 4000 per quintal is unacceptable to the growers though they have no choice but to sell the produce as it can’t be stored for long. The MSP is Rs 4800 but not enough stocks are lifted by the machinery. The ruling saffron alliance has been promising better tariffs. The government hiked the soybean import duty in a bid to jack up the prices but the hike was of only around Rs 400, still leaving a gap of the same amount. Sensing the distress and the government’s inability to make any major announcement, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised Rs 6000 per quintal of the legume. To go a step further, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has pledged to pay Rs 7000. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also joined the chorus. The two regions had by and large supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha election. Hence, Mahayuti leaders are wary of saying anything that can dampen their prospects.
Are the re-runs slowly becoming a revenue model both for producers and exhibitors who have been grappling to bring back the audiences to cinema halls? Diwali turned out to be decent but then again we are gone back to re-release of films. Shah Rukh Khan’s Veer Zara re-release has been appreciated. Rakesh Roshan plans a re-release of Karan Arjun with a huge number of screens after 30 years of its release. This again has Shah Rukh Khan and Salman Khan coming together for the first time on screen. SRK’s Kal Ho Naa Ho and Pardes too are re-releasing in cinemas. Those in the trade feel that re-release of Tumbbad, Rehna Hai Tere Dil Mein and Laila Majnu have given courage to producers to cash on re-runs. The re-runs have stirred both excitement and curiosity. Traditionally, re-releases were reserved for timeless classics, but now more recent films are being revived, prompting questions: Is this trend purely nostalgic, or is there a deeper strategy at play? According to Trade Analyst Saurabh Varma, the re-release phenomenon is benefiting the cinema industry in multiple ways. For producers, re-releasing films is a cost-effective option. The marketing and distribution expenses are far lower than for new releases. Re-releases tap into the large fan bases of iconic films, giving long-time fans a chance to relive their favourite stories on the big screen. Furthermore, these revivals provide a unique opportunity for younger viewers who may have missed these films during their initial release. The combination of nostalgia and iconic music resonates deeply with audiences.
Gambling syndicates in Kolkata are offering bets on the results of 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly elections, including picking the winners of 294 seats. The official results will be out on May 2. So, who will form the next government? How many seats will the TMC win? Will the BJP improve its tally? You get some answers from the bookies, based on their projections, as on April 12: BJP may win 154-156 seats, while TMC may bag 116-118 seats and the balance by other political parties. The going rate is even money, that is, 1:1, for both TMC and BJP. BJP is clearly the favourite as of now. Bookies are paying Rs 1.20 for WB Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who is contesting from Nandigram and Rs 0.40 (40 paise) for BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari, Didi’s confidante-turned-adversary. Higher rate indicates lower winning probability while lower rate indicates higher winning probability. A month ago, before elections began, the bookies were paying Rs 0.40 for Didi and Adhikari. After the first phase, the rates for both Mamata Banerjee and BJP were Rs 0.90 each. The bookies were quoting a price of Rs 1.20 for TMC and Rs 0.40 for BJP after the second phase. High rate indicates lower winning probability, while lower rate indicates higher winning probability. The high-voltage poll rallies have kept the bookies on their toes as they are frantically exchanging notes almost every minute, and fixing rates for each party and candidate. Following the completion of the fourth phase of polling, Kolkata bookies claim BJP is clearly ahead of TMC. The fifth phase of the poll scheduled for April 17, may go in favour of TMC and Left Front, they speculate. As for the veteran political pundits, the fierce tussle seems to be leading towards a hung assembly!
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The new political brawl is not about vaccine-hesitancy or vaccine-denial but about the vaccine-scarcity, as the nation is hit hard by the second wave of pandemic. Mumbai, which is staring at a re-lockdown, saw supplies go down by half to about 22K jabs on April 10. Average jabs per day have touched 3.5 million a day versus the combined capacity of 2.4 million a day between Covaxin and Covishield. And there is no immediate capacity expansion in sight as Serum Institute CEO Adar Poonawala has written to the Government for Rs 3,000 crore to scale up operations – failing which it will approach banks for loans. Clearly, an opportunity to stay ahead of the curve has been frittered away. Meanwhile, other five vaccines, including J&J via Bio E, will be made available not before October! Suddenly, this realization hits you: Has India failed to reap the dividends of its global vaccine-science leadership due to investment hesitancy? Our failure to comprehend that in a pandemic-like extraordinary conditions, the free-market as well as the atmnirbhar economy operates not only on the principles of demand and competition, but also legitimate corporate profits – and the combo of incentives (guaranteed purchase agreements) and risk capital (for research and capex) extended by the State. This is evident in America’s successful vaccine roll with the state funding private pharma majors. Hopefully, there will be some aatm-manthan when Prime Minister holds the next Covid-19 review meeting with Chief Ministers.
India has leaped dramatically from Covid-19 vaccine-reluctance to celebrate the Tika Utsav since the first Covid-19 jab received by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 1 and the second one on April 9. From less than 1% of population receiving at least one dose of vaccine on March 1 (1.2 crore), the coverage jumped to 6.3% (8.57 crore) by April 9. Modi taking Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin dispelled all fear and doubts. “The Covaxin has not yet had Phase 3 trials. Approval was premature and could be dangerous,” Congress leader Shashi Tharoor had tweeted earlier. Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav announced he would not take the “BJP Vaccine”. On April 12 – the second day of Tika Utsav, and the 87th vaccination day – more than 37.63 lakh citizens (over 45 years) received jabs, making India the fastest nation to administer vaccine doses to 10.8 crore. With the states running mass campaigns – from high-frequency TV ads of Delhi Chief Minster Arvind Kejriwal to Sonu Sood being appointed as brand ambassador by Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh – the focus has now shifted to preventing vaccine wastage (6.5% nationwide) amid the second wave of pandemic. States like Telangana with wastage of 17.6%, Andhra Pradesh 11.6% and Uttar Pradesh 9.4%, will have to reorganise their efforts to meet the goal of keeping it below 1%. The task is critical as capacities are ramped up with new vaccines like Sputnik V getting regulatory approvals.
The untimely death of Sushant Singh Rajput last June kicked off a national debate about nepotism and outsider vs insider in Bollywood. The uncharitable lines one heard was: “Oh! Karan Johar is the son of a successful producer Yash Johar; Aditya Chopra is the son of an eminent director Yash Chopra; Sonakshi is daughter of a super star Shatrugan Sinha; Ranbir comes from the most celebrated Kapoor family so on and so forth. And this is why they made it big! Actually, all these so-called “insiders” had skills, which was a cut above the rest and proved their mettle to emerge successful in their own rights. Pedigree gave them entry, but it does not guarantee success. Or else how do you explain sons and daughters of successful stars not being able to make a mark. What about Feroz Khan’s son Fardeen; what about Abhishek Bachchan? What about BR Chopra’s son Ravi Chopra? What about the sons of Guru Dutt? What about the sons of Chetan Anand and Dev Anand? In the cricket world one can think of Sunil Gavaskar’s son Rohan and Kumar Mangalam Birla’s son Aryaman. The list is endless. People forget that in any creative field or even in sports it is the performance that finally speaks. Of course, luck too plays a major role. Rajendra Kumar may not have been considered a great actor but he was popularly known as Jubilee Kumar as all his movies ran for 25 weeks in theatres.
Prithvi Shaw went after the bowlers to notch a super strike rate of 11.37 runs an over in the IPL-14 rough night skirmish against Chennai Super Kings at the Wankhede Stadium on April 10. Not long ago, the poster boy of Mumbai schools’ cricket, Shaw was used to scattering the ball at Mumbai’s Azad and Cross maidans. Nothing in attitude though has changed, even when turning out for Mumbai or in the IPL. His go-for-broke knock of a 38-ball 72 gave a rousing start to Parth Jindal’s baby in the league, which is the Delhi Capitals. Shaw’s international career, which got a roaring start against the West Indies in Rajkot in October 2018 (he smashed a 154-ball 134) has hit the wall a few times. The news on the grapevine is that his technique is inadequate to deal with top pacemen, and that’s why he was exposed in the Adelaide horror Test in which India was shot out for 36. Prithvi made 0 and 4 and was dropped like a hot potato a week before Christmas. His Test average with one century in Rajkot and scores of 70 and 54 is still good at 42.37, but Shaw will have to go through the real hard yards to win the national selectors’ nod again.
Anil (Billy) Kapoor the legendary advertising man and former chairman of FCB Ulka passed away on April 12 at Sir HN Reliance Foundation Hospital & Research Centre, Mumbai. He had successfully battled pancreatic cancer almost a decade ago but it recurred aggressively a couple of months ago. He had been living in Singapore for the last several years and was flown back on Saturday. Unlike the fanfare behind the big brands he promoted, his funeral was a private affair. He along with Ranjan Kapur of O&M, Mike Khanna of HTA were referred to as the ‘Punjabi Club’. The trio controlled the era of big brand advertising. Billy was the last to go. One may recall what Ambi Parameswaran wrote when Ulka turned 60 in his column: “It was Bal’s (founder Bal Mundkur) bold move in 1988 that saved the agency. Or it was Anil Kapoor’s courage of conviction that he could rebuild Ulka in a new image. Anil joined as MD in 1988, identified some key managers to re-motivate and retain (Shashi Sinha and Niteen Bhagwat are still in FCBUlka/IPG Group); Anil also managed to rope in a few more – Arvind Wable, Nagesh Alai and yours truly.” Kapoor is survived by his wife, Rita, daughter Aruna and son Ram Kapoor who is a well-known TV star.
TRENDS & VIEWS
Editor’s Note: Big Punch In Small Pack
It is the Third Anniversary of Short Post and as a news media startup launched during the Covid-19 pandemic it certainly feels better than good to find ourselves where we are today. Here, I must cite the unstinted support of our seasoned contributors, all senior editors in the country, who brought a great degree of maturity and sagacity to the Short Post newsroom. But for them, our tagline “Authentic Gossip”, an Oxymoron, would not have matured viably. Our user numbers may be small but our stories have created the desired impact among people who matter — decision makers and influencers. We offer a big punch in a small pack and Short Post with its 225-word stories has been punching above its weight category. Having posted close to 3,000 stories in the last 36 months, Short Post, I feel, is an idea whose time has come.
And this is vindicated by our two marquee advertisers – IDFC FIRST Bank and ICICI Lombard. Both believed in our story and have supported us from Day one. A big thank you to both.
If you look at the media landscape – print, TV and digital — it is a mixed bag. There are job losses as some outfits have closed down while a lucky few were bailed out by large corporate houses. Yes, there is a lot of action in the digital space. However, the entry of corporate houses has raised the question of independence of news media outfits. Sadly, there are just a handful of independent media outfits in the country that are highly respected for their neutrality. At Short Post, our credo is not to take sides, prejudge issues or be biased but, informing readers of behind-the-scenes happenings. In essence, Short Post strives to be a neutral editorial platform — neither anti-establishment nor pro-establishment.
As I said last year, disruptions in the media world are moving at a fast and furious pace. Technology is playing a very big role in how content is generated and consumed. But, we are neither alarmed nor perturbed as it is all a part of the evolution process. What gives us comfort is that AI is unable to create original gossipy content. And that is the news arena where we have achieved a distinction.