If the same opinion poll can disturb both opposing camps with its forecast, the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll has just done that. Its Maharashtra poll survey has predicted 35 seats for the NDA and 13 for the Maha Vikas Aghadi. Denizens of both camps are somehow disappointed by this forecast. Interestingly, this prediction has come out close on the heels of the visit of Union home minister Amit Shah to the state and his resolve to win at 45 of the total 48 seats. The Opinion Poll has dampened the mood among the three MVA partners – the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray, the Congress and the NCP under Sharad Pawar. Already miffed by the changing stance of Republican leader Prakash Ambedkar over seat sharing, MVA is yet to finalise its seat distribution. In the fluid atmosphere, the survey has endorsed the general impression that the BJP will be the largest gainer in the state, winning 25 seats. According to another prediction, sitting MP Supriya Sule will face defeat in the family fiefdom, Baramati, which will be the most prestigious fight in the state. If the MVA is still groping for an understanding, the three parties in the NDA have given indications that they have almost finalised their slices following a discussion with Shah. This happened only after CM Eknath Shinde and DCM Ajit Pawar diluted their original demands. Now, more surveys are awaited to heighten the election fever.

Used to witness clashes between legislators belonging to the Treasury Benches and Opposition, Maharashtra Vidhan Bhavan was astounded when news broke out of a virtual fisticuff between a top minister and a ruling alliance MLA on Friday. Top minister Dada Bhuse and NCP (Ajit) faction member Mahendra Thorve rushed at each other after a brief verbal duel just outside the house lobby. Immediately, another minister, Shambhuraje Desai, tried to soothe them and took them inside. However, by that time, over a dozen legislators had seen the disturbing scene. While Bhuse later told the house that no clash had taken place, Thorve made it a point that he had asked Bhuse why certain works in his constituency were not getting clearance. Thorve has been elected from Raigad district and is considered close to DCM Ajit Pawar. Otherwise a low-profile leader, he lost his cool, he said, since even CM Eknath Shinde’s son had intervened so that the work would receive a nod, but in vain. When the CM was asked about the reported fight, he dismissed the question by saying, “Ask me about the house session, not such things.” The matter, however, was raised in the assembly by Opposition leaders Vijay Wadettiwar and former finance minister Jayant Patil. They both condemned the incident and expressed concern that physical assaults had now reached the legislature precincts.

As the Maratha agitation in Maharashtra may have fizzled out, the political knives are out between Devendra Fadnavis and Sharad Pawar. The agitation was scuttled in the backdrop of allegations of financial kickbacks, secret midnight meetings and even conspiracies to kill Manoj Jarange Patil. While the BJP has fired all guns against the original Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar, accusing him of being the mastermind behind the agitation and even hinting that the conspiracy was managed from Rajesh Tope’s sugar factory, Sharad Pawar has dared that he has nothing to fear and that no phone calls were made from him. Tope admitted that he had simply provided food and water to agitators from his constituency. Jarange Patil has hinted that leaders from all political parties would stand exposed in the SIT investigation, sparking speculation that the agitation had the tacit support from blocks within both the ruling and the opposition fronts. The Eknath Shinde government has been accused of deliberately playing footsie with Jarange Pati. All parties may have unanimously voted for 10% reservation for the Marathas in a special session of the legislature on February 20, 2024, but the aftermath of the agitation has led to a bitter fall out between parties eyeing the politically powerful bloc of Maratha vote bank. This vote bank continues to be splintered across parties and political machinations have failed to consolidate it behind any particular political block.

Maratha reservation agitation’s icon Manoj Jarange Patil has abandoned his audacious plan to lead a march to the Mumbai residence of deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis to press his demand. Already roasted by his former associates, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s stern warning to Jarange and his followers that they will face stringent action if they took law in their hand is believed to have resulted in his withdrawal of the march. Even Opposition parties, too, have indirectly expressed unhappiness over Jarange’s impossible demands, like asking the government to take and announce a decision within the next few hours. Now, his associate for 18 years, Baburao Walekar has charged that Jarange is hungry for publicity and had instigated his followers in the past to indulge in violence though keeping himself away from such acts. Walekar is the third leader to come out in the open against Jarange. The first was Abhay Baraskar, who is a noted Keertan exponent. He was followed by Sangeeta Wankhede, who became Jarange’s follower after he launched his agitation. She has alleged that Jarange was taking erratic decisions at the behest of a top NCP giant. Interestingly, Fadnavis had stated a day earlier that Jarange’s script resembled the statements of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray. On Monday (Feb 26), Jarange has announced the end of his indefinite fast. The battle over Maratha reservations is expected to enter the precincts of judiciary soon.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has shut all doors for the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray. In a TV channel interview, Fadnavis freely expressed his hurt over the way he was treated by Uddhav after the 2019 assembly election in the state. Fadnavis said political differences can be ironed out. But it will not be possible for the BJP rank and file to overlook the insults hurled by Uddhav at Prime Minister Narendra Modi day in and day out. Recalling his friendly relations with Uddhav for 25 years, Fadnavis said that the Sena leader even refused to take his telephone calls after the assembly election results. It is extremely hurtful to be stabbed in the back by someone you had close ties with, the DCM said. He also attacked NCP founder Sharad Pawar for going back on his pact to form a government with the BJP. Fadnavis made it clear that the people flocking to the BJP were coming by accepting its ideology. “We had just two MPs in 1984. Now we are in power. But throughout, we have never compromised with our basic principles,” he maintained. His statements have indicated that more incomings into the BJP are still possible. One such name being discussed is that of Eknath Khadse, a pillar of the Maharashtra BJP once upon a time. The Congress, too, is worried by the possible exodus. The state BJP leadership will soon administer some more political shocks, it is felt.

The entry of one ex-chief minister Ashok Chavan into the BJP fold seems to have landed another ex-CM, Narayan Rane on a sticky wicket. It has upset Rane’s plan to take the easier option of taking the Rajya Sabha route to Parliament. Instead, he is now forced to contest for Lok Sabha elections from the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg constituency, from where his elder son Nilesh Rane lost twice in a row in 2014 and 2019 to Uddhav Sena’s Vinayak Raut. Raut has now developed a strong local base and presents a formidable challenge here. The Rane’s continue to share bitter relations with the Uddhav’s Sena. Elder son, Nilesh Rane recently, issued threats to Uddhav’s legislator Bhaskar Jadhav from the dais of a public rally following a riotous situation between warring party workers with stone pelting leading and police lathi-charging and tear gases being used. Also, the Uddhav Sena faction has not forgiven Rane for his rebellion in 2005 and is gunning to defeat him. Rane, who is a party hopper, having moved on from the Shiv Sena to the Congress before joining the BJP with his two sons, is facing competition for his ticket from his own alliance partners. His constituency is being eyed by Eknath Shinde supporter, industries minister Uday Samant for his brother Kiran Samant, who has already started campaigning there. The Konkan belt had always been a Shiv Sena stronghold which the BJP is keen to get Rane to spearhead its party into the region.  

BJP’s 2019 ‘Political Decade Policy’ empowering cadre, gen-next portends ill for more famous leaders two tenures old and over 75 years old. Brahmin Medha Kulkarni, RSS ‘Karsevak’ Ajit Gopchade secured Rajya Sabha nominations since Kulkarni relinquished her Pune assembly seat for Chandrakant Patil in 2019, while Gopchade’s prominence rose after 1992 Babri mosque demolition. BJP spokesperson Atul Shah says, “Mega party BJP always emphasises generation next and is always widening our political horizon. While Maratha leader (newbie) Ashok Chavan secured Rajya Sabha, two BJP workers got nominations too.” Maharashtra BJP Executive Committee member Mahendra Jain notes, “Kulkarni sacrificed her Pune constituency so, her RS nomination satiates Pune’s Brahmin community. Clear political message is that famous leaders may not take their Lok Sabha candidatures for granted.” BJP’s policy saw Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar moved to Madhya Pradesh assembly as speaker earlier. Union minister Parshottam Rupala may not get Lok Sabha seat to set right Gujarat caste dynamics, unreasonable pressure from Patels. Rajnath Singh (73) may still secure candidature, Shivrajsingh Chauhan asked to prove election mettle after being sidelined for MP CM ship just like Vasundhara Raje. Narayan Rane is unlikely over health issues although his son may be fielded. Similarly, Chandrakant Dada Patil and Pankaja Munde may lose out. “No decision till now on holding simultaneous polls for Maha assemblies with general polls but, PM Modi who keeps plans close to chest, may still spring a surprise.” BJP will contest 28/30 Maharashtra parliamentary seats itself while also fielding candidates from Eknath Shinde’s party (like Milind Deora got Rajya Sabha). Shinde won’t seek many parliamentary seats, lacking worthy winning candidates,” the source added. Will Vinod Tawde be BJP’s Konkan face in ensuing polls?

The vexed reservation of the Maratha community, which the Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde was hoping to capitalise on, doesn’t seem to have gone well. Not only did it fail to halt the fast by Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil, it further upset him and he stated that the community had felt let down by the CM. “It clearly shows that the government doesn’t care much for the demands of the Maratha community,” he rued before announcing further intensification of his hunger strike and refusing treatment. The reservation issue has already been creating much unrest in the Marathwada region with bandhs and protests being part of the agitations playing out there. Analysts view the Maratha reservation issue as a box of false promises brought out before every election to woo the 28% Maratha electorate that is spread across all political parties. This was the third attempt by the Maharashtra government to promise reservations for the Maratha community, with earlier attempts being made by the Devendra Fadnavis government in 2018 and the Prithviraj Chauhan government in 2014. Each time the decisions were stuck down by the courts. Even Shinde is aware of this challenge and kept emphasising that this time, it should stand legal scrutiny, backed up as it was with data from an empirical survey from 1,58,20,264 households using computer assisted personal interviews. Even Jarange Patil is not convinced if it will stand in courts, and this fear could actually boomerang in the Lok Sabha polls.

The Maharashtra government has decided to cross the 50% reservation ceiling by granting 10% educational and governmental job reservation to the Maratha community. Already, the state’s total reservation is around 52%. Chief minister Eknath Shinde has said that 22 states in the country have crossed the ceiling so far. While moving a resolution to grant Maratha reservation, Shinde said the quota in Tamil Nadu was 69% whereas it was 75% in Bihar. The Maratha reservation demand was first raised in 1980. It was first granted in 2014 and then in 2018. While the first reservation was struck down by the Mumbai High Court, the second was rejected by the Supreme Court. Explaining this history, Shinde claimed that this time, the provision has been structured in such a manner that it will survive judicial scrutiny. He said nearly six lakh objections and suggestions have been received over the draft of the resolution, made public earlier. The Maratha reservation quantum, however, has been reducing in the state. While the 2014 reservation quota was recommended to be 16%, it was suggested by the High Court that the educational quota should be 12% and governmental job quota could be 13%. The reservation now will be 10%, if allowed by the court of law.

Though NCP founder Sharad Pawar’s right hand Jayant Patil has discounted any possibility of crossing over to the BJP, there are few believers to trust him as his bonhomie with the saffron party has been a matter of speculation in Maharashtra for a long time. When the NCP split in 2021 and Pawar’s nephew Ajit teamed up with the BJP as well as the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde, those remaining loyal to the veteran leader included Jayant Patil, who once was the state’s home as well as finance minister. In fact, his supporters started projecting him as a future CM of Maharashtra when the murmurs about Ajit’s restlessness were heard in NCP circles before the split. Though Patil downplayed this image building exercise, his ambition has not remained a secret. A highly qualified politician, Patil has kept himself away from any scandal all these years. In spite of the efforts to sully his name by his detractors, Patil had managed to keep himself above any acrimony, meekly accepting Ajit’s hegemony in the united NCP. However, since the split, Patil has emerged as the unofficial spokesman of the faction, in the belief that he speaks out Pawar’s mind. But the shock administered by former CM Ashok Chavan is too fresh in the public mind to take Patil on face value. Patil and Supriya Sule have vehemently refuted the possibility of him joining the BJP. However, even his own party workers feel that ‘wait and watch’ is the only option available to them before taking any decision about their own future.

Unlike the splits in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena, a vertical split has been averted in the Congress party for now, despite the exit of former chief minister Ashok Chavan. The exit of Chavan has failed to create a fissure in the Congress or even lead to an exodus unlike the exit of Eknath Shinde or Ajit Pawar from their respective parties. The exit of Congress leaders like Chavan, Baba Siddiqui and even Milind Deora has led to weakening of the Congress position in the ongoing seat-distribution talks within the I.N.D.I.A bloc despite holding the highest tally of 42 legislators in the Maha Vikas Aghadi; Sharad Pawar is left with 13 legislators and Uddhav Thackeray with 16 legislators. Soon after Chavan’s formal resignation, AlCC Maharashtra Congress in-charge Ramesh Chennithala launched into a damage control mode and called upon NCP supremo Sharad Pawar along with senior Congress leaders. He also led another delegation to Uddhav Thacekray to take stock of the situation. Pawar, who has been leading the charge of the I.N.D.I.A bloc, is said to have spoken to the Congress legislators and taken stock of the situation. Anjali Ambedkar, wife of Prakash Ambedkar from the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, had noted how their seat-sharing negotiators from the Congress side, be it Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil in 2019 or Ashok Chavan in 2024, had gone the BJP way. Who do we negotiate with in such a situation, she snubbed in a tweet.

Repeated stories in www.shortpost.in predicting that Ashok Chavan, former chief minister of Maharashtra will bid adieu to the Congress party are now confirmed, though he has taken his own time to decide. Chavan’s absence from the legislative assembly floor in 2022 when the house was voting on a motion expressing confidence in the government of Eknath Shinde had proved sensational. However, his clarification that he was held up in a traffic jam was accepted by his party. At the time, DCM Devendra Fadnavis had thanked the ‘invisible hands’ supporting the government. On Monday (Feb 12), there was a feeling of déjà vu when Fadnavis said that some bigwigs from the Opposition were expected to join the BJP. Within minutes, Chavan announced his resignation from the Congress and the legislative assembly. Although he has not confirmed his saffron entry, Chavan has not denied the possibility, either. “Wait for a couple of days,” is all that he has said for the time being. Even when Chavan had supervised Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra’s meticulous arrangements in his home constituency Nanded, www.shortpost.in had hinted at his restlessness. However, the news story was not taken seriously. Chavan, too, continued to participate in the party’s activities. Recovering from the shock, Congress leaders in Maharashtra are presently frantically contacting the party legislators since reports are circulating that several of them are preparing to follow Chavan out of the Congress.

Shooting incidents in Maharashtra have brought the Maharashtra government under fire and raised a chorus for the resignation of home minister Devendra Fadnavis. The killing of close aide of Uddhav Thackeray, Abhishek Ghosalkar during a Facebook live as also the shooting in a Ulhasnagar police station by a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) legislator have raised questions of the law and order situation in the state. Parallels are being drawn with Bihar and the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti government has come under fire especially from Uddhav Thackeray’s firebrand Sanjay Raut who has demanded implementation of President’s rule in the state. Raut has also been vocal against his bete noire chief minister Eknath Shinde for ‘goonda raj’ and ‘mafia raj’ in Maharashtra. He supported his claims by releasing pictures of gangsters along with Shinde at the state secretariat. The Uddhav faction of the Sena, which is under fire from various agencies, has upped the ante against Shinde and Fadnavis, who it believes are leading the charge to poach their legislators with threats of cases and other means to get them into the ruling alliance. A BJP internal survey in Maharashtra has been unflattering for the party; hence the overdrive to poach political support from other parties. These rising incidents of violence needs to be viewed from the lens of the escalating political tensions amidst the coerced realignments resulting in bitter local equations in the run-up to the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

A Mood Of the Nation pre-election survey carried out by India Today and C-Voter has predicted that the tripartite Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) consisting Uddhav-led Shiv Sena, the Congress and the NCP under Sharad Pawar will bag 26 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra while the ruling alliance of the Sena under CM Eknath Shinde as well as the two DCMs, Devendra Fadanvis and Ajit Pawar only 22. In 2019, the BJP-Sena alliance had won 41 seats. It is generally expected that it would repeat the performance, especially since Ajit Pawar teamed up with the saffron alliance. Buoyed up by the forecast, the Opposition in the state has started making claims that its Lok Sabha tally would exceed 35. Maharashtra’s LS tally is only second to Uttar Pradesh with 80 seats. Hence, Maharashtra occupies a crucial place in the BJP’s electoral calculation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s frequent visits to the state are interpreted as a sign of nervousness on the part of the ruling side. He is slated to pay his next visit on February 19 to launch some mega infra projects. According to the survey, the Congress will win 12 seats while the Sena (Uddhav) and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar would capture 14 seats together, leaving 22 for the NDA.  The MVA is feeling more confident ever since Republican leader Prakash Ambedkar has agreed to enter the LS fray under its banner. In 2019, the united Sena had won 19 seats, along with the BJP’s 21. The united NCP had four while the Congress and the AIMIM could win one seat each. The survey findings are rather surprising since it has predicted a BJP sweep in several major states, including UP, MP, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Meetings between public figures and underworld elements are no novelty but when they happen one after another and a chief minister or deputy chief minister (DCM) are in the picture, literally, eyebrows are bound to raise. Photographs of Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s son Dr Shrikant, MP, and DCM Ajit Pawar himself, besides his son Parth, receiving mafia members have gone viral over the past few days, igniting a political inferno. Coincidentally, this is happening when the state is rocked on account of indiscriminate firing by BJP’s Kalyan (East) MLA Ganpat Gaikwad at his foes inside a police station. Gaikwad had made serious allegations against Shinde and Shrikant. The CM’s supporters have taken objection to it and demanded BJP’s action against Gaikwad. Amidst all this, the first shock was notorious muscle man Gajaa Marane’s meeting with Parth in the latter’s Pune residence. Ajit later said it should not have happened and admonished his son. Within a few days, the CM was cornered when his son Shrikant received good wishes from Hemant Dabhekar, a known criminal from Pune, at ‘Varsha,’ official residence of the CM. The occasion was Shrikant’s birthday. Even before the dust was settling, Pimpri-Chinchwad’s don Asif Mohamed Iqbal Shaikh alias Asif Dadhi met Ajit Pawar. The purpose of the meeting is not known but it is believed that Asif is desirous of entering politics. The Opposition parties in Maharashtra have found ready-made cannon fodder and are making full use of the opportunity.

BJP Kalyan (East) MLA Ganpat Gaikwad, who fired several bullets at his arch enemies inside a police station, has made several sensational allegations against Maharashtra’s chief minister Eknath Shinde and his son Shrikant, MP. The matter is likely to snowball into a major political storm as this is the first incident of its kind in Maharashtra. According to Gaikwad, a property dispute at Ulhasnagar near Kalyan was at the root of the shocking incident. He has alleged that the father-son duo had been fostering goondaism in the area. Gaikwad has been representing the Kalyan (East) constituency for nearly two decades, becoming a thorn in the side of the Shinde faction. The critically injured Mahesh Gaikwad and Rahul Patil are said to be staunch followers of Shinde and Shrikant. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who handles the home department, however, has become the whipping boy for the Opposition. NCP MP Supriya Sule and state Congress president Nana Patole led the demand brigade seeking Fadnavis’ resignation immediately after the news of the firing spread like wildfire. On the other hand, OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal (Ajit Pawar faction) has ridiculed the demand asking “Did Fadnavis ask the MLA to fire?” A home minister would have to resign a hundred times a day if he is demanded to quit after each criminal incident. But Sharad Pawar has remarked that the incident shows in which direction the state is moving.

Former Union minister Milind Deora is emerging as a frontrunner for one of the Rajya Sabha seats which is among the six that are falling vacant from the state next month. According to the present statistics, all but one seat can be bagged by the three-party ruling alliance. The sixth seat can be won by the Congress party easily as it has the requisite vote quota, which is 42, to win the election. The Congress has 44 members in the lower house of Maharashtra. The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar have around 16 MLAs in their camps. Thus, even if they join hands for the election which is held in the open, they will have little chance of any victory. Moreover, the state assembly speaker, Rahul Narwekar, has ruled that the Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde is the real party. Hence, its whip will be binding on Uddhav’s supporter MLAs. Likewise, a hearing is going on about the disqualification or otherwise of the MLAs with Pawar. If the speaker’s ruling goes in favour of Ajit Pawar, the MLAs will have to obey the whip of the breakaway NCP. In that situation, the Congress will be the only opposition party left in the field. Deora has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Given his proximity with Shinde, the hopefuls in that camp will find it prudent to support the former South Mumbai MP.

Senior minister Chhagan Bhujbal is becoming the central point in the whirlwind scenario that is building up in Maharashtra over the state government’s decision to grant reservations to the Maratha caste due to his aggressive stance for protecting the OBC reservations. Chief minister Eknath Shinde and his two DCMs, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar have advised Bhujbal to ‘understand’ the government’s notification in this regard first before making any public statement. In retaliation for some Maratha leaders’ comments, Bhujbal has declared in front of his supporters that he will not hanker for a ministership if there is a choice between his post and his demand. In a bid to reinforce the BJP’s commitment towards the OBCs, Fadnavis has issued a veiled warning.  He said he would approach the party leadership if an eventuality to threaten the OBC reservations ever arose. When Fadnavis was asked about Bhujbal’s statements, he merely said that Bhujbal needs to maintain restraint. He can discuss the matter in detail after both meet. Ajit Pawar, likewise, said it would be necessary to know Bhujbal’s exact grievance and what the government had offered. Perhaps unsettled after several quarters have alerted the Maratha community about the difficulties in the way of securing the reservations, the agitation leader, Manoj Jarange Patil has reiterated his determination to fight out till it is achieved. Both camps are finalising their strategy and are unrelenting about their stands.

The adept handling of the Manoj Jarange Patil-led Maratha agitation not only consolidates the position of chief minister Eknath Shinde but also marks the emergence of Shinde as the dark horse of Maharashtra politics. Shinde, who himself is a Maratha, could also benefit electorally from the politically strong Maratha vote bank, that has been the mainstay of the Pawars — both uncle Sharad and his nephew Ajit — as also the Congress. By successfully containing the agitation on the outskirts of Mumbai, the CM now finds himself one-up over his deputies, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, both of whom nurse ambitions to upstage him. And the backlash is already showing up. Fadnavis has already clarified that police cases will continue against arsonists who indulged in violence against policemen specifying that only courts were authorised to withdraw cases. Shinde had promised withdrawal of all police cases against Maratha activists. Fadnavis supporter advocate Gunaratne Sadavarte has also threatened to challenge the government reservation order in the courts. Chhagan Bhujbal from the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP has also criticised the draft notification from Shinde government terming the reservation as an eyewash that will not stand up to legal scrutiny. The agitation has successfully helped divert attention from Shinde and his team of 39 legislators being called as ‘traitors’ by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena that kept Shinde on the defensive and threatened his electoral stakes. The agitation also helped divert attention from the negative effect of breaking two popular political parties — Shiv Sena and NCP for the BJP.

The Maratha caste’s demand for reservations, although granted by the Maharashtra government, will continue to dominate the state political scene for more time as two major issues are still unresolved. Firstly, there is a Supreme Court petition concerning the demand. The last hearing took place on 24 January but the outcome is yet not known. Perhaps more hearings could be needed. The fate of the reservations would be clear only after the Apex Court declares its verdict. Secondly, agitation leader Manoj Jarange Patil has been firm on his demand that all cases filed by the police in connection with the protest actions must be withdrawn forthwith. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadanvis has made it clear that it will not be possible due to legalities involved. Offences like setting houses afire with family members inside, mounting attacks against the police or torching public property can’t be withdrawn unless permitted by court. But Fadnavis clarified that all other cases will be dropped, as promised by chief minister Eknath Shinde to Jarange. Meanwhile, certain experts have started criticising the CM, suggesting that he has taken the agitators for a ride as the state government is not empowered to give such a reservation at all. To complicate the matter, Jarange has threatened to start another fast unto death if the reservations do not materialise. The ruling side’s insistence that the OBC reservations would not be touched to accommodate the Maratha caste will pose new problems for the government, it is felt.

The political age for young Turks is being reemphasized in Maharashtra again with pole positioning currently underway for suitable appointments to the state council of ministers once general elections conclude in April 2024. Union Minister for micro, small and medium enterprises Narayan Rane’s MLA son Nitesh Rane has consciously donned the saffron robes of Hindutva (over love and land jehad) while stridently ratcheting up his rhetoric by a few notches against the Thackeray Khandaan simultaneously. According to a BJP leader, “When Eknath Shinde was installed as CM, the BJP high command’s diktat was induction of new faces in the state council of ministers that was not done although 20 cabinet berths were filled up. The political debacle in Bihar back then saw the Modi-Shah leadership letting it slide rather than risk political instability in Maharashtra, however, repeatedly rebuffed subsequent attempts at cabinet expansion.” In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi consciously grafted the old crop BJP leadership from Maharashtra into his Union cabinet of ministers, clearing the field for the young Turks in Maharashtra following which Devendra Fadnavis became CM. Vinod Tawde, Sudhir Mungantiwar also became ministers.” Post Lok Sabha elections, young Turks including Nitesh Rane, Gopichand Padalkar, Prasad Lad, Yogesh Sagar and others from the BJP hope to find a berth in the state cabinet of ministers in the run up to the state assemblies in November 2024, unless the BJP high command holds simultaneous polls.

Countdown has begun to handle the situation arising in Mumbai with regard to the massive morcha which is entering the commercial capital of India to demand reservations for the influential Maratha caste. Lakhs of supporters under the leadership of Manoj Jarange Patil have expressed determination to secure reservation. On the other hand, Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde has once again appealed to the morcha organisers to wait for a Maratha caste census report that is being prepared now. After receiving the findings, the matter will be discussed in the state legislature in February to fulfil the assurance to grant the reservation, he has reiterated. While the morcha has been peaceful, the unprecedented response it has been receiving along the way is astounding. Thousands of bhakris and tonnes of rice and vegetables are prepared by many families voluntarily to feed the marchers. On the outskirts of Mumbai, the Agriculture Produce Market Committee has reserved its sprawling premises in Navi Mumbai by keeping its operations closed for Thursday and Friday to accommodate the gathering. Huge police deployments along the route and in Mumbai have been posted to handle the large crowds. The Republic Day celebrations all over will be taking place below the shadow of the morcha. Alarmed by the prospect of taking a slice out of its reservation quota, the OBC community has started gathering its forces to counter the Maratha show of strength. Their next move is awaited.

BJP is a worried party in Bharat today with the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, compounded with on-the-boil Maratha agitations, threatening poll prospects to better BJP’s 303 Lok Sabha tally of MPs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Solapur visit recently, ostensibly to handover 15,000 homes to bidi workers rallying under former Solapur city’s CPI MLA Narsaiah Adam Master, has deeper political purpose for Western Maharashtra. A source familiar with goings on told shortpost.in, “Maratha reservations issue is backed by every common Maratha Manoos. A Maratha DCM (Ajit Pawar) was strapped on to expand chief minister Eknath Shinde’s political reach to woo the Western Maharashtra belt that Maha Chanakya Sharad Pawar lords over.” Modi’s Solapur visit quietly endorsed his blessings for the Krishna-Bheema rivers interlinking project. The brainchild of Pawar senior’s former Maratha DCM Vijaysinh Mohite Patil was launched in 2003 to alleviate water scarcity in six districts and 31 talukas of Western Maharashtra. BJP’s Chanakya, DCM Devendra Fadnavis relaunched the flagship project a fortnight back in earnest (for completion) although (temporarily) rebranding it as the Sangli flood water stabilization (diversion) project due to ongoing legal disputes with Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh over river water utilization. Before 2019 Lok Sabha elections Modi similarly visited Malshiras in Solapur soliciting the Vijaysinh Mohite Patil family’s sway over the Baramati, Solapur, Mhada, Pandharpur Lok Sabha seats (built through blood, political relations over three generations) in Sharad Pawar’s stronghold. PM Modi’s current outreach seeks to blunt the sympathy wave for MVA, negative fallout over Maratha reservations in the ensuing general elections.

The Maratha reservation demand is likely to snowball into a major law and order issue for the Maharashtra government since lakhs of supporters of the agitation leader, Manoj Jarange Patil, have been asked to reach Mumbai in a walking march which is to begin from Saturday, 20 January. Patil has declared that an indefinite fast will start from 26 January if the demand is not met by then. Chief minister Eknath Shinde’s appeal to Patil in particular and the Maratha community in general not to agitate has not evoked much response so far. While Patil is firm on staging the protest march and fasting, the government has continued its efforts to avert any alarming situation in Mumbai or anywhere else in the state. Shinde has repeatedly assured Patil that the government is positive towards the demand and would adopt an enactment accordingly in February in the legislature. He has reiterated his promise that the reservations for other sections of society would not be affected while granting a reservation for the Maratha caste, the most influential group in Maharashtra’s politics. In response, Patil has challenged the government to present the data about delivering the caste certificates to the Marathas as belonging to the Kunbi community. If the government claims that 54 lakh such entries have been found, let it come with the statistics of actual grant of certification, he has challenged.

Even as sparring over the verdict of Maharashtra legislative assembly speaker Rahul Narvekar is raging, the Shiv Sena faction led by chief minister Eknath Shinde has gone on the offensive against the bloc led by Uddhav Thackeray. An immediate fallout could be a threat to start breach of privileges action against rival Sena leader Aaditya Thackeray and MP Sanjay Raut for their utterances against the speaker and the state legislature. In fact, Raut was the object of an inquiry for similar reasons in March 2023, too. This was after members from the ruling BJP and Sena had objected to his alleged comments wherein he had described the state legislature as “chor mandal”. Raut repeated the remarks on 10 January, immediately after Narvekar had pronounced his findings whereby MLAs from both Sena factions were spared of disqualification. Likewise, Aaditya could face action for calling Narvekar ‘shameless’ (Nirlajja) in front of channel cameras. Besides the privilege proceedings, the Shinde camp has started maintaining that as the rival faction MLAs will continue as members of the house, they will have to honour the party’s whip on the floor of the legislature. In a sharp retort, the Uddhav faction has claimed that it has been recognised as a different political party by the speaker so the whip compliance does not arise. Both sides have taken a combative stand, giving ample indications that the battle will go on in court of law as well as on the street.

The storm created by Maharashtra legislative assembly speaker Rahul Narvekar’s judgment, which has rejected demands from both sides to disqualify certain MLAs from either side, will continue in judicial forums and on ground, too. The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has summarily rejected the verdict, announcing that it will knock on the Supreme Court’s doors. The Congress and the NCP have supported Uddhav’s criticism. This situation is expected to cement the I.N.D.I.A front in the state further, accelerating the on-going talks about seat sharing for the Lok Sabha election. On the other hand, the ruling three-party alliance is feeling exhilarated as it appears certain that chief minister Eknath Shinde will continue in office till the Apex Court takes cognizance of the matter. The million dollar question is: when will it happen. Considering the functioning of the Apex Court, it will be too optimistic to expect it to take up and dispose of in a short while. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheduled visit to Maharashtra on Friday, 12 January, to inaugurate the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link project is likely to prove a game changer. The PM is likely to make some major announcement for the state, especially owing to its contribution in the celebrations planned for 22 January in Ayodhya. His comments about the present political development, hence, are awaited with baited breath by both sides.

Erstwhile Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray will emulate his social crusader grandfather Prabhodankar Thackeray, social reformer Sane Guruji and Indian constitution’s architect Dr BR Ambedkar, come January 22. He will seek blessings from Lord ‘Kala Ram’ coinciding with Bharatiya Janata Party’s installation of ‘Ram Lalla’ at Ayodhya. Thackeray received no invite to attend the Ram Mandir ceremony over severed ties with BJP but, through this political masterstroke, intends to hold sway over the 48 parliamentary constituencies in Maharashtra. Thackeray’s party smartly tied up with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) over a seat sharing formula being worked out currently and hopes to attract Dalit votes in addition to his party’s traditional vote bank. Angry Shiv Sainiks anxiously await general elections to vent their rage over alleged political betrayal by former compatriots now under CM Eknath Shinde who rebelled against the heir of the late Sena supremo even as Uddhav has smartly tapped into the Dalit vote bank. In the early 1900s Maharashtra’s social crusader Sane Guruji and subsequently, Dr Ambedkar launched crusades to allow Dalits prayer rights at the KalaRam temple. Thackeray is certain his traditional vote bank will be bolstered by the Dalit community that had even given his party (under late Balasaheb) a run for its money in its own backyard of Mumbai city in the late 1970s. Thackeray has also put the Congress and NCP allies on guard by deputing colleagues to attend I.N.D.I.A’s seat sharing meet while locally insisting on the tiger’s share in Maharashtra.

Wednesday, 10 January 2024, will be perhaps one of the most important days in Maharashtra’s history as state legislative assembly speaker Rahul Narvekar is scheduled to deliver his verdict on the disqualification petitions against chief minister Eknath Shinde and his several supporters. Narvekar has indicated that only highlights of the 500-page judgement will be read out tomorrow at 4 pm in Vidhan Bhavan and the detailed verdict will be available later. Even as suspense is building up about the fate of the three-party government in the state, Shinde and deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis have expressed confidence that the petitions will be rejected by the speaker. Shinde said he had the majority, which was the main test in a democracy. Moreover, the Election Commission had recognised his side as the ‘real’ Shiv Sena and hence he was hopeful that justice will prevail. On the other hand, Sena’s rival faction chief Uddhav Thackeray and NCP president Sharad Pawar have taken grave objections for two meetings Narvekar had with Shinde at the latter’s official residence over the past week. “It is highly suspicious that the judge is calling on the accused,” Uddhav told the media on Tuesday while Pawar felt that it would have been better if Narvekar had not met the CM in this situation. While 34 petitions have been filed in the matter, over three lakh pages of various documents had to be perused, Narvekar has revealed.

As more and more businesses, government offices and projects move to Gujarat from Maharashtra, the ruling BJP-led Eknath Shinde’s government faces much flak from the Opposition. The backlash started after the shift of the Vedanta-Foxconn project from Maharashtra in September 2022. Since then there has been much criticism of over 17 projects that have favoured Gujarat over Maharashtra. This includes Mahanand, the state government co-operatives milk brand being brought under the National Dairy Development Board, which operates from Anand, the home base of the Amul brand. This attracted criticism that unlike the governments in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka that came out strongly in support of their own local state milk brands namely Aavin and Nandini over the expansionary tactics of Amul, the Maharashtra government’s milk brand tamely let Mahanand play second fiddle to Amul. The shifting of the diamond market from Mumbai to Surat that was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too has caused much concern in Maharashtra over loss of employment, business opportunities and overall downsizing of Maharashtra’s financial significance. The latest grouse is the shift of India’s first submarine tourist project from Maharashtra’s Sindhudurg to Gujarat’s Dwarka. The increasing dominance of Gujarat in many aspects of Maharashtra evokes strong public sentiments here, has now emerged as a strong political issue that the Opposition parties are wasting no opportunity to capitalise on in this election year.

Shiv Sena scion Aaditya Thackeray threw the gauntlet at Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde over the Rs 250 tariff to traverse the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link by demanding a roll back, free ride instead. The day before Thackeray @33 years young tweeted development works started utilizing his MLA funds in Worli. Indications are clear of Aaditya assuming leadership (Maha CM) positioning for forthcoming state assemblies. A BJP leader tells shortpost.in, “Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray consciously pushed his son to hold pole position on the political racetrack even during the 2014 alliance with BJP. To Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s consternation, Aaditya turned up for meetings scheduled with his father in New Delhi. After Maharashtra’s 2019 assembly elections Thackeray senior formed the MVA alliance with NCP, Congress though Devendra Fadnavis’ promised that Aaditya as DCM would be groomed over five years to become CM of Maharashtra in 2024.” Another source revealed, “Even parleys to seal the deal with NCP for the MVA alliance nearly broke down after Uddhav proposed Aaditya’s name for CM. NCP Chief Sharad Pawar baulked, threw sheaf of papers he held in the air and then, convinced the undivided Shiv Sena Chief to take up the mantle of government.” In 2004 Balasaheb Thackeray prematurely announced free electricity for agriculturists if Shiv Sena was elected to power. Then Congress CM Sushilkumar Shinde hijacked the plan before the code of conduct was enforced and returned his party to power. Eknath Shinde may not, however, bite the bait or, will he?

The ruling alliance in Maharashtra is making intense efforts to coincide Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Nasik visit on 12 January next year with the inauguration of the massive Mumbai Trans Harbour Link project, connecting Mumbai with the mainland. Modi is scheduled to open the National Youth Festival on that day in Nasik on the occasion of the birth anniversary of Swami Vivekanand. Preparations have started for the mega event in which thousands of participants from across the country have been invited. To benefit from the slated visit in view of the coming general election, the Shinde-Fadnavis-Ajit Pawar triumvirate has decided to invite Modi for declaring open the longest sea bridge in the country, being constructed at a cost exceeding Rs 18,000 crore. In fact, it was to be commissioned on 25 December but this did not happen since some finishing touches remained. The link will prove to be of immense political importance for the ruling side since it will open new vistas of development. Similarly, the choice of Nasik for the youth fest is crucial since the city is identified with Lord Ram’s footprint and a major pilgrimage centre. Senior Maharashtra minister Girish Mahajan has been entrusted to make adequate preparations for the PM’s visit, during which some major announcements eyeing the polls are anticipated.

Is the BJP planning to ditch rebels of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena (SS) to contest solo in Maharashtra? This claim by Sharad Pawar supporter Jitendra Awhad has created a flutter and touched a raw nerve among the rebel camps of both Eknath Shinde and the Ajit Pawar. Awhad said that buoyed by the BJP’s recent victory in three North Indian states, the party’s internal surveys and deliberations with RSS had led to this strategy. Awhad also claimed that a BJP survey had found that its old cadres were getting disillusioned with it thanks to its growing proximity to tainted leaders and had wanted those to be kept away. The rebels of SS and NCP, who switched loyalties with Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are now worried about whether the BJP will accommodate their political aspirations. Not only could Shinde and Pawar find it difficult to hold their flock together, these splinter groups could also be asked to merge with the BJP. The appointments of upstarts over seasoned stalwarts for chief ministership in the three states by BJP doesn’t bode well for the likes of strong leaders like Shinde and Ajit Pawar either. The strategy of going solo works well with the larger BJP strategy to wipe out the political significance and electoral value of strong regional outfits and their symbols. Though the splinter NCP and Shiv Sena groups are aligned with the BJP, the party hasn’t forgotten the 2019 Vidhan Sabha polls when it was upstaged out of power in Maharashtra despite BJP getting the highest tally of legislators.

The Maratha reservation agitation issue has helped chief minister Eknath Shinde get one-up over his deputy and predecessor Devendra Fadnavis. Shinde’s political acumen has helped him win favour with Maratha leader Manoj Jarage Patil, who publicly proclaims that Shinde could be the only person who can make reservations for Marathas possible. Patil though reserves his ire against Fadnavis for creating unrest by ‘poisoning’ the minds of Maratha leaders and has even advised the BJP to expel him from the party and the state. Jarange is upset at Fadnavis for propping up Chhagan Bhujbal for challenging and consolidating the Other Backward Class (OBC) community against him. Jarange and Bhujbal have been involved in a bitter war of words that has stretched to personal lows. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s shift in stance that the Maratha community cannot be granted blanket reservation, has also upset Jarange, who claims that it was an assurance given to get him to withdraw from his 17-day hunger fast on the issue. Police cases against Jarange’s supporters for stone throwing against policemen, has further fuelled anger against Fadnavis, since he holds the home portfolio. While tendering his resignation, state backward class commission member BL Killarikar had claimed that Shinde was ready to conduct a large-scale survey of communities, but was opposed by Fadnavis. The Opposition believes that both the Maratha and OBC agitations are state-sponsored to divert attention from genuine issues affecting the state.

The State Backward Class Commission’s chairman Anand Nirgude’s resignation soon after two of the members had quit has armed the Opposition in Maharashtra with a hefty stick to hit at the Shinde-Fadanvis-Ajit Pawar government. The timing of the resignation is significant since the Maratha caste’s deadline for the government to take a decision on its reservation demand expires on December 24. While it is alleged that the resignations have come on account of the ruling side’s interference in the working of the commission, Nirgude himself has clarified that he has put in his papers for personal reasons. Moreover, he has declared that he will not come before the media to speak about what has happened. Immediately after the news about Nigrude leaked out, Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray demanded that the matter should be investigated through a Special Investigation Team. The two members who had resigned earlier, Balaji Killarkar and Lakshman Hake, had complained of governmental meddling. Uddhav said the names of the two MLAs who were pressurising the commission must come out. Legislative assembly’s leader of opposition Vijay Wadettiwar and Uddhav’s spokesman Sanjay Raut, too, came out strongly against the government. Senior minister Shambhuraje Desai said the reason for the resignation of Nirgude would be ascertained before making any comment.  But he has flatly denied that the government has in any manner tried any intrusion in the commission’s working.

Nationalist Congress Party founder Sharad Pawar’s silence over the political slugfest that is raging in the state is intriguing since his one-time right hand Praful Patel is now made the whipping boy to corner the three-party regime in Maharashtra by the Congress and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) after former minister Nawab Malik’s arrival in the picture. Patel had been Pawar’s emissary in Delhi over the past two decades and had represented him for resolving various ticklish political crises. Very recently, Patel had played a significant role in establishing the Uddhav government by holding talks with then Congress leader Ahmed Patel. Now he has joined the NCP faction led by state deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar. As the BJP has publicly objected to Malik’s inclusion in Ajit’s party, the past of Praful Patel is dug up to embarrass the Shinde-Fadnavis-Ajit government. The Congress and the Sena (Uddhav) have reminded the rulers that Patel had been raided by ED some time ago and have alleged his connection with infamous fugitive Iqbal Mirchi. “If Nawab is not OK, how come Patel is OK?” the barbs from the two parties have asked. While so much has been happening in the state, Sharad Pawar’s total mum regarding his former Man Friday has given rise to fresh speculation. Ajit has added to the mystery by refusing to say a word about Malik, who as well has remained mute

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar wants four Lok Sabha seats, including Shirur, Satara, Raigad, Baramati won by NCP in 2019 and hopes to get some more. Pawar wants to field son Parth from Shirur, believing he holds sway over his political karmabhoomi of western Maharashtra. Uncle Sharad Pawar issued patronising sound-bites over his nephew’s political plans seeking to undermine him. In 2014 and 2019, the BJP and Shiv Sena fought general elections in alliance but now, will battle each other even as CM Shinde’s Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP seek to adversely impact votes accruing to the (undivided) Shiv Sena and NCP respectively. In 2024, BJP, Shinde led Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP will square up against Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and Congress (that has held its flock together). BJP suggested Shinde field new candidates, since only two/three of his Sena MPs may get re-elected, citing internal surveys. Shinde emphasized his responsibility to secure the political future of his MPs and may, on the brink of elections, even ask them to contest as BJP candidates to still keep his word. Uddhav Thackeray may re-launch political touring soon. Few political pundits credited him for political acumen, making stark comparisons with Balasaheb Thackeray, though the former chief minister of Maharashtra got 63 Shiv Sena MLAs elected in 2014 after BJP severed political ties. His late father had publicly lamented his party’s inability to cross the 60 MLAs benchmark in Maharashtra.

With general elections few months away, Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has rejigged his strategy that will see him increasing his public appearances. For now, he has declared that he will be visiting Palghar district outside Mumbai soon, admitting that he had not paid attention to the area which had elected his candidate to the Lok Sabha in 2019. Uddhav has been constantly criticised for not venturing out Matoshree, his family residence located in suburban Bandra. The criticism was sharp when he was the chief minister for over two years. “You have not visited Mantralaya even two and a half times,” his arch detractor Narayan Rane would say over and over again. Besides undertaking a few trips within the state and except for attending a couple of I.N.D.I.A meetings, Uddhav has stayed mostly in Mumbai and in Matoshree in particular. But it seems he will now become more active by appearing in public. Another possible reason for his aggressive posture could be the frequent media interactions his cousin Raj Thackeray has been enjoying, the latest regarding his victory on the issue of displaying Marathi boards in Mumbai by commercial establishments. Uddhav felt particularly aggrieved as some posters describing chief minister Eknath Shinde as “Hindu Hriday Samrat,” came up a couple of days ago. As the title was bestowed upon Balasaheb Thackeray Uddhav said, “The saboteurs will be taught a fitting lesson by the people in the coming election.”

An under-the-weather Maharashtra deputy chief minister (DCM), Ajit Pawar, worked out of home for a fortnight sparking speculation again over his imminent ascension as CM. The alternative political music piped down Friday after Pawar attended the cabinet meeting at the state secretariat — Mantralaya, however, refusing to die down since the Maratha strongman met up with Union Home Minister Amit Shah, adding further grist to rumour mills. The reality may be a mix of both narratives. Maharashtra’s finance minister Pawar may be miffed over his decisions needing to pass muster (ratification) from DCM Devendra Fadnavis’ office first, followed by the CMO thereafter. This is unlike his tenure in the erstwhile MVA government when he enjoyed free reign, even inviting accusations from then alliance partners for allegedly monopolising fund allocations to suit his (undivided NCP) party’s interests. A leadership change in the state may not be imminent unless the Apex Court decides the legal challenge seeking to disqualify 16 MLAs with CM Eknath Shinde. Pawar’s storm-in-a-teacup may have to do with extracting his pound of flesh including allocation of cabinet portfolios, state development corporations for his NCP faction that bolsters the current government. In his previous DCM avatar under Fadnavis as CM, lasting a mere 70 odd hours in November 2019, Pawar brought closure on 20 odd irrigation department cases registered against him. “Though 20 cases were wound up back then, around 100 more remain active that prompted PM Narendra Modi’s “Rs 70,000 crore corruption” comment against NCP,” a source reveals.

Senior minister Chhagan Bhujbal’s attack against the Maratha caste reservation demand and his various utterances against the government of which he himself is a member have created a piquant situation in Maharashtra. His own party, the Nationalist Congress party (NCP), has disowned his stand against the Maratha caste to which the party leader Ajit Pawar belongs. On the other hand, various Maratha leaders have started demanding his removal from the Shinde-Fadnavis-Pawar ministry. In retaliation, OBC leaders irrespective of party affiliations have started uniting under Bhujbal’s stewardship. Both sides have hardened their respective stands. While the Maratha leaders are firm that their caste must be granted reservations, OBC leaders have made it clear that no slice from their quota to the Marathas would be permitted under any circumstances. Though Maharashtra’s prominent leaders take pride in describing the state as the most progressive in India, casteism was always present though not as articulated as now. Rallies by leaders of both sides have been evoking tremendous response, sending warning signals in view of the volatile situation. The approaching general election next year will be definitely affected by the reservation imbroglio. Curiously, the Centre has maintained silence over the burning issue, fearing that any stand taken by it would have repercussions in other states like Rajasthan and Haryana where similar demands have been pending for a long time. Hence, the developing situation in Maharashtra is watched keenly by the political stakeholders.

Caste dissensions in Maharashtra are becoming sharper over the Maratha demand for reservations as two ministers in the state are under pressure to lead active protest demonstrations to oppose any curtailment in the OBC quota of reservations. Various political parties have adopted a cautious approach towards the thorny issue as taking any stand either way will prove costly in the coming elections, they fear. The conflict is likely to assume wider proportions after Diwali. Followers of senior ministers Chhagan Bhujbal and Dhananjay Munde, both ardent proponents of the OBC cause, are planning to vent their opposition to the Maratha consolidation by holding a rally in Jalna soon. The present Maratha agitation for the reservations had begun in a village a little away from this town in Marathwada. The situation in the state is intriguing as the state’s Leader of the Opposition, Vijay Wadettiwar, has come out openly in support of the OBCs and articulated his staunch opposition to the Maratha quota demand. Surprisingly, the Congress party to which he belongs has not taken any stand on the social conflagration so far. Various top leaders of different shades have started saying that a Maratha reservation should be durable and pass the test of the Supreme Court judgments in this regard. As this position is contrary to the Maratha demand, the atmosphere in Maharashtra after Diwali will test the acumen of the leadership.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde extended service hours of the twin Metro lines (2A, 7) to 11 pm daily for Mumbai’s western suburban commuters’ convenience. Shinde was on perpetual poll mode since becoming CM in 2022, with an agenda to blunt political negativity over erstwhile Maha Vikas Aghadi, led by his former boss Uddhav Thackeray, being ejected from power. The current Maha boss had a clear brief to launch a blitzkrieg of project announcements, big and small, to launch 500 public welfare schemes before polls. After BJP severed political ties (for good) with Uddhav Thackeray, it leveraged Shinde’s grass roots work culture and recently, added NCP leader Ajit Pawar’s political dynamism to counter the groundswell of disenchantment among citizens. Shinde’s efforts are yielding political returns by carving a positive image for his (breakaway) government in Maharashtra where self-body elections to 27 municipalities were kept on hold to tide over negative public sentiment. A BJP leader tells shortpost.in, “Things are looking up now in the 48 Lok Sabha seats from Maharashtra. ‘Worker’ Shinde, backed by ‘Chanakya’ Fadnavis and ‘Dynamic’ (Ajit) Pawar are expected to ensure negative results turn positive in the forthcoming polls. BJP’s fail-safe to ensure Lok Sabha victory is projection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s face under which elections will be fought in Maharashtra, just like in Rajasthan.” Understandably, the ‘Maha Chanakya’ from Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar, is leaving no stone unturned to counter BJP’s strategy of wait-and-watch by precipitating protests over ‘Maratha’ reservations to never-before-seen levels

His resounding victory in the local body elections has brought Ajit Pawar to the centre stage of Maharashtra politics. Two days after Ajit Pawar announced that he would be inaccessible due to dengue, he flummoxed all by holding back to back meetings with Nationalist Congress Party founder Sharad Pawar in Pune and Union home minister Amit Shah at New Delhi the same day. The deputy CM, who has made no bones about his chief ministerial ambitions, is expected to claim his pound of flesh from the BJP having proved his electoral mettle after branching out independently from his uncle’s party. Speculations about change of guard in Maharashtra have also gained currency thanks to talk of Eknath Shinde government set to fall by December 31 as predicted by leaders like Uddhav Thackeray. That is the deadline set by the Supreme Court to decide on disqualification of legislators of the Ekanth Shinde-led Shiv Sena faction. Claims of independent legislator Ravi Rana that Ajit Pawar is trying to convince his uncle to throw in his weight behind the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has only muddied waters further. There had been much talk that the BJP had promised Ajit Pawar the CM’s chair only if he could get his uncle into the BJP alliance. The junior Pawar has been upset at his powers being clipped by the chief minister who reportedly has directed all finance department files to be sent to him. He was also upset at his supporters not being accommodated in ministerial berths and corporations.

The three-party coalition ruling in Maharashtra has humbled the NCP founder Sharad Pawar and Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray in the just declared results for the Gram Panchayats in the state. The BJP has emerged as the single largest winner in the public mandate which was tested for the first time after the change of guard last year. Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde and the two deputy chief ministers, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, have welcomed the outcome with claims that the ruling alliance will win 45 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 elections. Initial reports suggest that out of 2359 Gram Panchayat bodies, the ruling side has won 1354, with the BJP bagging over 743, Shinde’s Sena getting over 240 and Ajit Pawar’s faction 371.  On the other hand, the NCP under Sharad Pawar has been able to win 178 bodies while Uddhav’s Sena has come last with 102 victories. The overall perception that the electorate will reject those defecting from the main party has been belied, especially since Ajit’s faction has emerged invincible in Pune district’s politics, which was dominated for decades by his uncle Sharad Pawar. This performance will have a direct impact on the seat sharing between the two sides and since the so-called I.N.D.I.A front has fared poorly. 

Maharashtra’s Eknath Shinde government has come in for much flak as the traders from the $ 23 billion big diamond business have started shifting base from Mumbai to Surat Diamond Bourse (SDB). The new diamond market at Surat has attracted attention for indulging in some aggressive marketing, even leveraging their political clout, to coerce Mumbai’s diamond traders to shift there. Even before its scheduled inauguration on December 17, at the hands of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Mumbai diamond traders were lured with major incentives if they completely shut their shop in Mumbai. All this has not gone well with the Opposition parties in Maharashtra, who view this as part of a conspiracy from the Centre to reduce financial clout of Mumbai and Maharashtra. Maharashtra is already upset at the missed opportunities of Foxconn, Tata Airbus and the bulk drug park projects that moved to Gujarat over Maharashtra. The clear push for industries towards Gujarat over Maharashtra may upset BJP’s dream of wresting 40 out of the 48 Parliamentary seats from Maharashtra. Already, there is much consternation in the ruling alliance as some surveys show that public support is weakening for the BJP despite splitting the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Not surprisingly, the chief minister got the industries minister into damage control mode, who announced India’s biggest diamond cluster hub at Navi Mumbai within a year.

Public figures are frequently made to face embarrassment as their pictures with controversial individuals standing next to them are later published. Their defence that they can’t know everybody in a crowd coming near them is valid, though mostly unbelieved by the general public. The latest such leader is embattled Maharashtra’s chief minister Eknath Shinde, who has been finding himself in a tight spot for the presence of infamous youtuber Elvish Yadav at his official residence during the 10-day Ganesh festival along with other celebrities. Barely recovering from the aftermath of an agitation to demand reservations for the Maratha caste, Shinde will be required to come out with his response to the tirade launched against him by the Opposition over Yadav’s presence at his house. Several videos of Yadav performing aarti at the CM’s home on September 25 have been made viral by leaders of the Opposition the moment the news of Yadav’s arrest landed on social media. Leader of Opposition in the assembly, Vijay Wadettiwar of the Congress, led the attack and was supported by Shiv Sena (Uddhav)  and NCP (Sharad Pawar) functionaries. Sena’s Sushma Andhare mounted an offensive by demanding to know how someone accused of making drugs from snake venom had reached the CM’s bungalow. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, too, had to face some unpleasant moments when his picture with a questionable Nagpur politician was circulated by his detractors.

Alarmed by the spreading violence over the Maratha reservation demand, various political parties in Maharashtra have found it prudent to jointly issue an appeal to the general public to maintain law and order. In their joint statement, they condemned the acts of arson and rasta roko that have been taking place in some parts of the state. A meeting convened by chief minister Eknath Shinde on Wednesday (Nov 1) was attended by veteran leader Sharad Pawar, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) faction and various political party leaders. The agitation over the reservation demand has taken an ugly turn since Beed MLA Sandeep Kshirsagar’s house was set afire even when several family members were inside. Deputy chief minister (DCM) Ajit Pawar’s staunch supporter Prakash Solanke’s house too was attacked by an unruly mob. In several villages, politicians of all shades have been banned entry. In view of the developing situation, the state government has made preparations to deploy police bandobast outside the residences of prominent OBC leaders since the community is opposed to granting any Maratha reservation from its quota. Those supporting Maratha reservation have alleged that the ruling coalition is trying to drive a wedge between the two sections by taking such a step. The police have filed several criminal cases against the arsonists and violence-spreaders. At least half a dozen cases will be under IPC Section 307, attempt to murder, according to DCM Devendra Fadnavis.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s two loyalist MPs have resigned over the Maratha reservation demand that has engulfed the state in an orgy of violence. Shiv Sena (Shinde) Lok Sabha members from Nashik and Hingoli, Hemant Godse and Hemant Patil, have thus supported the long-pending reservation demand proactively. While Patil submitted his resignation to the Lok Sabha secretariat in New Delhi on Monday (Oct 30), Godse has sent his resignation letter to Shinde. Patil drafted his resignation letter on the spot and handed it over to the agitators when he was accosted by Maratha agitators in Yavatmal, challenging him to state his stand on the reservation demand. Soon after the news became viral, Patil was belittled by many of his detractors, including NCP chief Sharad Pawar’s daughter and fellow MP Supriya Sule. She termed Patil’s resignation as a mere stunt. In retort, Patil said, “I am not born in a family whose two or even three generations are in power.” He regretted that although several leaders from the Maratha community became Maharashtra chief ministers, the caste didn’t get anything. Likewise, Godse drafted his resignation letter in Nashik when Maratha demonstrators asked him to clarify his stand on the burning issue. Patil was recently in the news when he had forced the dean of the government hospital in Nanded to clean toilets after the MP visited it following 24 deaths in 24 hours.

Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde sits pretty over rumours of being replaced by deputy chief minister (DCM) Ajit Pawar for three months and now, his other DCM Devendra Fadnavis. Shinde, the blue-eyed-boy of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is unlikely to be replaced till poll bells sound, unless the Supreme Court disqualifies him. BJP’s ‘X’ handle reiterated Fadnavis’ second coming as Maha CM, before hurriedly deleting the post. A BJP leader told shortpost.in, “PM Modi likes Shinde’s efforts as a grass roots worker, reiterated during the Covid pandemic (in erstwhile MVA government) when he contracted the nCov twice. Modi loves Shinde and only a few months back the entire Shinde’s clan (four generations) met PM Modi in Delhi. Earlier, under CM Fadnavis his diligent work during the Kerala floods of 2018 caught the PM’s eye.” He reveals that Shinde is in Modi’s good books for elevation as Union Minister with elections in Maharashtra projecting DCM Fadnavis. Sources say Shinde’s MP son Dr Shrikant is being groomed as Maha DCM in the next state government. When Pawar recently joined the government Shinde’s Sena did not lose many portfolios like Fadnavis led BJP did, due to the 50:50 share of power agreement. Pawar’s political pound of flesh recently (guardianship of Pune and other districts), saw BJP’s Chandrakant Dada Patil losing out his Pune turf. Modi’s new political template using ‘report card’ assessments was to the detriment of BJP leaders while rewarding staunch NDA allies like Shinde, who may face disqualification but still come out a winner.

A virtual war of attrition between the powerful Maratha caste and the Other Backward Class (OBC) population over the former’s demand for reservations is raging in Maharashtra, with both sides unwilling to budge from their firm positions. Suggestions that a share of the OBC reservations should be allotted to the Marathas has been vehemently rejected by National OBC Federation president Babanrao Taywade. On the other hand, his proposal that both sides should prevail upon the Centre to do away with the 50% reservation ceiling has been spurned by firebrand Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil, who has resumed his indefinite fast unto death. Patil had granted time to the state government to announce reservations for Marathas by the end of 24 October. As this did not happen, he restarted his fast, which he had suspended earlier following a firm assurance by chief minister Eknath Shinde that the reservation would be granted for the Marathas. Shinde and deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis have airdashed to Delhi to discuss the matter with the BJP leadership. Their unscheduled visit became a topic of political speculation since another deputy chief minister, Ajit Pawar, was not asked to accompany them. He feigned ignorance about this crucial visit. The explosive issue is expected to gain traction again in view of the impending general election next year.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar, former Maharashtra chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and his successor Eknath Shinde as well as embittered BJP leader Pankaja Munde are scheduled to address public rallies on 24 October on the occasion of Dussehra, which is considered the ‘Seemollanghan’ (crossing the frontier) moment in India. As the Lok Sabha and then the state assembly election are slated to take place in 2024, these rallies will prove to be a watershed development in Maharashtra politics. While the Shiv Sena has been holding Dussehra rallies for decades, Pawar will be addressing a Dussehra rally for the first time in his political career of over half a century. The rally to be held in Pune will be keenly watched as the second city of the state is a stronghold of Ajit Pawar, who has left his uncle’s side. After that sensational event, how Pawar outlines his future moves will determine the course of many political decisions in the state. In Mumbai, both Sena factions will have their separate rallies. While Uddhav will address his followers from the centrally located Shivaji Park, the traditional Sena venue, the man who displaced him, Eknath Shinde, will hold his rally at Azad Maidan in south Mumbai, which has witnessed many landmark events during the freedom struggle. Pankaja will exhale much fury but not expected to precipitate decision.

There was a plan to eliminate the present Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde, who could survive only because he decided to walk out of the united Shiv Sena, one of his confidants has alleged. The charge has been refuted by the supporters of then chief minister Uddhav Thackeray. Buldhana MLA Sanjay Gaikwad, who followed Shinde out of the Sena last year, said he was making this statement with utmost responsibility. An indirect endorsement of the serious charge has been made by cabinet minister Shambhuraje Desai, who also left the Sena along with Shinde. According to Gaikwad, the threat to Shinde’s life emanated from the Naxalites when he was guardian minister of the tribal Gadchiroli district. It was recommended in view of the perception that Shinde should be provided with Z-Plus security. A file was prepared following this and sent to Uddhav for his signature as it was the CM’s prerogative to sanction the cover. Desai, who was a minister of state for home under Uddhav, said he repeatedly tried to follow up the matter but never heard from the CM office. Gaikwad did not name Uddhav or any individual but said a telephone call had been received from Matoshri for holding up the file when a meeting was underway at Desai’s residence to discuss the matter. Gaikwad said the plan was to engineer Shinde’s murder by making him vulnerable to the Naxals.