Will Bollywood actor Akshay Kumar or Rajiv Bhatia as he is known be fielded by the BJP from Delhi’s Chandni Chowk  Lok Sabha seat?  Well there is a strong buzz that the actor who grew up in Old Delhi could be fielded from the Delhi seat more so since the AAP and the Congress have decided to contest 2024 seats in an alliance. The AAP has already announced four candidates for Delhi. Chandni Chowk is going to be fought by the Congress. The AAP-Congress alliance will certainly impact the BJP’s approach to candidate selection in Delhi since the contest is now bipolar and not three-cornered as it was in 2019. It is believed the BJP, which won all seven parliamentary seats of the national capital in 2014 and 2019, may field the actor. Speculations about Akshay entering the election fray gained strength ahead of BJP’s Central Election Committee meeting on February 29 which is expected to clear about 150 names. Akshay may be replacing former Union minister Dr Harsh Vardhan who won the Chandni Chowk seat twice in 2014 and 2019. Almost preparing for public life, the actor had acquired Indian citizenship, giving up his Canadian passport last year. Posing alongside the snapshot of his citizenship certificate, 56-year-old Akshay had conveyed his emotions, stating, “Dil aur citizenship, dono Hindustani. Happy Independence Day! Jai Hind!”.

Nothing spooked AIADMK more than a recent weekly magazine survey which showed that the BJP had stolen the salience over other Opposition parties in Tamil Nadu and was headed to a larger vote share than the grand old party of MGR-Jaya. Insiders were busy arguing over what was going wrong in the Edappadi K Palaniswami-led party. Naturally, the blame was shifted to the leader for his inability to form an alliance that alone guarantees some success in vote share in the complicated Dravidian politics. There is no doubt that the national BJP, taking baby steps in TN with a reshuffle that found a leader in K Annamalai who has become a well-recognised face in the state, moved up in the party’s reckoning with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s contribution by way of referring often to the state’s Tamil literary luminaries also sizeable. The Lok Sabha polls will throw light on how far the party has come in difficult terrain, but there is no doubt that the Ram temple opening has moved a lot of people of faith into the party’s corner. Meanwhile the AIADMK, struggling to find allies, was picking on the PMK and DMDK not having decided yet on where they will go to offer them a number of seats closer to their expectations. All may not be lost yet for the AIADMK front, but the writing is on the wall that the BJP may be stealing a march in Dravidian turf.

The AAP and the Congress are set to jointly contest from Delhi, Haryana, Goa,  Chandigarh and Gujarat.  As per the pact, AAP will contest four of the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, two of the 26 seats in Gujarat, and one of the 10 seats in Haryana, while the Congress will contest the rest of the seats in these states. In Gujarat, the AAP will contest two – Bharuch and Bhavnagar – and in Haryana, it will contest the Kurukshetra seat. Late Congress leader Ahmed Patel’s children — Faisal and Mumtaz — have opposed giving away their home turf Bharuch to AAP. Incidentally the Congress tie-up with AAP comes full circle nearly a decade after the party first came to power in Delhi riding an anti-Congress wave in 2013. Kejriwal with 28 MLAs was propped by the Congress with its 8 MLAs. It is clear that Kejriwal, who had tasted a tough fight during MCD polls to take control of the Delhi civic body in December 2022 is not keen for a repeat in May 2024. He had boasted about limiting BJP to 20 seats in the 250 member MCD. The BJP went on to notch a cool 104. “It is clear both the Opposition parties are too scared to face the Modi juggernaut alone,” said a BJP poll strategist. It also shows that by joining hands with the Congress, Kejriwal has shelved his PM ambitions for now. It is not Kejriwal alone who has seen his limitations. Congress stalwart in Haryana Bhupinder Hooda also knows there is no way he can beat the BJP bulwark in Lok Sabha. By pitting AAP in Kurukshetra — a seat held by state BJP chief — Hooda has tossed an unwinnable seat in AAP’s lap and got an alibi for poor show in 2024.

Who is behind the farmers’ agitation near Delhi? The two Punjab-Haryana border points – Khanauri and Shambhu – have been the epicentre of the clashes as police personnel fired tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannons to disperse the farmers trying to march to Delhi. Farmers have rejected a government offer on MSP for five crops and crop diversifications to save the water table. The basic aim of the protesting farmers is not to secure a MSP for all the 23 crops that they produce– they want a law guaranteeing MSP. Such a law farmers argue will ensure that market prices will not go below the MSP. It is also possible that it could force the government to buy farm produce that is not picked up by the market. The thrust of the protests organised by AAP and the Congress is to take the sheen out of PM Modi’s popularity and continue the protest till the April-May Lok Sabha elections. The game is to pull Modi down politically. In this game, while AAP in Punjab is trying to project itself as “friend of the farmers”, with its chief minister Bhagwant Mann playing mediator in the Centre-farmer talks, the Congress, which rejected Swaminathan Committee report in 2006, has also lent support to the farmers’ demands. Punjab urgently needs sustainable agricultural practices. But AAP and Congress are intent on backing the agitation to downsize Modi.

It was an abuse that shocked everyone in UP and Delhi. Rahul Gandhi who hollered away in Amethi about drunkenness and dancing in Varanasi and had also stretched his aversion for Hindu rituals by deriding those chanting Jai Shri Ram. That too at a time when Ram Mandir at Ayodhya has been drawing huge crowds – upwards of 50 lakh devotees within a month’s since its inauguration. So it was expected that the Gandhi scion would be appropriately trashed. And that’s what happened.  PM Modi, who reached Varanasi on a two-day visit, panned Rahul for hurling a pejorative ”nashedi “at Varanasi youth — young men of his Lok Sabha constituency from where he plans to contest for a third term. So it was a protective Modi who came to the fore. “They spent the decade abusing Modi. But now they are taking out their frustration on the people. “Jinke aapne hosh thhikane nahi hai, wo UP ke, mere kashi ke bachcho ko nashedi keh rahe hai,” he said. Strongly condemning Rahul Gandhi’s comment, Modi said “A person who belongs to a dynasty is always threatened by the common youth force. And now they have another reason to not like Uttar Pradesh after Ram Mandir’s inauguration. They do not like the new face of Kashi and Ayodhya. I did not know Congress had so much hatred towards Lord Ram. They can’t see or think beyond their family and vote bank”. He also made it clear that the SP-Congress alliance would make no impact. It is an alliance where they come together before every election and then abuse each other after they get ‘nil battey sannata’.

The entry of one ex-chief minister Ashok Chavan into the BJP fold seems to have landed another ex-CM, Narayan Rane on a sticky wicket. It has upset Rane’s plan to take the easier option of taking the Rajya Sabha route to Parliament. Instead, he is now forced to contest for Lok Sabha elections from the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg constituency, from where his elder son Nilesh Rane lost twice in a row in 2014 and 2019 to Uddhav Sena’s Vinayak Raut. Raut has now developed a strong local base and presents a formidable challenge here. The Rane’s continue to share bitter relations with the Uddhav’s Sena. Elder son, Nilesh Rane recently, issued threats to Uddhav’s legislator Bhaskar Jadhav from the dais of a public rally following a riotous situation between warring party workers with stone pelting leading and police lathi-charging and tear gases being used. Also, the Uddhav Sena faction has not forgiven Rane for his rebellion in 2005 and is gunning to defeat him. Rane, who is a party hopper, having moved on from the Shiv Sena to the Congress before joining the BJP with his two sons, is facing competition for his ticket from his own alliance partners. His constituency is being eyed by Eknath Shinde supporter, industries minister Uday Samant for his brother Kiran Samant, who has already started campaigning there. The Konkan belt had always been a Shiv Sena stronghold which the BJP is keen to get Rane to spearhead its party into the region.  

BJP’s 2019 ‘Political Decade Policy’ empowering cadre, gen-next portends ill for more famous leaders two tenures old and over 75 years old. Brahmin Medha Kulkarni, RSS ‘Karsevak’ Ajit Gopchade secured Rajya Sabha nominations since Kulkarni relinquished her Pune assembly seat for Chandrakant Patil in 2019, while Gopchade’s prominence rose after 1992 Babri mosque demolition. BJP spokesperson Atul Shah says, “Mega party BJP always emphasises generation next and is always widening our political horizon. While Maratha leader (newbie) Ashok Chavan secured Rajya Sabha, two BJP workers got nominations too.” Maharashtra BJP Executive Committee member Mahendra Jain notes, “Kulkarni sacrificed her Pune constituency so, her RS nomination satiates Pune’s Brahmin community. Clear political message is that famous leaders may not take their Lok Sabha candidatures for granted.” BJP’s policy saw Union Minister Narendra Singh Tomar moved to Madhya Pradesh assembly as speaker earlier. Union minister Parshottam Rupala may not get Lok Sabha seat to set right Gujarat caste dynamics, unreasonable pressure from Patels. Rajnath Singh (73) may still secure candidature, Shivrajsingh Chauhan asked to prove election mettle after being sidelined for MP CM ship just like Vasundhara Raje. Narayan Rane is unlikely over health issues although his son may be fielded. Similarly, Chandrakant Dada Patil and Pankaja Munde may lose out. “No decision till now on holding simultaneous polls for Maha assemblies with general polls but, PM Modi who keeps plans close to chest, may still spring a surprise.” BJP will contest 28/30 Maharashtra parliamentary seats itself while also fielding candidates from Eknath Shinde’s party (like Milind Deora got Rajya Sabha). Shinde won’t seek many parliamentary seats, lacking worthy winning candidates,” the source added. Will Vinod Tawde be BJP’s Konkan face in ensuing polls?

The idyllic village of Sandeshkhali in West Bengal has been in the news recently due to demonstrations by several women who claim that Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Shajahan Sheikh and his associates had grabbed their land and sexually assaulted several. Shajahan notoriety came to the fore following his followers attacking Enforcement Directorate officers who had gone to raid his property on January 5 in connection to a ration scam. With Lok Sabha Elections around the corner, Opposition leaders claim they were denied permission to visit Sandeshkhali in North 24 Parganas district, later getting permission from the court. However, TMC supremo and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee refuted these accusations blaming the BJP and RSS by terming it as a sinister design at play. Didi even promised to send her officials to clear the dues of the locals and set up special police teams to address any criminal issues. Incidentally, Sandeshkhali falls under Basirhat Lok Sabha seat which is predominantly a Muslim belt and Nusrat Jahan is the outgoing MP. It may be recalled that Mamata gained maximum votes from women through her pro-women policies and benefits. Political analysts are citing this as a massive personal betrayal along with a political controversy. This is all because Didi’s image as the supporter of the oppressed and women is fundamentally threatened by this controversy. Many also view that Shahjahan’s arrest can open up a can of worms and lead to an anti-Didi movement just like the Nandigram and Singur which overthrew the Left-led government.

The farmers’ stir 2.0, has flummoxed Prime Minister Narendra Modi who withdrew his three farm bills (under protest) following the last uprising by agriculturists in 2021, who refused to settle unless he backtracked. Modi expressed disappointment back then that the triple laws, aimed at doubling agriculturists’ revenues by migrating agricultural produce to open market rates over minimum support price (MSP) valuations, had to be withdrawn. A senior BJP leader tells shortpost.in, “Please consider the ironic fact that the price of wheat was Rs 570 when the three revolutionary farm laws were withdrawn over political orchestrations and large scale violence. Subsequently prices of wheat skyrocketed to over Rs 1000 in 2022, in the wake of the Ukraine war. Migration to market valuations based on demand and supply and open market rates would literally have made Indian farmers richer, almost doubly. But Indian agriculturists lost out on the opportunity thanks to the anti CAA Shaheen Baug protests, followed by farmers 1.0 amplified nationally, politically.” The BJP leader added that the Ukraine conflict saw demand for wheat grow manifold and it was India that stepped in to fill the global void in the Gulf region, Ukraine, Russia, Afghanistan and other markets impacted by wheat scarcity. Ongoing news media narratives over 2.0 protests scaling up and demanding MSP for 23 foodgrains, on pain of unleashing anarchy once again, fail to factor in the lost commercial value that farmers suffered after 1.0 and will likely hurt farmers doubly once again.

The rumours are flying thick and fast about the future of Biju Janata Dal’s (BJD) four term Lok Sabha MP Pinaki Misra. The MP from Puri since 2009 has been seen as the political face of Naveen Patnaik in Delhi. Misra, a successful senior advocate in the Supreme Court was accused by the Odisha BJP unit a few months ago for helping Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra in the cash-for-query controversy. And BJP has conveyed its displeasure to Patnaik. Also, Misra who had defeated BJP’s Sambit Patra in 2019 from Puri constituency by a slender margin, is in no mood to fight a direct election. He was hoping for a Rajya Sabha nomination but that did not happen. Instead Patnaik nominated BJD’s Debashis Samantaray, Subhashish Khuntia and BJP’s Ashwini Vaishnaw, Union minister for Railways. Sources within BJD say that erstwhile student leader Arun Kumar Sahoo, MLA from Nayagarh may be given Puri ticket. Puri residents say they want a full time MP who will look into their concerns and challenges of everyday life and not an occasional visitor politician.

Former Congress leader Acharya Pramod Krishnam who was recently expelled from the Congress for six years for praising PM Narendra Modi for the Ayodhya Ram temple consecration ceremony and criticising  party leadership for skipping the event, was honoured by PM Modi as he launched his Kalki Dham Temple in Sambhal, UP. Krishnam, believed to be close to Priyanka Vadra had been pushing for the Hindu cause in the Congress. He had done so at the 2022 Udaipur Chintan Shivir but was outshouted by party leaders from Kerala. Recalling his recent interaction with Krishnam, Modi said that he had known him only as a political personality but recently came to know about his 18-year old struggle to build the temple. PM Modi used Krishnam’s stated inability to offer him anything to take a jibe at the recent Supreme Court on electoral bonds. He said “Today, If Sudama gave rice to Krishna, the Supreme Court would dub it as corruption. Acharya Pramod ji, it is good that you did not give me anything. In today’s era, if Sudama would give rice to Shri Krishna, a PIL would be filed in the SC and the judgment would come that something was given to Lord Krishna in corruption”. Why did PM Modi give so much time and attention to Krishnam? Well, in its quest for winning all the seats in UP, the BJP is not sparing any effort. Besides the Kalki temple, Krishnam is of political value too; he had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Lucknow on a Congress ticket but lost. He, however, garnered an impressive 1.8 lakh votes. In 2014, he unsuccessfully contested the Lok Sabha elections from UP’s Sambhal — a SP stronghold.

Though NCP founder Sharad Pawar’s right hand Jayant Patil has discounted any possibility of crossing over to the BJP, there are few believers to trust him as his bonhomie with the saffron party has been a matter of speculation in Maharashtra for a long time. When the NCP split in 2021 and Pawar’s nephew Ajit teamed up with the BJP as well as the Shiv Sena faction led by Eknath Shinde, those remaining loyal to the veteran leader included Jayant Patil, who once was the state’s home as well as finance minister. In fact, his supporters started projecting him as a future CM of Maharashtra when the murmurs about Ajit’s restlessness were heard in NCP circles before the split. Though Patil downplayed this image building exercise, his ambition has not remained a secret. A highly qualified politician, Patil has kept himself away from any scandal all these years. In spite of the efforts to sully his name by his detractors, Patil had managed to keep himself above any acrimony, meekly accepting Ajit’s hegemony in the united NCP. However, since the split, Patil has emerged as the unofficial spokesman of the faction, in the belief that he speaks out Pawar’s mind. But the shock administered by former CM Ashok Chavan is too fresh in the public mind to take Patil on face value. Patil and Supriya Sule have vehemently refuted the possibility of him joining the BJP. However, even his own party workers feel that ‘wait and watch’ is the only option available to them before taking any decision about their own future.

Two of Bollywoods beautiful and talented actors, Yami Gautam Dhar and Priyamani are unravelling the story of Article 370, which is set to hit screens on February 23.  The talk about this film, directed by Aditya Suhas Jambhale, is hard to ignore, even as comparisons with The Kashmir Files, Kerala Story and Emergency fly thick and fast. It is the timing of its release that has set expectations high and may be controversial. With the election machinery already rolling in full force, a powerful medium like cinema focusing on the abrogation of Article 370 is bound to land with a sonic thud. For honing its propaganda skills in multiple ways, the BJP is often complimented for its talent to use social media and its communication bag of tricks. But what the Dravidian cavalry taught about using cinema as the quickest, and most effective touchpoint with the electorate is a many layered case study. Tamil Nadu chief ministers M Karunanidhi and MGR used this powerful medium to totally transform an electorate under the spell of Sanskritised ideology. The Dravidian evolution is parallel to its cinematic evolution as an ideal propaganda machine. But it must be said that these two powerful leaders did not stir up religious clashes. Producer Aditya Dhar at the press meet when questioned about the timing of his film as it helps the BJP said, “To win the elections, we don’t need films like mine. The Ram Mandir took shape after a 100 years’ wait. It is now a fait accompli”.

The exit of former CM Ashok Chavan from the Congress party just on the eve of Rajya Sabha elections and the buzz about his imminent switch to the BJP along with some MLAs has stunned party circles in Delhi. It has also led to a delay in the release of Rajya Sabha list for probable contests across the states. What Chavan’s exit has done is that it has diminished the prospect of bagging at least one RS seat from the state. “Neither Abhishek Singhvi nor Raghuram Rajan wanted to be from Maharashtra,” revealed a Congress leader. Before Chavan’s exit, the Congress had prided itself in the fact that with 44 MLAs, it was the single largest party among the Opposition parties. All that could soon become history if more legislators troop out of the party to help BJP clinch a minimum of 3 to 4 MPs and the NDA about 5 of the 6 vacancies from the state. Party sources said the AICC was anticipating Chavan to move out because of legal proceedings in the Adarsh housing case. The BJP surely did not need Ashokrao as it had convincingly wrested Nanded Lok Sabha seat from him in 2019. So what was the big idea? Congress sources feel Ashokrao’s grip on Nanded zilla parishad has made him a formidable leader. As a Maratha leader from Marathwada, Ashokrao could be an asset to the BJP. Yet it remains to be seen if he would be immediately accommodated in the RS. After all  Doon-school educated  RPN Singh, a Kurmi leader had waited patiently for two years to get a RS seat from UP. 

Shooting incidents in Maharashtra have brought the Maharashtra government under fire and raised a chorus for the resignation of home minister Devendra Fadnavis. The killing of close aide of Uddhav Thackeray, Abhishek Ghosalkar during a Facebook live as also the shooting in a Ulhasnagar police station by a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) legislator have raised questions of the law and order situation in the state. Parallels are being drawn with Bihar and the Eknath Shinde-led Mahayuti government has come under fire especially from Uddhav Thackeray’s firebrand Sanjay Raut who has demanded implementation of President’s rule in the state. Raut has also been vocal against his bete noire chief minister Eknath Shinde for ‘goonda raj’ and ‘mafia raj’ in Maharashtra. He supported his claims by releasing pictures of gangsters along with Shinde at the state secretariat. The Uddhav faction of the Sena, which is under fire from various agencies, has upped the ante against Shinde and Fadnavis, who it believes are leading the charge to poach their legislators with threats of cases and other means to get them into the ruling alliance. A BJP internal survey in Maharashtra has been unflattering for the party; hence the overdrive to poach political support from other parties. These rising incidents of violence needs to be viewed from the lens of the escalating political tensions amidst the coerced realignments resulting in bitter local equations in the run-up to the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections the political temperature in Odisha is rising with possible alliance talks going on between various political parties. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s who was in Odisha recently at a public gathering called Naveen ji as “mitra” openly and this seems to have embarrassed the local BJP unit. It is public knowledge that both Modi and Patnaik have great equations. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi who just finished his last leg of Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra campaigning in Odisha seems to be upset with the BJP-BJD informal alliance. With a view to energize Odisha’s Congress cadres, Rahul has cautioned Odia people saying Odisha is a partnership government of Naveen Patnaik and Narendra Modi wherein Patnaik is helping Modi in Delhi, while Modi helps Naveen in Odisha. Adding further he said that if BJP comes to power even Navratna NALCO will be sold off to private players. Former bureaucrat VK Pandian, Patnaik’s right hand man acknowledged through podcast that lot of things have been ironed out between BJP and BJD saying that Patnaik has it made clear long ago that BJD will have constructive cooperation with the Centre reiterating that the chief minister is not here to fight BJP or Congress. What is important according to Pandian is “covering Odisha’s interest”. For BJP it has no option but a tactical alliance considering the fact Patnaik’s popularity continues to rise and BJP overall has not been able to penetrate the state save for Western Odisha.

Electoral alliance plans are evolving fast, even as party doors are kept revolving.  So when the Home Minister Amit Shah in his interview to ‘Daily Thanthi’ said, “Our doors are open for anyone to come and join us”.  D Jayakumar, AIADMK heavyweight reacted, “BJP doors may be open, but we have shut the doors for BJP, put a big lock too”. Perhaps defying him, 15 former AIADMK legislators and former MP walked in to the BJP, and were given a warm welcome by BJP president JP Nadda, Union ministers Rajeev Chandrasekhar, L Murugan and Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai. With so many AIADMK leaders crossing over to BJP where was AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS)? EPS it is learnt had just worshipped at the Bhadra Kaali Amman temple when the media encircled him to get his views. His bland response was “I have not seen the newspapers this morning. I can clarify only after reading the news”. Was EPS trying hard to save his face? Or was he really unaware of his brood’s cross over? Even as a former Congress leader’s  son, well respected and considered a quiet achiever was said to be negotiating a truce and face saving retreat, things were playing out without a script. The modus operandi advised by brokering political strategists ….”Sap bhi mare aur lathi bhi na toote”.

In his last ‘Motion of Thanks’ reply to President Droupadi Murmu’s address to the Parliament, PM Narendra Modi exuded super confidence about returning to office for a third term with at least 370 seats for the BJP and 400 seats for the NDA. He taunted the Opposition for losing “the courage to contest elections”. In an obvious reference to Congress leader Sonia Gandhi’s plans to shift to the Rajya Sabha, Modi said “Some seats were changed last time too…I have also heard that many people now want to go to Rajya Sabha instead of Lok Sabha.” Sonia Gandhi walked out half way through his speech. He asserted that the “third term of our government is not very far now. Only 100-125 days remain to go.” Modi promised that India would become the third-largest economic power in the world in his third term and expressed confidence that his next term would see some “very big decisions”. Modi was in form as he took the Congress to the cleaners for not finding its mojo in its decade in the Opposition and attacked it for squandering its time in launching-relaunching the same product — a veiled reference to Rahul Gandhi. Quoting a 1959 speech of Jawaharlal Nehru, Modi showed how the first PM felt that the “Indians were lazy”. Showcasing his own government’s work of building 4 crore houses for the poor, Modi said if his government were to work at the speed of Congress “it would have taken 100 years to do this work. Five generations would have passed by then.”

BJP Kalyan (East) MLA Ganpat Gaikwad, who fired several bullets at his arch enemies inside a police station, has made several sensational allegations against Maharashtra’s chief minister Eknath Shinde and his son Shrikant, MP. The matter is likely to snowball into a major political storm as this is the first incident of its kind in Maharashtra. According to Gaikwad, a property dispute at Ulhasnagar near Kalyan was at the root of the shocking incident. He has alleged that the father-son duo had been fostering goondaism in the area. Gaikwad has been representing the Kalyan (East) constituency for nearly two decades, becoming a thorn in the side of the Shinde faction. The critically injured Mahesh Gaikwad and Rahul Patil are said to be staunch followers of Shinde and Shrikant. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who handles the home department, however, has become the whipping boy for the Opposition. NCP MP Supriya Sule and state Congress president Nana Patole led the demand brigade seeking Fadnavis’ resignation immediately after the news of the firing spread like wildfire. On the other hand, OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal (Ajit Pawar faction) has ridiculed the demand asking “Did Fadnavis ask the MLA to fire?” A home minister would have to resign a hundred times a day if he is demanded to quit after each criminal incident. But Sharad Pawar has remarked that the incident shows in which direction the state is moving.

For once Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge must be happy with the kind of impact his Rajya Sabha speech is making. For reasons best known to him, he used a BJP campaign tagline and got the ruling party to make it go viral. Kharge’s remarks that the BJP would be getting “abki paar, 400 paar” — video clip — was posted on BJP’s X handle. It was all the attention that he could ask for. Since he spoke in motion of thanks to the President’s address, PM Narendra Modi was present in the House. In his speech, Kharge was heard saying, “You have a majority, with 330-334 seats. This time it will be above 400,” evoking laughter from the PM and all senior ministers. Kharge’s remarks indicated that he had come a long way since the time he had complained about how I.N.D.I.A bloc CMs like Mamata Banerjee or Nitish Kumar before he joined the NDA were not taking his calls. The BJP could not have been more happy that Kharge, a Dalit leader of the Congress from Karnataka, had endorsed a big win for the party. The Congress leader’s clip with an imaginary header from PM Modi “I need new haters, the old ones have become my fans” was naturally on its social media post. Meanwhile, aiming to surpass its 2019 performance of 303 seats, the party recently launched its campaign theme song “Sapne Nahi Haqeeqat Bunte Hai, Tabhi Toh Sab Modi Ko Chunte Hain (we do not spin dreams, but weave reality, which is why people choose Modi)”.

With the general elections a few months away, the political temperature in Odisha seems to be rising. Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with senior BJP leaders will be visiting  Sambalpur on February 3. Political watchers interpret  Modi’s Sambalpur visit  to create “hawa and mahol” of election mood, apart from launching news projects worth Rs 69000-crore. Besides inaugurating IIM-Sambalpur, Modi is also endorsing Dharmendra Pradhan who will be contesting the Lok Sabha election from Sambalpur constituency. Even though PM Modi and Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik are good friends, yet Modi is leaving no stones unturned to ensure a big win for BJP. Energized by BJP’s recent win in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, the general thinking among BJP leaders in Odisha is, “If North East and Chattisgarh could be won by BJP, why not Odisha ”? Poll pundits say Biju Janata Dal’s (BJD) immense penetration at Panchayat and booth levels will ensure its eventual victory.  BJP does not have alternative programmes at the state level that can challenge BJD seriously. Surprisingly, BJP’s constant accusation of BJD’s corruption has neither dented Patnaik’s image nor decreased his party’s popularity. The general feeling among people of Odisha is that Naveen babu has delivered.

While Tamil Nadu was agog with the excitement of Vijay stepping into politics to keep up a film star tradition, the older parties may be putting on their thinking caps to see what effect this will have on the polity. Of course, Vijay’s party will be a player only in the 2026 Assembly elections. TN parties are now busy pulling out their calculators for forging alliances. It is all but confirmed that the PMK — led by founder S Ramadoss and son Anbumani — one of the first as a caste party to gain prominence in the avowed “casteless’ Dravidian society, will go with the BJP’s offer of seven seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Having toyed with joining DMK, the Vanniyar party has few options but to go with BJP as it cannot mix with a front in which the VCK, another caste outfit, is an ally. It appears senior AIADMK leaders have told Eddapadi K Palanswami not to entertain the PMK. Besides the PMK, the BJP front might have the DMDK in its fold as Premalatha might throw in her lot with Modi’s party as her late husband Vijayakanth was a great fan of the Prime Minister and canvassed for him and his party from 2014 onwards. Tamil Maanila Congress, without a great vote share or presence, is yet to make its choice clear. The three-way battle will be on with the DMK-Congress-MDMK-VCK combine against the BJP- front while AIADMK will go in without any major allies.

The adept handling of the Manoj Jarange Patil-led Maratha agitation not only consolidates the position of chief minister Eknath Shinde but also marks the emergence of Shinde as the dark horse of Maharashtra politics. Shinde, who himself is a Maratha, could also benefit electorally from the politically strong Maratha vote bank, that has been the mainstay of the Pawars — both uncle Sharad and his nephew Ajit — as also the Congress. By successfully containing the agitation on the outskirts of Mumbai, the CM now finds himself one-up over his deputies, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar, both of whom nurse ambitions to upstage him. And the backlash is already showing up. Fadnavis has already clarified that police cases will continue against arsonists who indulged in violence against policemen specifying that only courts were authorised to withdraw cases. Shinde had promised withdrawal of all police cases against Maratha activists. Fadnavis supporter advocate Gunaratne Sadavarte has also threatened to challenge the government reservation order in the courts. Chhagan Bhujbal from the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP has also criticised the draft notification from Shinde government terming the reservation as an eyewash that will not stand up to legal scrutiny. The agitation has successfully helped divert attention from Shinde and his team of 39 legislators being called as ‘traitors’ by Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena that kept Shinde on the defensive and threatened his electoral stakes. The agitation also helped divert attention from the negative effect of breaking two popular political parties — Shiv Sena and NCP for the BJP.

It was the ninth time that Nitish Kumar was sworn in as Bihar CM on January 28 evening with the support of the BJP. He has been backed by the BJP six times as CM. It may be recalled that Nitish had walked out of the NDA Government in Bihar in August 2022 to form the Mahagatbandhan Government along with the RJD and the Congress. He had then charged the BJP of engineering a split in his party, Janata Dal (United). He had won the state assembly elections along with the BJP in 2020. Then what made the BJP accept him back? Why has the BJP with 79 MLAs acquiesced to backing Nitish on his terms? Only that he doesn’t get Sushil Modi as deputy CM. The BJP got two deputy CMs — an OBC and a forward caste leader. Before re-admitting Nitish, the BJP central leadership did hold wide consultations with its allies before taking a view on his return. BJP sources said it was the horror of the return of jungle raj with the elevation of Tejashwi Yadav as deputy CM. In fact Nitish himself was experiencing the rough side of the RJD; he was under pressure to hand over power to the RJD leader by Holi. “We did not want Bihar to slip into jungle raj like Bengal,” said a BJP leader. Nitish has seen what going alone in Lok Sabha elections had cost him. In 2014, Nitish got two seats and lost deposits in 36 seats. In 2019, when he fought along with the BJP, he got 16 seats. He used the opportunity of Bharat Ratna for his mentor Karpoori Thakur to get out of RJD stranglehold.

The political age for young Turks is being reemphasized in Maharashtra again with pole positioning currently underway for suitable appointments to the state council of ministers once general elections conclude in April 2024. Union Minister for micro, small and medium enterprises Narayan Rane’s MLA son Nitesh Rane has consciously donned the saffron robes of Hindutva (over love and land jehad) while stridently ratcheting up his rhetoric by a few notches against the Thackeray Khandaan simultaneously. According to a BJP leader, “When Eknath Shinde was installed as CM, the BJP high command’s diktat was induction of new faces in the state council of ministers that was not done although 20 cabinet berths were filled up. The political debacle in Bihar back then saw the Modi-Shah leadership letting it slide rather than risk political instability in Maharashtra, however, repeatedly rebuffed subsequent attempts at cabinet expansion.” In 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi consciously grafted the old crop BJP leadership from Maharashtra into his Union cabinet of ministers, clearing the field for the young Turks in Maharashtra following which Devendra Fadnavis became CM. Vinod Tawde, Sudhir Mungantiwar also became ministers.” Post Lok Sabha elections, young Turks including Nitesh Rane, Gopichand Padalkar, Prasad Lad, Yogesh Sagar and others from the BJP hope to find a berth in the state cabinet of ministers in the run up to the state assemblies in November 2024, unless the BJP high command holds simultaneous polls.

So what is driving out leaders like Milind Deora out of the Congress in Maharashtra? Lack of popular mandate? Or short shrift from Rahul Gandhi and his team? Possibly loss of access to Rahul Gandhi. In fact many of Rahul’s close aides were surprised that when Deora exited there were reports that he had no access to Rahul and was actually seeking to reach him through an appointment via Jairam Ramesh. But then, Milind is not alone. It is being said senior Maharashtra leaders like former Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, former CM  Prithviraj Chavan have also been getting a raw deal from the former Congress President. Neither Shinde nor Chavan have been able to meet Rahul in the past few years. Reportedly, BJP had reached out to Shinde to switch sides and are also tapping his daughter Praniti Shinde, Maharashtra PCC working president.  When the Congress came to know of the BJP’s overtures to the father-daughter duo, it got into damage control mode. While efforts were made to molly-coddle senior Shinde, the AICC ensured Praniti was aboard the special aircraft that carried leaders from Delhi to Imphal to launch Nyay Yatra. Though BJP leaders have denied reaching out to Shinde, Congress sources feel Praniti is being eyed as a fresh face for   Solapur Lok Sabha seat. If Shinde joins BJP it would bring closure to controversy over his remarks on Hindu terror that he had made at Congress’ Chintan Shivir in Jaipur in 2013 that RSS and BJP were running terror camps.

Udhayanidhi Stalin is upset with his father? Perhaps, yes! Udhayanidhi who was expected to be elevated as Deputy CM did not turn up at the residence of his father to take his blessings on Pongal on January 15. Because his father, DMK President and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister on January 13 dismissed ‘rumours,’ speculations that his son is being made deputy CM. Stalin also asserted he is healthy. Such rumours were being spread by those opposed to the January 21 DMK Youth Wing Conference in Salem, to be held under its chief Udhayanidhi, Stalin said. At a time when youth across the state were getting ready for the Salem conference, those engaged in rumour-mongering “spread false information about my health,” he said in a Pongal greetings message. “I am healthy and cheerful. I am working, working, working,” the 70-year-old leader added. Interestingly, the news of the elevation of Udhayanidhi was apparently leaked to the media from quarters close to Stalin’s family. But other power centres in Stalin’s family apparently told him to delay his elevation — because it won’t go down well before voters ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. Also it will give a handle to the opposition, particularly the BJP, to reiterate that the DMK, like the Congress, is plagued by dynastic politics. So Stalin decided to put it off till the Lok Sabha elections? Perhaps, say insiders. As a preparatory step before his elevation, Udhayanidhi even met Modi on January 4 to ostensibly invite him to Chennai for the Khelo India Games in what he described as a “courtesy call.”

With BJP making every effort to topple his government, the Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik, like a grandmaster, is always several moves ahead. But, unfortunately for him, his health care plan — considered a masterstroke — may not give him the expected political mileage, if the registration deadline of January 16, 2024 is not extended. An average Odia is not too familiar with online registration to avail of cashless free treatment for critical ailments at the private hospitals. The healthcare scheme branded as BSKY Nabin Card is facing too many technical glitches as a result people have to literally go from pillar to post to fill in their forms. Sometimes the ‘Add Family member’ button stops working, and the interface ‘freezes’ after adding two members. Sources say there is a gap in the awareness drive and competency level to address glitches both at schools, panchayats, SHG and social media level. Fed up with repeated technical glitches and short deadlines many people in sheer frustration have given up on BSKY Nabin cards. There is a chorus to extend the registration deadline date. Is the Patnaik government listening?

The BJP, which is yet to open its account in Kerala, is eyeing the state’s cultural capital, Thrissur to deliver its first Member of Parliament. The electorate of Kerala’s cultural capital, Thrissur, which has amidst it the Vadakkuumnathan Shiva Temple and the World famous Guruvayur Krishna Temple, is being wooed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, himself. After holding an impressive road show at Thrissur on January 3, 2024, Modi is returning to Thrissur on January 16, this time in the garb of attending the marriage of film star – Suresh Gopi’s daughter at Guruvayur Temple. Gopi, a former Rajya Sabha member, was the BJP candidate from Thrissur in the 2019 elections where he came third behind the UDF and LDF. The only silver-lining in the election was the BJP vote share increasing from 11.5 % in 2014 to 28.2 % in 2019. The increased vote share plus the constituency’s demographics — 58% Hindus, 24 % Christians and 17 % Muslims — has made the Thrissur seat BJP’s best bet. Also, BJP’s Christian outreach programme which seems to have received a favourable response in Kerala despite the issues in Manipur, has spurred BJP and Modi to have a second road show in neighbouring Kochi, the commercial capital of Kerala on January 17.  After assembly election losses in Karnataka, Telangana and losing their Tamil Nadu partner, AIADMK, BJP is pulling out all the stops to woo the South Indian electorate.

Walking the same path of the CPI(M) and Trinamool Congress (TMC), Bengal BJP, has created a new cell, ‘Cultural Promotion’ within the Election Management Committee to promote its ideologies and visions. It may be noted that CPI(M)’s Indian People’s Theatre Association (IPTA), the cultural wing, has always been used in election campaigns. Ditto TMC. Incidentally, BJP’s Cultural Promotional Wing will be having two divisions namely ‘Loksanskrit Dal’ and ‘Path Natak’ to be handled by actors Papiya Adhikary and Rudranil Ghosh respectively. Papiya’s association with films and commercial theatres (jatras) will be catering to BJP’s needs. Moreover her dance group ‘Mukti’ mainly stages programmes which will help BJP to spread its political messages. However, Papiya refused to give any details about the arrangement but admitted to having been present during the recent BJP’s election management committee meeting. Even Rudranil unwilling to speak about the development, but is learnt that he directed the theme song that the state BJP made ahead of Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s meeting in Kolkata. BJP sources said that this time, the BJP wants him to set up small street drama groups all over the state and stage dramas as part of Lok Sabha election campaign. It may be recalled that both Papiya and Rudranil joined the BJP before the last assembly elections where Papiya contested from Uluberia South in Howrah and Rudranil from Bhabanipur constituency in Kolkata, which neither could win.

AIADMK staying away from the BJP for the Lok Sabha polls is part of a master strategy worked out by the party’s head honcho Edappadi K Palaniswami and Amit Shah. The secret pact, arrived at as a Tamil-English interpreter from Karnataka was the only other person present at the one-on-one meet, was to enable the taking away of minority votes from the DMK by presenting an alternative in an independent AIADMK that is back to where J Jayalalithaa had kept it. There is no doubt that the DMK has suffered quite a few image hits recently, with the first conviction of a minister for graft and another sitting in jail as a minister without portfolio. The heavy rains of the monsoon in 9 districts around Chennai and the extreme south also led to undermining of the ruling party’s dominant political stature. So much so, there is an opinion shared by some Congressmen that it is time the party broke its DMK ties and accepted more seats that the AIADMK would offer it. One of those who is leading this campaign is currently being disciplined for suggesting PM Modi is more popular than the party’s scion Rahul Gandhi. DMK is planning on cutting the Congress seats down to just six to give itself a better chance to get the number of seats that would give it much bargaining power in any post-poll scenario.

Speculations are rife that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Odisha possibly in the third week of January, just before the Ram Lala consecration ceremony. BJP sources say senior leaders like JP Nadda and Amit Shah will be accompanying the PM. However, the PMO is yet to make a formal announcement of the PM’s scheduled visit. Modi visited Odisha last year to take stock of the worst train accident in Balasore. This time speculation is, Modi is visiting Berhampur as part of election agenda. He may address gatherings at Gopalpur, sources say. Why is the PM visiting Odisha? Sources say Modi is determined to correct the bonhomie image of him and chief minister Naveen Patnaik. He is keen that BJP make inroads in Odisha and its possible only if he takes Patnaik head on at his home turf Ganjam. Also, it has been proved that the BJP’s state unit on its own is not in a position to give tough fight to well entrenched BJD juggernaut. Opposition BJP chief whip Pavan Majhi in the Odisha Assembly said “Our focus is on increasing the party’s strength and forming the government in Odisha.” For BJP ruling Odisha has been a pipe dream, except western Odisha they have little penetration elsewhere. The state’s five time CM Patnaik remains confident that he will continue to remain in the driver’s seat.

As more and more businesses, government offices and projects move to Gujarat from Maharashtra, the ruling BJP-led Eknath Shinde’s government faces much flak from the Opposition. The backlash started after the shift of the Vedanta-Foxconn project from Maharashtra in September 2022. Since then there has been much criticism of over 17 projects that have favoured Gujarat over Maharashtra. This includes Mahanand, the state government co-operatives milk brand being brought under the National Dairy Development Board, which operates from Anand, the home base of the Amul brand. This attracted criticism that unlike the governments in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka that came out strongly in support of their own local state milk brands namely Aavin and Nandini over the expansionary tactics of Amul, the Maharashtra government’s milk brand tamely let Mahanand play second fiddle to Amul. The shifting of the diamond market from Mumbai to Surat that was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too has caused much concern in Maharashtra over loss of employment, business opportunities and overall downsizing of Maharashtra’s financial significance. The latest grouse is the shift of India’s first submarine tourist project from Maharashtra’s Sindhudurg to Gujarat’s Dwarka. The increasing dominance of Gujarat in many aspects of Maharashtra evokes strong public sentiments here, has now emerged as a strong political issue that the Opposition parties are wasting no opportunity to capitalise on in this election year.

The Tiruchirappalli state visit of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the airport inaugural did not go well for Tamil Nadu chief minister MK Stalin, who came back to Chennai with eye watering and irritation. His planned opening of the very popular annual Chennai Book Fair was cancelled, even as Udhayanidhi Stalin and minister for education Anbil Mahesh were deputed to take his place. Stalin was headed straight to a well-known Vision Institute for an eye check-up. But this eye problem seemed much less severe to the CM when compared to his mood that had turned visibly irritated at the PM’s event. Just when Stalin started his welcome speech, an excited Mexican Wave with “Modi, Modi” rented the air and Stalin was literally speechless. The PM had to signal for quiet during Stalin’s speech…naturally, the turn of events irritated him. But this kind of rally call is not new to him; just in April, when Modi had come to Chennai with Union minister L Murugan, the DMK cadres meted out the same crowd call….”Stalin, Stalin”, and minister Murugan could not continue his address. Had Modi finally dented the seemingly unconquerable Dravidian Aura? A survey by the DMK top guns revealed that a large section of the front rows were filled with BJP followers who reached the venue by 7 am while DMK cadres trooped in by 8.30 am. This after DMK senior minister KN Nehru and others were tasked with collecting big crowds. Looks like BJP paid DMK with the same coin.

Amid growing differences between the senior bloc and the new bloc of state BJP and several lobbies of the top functionaries of the Bengal unit, the Central BJP unit has decided to work with a private political consulting agency for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Jarvis Technology & Strategy Consulting has been appointed to counter ruling Trinamool Congress’ political strategist the Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC), created by Prashant Kishor. Party sources said that there won’t be any conflicts in the functioning of the agency and the BJP state unit. While the party’s state leadership will handle political campaigns and grassroots outreach initiatives, the agency will carry out on-the-ground and backup research to provide information to the state leadership which can enable political tactics for the state unit. Interestingly, State BJP president, Sukanta Majumdar hasn’t acknowledged or refuted the development, though asserting that election strategies are private and internal affairs. Meanwhile, party insiders said that as per initial plans, the consulting agency will operate not only from Kolkata but will set up camp offices in different districts of the state as well. Incidentally, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and National President JP Nadda who recently visited Kolkata made it categorical to the state unit that they will have to frame their strategies and policies to target 35 LS seat-win in 2024. Further, they must intensify social media campaigns from now on.

AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palanisami (EPS) seems to have got his calculations all wrong when he broke away from the NDA to Lone Ranger status for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Was it an act of bravado or was his defiance based on ego problems with the BJP? Incidentally, EPS did not attract that overwhelming response from small political parties that cannot face an election alone, but add up to respectable strength as allies. The only party (quite unknown), Puratchi Bharatham led by Poovai Jagannathan has allied with AIADMK. Even as his cadres were focusing on flood relief work in Southern districts, EPS had to attend a “conclave“ of this unknown party in Villupuram. The veteran, better known parties and power stakeholders like PMK and Vijayakanth’s Themu Thika are not making haste to join AIADMK-led coalition. His cadres are lamenting, “What seat sharing with one party”? Are both the breakaways regretting the break-up? According to some sources, the BJP is now firmly in the saddle after the three states election wins. The talk is that the BJP high command have zeroed in on Tamil Manila Congress leader GK Vasan to bring about a face saving rapport. Vasan is perceived as a calm pacifist, capable of convincing stubborn sides and like his late father GK Mooppanar bring prickly issues to the deal making table.

Is the BJP planning to ditch rebels of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Shiv Sena (SS) to contest solo in Maharashtra? This claim by Sharad Pawar supporter Jitendra Awhad has created a flutter and touched a raw nerve among the rebel camps of both Eknath Shinde and the Ajit Pawar. Awhad said that buoyed by the BJP’s recent victory in three North Indian states, the party’s internal surveys and deliberations with RSS had led to this strategy. Awhad also claimed that a BJP survey had found that its old cadres were getting disillusioned with it thanks to its growing proximity to tainted leaders and had wanted those to be kept away. The rebels of SS and NCP, who switched loyalties with Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are now worried about whether the BJP will accommodate their political aspirations. Not only could Shinde and Pawar find it difficult to hold their flock together, these splinter groups could also be asked to merge with the BJP. The appointments of upstarts over seasoned stalwarts for chief ministership in the three states by BJP doesn’t bode well for the likes of strong leaders like Shinde and Ajit Pawar either. The strategy of going solo works well with the larger BJP strategy to wipe out the political significance and electoral value of strong regional outfits and their symbols. Though the splinter NCP and Shiv Sena groups are aligned with the BJP, the party hasn’t forgotten the 2019 Vidhan Sabha polls when it was upstaged out of power in Maharashtra despite BJP getting the highest tally of legislators.

Is Maharashtra heading for simultaneous polls of its state assembly coinciding with general elections of Bharat? Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent statements emphasizing “One nation, one poll” compounded with a dismal political picture painted by internal surveys by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) indicate exactly such a prospect. A well-placed source says, “Results of recent assembly elections in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh enthused BJP tremendously as state level anti-incumbency was effectively neutralized by Modi’s persona bringing rich political dividends even in MP where Congress was dead sure of a win. A similar political situation exists in Maharashtra, where the Shinde led Shiv Sena faction (40 MLAs plus 10 independents), even Ajit Pawar’s NCP grouping may not perform well in the next state assembly elections after the current government’s tenure ends in November 2024. The party was mulling over simultaneous polls for over a year now.” Even the BJP retaining its 2019 figure of 105 MLAs in Maharashtra, that came down from 122 MLAs in the 2014 state assemblies, was a deciding factor. The Prime Minister is also a votary of the two (national) party system of democracy as prevalent in the USA. The I.N.D.I.A coalition of opposition political formations under a single umbrella in 2023 is viewed by the BJP as a step in this direction. The party feels public disenchantment with their current three-party alliance government in Maharashtra can be simply countered by projecting Modi’s face for the twin polls being held simultaneously. Will I.N.D.I.A stay together?

In a major blow to the organisers of the ‘Ek Lokho Konthe Gita Path’ (Gita Chant in Lakh Voices) event, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reportedly not attending the Brigade Parade Ground event in Kolkata on December 24 because of a government programme. PM Modi was supposed to recite the Gita with Shankaracharya Sadanand Saraswati. Besides Modi not attending, the organiser has yet to get confirmation from the Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath. In a show of strength for the past three months, Bengal BJP went ahead with the plan keeping PM Modi at the forefront. It is learnt that not only the Sanatanis but also BJP workers and functionaries are hugely disappointed with this development. Meanwhile, Assembly Opposition Leader Suvendu Adhikari and BJP State President Sukanta Majumdar convened an emergency meeting after being informed by the PMO about the PM’s absence. Party sources said that frustration is evident among the workers as the city has witnessed extensive displays of banners and posters featuring the Prime Minister announcing his presence at the programme. It is also learnt that around 3,500 sants (sadhus) will be coming for the event and over 55,000 Bengali translations and 34,000 Hindi copies of the Bhagavad Gita have been sold in the last 10 days.

The Maratha reservation agitation issue has helped chief minister Eknath Shinde get one-up over his deputy and predecessor Devendra Fadnavis. Shinde’s political acumen has helped him win favour with Maratha leader Manoj Jarage Patil, who publicly proclaims that Shinde could be the only person who can make reservations for Marathas possible. Patil though reserves his ire against Fadnavis for creating unrest by ‘poisoning’ the minds of Maratha leaders and has even advised the BJP to expel him from the party and the state. Jarange is upset at Fadnavis for propping up Chhagan Bhujbal for challenging and consolidating the Other Backward Class (OBC) community against him. Jarange and Bhujbal have been involved in a bitter war of words that has stretched to personal lows. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s shift in stance that the Maratha community cannot be granted blanket reservation, has also upset Jarange, who claims that it was an assurance given to get him to withdraw from his 17-day hunger fast on the issue. Police cases against Jarange’s supporters for stone throwing against policemen, has further fuelled anger against Fadnavis, since he holds the home portfolio. While tendering his resignation, state backward class commission member BL Killarikar had claimed that Shinde was ready to conduct a large-scale survey of communities, but was opposed by Fadnavis. The Opposition believes that both the Maratha and OBC agitations are state-sponsored to divert attention from genuine issues affecting the state.

The Union government’s sudden move to permit the use of sugarcane juice and B-heavy molasses for ethanol production with a ceiling of 17 lakh tonnes for the current marketing year has hardly surprised sugar barons in Maharashtra and Karnataka since these two major states are the ruling BJP’s strongholds. Together, they produce around 60% of India’s total sugar output. Though Karnataka has voted against the BJP in recent assembly elections, the party is preparing to storm the state for the upcoming Lok Sabha election. The same logic applies to Maharashtra. Veteran leader Sharad Pawar’s power base is dependent upon the massive sugar lobby, which now is fractured. Its one section has followed his nephew Ajit Pawar, who has now joined the Shinde-Fadnavis government and started praising PM Narendra Modi as well home minister Amit Shah. Immediately after the Centre’s decision about the ethanol production restriction was announced, there was a wave of anger in Maharashtra. The Opposition cornered the state government and Ajit Pawar had to assure the legislature that he would visit Delhi to plead with the Centre to reconsider the decision. Now that it has happened, the Opposition ranks have been re-planning their strategy. The victorious three-party government, on the other hand, will exploit the political benefit of the revised decision. The Centre’s reassurance that there will be adequate sugar availability in the country in the months to come will assuage the sentiments of the middle class, too, it is felt.

Having stood by expelled Trinamool Congress MP Mahua Moitra has left both Pradesh Congress and CPI (M) in a dilemma. In Bengal the party workers from both Cong and CPI (M) have questioned the stand as Trinamool is their rival and feels that the State BJP would be encashing the move. Significantly, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee has announced that Mahua will again contest from Krishnanagar seat. According to Pradesh Congress sources, having supported Mahua, will any Opposition candidates have a chance of winning? Moreover, the anti-BJP and minority votes are expected to go in favor of Mahua. It is further added that the party workers are skeptical of how to establish “setting” theory between Trinamool and BJP as claimed by Pradesh Congress President Adhir Chowdhury and CPI (M) State Secretary Mohammad Salim. A section of Congress and CPI (M) leaders feel that this will be giving Opposition leader Suvendu Adhikari an upper hand of establishing his claim of Congress-CPI(M) being the B-team of Trinamool. However, Adhir has made it clear that support to Mahua since the beginning was similar to that of Rahul Gandhi where both were targeted for voicing against Adani, which is no way connected to opposing a corrupt Trinamool government in Bengal. Similarly, Salim, CPI(M) Rajya Sabha MP Bikash Ranjan Bhattacharya and State member Sujan Chakraborty said that protesting against Mahua’s expulsion was because it was arbitrary, however, the party to continue its protest against both BJP and TMC in Bengal

In a much anticipated move, the BJP picked up a tribal leader and former Union Minister Vishnu Deo Sai as its new chief minister of Chhattisgarh. BJP leader and Union Minister Renuka Singh Saruta, who was in the race described Sai’s selection as “for the first time a party worker from the tribal community belonging to a farmer’s family has been elected”. She underscored the fact that Sai had won the recently concluded assembly polls from Kunkuri in north Chhattisgarh, a region that the BJP had swept picking up all the 14 seats in the region. It was in this region that the BJP managed to defeat the Congress including its deputy chief minister TS Singhdeo from Ambikapur by 94 votes. In the run up to the elections, home minister Amit Shah while addressing a meeting in Sai’s constituency had already indicated that he would get an important assignment if he was elected. Besides, Sai became a natural choice as he is considered close to former CM Raman Singh. Having been a prominent figure in the BJP, Sai has held various positions as he hails from the influential Sahu (Teli) community which has a sizable presence in the Durg, Raipur and Bilaspur divisions. He served as BJP State President from 2020 until 2022. And has also worked with PM Modi in his first cabinet. In fact after being appointed, all that Sai had to say was “I will work to fulfil ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’. Congress leaders conceded that they could never have a tribal CM in the state after late Ajit Jogi — the state’s first CM –got ruled out as an ST in 2019.

After being sidelined since her defeat at the hands of her own cousin Dhanajay Munde in 2019, Pankaja Munde’s political career is steering back into active mode within the BJP, thanks to a sharp consolidation of the OBC vote bank in Maharashtra. The ongoing Maratha agitation to demand reservation under the OBC category, has upset the OBC’s in the state, who have thrown their political weight behind the leadership of Chhagan Bhujbal. Though Bhujbal is currently with the Ajit Pawar faction of NCP, he is fighting the OBC agitation under his own outfit Samata Parishad. Pankaja, who hails from Vanjari caste, commands strong support from the OBC community especially in the Marathwada region, a legacy she inherits from her late father Gopinath Munde, who was responsible for getting the OBC votes for the BJP. Pankaja is now back in the reckoning within the BJP to woo the OBC votes. Her party had earlier refused to let her participate in the joint OBC rally called by Bhujbal at Nashik, deputing others instead. But, shifting equations in state caste politics led Devendra Fadnavis, who blamed her for downswing within BJP, to get the cousins — Pankaja and Dhananjay — to bury the hatchet and work together. A BJP internal survey showing slip in support for BJP among the OBC’s also worked in her favour. It is learnt that the BJP is considering fielding her for Lok Sabha and adjusting her MP sister Preetam Munde in state council.

Former Maharashtra minister Nawab Malik continues to be the focal point of Maharashtra politics. Released by court on bail while facing charges like indulging in anti-national activities, Malik’s arrival in Nagpur where the state legislature is in session has kicked off a virtual storm. Unfazed, he spent some time in the legislative assembly for the second consecutive day. The BJP’s opposition to his inclusion in the NCP’s Ajit Pawar faction has been backed by chief minister Eknath Shinde. Thereafter, top NCP leader Praful Patel joined the flurry of activity as the issue continued to reverberate in the second capital of Maharashtra. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has demanded that Malik should not be accepted by the Ajit faction in view of the serious charges against him. Ajit’s close associate Dilip Walse Patil has expressed his party’s unhappiness over the Fadnavis letter reaching the media. To douse the heat, Patel met Fadnavis and made it clear that no political talks have been held with Malik. On the other hand, Malik called on Ajit. Firebrand leader Chhagan Bhujbal, too, joined the discussion. Ajit had announced that he will decide his stand on this issue only after meeting Malik. Hence, attention is now focused on Ajit’s next step as it will determine the direction of the state polity, which is buffeted by caste-based demands for reservations over the past month.

Looks like the Congress has still not come to terms with the results of the Hindi heartland with a section of the party blaming it squarely on the EVMs. In fact the party seemed so split on the issue that former MP Digvijay Singh claimed that “any machine with a chip” could be hacked; he even ignored the fact that the Congress had won Telangana and Karnataka through EVMs. Kamal Nath complained that some candidates did not even get 50 votes in their villages. It is not clear if the Congress leaders actually started believing in the media hype they were winning the four state assembly polls. In contrast, Karti Chidambaram, Lok Sabha MP from Tamil Nadu, came out completely endorsing the EVMs. Digvijay Singh admitted that he had been opposing EVMs ever since they were introduced in the 2003 assembly elections under the Supreme Court orders. The EVMs were first used in 2004 Lok Sabha polls which had brought UPA-1 to power. With the BJP winning 163 seats in the 230-member assembly in MP, Singh appealed to SC and EC to save “democracy”. Of course, if he had only seen the kind of work and effort BJP leadership had put in his state — 40 lakh karyakartas working through the year reaching out to   64,000 polling booths to reach 51 % vote share as part of Amit Shah’s strategy.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar wants four Lok Sabha seats, including Shirur, Satara, Raigad, Baramati won by NCP in 2019 and hopes to get some more. Pawar wants to field son Parth from Shirur, believing he holds sway over his political karmabhoomi of western Maharashtra. Uncle Sharad Pawar issued patronising sound-bites over his nephew’s political plans seeking to undermine him. In 2014 and 2019, the BJP and Shiv Sena fought general elections in alliance but now, will battle each other even as CM Shinde’s Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP seek to adversely impact votes accruing to the (undivided) Shiv Sena and NCP respectively. In 2024, BJP, Shinde led Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP will square up against Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar and Congress (that has held its flock together). BJP suggested Shinde field new candidates, since only two/three of his Sena MPs may get re-elected, citing internal surveys. Shinde emphasized his responsibility to secure the political future of his MPs and may, on the brink of elections, even ask them to contest as BJP candidates to still keep his word. Uddhav Thackeray may re-launch political touring soon. Few political pundits credited him for political acumen, making stark comparisons with Balasaheb Thackeray, though the former chief minister of Maharashtra got 63 Shiv Sena MLAs elected in 2014 after BJP severed political ties. His late father had publicly lamented his party’s inability to cross the 60 MLAs benchmark in Maharashtra.

No sooner did the assembly results indicated that the BJP was winning the three states in the Hindi heartland — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, a Congress spokesperson was alert enough to embark on her next important political task. That of insulating both Rahul Gandhi and his sister Priyanka from any blame of losing these polls. She promptly told a national TV, “Can we blame our CMs and our PCC chiefs who were given full freedom, for failing to deliver the states?” She was referring to the leeway and free hand given to outgoing CMs Ashok Gehlot and Bhupesh Baghel in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and Kamal Nath as PCC chief in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress high command had not interfered at all in election work in these three states, but Gandhis did offer Karnataka-like guarantees. Yet people seem to have opted for PM Modi’s assurance of delivery on governance. The much awaited reality of Ram Mandir being open to people from January 2024 also seems to have worked on the voters. If anything came as a surprise, Congress sources admitted that it was losing Chhattisgarh from its fold. As Congress leader Acharya Pramod Krishnam tersely put it, the party had been sunk by the curse of “sanatan dharma”. As for winning Telangana, the Congress feels it has only the BJP to thank for. If the BJP had not removed Bandi Sanjay Kumar as state chief “We wouldn’t have been voted in.  Everyone was sick and tired of KCR and his family,” says a Congress leader.

Firebrand BJP MP from Odisha Aparajita Sarangi is in the news for two reasons. First, for her effort to protect netizens from loan sharks. Second, even though her party is yet to give her the Lok Sabha ticket officially, she has already swung into campaign mode by putting up posters in her constituency in Bhubaneswar which says “One more chance to Aparajita”. Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik’s party Biju Janata Dal is yet to decide who will fight against Aparajita. Meanwhile, it is learnt that former Mumbai’s top cop Arup Patnaik who lost to Aparajita Sarangi in 2019 by a small margin has decided not to contest citing health issues. Her party sources say Aparajita is focussing on battle of ideas, how issues are interpreted, and how she can control the narrative to swing vote bank politics. For instance, she wrote to chief minister seeking his intervention to bring back peace and normalcy in group clash-hit Padmakesharipur village at Patia, Bhubaneswar and release 150 local residents from jail. Aparajita is also urging government actions against money lenders charging exorbitant 20% interest per month which led to the recent community unrest at Patia.

BJP is set to prepare a centre stage at Kolkata’s Brigade Parade Ground for Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the occasion of Gita Jayanti Celebration on December 24. It is apparent that the programme is the initiative of various organizations of the Sangh Parivar, yet the official organiser is Akhil Bharatiya Sanskrit Parishad. Several functionaries of the organisation including central committee member of Vishva Hindu Parishad, Swami Nirgunananda Maharaj met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 17, officially inviting him to attend the programme. Over lakhs of monks across several Sanatan Hindu organisations such as Bharat Sevashram Sangha and others will be chanting Gita Sotras to mark the occasion named ‘Laksh Kante Gitapath’ (Gita Chants by Lakh Voices). The organisers along with BJP Bengal president Sukanta Majumdar presented the PM with the official invite on a silver plaque with Devnagari script written in copper. Manas Bhattacharya, member of the organising committee says that the PM has expressed his desire to chant Gita Sotras along with the monks. Even the President Draupadi Murmu has confirmed her presence. Claiming it to be a non-political event, Bhattacharya informed that they will also invite West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee as the chief guest and other MPs and MLAs of the state across political parties. It may seem a non-political event but BJP will not let lose the opportunity to use the platform to drive home its Hindutva agenda in Bengal ahead of 2024 general elections.

The BJP in Maharashtra is feeling the heat generated by the social media as its president Chandrashekhar Bawankule continues to be lashed by Shiv Sena (Uddhav) MP Sanjay Raut over the former’s family visit to a casino in Macau. Raut on Friday (Nov 24) released a new video clip entitled ‘An Evening in Macau……..’ with a veiled warning that ‘Picture abhi baki hai.’ This is taken as an indication since immediately thereafter, Raut declared that he has 27 photographs and five video clips in this connection. On top of it, Raut taunted the BJP by saying, “If I post this material, the BJP will have to close down its shop. But I will not do it. We are soldiers of Balasaheb Thackeray.” When the first video clip was uploaded by Raut a few days ago, Bawankule had claimed that in Hong Kong – Macau, when you go in any hotel and need to go to another area therein, you have to pass by a casino table.” Bawankule had lamented that he was facing such type of criticism after being in politics for 34 years. He said he had barely visited his home in the last 14 months. Therefore, his daughter and daughter-in-law had secured three days’ time from him for a family outing. As part of this planning, the family was in Macau, he clarified. Raut’s new revelation has rattled the BJP, which is expected to rebound soon.