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Increased voting by women and a comparatively lower turnout of the Muslims for the Maharashtra assembly elections are likely to be the two major factors which can tilt the outcome of the crucial battle that will conclude on Saturday evening. These two trends have been commented upon repeatedly by several analysts while making a comparison with the Lok Sabha election’s voting pattern. As the turnout for this election has been the highest at more than 66% over the past three decades, both sides are claiming that it will benefit their candidates. For instance, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has suggested that the Laadki Bahin Yojana was one reason for the handsome response of women, who would support the Mahayuti nominees. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) failed to gauge the potency of the scheme whereby eligible women receive Rs 1500 per month from the state. Both sides have promised to enhance the provision after watching the unprecedented welcome it has received. Similarly, the lack of enthusiasm of Muslim voters as compared with the Lok Sabha voting complexion has emerged as another important factor for the final outcome. At least a dozen Lok Sabha seats went to MVA owing to en bloc minority voting. In Dhule, while the other five assembly segments supported the Mahayuti, voting in the Malegaon assembly changed the picture and the seat went to MVA. In view of such aspects, the results are awaited eagerly.
As the term of the present Maharashtra assembly ends on 26 November, the political calculations to capture power will have to be finalised within just 48 hours once the results are out. This has heightened the suspense about the outcome of the election since the richest state of India will play a crucial role in shaping the national political future. A mandate in Maharashtra will strengthen the prospects of both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state saw a brief spell of President’s Rule in 2019 as none of the claimants was ready to form a government within the deadline. Making preparations to avert any such eventuality, Mahayuti and MVA planners have booked dozens of rooms in five star hotels in Mumbai for the possible winners. Moreover, chartered planes and helicopters have also been booked in readiness to ensure the availability of the future MLAs. Another precaution is to keep them under watch so that sides are not changed at the eleventh hour. But the Lok Sabha results changed the picture as MVA won 30 out of the 48 seats. The exit polls for the assembly election have predicted a keen race, making it imperative for both sides to count on each vote. Therefore, the 48 hours after the results will become the game changer.
Alliance politics, an eternal feature of the Tamil Nadu political scene, has turned sharper with the advent of actor Vijay on the electoral stage. All the parties save the ruling DMK are running helter-skelter in their bid to stitch up an alliance before the 2026 Assembly polls. DMK is content to wait out the drama with parties rejecting each other as potential allies since this helps the ruling party to stay ahead in poll percentages. The arithmetic is simple. If the votes split three ways as they did in the Lok Sabha polls, the DMK stands to gain the most, or sweep everything as it did with 39 of 39 seats. If the votes are going to split four ways after Vijay’s entry, the DMK will be laughing all the way to Raj Bhavan for the swearing-in ceremony. The AIADMK, a shrewd player of alliance politics in the time of J Jayalalithaa, has not only split on her demise but also stands isolated in the alliance race. They don’t want to join the BJP again after the stinging 2021 experiment. Vijay does not want to join the AIADMK though the party would very much want the youthful politico on his side. The BJP is keeping the door open for AIADMK provided those shunted out are part of a united package. The DMK is only keen to keep VCK and its current allies on board. The more divided the opposition is, the better for MK Stalin and family.
In the wake of escalating face-off between the Chennai-based Tractors and Farm Equipment (TAFE) and its American partner AGCO over the ownership rights of Massey Ferguson in India, a two-member bench of the Madras High Court has stepped in to direct the warring parties to “maintain status quo until the original applications are heard and disposed of by the learned single judge. “For avoidance of doubt, we hasten to add that the observations made herein are tentative and solely intended for the purpose of disposing of these appeals. We have not delved much into the various rival submissions. All rights and contentions are kept open,” the two-member bench said in its order on Monday. The relationship between TAFE, an Amalgamation group company, and AGCO Corporation of the U.S. hit a nasty bump in April last when the AGCO management terminated commercial agreements -– including the one on licensing the Massey Ferguson brand — with TAFE. The Chennai firm quickly got a stay on this from a commercial court. When AGCO subsequently confirmed the termination, TAFE filed a contempt petition in the Chennai commercial court. Separately, TAFE also moved the Madras High Court, asserting its ownership right to Massey Ferguson brand. TAFE had got a favourable interim order from the Madras High Court. TAFE had filed a civil suit before the Madras High Court against Massey Ferguson Corporation, a subsidiary of AGCO, claiming that the said trademarks are distinctive of TAFE in India and exclusively owned by it. It had sought the Madras High Court to declare that TAFE owns the Massey Ferguson brand/trademarks in India. With the HC bench asking both parties to maintain status quo, all eyes are on the upcoming proceeding before the single judge. It is “advantage TAFE” at the moment, however.
With only 12 days remaining for the BCCI Secretary Jay Shah to take charge as independent chairman of the International Cricket Council (ICC), clarity has not emerged as to who would perform the duties of the Secretary from December 1, 2024. First and foremost, election has not been called for the post, and this could be because the BCCI Constitution has adequate provisions for its Joint Secretary to perform the Secretary’s duties. The BCCI Constitution says: “The President shall, in the event of a vacancy or indisposition of an office bearer, delegate the functions to another office-bearer until the vacancy is duly filled up, or the indisposition ceases.” In this case the BCCI President Roger Binny has the right to assign duties to any other office-bearer. Shah who has been the Secretary from 2019 may be allowed a grace period to hand over the work to someone else. Next week is going to be hectic for the ICC to take a call on the format and venues of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 (Feb-Mar) because the BCCI has conveyed to the ICC that India will not travel to Pakistan. The BCCI, nay Jay Shah, would like to see a finality to the Champions Trophy issue, in particular where India will play before he takes charge of the ICC. If the Champions Trophy has to take place, the Pakistan Cricket Board has to accept a hybrid model with one group (with India in it) playing league matches, most likely in Dubai and keeping the venue of the semi-finals and final, open. The PCB may not be in a position to lose the hosting rights and thereby with it a fee of around $ 70 million!
The ‘Satta Bazaar’ is betting down (dampened market sentiments) over Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) forming Maharashtra’s next government. A market player says, “Punters have never been wrong before. Dampened stock market spirits indicate the Mahayuti Alliance is unlikely to win notwithstanding sops galore unleashed by CM Eknath Shinde.” Differing with market pundits, BJP says, “Markets crashed after Foreign Portfolio Investors withdrew Rs 1.25 lakh crore in October (out of total Rs 71 lakh crore total stock investments in India) seeking better pastures after China announced stimulus. FPIs sold Rs 8700 crore stocks in April, Rs 25,600 crore in May then bought Rs 26,600 crore worth in June, Rs 32, 400 crore in July, Rs 7300 crore in August and Rs 57,700 crore in September before the big sell off in October. Already overleveraged NSE slumped, the subdued corporate sector quarterly results after much hype triggered a profit-booking mindset among investors.” Donald Trump’s ascendancy as the next U.S. president (previous tenure witnessed negative bias towards precious metals) bodes badly setting price corrections of gold and silver even as the U.S. dollar firms up, adding to Indian stock market woes. The BJP leader adds, “Maharashtra contributes around 14% to India’s GDP but even when MVA ruled for 2.5 years Modi-nomics ensured high buoyancy on Indian bourses despite stalling of bullet train project, Rs 14,000 crore cost escalation of Metro project.” The market punter, however, cites India’s financial capital Mumbai in Maharashtra that ensures most Indian business gravitates around the state while explaining the gloomy market mood over MVA’s likely win. November 23 will reveal the truth when the political bets are finally called out.
In a massive setback to AAP, Delhi’s transport minister and Jat leader Kailash Gahlot resigned from the party, citing “grave challenges” and “awkward” controversies in a letter to AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal months ahead of Delhi Assembly polls. He has joined the BJP. Gahlot’s exit is well timed in the sense that it comes days before Maharashtra goes to polls. AAP, an INDIA Bloc partner that has no stake in the state polls. But it must be said Gahlot’s exit was something that was in the works for some time now. It is believed that the seeds of discord between Gahlot and the AAP leadership were sown on August 15 over unfurling the national flag during the Delhi Govt’s I-Day celebrations. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, who was in jail on charges linked to the alleged liquor policy scam, had wanted Education Minister Atishi to unfurl the flag. Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena however felt Gahlot was more suitable for the job as he held the Home Department. Meanwhile, Kejriwal indicated that Gahlot had quit as he was under pressure from the ED and IT. In his resignation letter, Gahlot pointed to how “Political ambitions have overtaken our commitment towards people, leaving many promises unfulfilled”. In an apparent swipe at Kejriwal, he referred to “many embarrassing and awkward controversies like the “Sheeshmahal” — a term used by the BJP to refer to the CM’s residence renovated during Kejriwal’s term costing the exchequer Rs 45 crore.
A major controversy has erupted in Tollywood as over 233 directors from films, TV and independent media have filed a defamation suit against Swarup Biswas, president of the Federation of Cine Technicians and Workers of Eastern India. The Rs 23-crore lawsuit follows Biswas’s contentious remarks alleging rampant sexual harassment in the film industry, with 60% of complaints purportedly against directors and producer-directors. The hearing will take place on January 10. Swarup, the younger brother of Aroop Biswas, Bengal’s Power and Housing Minister and a close aide of chief minister Mamata Banerjee, finds himself at the centre of an unprecedented protest by Tollywood’s creative community. This is, perhaps, the first time that Tollywood has publicly challenged the Federation. Directors and producers have also criticized what they call “red-tapism” and “arbitrary demands” imposed by the Federation, including its control over unit sizes, pay scales, working hours, and technician selection. At the Eastern India Motion Picture Association’s (EIMPA) recent AGM, Swarup Biswas proposed that producers deposit Rs 5 lakh each as security to ensure timely technician payments, citing Rs 50 lakh in pending dues. Producers have outright rejected the demand, questioning the Federation’s accountability and EIMPA’s silence on the matter. Veteran actor-director Aparna Sen has publicly questioned Swarup Biswas’s credentials, asking for proof of his contributions to the industry. Biswas holds an assistant director’s card, which is reportedly issued only to those involved in at least two films. Actor-politician Roopa Ganguly also criticized the Federation, accusing it of politicizing the industry and questioning why filmmakers often seek the CM’s intervention during crises.
If rising onion prices decided the election outcome in many states some decades ago, falling soybean prices could impact the outcome in around 70 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, representing two ends of the political spectrum, are found promising farmers of much higher rates, but only after they are elected on 20 November. The sensitive constituencies are spread in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, where cotton and soybean are the main cash crops. The current market rate of Rs 4000 per quintal is unacceptable to the growers though they have no choice but to sell the produce as it can’t be stored for long. The MSP is Rs 4800 but not enough stocks are lifted by the machinery. The ruling saffron alliance has been promising better tariffs. The government hiked the soybean import duty in a bid to jack up the prices but the hike was of only around Rs 400, still leaving a gap of the same amount. Sensing the distress and the government’s inability to make any major announcement, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised Rs 6000 per quintal of the legume. To go a step further, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has pledged to pay Rs 7000. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also joined the chorus. The two regions had by and large supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha election. Hence, Mahayuti leaders are wary of saying anything that can dampen their prospects.
Are the re-runs slowly becoming a revenue model both for producers and exhibitors who have been grappling to bring back the audiences to cinema halls? Diwali turned out to be decent but then again we are gone back to re-release of films. Shah Rukh Khan’s Veer Zara re-release has been appreciated. Rakesh Roshan plans a re-release of Karan Arjun with a huge number of screens after 30 years of its release. This again has Shah Rukh Khan and Salman Khan coming together for the first time on screen. SRK’s Kal Ho Naa Ho and Pardes too are re-releasing in cinemas. Those in the trade feel that re-release of Tumbbad, Rehna Hai Tere Dil Mein and Laila Majnu have given courage to producers to cash on re-runs. The re-runs have stirred both excitement and curiosity. Traditionally, re-releases were reserved for timeless classics, but now more recent films are being revived, prompting questions: Is this trend purely nostalgic, or is there a deeper strategy at play? According to Trade Analyst Saurabh Varma, the re-release phenomenon is benefiting the cinema industry in multiple ways. For producers, re-releasing films is a cost-effective option. The marketing and distribution expenses are far lower than for new releases. Re-releases tap into the large fan bases of iconic films, giving long-time fans a chance to relive their favourite stories on the big screen. Furthermore, these revivals provide a unique opportunity for younger viewers who may have missed these films during their initial release. The combination of nostalgia and iconic music resonates deeply with audiences.
Congress Peeved As Teen Murti Loses Its Nehru Link, Renamed Prime Ministers Museum & Library Society
In a special meeting of the Nehru Memorial Museum & Library (NMML) Society, it was resolved to change the name to the Prime Ministers Museum & Library Society. The meeting was presided by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh who is the Vice President of the Society. PM Narendra Modi had mooted the idea of setting up of a museum dedicated to all the PMs of India on Teen Murti Premises, New Delhi in 2016. The Executive Council, NMML had in its 162nd meeting held November 25, 2016 approved the construction of the Museum of all PMs in the Teen Murti Estate. The project was completed and the Pradhanmantri Sangrahalaya was opened to the public on April 21 2022. The Executive Council subsequently felt that the name of the Institution should reflect the present activities which now also include a Sangrahalaya depicting the collective journey of democracy in Independent India and highlighting the contribution of each Prime Minister in nation-building. Nripendra Misra , who is chairman of the Executive Council, explained the need for a change in name by emphasizing that the Prime Minister’s Museum expresses the nation’s deep commitment to democracy and so the name of the institution should reflect its new form. The Congress, which has not been enthusiastic about all PMs’ museums right from the start, lashed out at losing the nostalgic Teen Murti link with Nehru.
When Jai Inder Kaur, daughter of former Punjab chief minister Capt Amarinder Singh, organised a BJP rally in Patiala to celebrate 9 years of Modi government last week it became apparent that she would be staking claim to the Patiala Lok Sabha seat currently held by her mother Perneet Kaur. Congress sources conceded that the Patiala Lok Sabha seat was now up for grabs. “We had after all suspended Perneet Kaur in February on the charge of helping her husband and the BJP,” said a Congress leader. With the exit of the royal family from the Congress fold, the party may not have any serious candidate to take on Jai Inder Kaur. Significantly, Kaur’s father was conspicuous by his absence at the rally as he wanted to keep the focus on his daughter. After being dumped by the Congress as CM, Capt Amarinder had floated Punjab Lok Congress in 2021. He merged his party along with the BJP in 2022 and was subsequently inducted into the party’s national executive. The Patiala rally was attended by Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya. Some of them who have worked with Capt Amarinder have reportedly sent feelers to the BJP. After the loss of Jalandhar Lok Sabha by -election, there is also talk of the BJP and the Akali Dal coming back together for 2024.
Bharat Rashtra Samiti (BRS) has opened its first Maharashtra office in Nagpur with a bang. Former BJP MLAs Charan Waghmare and Raju Todsam have joined the party, hailing the leadership of Telangana chief minister and BRS founder K Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR). They have alleged that the BJP in Vidarbha region was more favourable to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) than to its own workers. Waghmare said he was expelled from the party because he was opposed to the BJP’s electoral alliance with the NCP. Both plan to contest the next assembly election on BRS tickets. Buoyed by the increasing response, BRS has announced that it will be opening its offices all over Maharashtra in the near future. Already, the BRS is gaining popularity in Marathwada region for Telangana’s decision to buy its onion, otherwise dumped by farmers by the roadside since the prices in that region had crashed and it was not possible to sell the produce. Former MLA Harshwardhan Jadhav, who joined the BRS about a month ago, took the initiative to finalise the deal between the growers and the market committees in Telangana. Another former MLA, Deepak Atram, has predicted that more and more political workers will enter the BRS after frustration with their present party leadership. KCR is now said to be concentrated more on Maharashtra than on Andhra Pradesh and is in search of influential leaders from other parties.
The run-up to the Panchayat election in West Bengal to be held on July 8 is witnessing violence right from the first day (June 9) of filing nomination papers. Incidentally, the Opposition parties moved the Calcutta High Court after new State Election Commissioner Rajiva Sinha announced that the filing of nominations will be from June 9 to June 15 and June 20 will be the last date of withdrawal. Incidents of sporadic violence have been reported from South 24 Parganas, North 24 Parganas, Murshidabad, Birbhum, East Midnapore, East Burdwan, Cooch Behar where BJP, CPM and Congress have accused the ruling TMC of preventing their candidates from filing nominations. According to TMC senior leadership, it is still facing the repercussions of Panchayat polls 2018, where TMC won more than 95% of gram panchayats, of which 34% of the seats were uncontested, a record in the history of Bengal Panchayat polls. Further, TMC is grappling with rampant infighting in its own bastion of South Bengal which turned violent. Incidentally, the appeal by the party’s general secretary Abhishek Banerjee to keep Panchayat poll violence-free seems to have fallen on deaf ears. What needs to be seen is whether Didi and the Election Commission will comply with the Calcutta High Court’s ruling and deploy central force at the super sensitive booths across the state during the panchayat poll.
The stock market is in a bull phase with both the benchmark indices — Sensex, Nifty50 – touching new highs every week. The market which is constantly looking for a trigger to scale to new highs seems to have got a big one. According to Mint “Participatory notes are poised for a comeback, this time through the International Financial Services Centre, Gift City, Gujarat, after nearly a decade of being discouraged by Indian regulators. Some leading global banks that currently issue P-Notes from global jurisdictions, such as Singapore, are considering shifting to GIFT City as the special economic zone offers both tax sops and regulatory clarity.” The return of P-Notes will be like music to the ears for the stock market players. According to The Hindu Business Line report “foreign investors had patronised P-Notes for 14 years between 2004 and 2018. At the peak, P-Note linked investments in India stood at around Rs 4-lakh crore. But P-Notes lost their charm after SEBI restricted its use and banned them completely in the derivatives segment.” Currently, India is parched for foreign money in stock markets and allowing P-Notes could act like steroids, experts say. On a net basis, the foreign portfolio investors sold Indian equities worth more than $20 bn in 2022. Tax arbitrage has forced FPIs to move to other jurisdictions.
Irony! Kerala’s Left Front Govt In Talks With Tatas, Adanis To Bail Out Kannur International Airport
It is rare that the fortunes of an airport are tied to an airline. One of the big casualties of Go First’s insolvency is Kerala’s second public-private airport, Kannur International Airport Ltd (KIAL). Set up at a cost of Rs 2500 crore in 2018, the airport which has attracted over 20 million passengers is today defaulting on salaries and all infrastructure payments. In fact, things have turned worse in the last two months, with the airport defaulting on interest payments on borrowings which have now risen to Rs 1200 crore. Go First used to operate 240 flights per month from KIAL to domestic and international destinations. These operations earned it a revenue of Rs 5 crore every month. Also, KIAL was used by Go First as a major parking bay for its fleet of aircraft. The airlines which operate from KIAL today are Air India Express and Indigo, which do only four or five flights per day. The Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan is worried that the airport could turn out to be another white elephant. It is believed that his government has approached the Tatas and Adanis to bail out KIAL. This is ironic, as the same Pinarayi government had vehemently opposed the privatisation of Trivandrum International to Adani. Critics say that Vijayan will go to any extent to save KIAL, as it is in the backyard of all the top Kerala CPM leaders.
TRENDS & VIEWS
Editor’s Note: Big Punch In Small Pack
It is the Third Anniversary of Short Post and as a news media startup launched during the Covid-19 pandemic it certainly feels better than good to find ourselves where we are today. Here, I must cite the unstinted support of our seasoned contributors, all senior editors in the country, who brought a great degree of maturity and sagacity to the Short Post newsroom. But for them, our tagline “Authentic Gossip”, an Oxymoron, would not have matured viably. Our user numbers may be small but our stories have created the desired impact among people who matter — decision makers and influencers. We offer a big punch in a small pack and Short Post with its 225-word stories has been punching above its weight category. Having posted close to 3,000 stories in the last 36 months, Short Post, I feel, is an idea whose time has come.
And this is vindicated by our two marquee advertisers – IDFC FIRST Bank and ICICI Lombard. Both believed in our story and have supported us from Day one. A big thank you to both.
If you look at the media landscape – print, TV and digital — it is a mixed bag. There are job losses as some outfits have closed down while a lucky few were bailed out by large corporate houses. Yes, there is a lot of action in the digital space. However, the entry of corporate houses has raised the question of independence of news media outfits. Sadly, there are just a handful of independent media outfits in the country that are highly respected for their neutrality. At Short Post, our credo is not to take sides, prejudge issues or be biased but, informing readers of behind-the-scenes happenings. In essence, Short Post strives to be a neutral editorial platform — neither anti-establishment nor pro-establishment.
As I said last year, disruptions in the media world are moving at a fast and furious pace. Technology is playing a very big role in how content is generated and consumed. But, we are neither alarmed nor perturbed as it is all a part of the evolution process. What gives us comfort is that AI is unable to create original gossipy content. And that is the news arena where we have achieved a distinction.