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Will Sensex Make New History In June?

Covid-19 has been affecting the global economy for about 15 months now, yet global markets seem to be doing well. Dow Jones is at a lifetime high and the Indian markets too have been doing reasonably well. The BSE SENSEX is a mere 600 points shy of its lifetime high of 51,259 points made on February 16, while NIFTY is 234 points away from the level of 15,431 points. In India, companies have learnt how costs can be controlled. Travel and travel related expenses have come down significantly. FMCG and consumer companies have also adopted WFH with unbelievable savings and performance. The bulls have complete control of the markets and there are many factors which support them: 1) The FIIs or FPIs continue to invest in India; 2) the second wave appears to have been arrested in a major way and the infrastructure has improved significantly in the intervening period; 3) the monsoon forecast is positive; 4) inflation is under control and interest rates are quite soft; 5) there is enough liquidity in the system in India to spur growth. There is a talk of a third Covid wave happening and hopefully we would be well prepared for the same. The fact that there is a huge trust deficit about China post the pandemic, more and more companies globally are putting in place a policy of China plus one supplier. India is an automatic choice for the one spot and we are seeing traction on this front. Considering all these factors, it becomes almost a certainty that the stock markets would see a new lifetime high in the month of June 2021. That would give us another six months before the calendar year ends and the possibility that markets moving another 5-7% looks distinctly possible.