Battle Lines Drawn For Tamil Nadu Polls

The battle lines have all but been drawn for the Tamil Nadu Assembly polls 2026. It is advantage DMK as the polls head for a 3- or 4-cornered contest with actor Vijay the significant new player in the fray. The DMK-Congress alliance is yet to be formalised after seat-sharing talks hit speed bumps, but given the long-term relationship between chief minister MK Stalin and Rahul Gandhi, the Congress is only likely to keep its ties with the DMK going. Poll arithmetic in a contest in which the opposition to the regime is divided among the AIADMK-led NDA alliance, Vijay’s TVK which will be on a solo run and Seeman’s NTK, a fringe player who can however play spoilsport by taking away a proportion of the votes, will favour the ruling DMK despite the anti-incumbency factor. With a lack of data and history, no one can gauge Vijay’s advent into politics. But the way the BJP has played the cards against him is certain to bring him such sympathy for the treatment meted out to him and his last movie Jana Nayagan. Repeated questioning by the CBI with regard to the Karur stampede is another good reason why more people will gravitate towards the TVK. Also, people are yearning for change from the tired Dravidian politics. Even so, it will be DMK, with its committed cadre vote, that will come away with less of its vote share diminished even as AIADMK, which got a near equal vote share in 2021, suffers from its association with the northern upper class party BJP. Stalin seems set to emulate Jayalalithaa’s 2016 performance when her AIADMK was re-elected. The alliances are all but set now no matter what conspiracy theories may be floated from here and what pulls and pressures may come up in the last mile to the polls.