Political uncertainty that prevailed in Tamil Nadu over the last few days ended on May 9 evening with Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) president C Joseph Vijay calling on Governor Rajendra Arlekar and staking claim to form the government with the support of 120 MLAs-elect in the 234-member House. This meeting resulted in the Governor okaying his swearing-in on May 10 at 3:15 pm at the Jawaharlal Nehru Stadium, Chennai. It was Vijay’s 4th meeting with the Governor spread over four days. The TVK chief met the Governor only after the VCK and IUML extended unconditional support to TVK. Could these former DMK allies not have extended support right at the beginning? Who was holding them back? Did the DMK first family deliberately delay the formation of Vijay’s government? It is quite an irony that Vijay who raved and ranted against – thiya shakti or evil forces of the DMK — has now become a puppet of the Stalin family. Udhayanidhi Stalin, it is being said, had opposed lending help to Vijay; he fears Vijay opening files against him after becoming CM. Only former chief minister M K Stalin and Lok Sabha MP Kanimozhi K batted for democratic support to TVK. Though all DMK allies have technically extended unconditional support, it is possible Vijay will find his hands tied. Left Parties have been told to protest any action against the Stalins. Which in a way means Vijay’s mandate will eventually be subverted by these do-gooders! They will ensure Vijay becomes a puppet in the hand of DMK. Meanwhile, in a post, M K Stalin noted how the Congress did not care to visit Arivalyam and had rushed to sever ties with DMK. Other allies like the Left Parties and the VCK had at least   thanked the DMK for its support.

Known for his penchant for making statements on any subject under the sun, Shiv Sena (UBT) Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut added another feather to his cap himself. Raut has achieved this glory by writing an open letter to the U.S. President Donald Trump to take exception to the congratulatory message POTUS has sent to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the BJP’s victory in the West Bengal Assembly election. Within minutes, Raut became a troll victim. The BJP called him a joker. Several social media posts castigated Raut, with one saying, “If leaders like Sanjay Raut are writing letters to Donald Trump, then rest assured something good has happened in Bengal.” A post recalled Raut’s past, saying “He is an MP who is an accused in a scam. Raut was in jail in this connection and he is still not exonerated.” Raut has asked the Most Powerful Leader on Earth to stay out of India’s internal matters. In a flowery language message, Raut has also appealed to Trump to “emphasise democratic values” instead of celebrating the WB result. In his post on ‘X,’ the MP said he was responding to the U.S. President’s best wishes to Modi following the BJP’s win in West Bengal. He also reminded Trump that “These are state-level elections — an internal matter of India’s federal democracy.”

The Maharashtra power sharing formula will have a deep impact on West Bengal’s cabinet formation, to be headed by firebrand Suvendu Adhikari. Hence, the West Bengal council of ministers can have two deputy chief ministers and one of them could be a woman, like in Maharashtra. Headed by hard core RSS worker Devendra Fadnavis, the two DCMs are from the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the NCP (Ajit). On the other hand, as the BJP does not need the involvement of any other party in WB to form government, two of its prominent MLAs are likely to be inducted as DCMs. Given the bleak reputation of the Mamata government as far as atrocities against women are concerned, the BJP will try to send out a message by appointing a woman deputy CM that it will implement pro-women policies more intensely. A decision in this regard will be known only after Adhikari is formally elected leader of the legislature party. The second West Bengal deputy CM, significantly, will be an ardent RSS activist. As several advisors have pointed out that Adhikari has risen from TMC cadres, the Sangh Parivar will make it a point to reward one of its veteran members with the other deputy CM slot. However, Adhikari has become a darling of the RSS bigwigs since the second in command under Mamata once, he has trounced her twice in her own backyard and hence is a formidable figure in the national Hindutva spectrum. Just like Himant Biswa Sarma of Assam, another late entrant in the BJP. The coming WB government will also emulate Maharashtra for inviting and housing industrial investment as well as in the infrastructure development sector.

In spite of a clear mandate in Keralam, the Congress has not been able to finalise its CM candidate. It seems to be a problem of plenty where the Congress leadership is struggling with how to impose its choice – K C Venugopal. There was so much distrust between the MLAs and AICC in-charge Deepa Dasmushi that many legislators did not want to air their views about the CM choice in her presence as they feared she would snitch about their preferences to Venugopal. They were not even willing to speak to AICC observers in her presence. In these circumstances, Rahul Gandhi with no genuine feedback may feel free to thrust his closest aide, Venugopal, to become the CM. The UDF won 102 seats in the recently held Kerala assembly elections. The Congress emerged as the single largest party, with 63 seats. Other than Congress, the alliance includes the Indian Union Muslim League, the Kerala Congress (Jacob), the Revolutionary Marxist Party of India, the Janadhipathya Samrakshana Samithy and others. Rahul is said to have finalised two names. One is Venugopal, the Lok Sabha MP from Alappuzha and also the general secretary of the Congress (for organisation). He has the backing of over 40 MLAs. Venugopal belongs to the Nair community, so do the other 2 contenders—Ramesh Chennithala and V D Satheeshan. Rahul is partial towards Venugopal for revamping the Congress organisation. As for Chennithala, he has served as Kerala’s home minister and also the LoP. Chennithala, who is the Congress’s Maharashtra in-charge, is regarded as an organisation man. However, Venugopal may still edge him out as he can arrange funding easily whenever the Gandhi family or the AICC needs. It is being said that big business groups in Keralam are rooting for him. But party workers are fully with Satheesan who was the LoP in the outgoing Keralam Assembly. A social media campaign credits him as the sole architect of the party’s victory. Can Rahul ignore Satheesan?    

Close on the heels of the Congress severing ties with the DMK in Tamil Nadu and extending support to TVK led by Joseph Vijay to form a government, DMK leader Kanimozhi Karunanidhi sent a letter to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla asking for a separate seating arrangement inside the House. In her letter, she said that in view of the changed political circumstances and in view of the fact that our alliance with the Congress has come to an end, it may not be appropriate for us to continue sitting alongside them in the House. She sought separate seating arrangements for her MPs. Kanimozhi’s requests for separate seating arrangement was reposted on X with interest by BJP national secretary BL Santosh; he had predicted that the Congress surely would end up “with egg on its face”. Meanwhile, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav took to social media to take a veiled swipe at the Congress after the party’s dramatic political shift in Tamil Nadu triggering fresh questions over the stability of the INDIA bloc. Sharing a photograph from his recent meeting with Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee and another picture with DMK’s MK Stalin, Yadav posted on social media: “We are not the ones who abandon each other in times of difficulty.” Though he did not name any party, the timing of the remark quickly drew attention in political circles, especially after Congress walked out of its long-standing alliance with the DMK in TN and extended support to actor-politician Vijay’s TVK. Yadav’s post also came just a day after he met Mamata Banerjee and TMC national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee in Kolkata following the Trinamool Congress’ setback in West Bengal. The meeting was seen as part of broader opposition efforts to reassess strategy after recent assembly election losses.

Who is behind the violence in Bengal? Since the day election results were declared, Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee has not conceded defeat. She is apprehensive about her supporters, who might opt to lie low after the debacle. The face of her bhaipo or nephew Abhishek Banerjee, who had challenged Home Minister Amit Shah to come to Bengal after May 4, appeared drained and pale.  The Centre has apparently received intelligence reports of TMC supporters donning saffron clothes and ’tilak’, and holding BJP flags while indulging in violence. In some places, some BJP supporters have also indulged in vengeful action. Videos of most of these acts of violence are available, and it is up to the authorities to take corrective action immediately. It is a good sign that the police have swung into action and incidents of violence have declined. For the BJP, it will be a challenge to ensure peace, end fear in the minds of the public and establish the rule of law. Suvendu Adhikari’s personal assistant, Chandranath Rath was shot dead triggering strong political reactions and intensified scrutiny of post-poll violence in West Bengal. Till now, nearly 200 FIRs have been filed and 433 persons have been arrested. Bengal police, along with central paramilitary forces, are raiding hideouts of anti-social elements, and large quantities of arms and ammunition have been seized. In Sandeshkhali of North 24 Parganas district, more than 20 country-made bombs were seized. Bengal police have set up a helpline for people to dial in case of violent incidents. On May 5, a Trinamool Congress temporary office in Kolkata’s Dharmatala locality was demolished by some BJP supporters, using a bulldozer. BJP leaders claimed that the party office was built illegally in the middle of a busy road.

After Bengal, Telangana is the BJP’s next target in the South? Is it laying the ground to flip a Congress-ruled state? The failure and rejection of BRS, and the unfolding saga of Congress’s rule, ridden by corruption and the non-delivery of promises, have paved the way for the BJP to gear up to set a narrative against the rule of both these parties. In this context, Union Minister Bandi Sanjay’s return has not been ruled out. Sanjay, president of the Telangana BJP in 2023, was considered a powerful orator and succeeded in creating an anti-incumbency wave against the ruling BRS in the state. However, it is believed that his abrupt removal from the post cost the BJP a chance at performing better in Telangana. A long-term plan for Telangana that would carry the party forward beyond any individual is in the works. The BJP is hoping to position itself to capitalise on a possible victory in Karnataka, which goes to the polls just six months before Telangana. Sunil Bansal, master strategist and the BJP’s national general secretary, who is among those credited for delivering Bengal for the party, is expected to visit Hyderabad to give the state leaders a blueprint for 2028, sources say. Nearly a month before Prime Minister Modi’s scheduled visit to Hyderabad on May 10, BJP national president Nitin Nabin and national general secretary Tarun Chugh visited Hyderabad in April, just as Tamil Nadu and Kerala were going to polls. The two leaders met with senior party functionaries and the Telangana Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) sangathan mantri, Chandrasekhar Tiwari. In his maiden visit to the state after assuming office for a third consecutive term, PM Modi will launch infrastructure and industrial projects worth nearly Rs 9,000 crore. At present, the BJP has eight MLAs in Telangana and the same number of MPs from the state.

Any humble soul who has for the first time been part of Sunil Gavaskar’s annual get together is always keen and eager to receive an invitation for the subsequent years! SMG’s bash — as some would like to describe the coming together of a niche cricketing fraternity — is truly a humbling experience. The Indian batting legend who came up with remarkable defensive skills with the full face of the bat against the World’s best express fast bowlers, actually lets others have a ball for over five hours, but making it a point to receive one and all with happiness and grace. Gavaskar took time off from his IPL duties to mingle with people who have been part of his splendid cricketing journey – from his nascent years to the time he bid adieu to the game and many more from his post retirement career in the media sphere. One inevitably bumps into familiar faces and acquaintances, but it was the first time for former Bombay off spinner Avadhut Zarapkar — he played the full 1979-80 Ranji Trophy season with the legend. “You know I am meeting Sunil for the first time in 24 years,” the Kolhapur based Avadhut surprised one. The presence of Sachin Tendulkar, Ravi Shastri, Sandeep Patil, Sanjay Manjrekar, Ajit Agarkar, Karsan Ghavri, Balwinder Sandhu, Raju Kulkarni, Jatin Paranjape, Suru Nayak, Ghulam Parkar, and a number of first-class cricketers made the “do” a star-studded gathering. Then of course there were his Dadar Union teammates and also Chandu Patankar – at 95 the oldest India Test cricketer and the 94-year-old Chandrasekhar Joshi, the leg-break-googly bowler who played from 1951 to 1978 for Rajasthan and Baroda and bagged 288 wickets. And so the SMG bash truly pulsated, Anil Joshi!

Nothing has shocked the DMK first family more than the defeat of former Tamil Nadu CM M K Stalin from Kolathur Assembly constituency, a seat he had represented thrice since 2011. He is the fourth sitting Chief Minister in Tamil Nadu to lose an Assembly election. Stalin had lost by 8,795 votes to V S Babu, the TVK candidate. Interestingly Babu was once a close associate of the DMK president. It is being said Stalin and his wife Durga would regularly visit Kolathur. That is why Durga Stain was shocked that her husband had narrowly lost from a seat that the couple had carefully nurtured—particularly by reaching out to women’s groups. When Durga Stalin asked for feedback from Kolathur women why Stalin lost in spite of regular interface with local women’s groups, she was in for a shock. She was told that the Stalins had never actually interacted with local women. Instead, women from other areas were brought in by busloads to interact with Stalins. Stalin had held the seat since its creation in 2011. He had previously secured the seat with margins exceeding 37,000 votes in 2016 and over 70,000 in 2021. In contrast, son Udhayanidhi Stalin retained his Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni Assembly constituency for the second time.

A breaking news on SUN TV flashed the unfolding development — AIADMK ‘s C V Shanmugam is alleged to have convinced 15 of his party colleagues to follow him to a resort in Puducherry for some R& R (Rest and Recreation). They say trouble seldom comes by itself. Is Shanmugam pressurising the party chief Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) that AIADMK must “support” Vijay, the newly elected wonder for the 11 seats he is falling short in getting a majority to claim governance in TN?  The quickly called AIADMK meet at the Lloyd’s Road HQ brought together strongmen K P Munusamy, S P Velumani , C Vijaya Bhaskar and the voluble Shanmugam in confrontation mood with EPS. A media meet soon after raised the question is the party ready to give support to Vijay? Munusamy quickly denied such speculations, singing praises of the party’s illustrious leaders MGR and J Jayalalithaa, now standing tall under Edappadi.  But the talk about the ginger group only got louder. So this allegation of resorting to keep away from the leadership and raise the flag of dissent appears to be true …after all every party, including the chameleon Congress is in the throes of manoeuvre and machinations to get into the TVK bandwagon at any cost. Old loyalties, party principles and public disdain are not about to stop these aspirers from throwing their hats into that magic ring of 118 MLA s of TVK, needed to claim majority in the Assembly. So much for “serving the people of TN”…principles of loyalty and party discipline rarely stop self-serving politicians.