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In a bid to rejuvenate its electoral prospects following a string of disappointing results in Bengal, the CPI(M) has turned to professional expertise. The party recently posted a recruitment advertisement on social media, seeking applications for several key positions, including that of political analysts, mass communication writers, graphic designers, and digital marketing executives. CPI(M) State Secretary Mohammad Salim announced the move via Facebook, emphasizing that the party aims to adopt a more professional approach. People have seen CPM Digital for so long, this time CPM will look professional, and this is the beginning, Salim stated, indicating a strategic shift in the party’s functioning. The most notable position advertised is that of political analysts, drawing comparisons to the role played by prominent strategists like Prashant Kishor. However, the party has refrained from officially framing this move as a complete overhaul of its strategy. The decision comes in the wake of the CPI(M)’s dismal performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the party failed to secure any seats in Bengal. Despite forming an alliance with Congress, the party was sidelined by the bipolar contest between the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and BJP. Veteran leaders like Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury suffered losses, and only two CPI(M) candidates, including Salim himself, managed to save their deposits. Internal discussions within the party have highlighted the inability to adapt to modern electoral trends and lingering reliance on outdated strategies. By embracing professional inputs, the CPI(M) appears to be gearing up for the 2026 Assembly elections, signaling a departure from its traditional framework.
Increased voting by women and a comparatively lower turnout of the Muslims for the Maharashtra assembly elections are likely to be the two major factors which can tilt the outcome of the crucial battle that will conclude on Saturday evening. These two trends have been commented upon repeatedly by several analysts while making a comparison with the Lok Sabha election’s voting pattern. As the turnout for this election has been the highest at more than 66% over the past three decades, both sides are claiming that it will benefit their candidates. For instance, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has suggested that the Laadki Bahin Yojana was one reason for the handsome response of women, who would support the Mahayuti nominees. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) failed to gauge the potency of the scheme whereby eligible women receive Rs 1500 per month from the state. Both sides have promised to enhance the provision after watching the unprecedented welcome it has received. Similarly, the lack of enthusiasm of Muslim voters as compared with the Lok Sabha voting complexion has emerged as another important factor for the final outcome. At least a dozen Lok Sabha seats went to MVA owing to en bloc minority voting. In Dhule, while the other five assembly segments supported the Mahayuti, voting in the Malegaon assembly changed the picture and the seat went to MVA. In view of such aspects, the results are awaited eagerly.
As the term of the present Maharashtra assembly ends on 26 November, the political calculations to capture power will have to be finalised within just 48 hours once the results are out. This has heightened the suspense about the outcome of the election since the richest state of India will play a crucial role in shaping the national political future. A mandate in Maharashtra will strengthen the prospects of both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state saw a brief spell of President’s Rule in 2019 as none of the claimants was ready to form a government within the deadline. Making preparations to avert any such eventuality, Mahayuti and MVA planners have booked dozens of rooms in five star hotels in Mumbai for the possible winners. Moreover, chartered planes and helicopters have also been booked in readiness to ensure the availability of the future MLAs. Another precaution is to keep them under watch so that sides are not changed at the eleventh hour. But the Lok Sabha results changed the picture as MVA won 30 out of the 48 seats. The exit polls for the assembly election have predicted a keen race, making it imperative for both sides to count on each vote. Therefore, the 48 hours after the results will become the game changer.
Alliance politics, an eternal feature of the Tamil Nadu political scene, has turned sharper with the advent of actor Vijay on the electoral stage. All the parties save the ruling DMK are running helter-skelter in their bid to stitch up an alliance before the 2026 Assembly polls. DMK is content to wait out the drama with parties rejecting each other as potential allies since this helps the ruling party to stay ahead in poll percentages. The arithmetic is simple. If the votes split three ways as they did in the Lok Sabha polls, the DMK stands to gain the most, or sweep everything as it did with 39 of 39 seats. If the votes are going to split four ways after Vijay’s entry, the DMK will be laughing all the way to Raj Bhavan for the swearing-in ceremony. The AIADMK, a shrewd player of alliance politics in the time of J Jayalalithaa, has not only split on her demise but also stands isolated in the alliance race. They don’t want to join the BJP again after the stinging 2021 experiment. Vijay does not want to join the AIADMK though the party would very much want the youthful politico on his side. The BJP is keeping the door open for AIADMK provided those shunted out are part of a united package. The DMK is only keen to keep VCK and its current allies on board. The more divided the opposition is, the better for MK Stalin and family.
In the wake of escalating face-off between the Chennai-based Tractors and Farm Equipment (TAFE) and its American partner AGCO over the ownership rights of Massey Ferguson in India, a two-member bench of the Madras High Court has stepped in to direct the warring parties to “maintain status quo until the original applications are heard and disposed of by the learned single judge. “For avoidance of doubt, we hasten to add that the observations made herein are tentative and solely intended for the purpose of disposing of these appeals. We have not delved much into the various rival submissions. All rights and contentions are kept open,” the two-member bench said in its order on Monday. The relationship between TAFE, an Amalgamation group company, and AGCO Corporation of the U.S. hit a nasty bump in April last when the AGCO management terminated commercial agreements -– including the one on licensing the Massey Ferguson brand — with TAFE. The Chennai firm quickly got a stay on this from a commercial court. When AGCO subsequently confirmed the termination, TAFE filed a contempt petition in the Chennai commercial court. Separately, TAFE also moved the Madras High Court, asserting its ownership right to Massey Ferguson brand. TAFE had got a favourable interim order from the Madras High Court. TAFE had filed a civil suit before the Madras High Court against Massey Ferguson Corporation, a subsidiary of AGCO, claiming that the said trademarks are distinctive of TAFE in India and exclusively owned by it. It had sought the Madras High Court to declare that TAFE owns the Massey Ferguson brand/trademarks in India. With the HC bench asking both parties to maintain status quo, all eyes are on the upcoming proceeding before the single judge. It is “advantage TAFE” at the moment, however.
With only 12 days remaining for the BCCI Secretary Jay Shah to take charge as independent chairman of the International Cricket Council (ICC), clarity has not emerged as to who would perform the duties of the Secretary from December 1, 2024. First and foremost, election has not been called for the post, and this could be because the BCCI Constitution has adequate provisions for its Joint Secretary to perform the Secretary’s duties. The BCCI Constitution says: “The President shall, in the event of a vacancy or indisposition of an office bearer, delegate the functions to another office-bearer until the vacancy is duly filled up, or the indisposition ceases.” In this case the BCCI President Roger Binny has the right to assign duties to any other office-bearer. Shah who has been the Secretary from 2019 may be allowed a grace period to hand over the work to someone else. Next week is going to be hectic for the ICC to take a call on the format and venues of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 (Feb-Mar) because the BCCI has conveyed to the ICC that India will not travel to Pakistan. The BCCI, nay Jay Shah, would like to see a finality to the Champions Trophy issue, in particular where India will play before he takes charge of the ICC. If the Champions Trophy has to take place, the Pakistan Cricket Board has to accept a hybrid model with one group (with India in it) playing league matches, most likely in Dubai and keeping the venue of the semi-finals and final, open. The PCB may not be in a position to lose the hosting rights and thereby with it a fee of around $ 70 million!
The ‘Satta Bazaar’ is betting down (dampened market sentiments) over Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) forming Maharashtra’s next government. A market player says, “Punters have never been wrong before. Dampened stock market spirits indicate the Mahayuti Alliance is unlikely to win notwithstanding sops galore unleashed by CM Eknath Shinde.” Differing with market pundits, BJP says, “Markets crashed after Foreign Portfolio Investors withdrew Rs 1.25 lakh crore in October (out of total Rs 71 lakh crore total stock investments in India) seeking better pastures after China announced stimulus. FPIs sold Rs 8700 crore stocks in April, Rs 25,600 crore in May then bought Rs 26,600 crore worth in June, Rs 32, 400 crore in July, Rs 7300 crore in August and Rs 57,700 crore in September before the big sell off in October. Already overleveraged NSE slumped, the subdued corporate sector quarterly results after much hype triggered a profit-booking mindset among investors.” Donald Trump’s ascendancy as the next U.S. president (previous tenure witnessed negative bias towards precious metals) bodes badly setting price corrections of gold and silver even as the U.S. dollar firms up, adding to Indian stock market woes. The BJP leader adds, “Maharashtra contributes around 14% to India’s GDP but even when MVA ruled for 2.5 years Modi-nomics ensured high buoyancy on Indian bourses despite stalling of bullet train project, Rs 14,000 crore cost escalation of Metro project.” The market punter, however, cites India’s financial capital Mumbai in Maharashtra that ensures most Indian business gravitates around the state while explaining the gloomy market mood over MVA’s likely win. November 23 will reveal the truth when the political bets are finally called out.
In a massive setback to AAP, Delhi’s transport minister and Jat leader Kailash Gahlot resigned from the party, citing “grave challenges” and “awkward” controversies in a letter to AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal months ahead of Delhi Assembly polls. He has joined the BJP. Gahlot’s exit is well timed in the sense that it comes days before Maharashtra goes to polls. AAP, an INDIA Bloc partner that has no stake in the state polls. But it must be said Gahlot’s exit was something that was in the works for some time now. It is believed that the seeds of discord between Gahlot and the AAP leadership were sown on August 15 over unfurling the national flag during the Delhi Govt’s I-Day celebrations. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, who was in jail on charges linked to the alleged liquor policy scam, had wanted Education Minister Atishi to unfurl the flag. Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena however felt Gahlot was more suitable for the job as he held the Home Department. Meanwhile, Kejriwal indicated that Gahlot had quit as he was under pressure from the ED and IT. In his resignation letter, Gahlot pointed to how “Political ambitions have overtaken our commitment towards people, leaving many promises unfulfilled”. In an apparent swipe at Kejriwal, he referred to “many embarrassing and awkward controversies like the “Sheeshmahal” — a term used by the BJP to refer to the CM’s residence renovated during Kejriwal’s term costing the exchequer Rs 45 crore.
A major controversy has erupted in Tollywood as over 233 directors from films, TV and independent media have filed a defamation suit against Swarup Biswas, president of the Federation of Cine Technicians and Workers of Eastern India. The Rs 23-crore lawsuit follows Biswas’s contentious remarks alleging rampant sexual harassment in the film industry, with 60% of complaints purportedly against directors and producer-directors. The hearing will take place on January 10. Swarup, the younger brother of Aroop Biswas, Bengal’s Power and Housing Minister and a close aide of chief minister Mamata Banerjee, finds himself at the centre of an unprecedented protest by Tollywood’s creative community. This is, perhaps, the first time that Tollywood has publicly challenged the Federation. Directors and producers have also criticized what they call “red-tapism” and “arbitrary demands” imposed by the Federation, including its control over unit sizes, pay scales, working hours, and technician selection. At the Eastern India Motion Picture Association’s (EIMPA) recent AGM, Swarup Biswas proposed that producers deposit Rs 5 lakh each as security to ensure timely technician payments, citing Rs 50 lakh in pending dues. Producers have outright rejected the demand, questioning the Federation’s accountability and EIMPA’s silence on the matter. Veteran actor-director Aparna Sen has publicly questioned Swarup Biswas’s credentials, asking for proof of his contributions to the industry. Biswas holds an assistant director’s card, which is reportedly issued only to those involved in at least two films. Actor-politician Roopa Ganguly also criticized the Federation, accusing it of politicizing the industry and questioning why filmmakers often seek the CM’s intervention during crises.
If rising onion prices decided the election outcome in many states some decades ago, falling soybean prices could impact the outcome in around 70 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, representing two ends of the political spectrum, are found promising farmers of much higher rates, but only after they are elected on 20 November. The sensitive constituencies are spread in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, where cotton and soybean are the main cash crops. The current market rate of Rs 4000 per quintal is unacceptable to the growers though they have no choice but to sell the produce as it can’t be stored for long. The MSP is Rs 4800 but not enough stocks are lifted by the machinery. The ruling saffron alliance has been promising better tariffs. The government hiked the soybean import duty in a bid to jack up the prices but the hike was of only around Rs 400, still leaving a gap of the same amount. Sensing the distress and the government’s inability to make any major announcement, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised Rs 6000 per quintal of the legume. To go a step further, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has pledged to pay Rs 7000. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also joined the chorus. The two regions had by and large supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha election. Hence, Mahayuti leaders are wary of saying anything that can dampen their prospects.
The Adani group and its shares have been under tremendous pressure over the last five weeks since the report from Hindenburg hit the markets. 2nd March was a great day — a big comeback of sorts for Adani. GQG Partners Emerging Markets Equity Fund invested Rs 15,500 cr approx. in four of Adani’s companies. These shares were bought from the Adani family. The price at which these shares were bought are Rs 1,408.25 for Adani Enterprises, Rs 504.60 for Adani Green Energy, Rs 596.20 for Adani Ports and SEZ, and Rs 668.40 for Adani Transmission. These prices at which the deal was done would become a benchmark for valuation going forward. In the near foreseeable future these prices would not break unless a new disaster hits the stock markets. On the same day, the Supreme Court appointed a six-member panel to look into the allegations against the group and submit a report in a sealed cover within two months. This would clear doubts raised by Hindenburg, the continuous disruption in Parliament would now stop and alleged cronyism, a charge raised by the Opposition would also be resolved. The proof of the pudding is in the eating and at the time of writing this article the share prices of three of the four stocks mentioned have gained between 11.13% to 11.32% (as they are subject to a 5% circuit filter) and the fourth has gained a staggering 29.8%.
Come April 1, 2022, the IPO market will witness three major changes that will immensely benefit retail investors. First, as per RBI stipulation, investors cannot borrow over Rs 1 crore from NBFCs to apply for an IPO. Second, SEBI has split the current HNI category into two. The first part, 1/3 of the bucket size of HNI portion, is for Rs 2-10 lakh and, the second bucket size of Rs 10 lakh and above is for HNI-Non-Institutional Investors. Third: change in lock-in period for anchor investors from current 30 days in two bucket groups: 50% shares will have 30-day lock-in and balance 50% for 90 days. Clearly, institutional investors are uncomfortable with the 90-day lock-in with good reason. The last three months saw all new age companies losing around 50% values since their listing. Allotment for HNI category, in case of oversubscription, would be similar to the retail category with one lot per applicant. For example, in the Rs 2 lakh plus category it would be just Rs 2 lakh. Similarly, it would be Rs 10 lakh in the Rs 10 lakh plus category. The new rules will see unrealistic over subscriptions by over 200-300 times disappear to more realistic levels in turn, making grey markets vanish. It will also force promoters to price IPOs more realistically.
Currently, IPO subscription in India is skewed to favour the leveraged HNI and subject to a very high degree of money power. Come April 1, 2022, this is set to undergo a major change with the RBI directing that no individual can be lent more than Rs 1 crore to apply for shares in an IPO. The immediate ramifications will be huge. Firstly, the number of times the HNI portion is subscribed will fall sharply from the present 100-800 times to maybe 5-10 times. The present grey market premiums which decide the subscription level will no longer exist at these levels as the subscription will not match. The reverse math will not allow such premiums to remain. The pricing of issues will go through a downward pressure as merchant bankers, promoters and PE Investors will no longer have the luxury to depend on leveraged HNI to back them. The standard practice of every issue opening at a premium of 20-30% of the issue price will simply stop. What would the new scenario look like? Probably more subdued and balanced. IPO price band would be realistic and listing gains of 10% would be a great number. HNI subscription being in single digit would be the new norm as SEBI would also have notified the new norms of splitting the HNI bucket into two. For retail investors it is a welcome move.
Shareholder activism has been gaining currency and managements have to think twice before proposing resolutions to be approved and voted by shareholders. SEBI is also ensuring that it becomes difficult for promoters to push anything just because of their majority stake. For every negative vote, you now need three positive votes to approve the resolution. In some cases, the promoter is not allowed to vote and the minority shareholders decide the outcome. Readers would recall that Eicher Motor shareholders rejected a pay hike to Sidharth Lal, its MD & CEO. Similarly, IDFC shareholders rejected the reappointment of Vinod Rai as independent director. In the case of Zee Entertainment, two directors stepped down on the eve of the AGM as proxy advisors had asked the shareholders to vote them out. Meanwhile, the company which announced a non-binding agreement sale to Sony Entertainment has been directed by NCLT Mumbai bench to consider shareholder Invesco’s request for EGM to oust MD Punit Goenka. Jindal Steel & Power wants its shareholders to approve payment of one-time remuneration to its four independent directors. Proxy holders are advising shareholders to oppose the same as it violates terms of an independent director. Further an investor has rejected the reappointment of Shallu Jindal, wife of Naveen Jindal and a director on the board of the company for nine years. Indeed, it is a tough time for promoters.
SEBI, the capital markets regulator, has been aggressively issuing orders against entities found violating rules and making illegal gains using unpublished price sensitive information or ‘UPSI’. These orders involve consent terms for the violation and settling without admitting guilt, and also a component of ‘Disgorgement’. The term ‘disgorgement’ is defined as “the act of giving up something (such as profits illegally obtained) on demand or by legal compulsion. This brings us to a bigger and more important point of moral turpitude. Does an individual who sits on a board of a listed company as an independent director and has disgorged an amount to a regulator along with the promoter of the same company for illegally benefiting from USPI committed moral turpitude? The fact that he has used the same information as the promoter has, is testimony to the fact that he is no longer independent. Similarly, when a senior officer of an I-banker acts in a similar manner and disgorges money, the fact that he has settled consent terms amounts to having committed a breach of confidentiality. In such cases without exception, strictest of action needs to be taken and the concerned person should be asked to leave. It is time for Corporate India and minority shareholders to take the matter of ‘UPSI’ seriously and demand that action be taken against erring individuals.
Covid-19 has been affecting the global economy for about 15 months now, yet global markets seem to be doing well. Dow Jones is at a lifetime high and the Indian markets too have been doing reasonably well. The BSE SENSEX is a mere 600 points shy of its lifetime high of 51,259 points made on February 16, while NIFTY is 234 points away from the level of 15,431 points. In India, companies have learnt how costs can be controlled. Travel and travel related expenses have come down significantly. FMCG and consumer companies have also adopted WFH with unbelievable savings and performance. The bulls have complete control of the markets and there are many factors which support them: 1) The FIIs or FPIs continue to invest in India; 2) the second wave appears to have been arrested in a major way and the infrastructure has improved significantly in the intervening period; 3) the monsoon forecast is positive; 4) inflation is under control and interest rates are quite soft; 5) there is enough liquidity in the system in India to spur growth. There is a talk of a third Covid wave happening and hopefully we would be well prepared for the same. The fact that there is a huge trust deficit about China post the pandemic, more and more companies globally are putting in place a policy of China plus one supplier. India is an automatic choice for the one spot and we are seeing traction on this front. Considering all these factors, it becomes almost a certainty that the stock markets would see a new lifetime high in the month of June 2021. That would give us another six months before the calendar year ends and the possibility that markets moving another 5-7% looks distinctly possible.
Speed money is a term regularly used to get work done when dealing with the various government agencies. ‘Green Tax’ was the term used to get work done from the environment ministry in the previous government. With the current government bringing in more transparency and plugging loopholes to make it tougher to make ‘money on the side’, the politicians too are becoming smarter –finding ‘legitimate’ ways to take speed money. I learnt of one such method while interacting with an industrialist of a leading diversified listed conglomerate. This group was to set up a new manufacturing plant in one of the states and was given two options by the politician. The first was the conventional cash. The second option was to invest in the equity capital of an unlisted company at ridiculously high valuations. Since he did not hoard black money, the industrialist chose the second option. The modus operandi was simple. His group invested in a company that had no operating business, hence was basically a paper company or a shell company. On paper it looked like a fraudulent transaction but would never get questioned. This company had many such ‘investors’ who invested to get their work done. ”I am willing to spend money and pick shares in such shell company, even if at a later date I have to write off the investments,” he explained. Ingenuity thy name is politicians!
TRENDS & VIEWS
Editor’s Note: Big Punch In Small Pack
It is the Third Anniversary of Short Post and as a news media startup launched during the Covid-19 pandemic it certainly feels better than good to find ourselves where we are today. Here, I must cite the unstinted support of our seasoned contributors, all senior editors in the country, who brought a great degree of maturity and sagacity to the Short Post newsroom. But for them, our tagline “Authentic Gossip”, an Oxymoron, would not have matured viably. Our user numbers may be small but our stories have created the desired impact among people who matter — decision makers and influencers. We offer a big punch in a small pack and Short Post with its 225-word stories has been punching above its weight category. Having posted close to 3,000 stories in the last 36 months, Short Post, I feel, is an idea whose time has come.
And this is vindicated by our two marquee advertisers – IDFC FIRST Bank and ICICI Lombard. Both believed in our story and have supported us from Day one. A big thank you to both.
If you look at the media landscape – print, TV and digital — it is a mixed bag. There are job losses as some outfits have closed down while a lucky few were bailed out by large corporate houses. Yes, there is a lot of action in the digital space. However, the entry of corporate houses has raised the question of independence of news media outfits. Sadly, there are just a handful of independent media outfits in the country that are highly respected for their neutrality. At Short Post, our credo is not to take sides, prejudge issues or be biased but, informing readers of behind-the-scenes happenings. In essence, Short Post strives to be a neutral editorial platform — neither anti-establishment nor pro-establishment.
As I said last year, disruptions in the media world are moving at a fast and furious pace. Technology is playing a very big role in how content is generated and consumed. But, we are neither alarmed nor perturbed as it is all a part of the evolution process. What gives us comfort is that AI is unable to create original gossipy content. And that is the news arena where we have achieved a distinction.