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Increased voting by women and a comparatively lower turnout of the Muslims for the Maharashtra assembly elections are likely to be the two major factors which can tilt the outcome of the crucial battle that will conclude on Saturday evening. These two trends have been commented upon repeatedly by several analysts while making a comparison with the Lok Sabha election’s voting pattern. As the turnout for this election has been the highest at more than 66% over the past three decades, both sides are claiming that it will benefit their candidates. For instance, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has suggested that the Laadki Bahin Yojana was one reason for the handsome response of women, who would support the Mahayuti nominees. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) failed to gauge the potency of the scheme whereby eligible women receive Rs 1500 per month from the state. Both sides have promised to enhance the provision after watching the unprecedented welcome it has received. Similarly, the lack of enthusiasm of Muslim voters as compared with the Lok Sabha voting complexion has emerged as another important factor for the final outcome. At least a dozen Lok Sabha seats went to MVA owing to en bloc minority voting. In Dhule, while the other five assembly segments supported the Mahayuti, voting in the Malegaon assembly changed the picture and the seat went to MVA. In view of such aspects, the results are awaited eagerly.
As the term of the present Maharashtra assembly ends on 26 November, the political calculations to capture power will have to be finalised within just 48 hours once the results are out. This has heightened the suspense about the outcome of the election since the richest state of India will play a crucial role in shaping the national political future. A mandate in Maharashtra will strengthen the prospects of both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state saw a brief spell of President’s Rule in 2019 as none of the claimants was ready to form a government within the deadline. Making preparations to avert any such eventuality, Mahayuti and MVA planners have booked dozens of rooms in five star hotels in Mumbai for the possible winners. Moreover, chartered planes and helicopters have also been booked in readiness to ensure the availability of the future MLAs. Another precaution is to keep them under watch so that sides are not changed at the eleventh hour. But the Lok Sabha results changed the picture as MVA won 30 out of the 48 seats. The exit polls for the assembly election have predicted a keen race, making it imperative for both sides to count on each vote. Therefore, the 48 hours after the results will become the game changer.
Alliance politics, an eternal feature of the Tamil Nadu political scene, has turned sharper with the advent of actor Vijay on the electoral stage. All the parties save the ruling DMK are running helter-skelter in their bid to stitch up an alliance before the 2026 Assembly polls. DMK is content to wait out the drama with parties rejecting each other as potential allies since this helps the ruling party to stay ahead in poll percentages. The arithmetic is simple. If the votes split three ways as they did in the Lok Sabha polls, the DMK stands to gain the most, or sweep everything as it did with 39 of 39 seats. If the votes are going to split four ways after Vijay’s entry, the DMK will be laughing all the way to Raj Bhavan for the swearing-in ceremony. The AIADMK, a shrewd player of alliance politics in the time of J Jayalalithaa, has not only split on her demise but also stands isolated in the alliance race. They don’t want to join the BJP again after the stinging 2021 experiment. Vijay does not want to join the AIADMK though the party would very much want the youthful politico on his side. The BJP is keeping the door open for AIADMK provided those shunted out are part of a united package. The DMK is only keen to keep VCK and its current allies on board. The more divided the opposition is, the better for MK Stalin and family.
In the wake of escalating face-off between the Chennai-based Tractors and Farm Equipment (TAFE) and its American partner AGCO over the ownership rights of Massey Ferguson in India, a two-member bench of the Madras High Court has stepped in to direct the warring parties to “maintain status quo until the original applications are heard and disposed of by the learned single judge. “For avoidance of doubt, we hasten to add that the observations made herein are tentative and solely intended for the purpose of disposing of these appeals. We have not delved much into the various rival submissions. All rights and contentions are kept open,” the two-member bench said in its order on Monday. The relationship between TAFE, an Amalgamation group company, and AGCO Corporation of the U.S. hit a nasty bump in April last when the AGCO management terminated commercial agreements -– including the one on licensing the Massey Ferguson brand — with TAFE. The Chennai firm quickly got a stay on this from a commercial court. When AGCO subsequently confirmed the termination, TAFE filed a contempt petition in the Chennai commercial court. Separately, TAFE also moved the Madras High Court, asserting its ownership right to Massey Ferguson brand. TAFE had got a favourable interim order from the Madras High Court. TAFE had filed a civil suit before the Madras High Court against Massey Ferguson Corporation, a subsidiary of AGCO, claiming that the said trademarks are distinctive of TAFE in India and exclusively owned by it. It had sought the Madras High Court to declare that TAFE owns the Massey Ferguson brand/trademarks in India. With the HC bench asking both parties to maintain status quo, all eyes are on the upcoming proceeding before the single judge. It is “advantage TAFE” at the moment, however.
With only 12 days remaining for the BCCI Secretary Jay Shah to take charge as independent chairman of the International Cricket Council (ICC), clarity has not emerged as to who would perform the duties of the Secretary from December 1, 2024. First and foremost, election has not been called for the post, and this could be because the BCCI Constitution has adequate provisions for its Joint Secretary to perform the Secretary’s duties. The BCCI Constitution says: “The President shall, in the event of a vacancy or indisposition of an office bearer, delegate the functions to another office-bearer until the vacancy is duly filled up, or the indisposition ceases.” In this case the BCCI President Roger Binny has the right to assign duties to any other office-bearer. Shah who has been the Secretary from 2019 may be allowed a grace period to hand over the work to someone else. Next week is going to be hectic for the ICC to take a call on the format and venues of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 (Feb-Mar) because the BCCI has conveyed to the ICC that India will not travel to Pakistan. The BCCI, nay Jay Shah, would like to see a finality to the Champions Trophy issue, in particular where India will play before he takes charge of the ICC. If the Champions Trophy has to take place, the Pakistan Cricket Board has to accept a hybrid model with one group (with India in it) playing league matches, most likely in Dubai and keeping the venue of the semi-finals and final, open. The PCB may not be in a position to lose the hosting rights and thereby with it a fee of around $ 70 million!
The ‘Satta Bazaar’ is betting down (dampened market sentiments) over Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) forming Maharashtra’s next government. A market player says, “Punters have never been wrong before. Dampened stock market spirits indicate the Mahayuti Alliance is unlikely to win notwithstanding sops galore unleashed by CM Eknath Shinde.” Differing with market pundits, BJP says, “Markets crashed after Foreign Portfolio Investors withdrew Rs 1.25 lakh crore in October (out of total Rs 71 lakh crore total stock investments in India) seeking better pastures after China announced stimulus. FPIs sold Rs 8700 crore stocks in April, Rs 25,600 crore in May then bought Rs 26,600 crore worth in June, Rs 32, 400 crore in July, Rs 7300 crore in August and Rs 57,700 crore in September before the big sell off in October. Already overleveraged NSE slumped, the subdued corporate sector quarterly results after much hype triggered a profit-booking mindset among investors.” Donald Trump’s ascendancy as the next U.S. president (previous tenure witnessed negative bias towards precious metals) bodes badly setting price corrections of gold and silver even as the U.S. dollar firms up, adding to Indian stock market woes. The BJP leader adds, “Maharashtra contributes around 14% to India’s GDP but even when MVA ruled for 2.5 years Modi-nomics ensured high buoyancy on Indian bourses despite stalling of bullet train project, Rs 14,000 crore cost escalation of Metro project.” The market punter, however, cites India’s financial capital Mumbai in Maharashtra that ensures most Indian business gravitates around the state while explaining the gloomy market mood over MVA’s likely win. November 23 will reveal the truth when the political bets are finally called out.
In a massive setback to AAP, Delhi’s transport minister and Jat leader Kailash Gahlot resigned from the party, citing “grave challenges” and “awkward” controversies in a letter to AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal months ahead of Delhi Assembly polls. He has joined the BJP. Gahlot’s exit is well timed in the sense that it comes days before Maharashtra goes to polls. AAP, an INDIA Bloc partner that has no stake in the state polls. But it must be said Gahlot’s exit was something that was in the works for some time now. It is believed that the seeds of discord between Gahlot and the AAP leadership were sown on August 15 over unfurling the national flag during the Delhi Govt’s I-Day celebrations. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, who was in jail on charges linked to the alleged liquor policy scam, had wanted Education Minister Atishi to unfurl the flag. Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena however felt Gahlot was more suitable for the job as he held the Home Department. Meanwhile, Kejriwal indicated that Gahlot had quit as he was under pressure from the ED and IT. In his resignation letter, Gahlot pointed to how “Political ambitions have overtaken our commitment towards people, leaving many promises unfulfilled”. In an apparent swipe at Kejriwal, he referred to “many embarrassing and awkward controversies like the “Sheeshmahal” — a term used by the BJP to refer to the CM’s residence renovated during Kejriwal’s term costing the exchequer Rs 45 crore.
A major controversy has erupted in Tollywood as over 233 directors from films, TV and independent media have filed a defamation suit against Swarup Biswas, president of the Federation of Cine Technicians and Workers of Eastern India. The Rs 23-crore lawsuit follows Biswas’s contentious remarks alleging rampant sexual harassment in the film industry, with 60% of complaints purportedly against directors and producer-directors. The hearing will take place on January 10. Swarup, the younger brother of Aroop Biswas, Bengal’s Power and Housing Minister and a close aide of chief minister Mamata Banerjee, finds himself at the centre of an unprecedented protest by Tollywood’s creative community. This is, perhaps, the first time that Tollywood has publicly challenged the Federation. Directors and producers have also criticized what they call “red-tapism” and “arbitrary demands” imposed by the Federation, including its control over unit sizes, pay scales, working hours, and technician selection. At the Eastern India Motion Picture Association’s (EIMPA) recent AGM, Swarup Biswas proposed that producers deposit Rs 5 lakh each as security to ensure timely technician payments, citing Rs 50 lakh in pending dues. Producers have outright rejected the demand, questioning the Federation’s accountability and EIMPA’s silence on the matter. Veteran actor-director Aparna Sen has publicly questioned Swarup Biswas’s credentials, asking for proof of his contributions to the industry. Biswas holds an assistant director’s card, which is reportedly issued only to those involved in at least two films. Actor-politician Roopa Ganguly also criticized the Federation, accusing it of politicizing the industry and questioning why filmmakers often seek the CM’s intervention during crises.
If rising onion prices decided the election outcome in many states some decades ago, falling soybean prices could impact the outcome in around 70 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, representing two ends of the political spectrum, are found promising farmers of much higher rates, but only after they are elected on 20 November. The sensitive constituencies are spread in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, where cotton and soybean are the main cash crops. The current market rate of Rs 4000 per quintal is unacceptable to the growers though they have no choice but to sell the produce as it can’t be stored for long. The MSP is Rs 4800 but not enough stocks are lifted by the machinery. The ruling saffron alliance has been promising better tariffs. The government hiked the soybean import duty in a bid to jack up the prices but the hike was of only around Rs 400, still leaving a gap of the same amount. Sensing the distress and the government’s inability to make any major announcement, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised Rs 6000 per quintal of the legume. To go a step further, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has pledged to pay Rs 7000. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also joined the chorus. The two regions had by and large supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha election. Hence, Mahayuti leaders are wary of saying anything that can dampen their prospects.
Are the re-runs slowly becoming a revenue model both for producers and exhibitors who have been grappling to bring back the audiences to cinema halls? Diwali turned out to be decent but then again we are gone back to re-release of films. Shah Rukh Khan’s Veer Zara re-release has been appreciated. Rakesh Roshan plans a re-release of Karan Arjun with a huge number of screens after 30 years of its release. This again has Shah Rukh Khan and Salman Khan coming together for the first time on screen. SRK’s Kal Ho Naa Ho and Pardes too are re-releasing in cinemas. Those in the trade feel that re-release of Tumbbad, Rehna Hai Tere Dil Mein and Laila Majnu have given courage to producers to cash on re-runs. The re-runs have stirred both excitement and curiosity. Traditionally, re-releases were reserved for timeless classics, but now more recent films are being revived, prompting questions: Is this trend purely nostalgic, or is there a deeper strategy at play? According to Trade Analyst Saurabh Varma, the re-release phenomenon is benefiting the cinema industry in multiple ways. For producers, re-releasing films is a cost-effective option. The marketing and distribution expenses are far lower than for new releases. Re-releases tap into the large fan bases of iconic films, giving long-time fans a chance to relive their favourite stories on the big screen. Furthermore, these revivals provide a unique opportunity for younger viewers who may have missed these films during their initial release. The combination of nostalgia and iconic music resonates deeply with audiences.
Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera who attempted a word-play on PM Narendra Modi’s middle name was arrested on his way to Raipur at Delhi Airport. The Delhi Police asked him to de-board and detained him upon receiving complaints from Assam Police. He was released on interim bail by Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud. “We have protected you but there has to be some level of discourse,” said Justice Chandrachud hearing the Congress petition against cases registered in Uttar Pradesh and Assam. The main nub of the Congress plea was that many FIRs had been registered against Khera in Assam and UP for insulting the PM in his Press Conference on February 17 in Mumbai. A complaint was lodged in Lucknow which was converted into an FIR. Another FIR was registered at Varanasi. While his lawyer wanted clubbing of the FIRs across states and did not plead for its quashing at this stage, the government counsel submitted that the expression used by Khera was not “unintentional and was deliberate”. She submitted that the “derogatory remark was made to incite disaffection against the PM. After all he is the duly elected Prime Minister of the country.” In a mischievous word-play on PM Modi’s name while demanding a JPC probe into the Adani-Hindenburg row, Khera said, “If Atal Bihari Vajpayee could form a JPC, then what problem does Narendra Gautam Das…sorry Damodardas…Modi have?” appearing to confirm the middle name with a colleague. He had apologised shortly thereafter.
Congress leader CR Kesavan, great grandson of India’s first Governor-General, C Rajagopalachari, resigned from the party on the eve of the AICC session beginning at Raipur. In a letter addressed to party president Mallikarjun Kharge, Kesavan stated that he no longer sees “any vestiges of the values” that made him join the Congress after leaving a successful career abroad and working for two decades with the party. Tamil Nadu Congress leaders viewed Kesavan exit as more about himself than the Congress; it was his disappointment over not getting a Rajya Sabha nomination as P Chidambaram was elected with support of the DMK. “I can no longer in good conscience say that I concur with what the party presently stands for..This is why I had recently declined an organisational responsibility at the national level and also refrained from participating in the Bharat Jodo Yatra.” He acknowledged it was time “for him to chart a new path”. At the same time, his utterances post exit leave very little doubt where he could be headed. “The values which I worked for have changed. When Droupadi Murmu ji’s nomination was announced, a senior working committee member of the party said she represents an evil philosophy, another party member said no country should get a President like this. It is disheartening I felt. I didn’t belong here anymore.”
Even as various disclosures are rocking the polity in Maharashtra, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is haunted by some unidentified elements which are projecting one party leader after another as the next possible chief minister of the state. Fearing an avoidable sticky situation, NCP MP Supriya Sule, only child of party supremo Sharad Pawar, was livid as her image was flashed on a flex board outside the NCP office in south Mumbai. It was hastily removed but only adding to the mystery shrouding the identity of the ‘well-wisher’. Supriya demanded immediate action against the mystery man by the police. First, it was NCP Maharashtra president Jayant Patil and he was followed by Ajit Pawar on flex boards. The flex on her said, “Supriya Sule, first woman CM of Maharashtra.” She demanded that the identity of the flex displayer should be established. When the flex about Patil as the next CM was put up, it was brushed aside as a misplaced birthday wish. However, within days, Ajit’s name was flashed. Even before the party had recovered, Supriya’s name has been propagated. In a bid to quell the sensation, Ajit had reiterated that there was no competition between Supriya and him. But she has taken the matter gravely, indicating that she will pursue it.
Gayathri Raguramm, who was suspended by Tamil Nadu BJP Chief K Annamalai for defying party discipline in the now infamous TiruchI Siva /Daisy scandal is on a mission revenge even as she quit the primary membership of the BJP. Who is Gayathri Raguramm, you may ask as she is not as well bespoke as Khushboo, who is now firmly embedded in BJP after her carousel stays in other parties. Gayathri, a middling success as actor and dance director, quickly made a name and profile for herself in the party hierarchy. She was made the BJP coordinator for Indian diaspora. Articulate and aggressive, she found Annamalai, the rock of challenge, alleging that he hurt her by defaming her character after her tirade in the Tiruchi Siva incident. She called on VCK Thirumavalavan on February 21, saying she found him fair and gracious in his political stance, and that he did not prejudge her quitting the BJP under controversy. Thiruma is known as a prickly critic of the BJP. Gayathri will also meet the other enfant terrible of TN’s tinder box politics, actor-director-orator-feared political baiter — NaamThamizhar Katchi Chief, Seeman. Gayathri is busy in her plans to make Annamalai see red. ”Better to have an enemy who slaps you in the face than a friend who stabs you in the back”. Clearly, hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.
The Bengaluru-based FreshToHome now has the financial backing of Amazon. Through its India-focused Smbhav Venture Fund, Amazon has made $104 mn series D funding. The 2015 incubated FreshToHome sells fresh fish and meat to consumers in South Asia and Middle East. FreshToHome would be a right fit for Amazon, which of late has expanded to the grocery and fresh category leveraging on its logistics infrastructure in South Asia. During its first phase of funding two years back, FreshToHome, raised $121 mn from Investment of Corporation of Dubai, IronPillar, Ascent Capital and US Government’s DFC. FreshToHome is one of the largest players in the $ 100 billion Indian fish and meat market. The size of the market indicates that India is not just a vegetarian country. FreshToHome plans to change the existing market set-up, run on age-old systems. The company proposes to bring in better efficiency by first streamlining the sourcing infrastructure of meat and fish. This will be backed by improved quality of produce and delivery time by using its own processing plants and vast supply chain network. “Customers ordering fish from Delhi to Dubai on a Monday, get their purchases delivered the latest by the next day,” says Shan Kadavil, co-founder and CEO of FreshToHome. The company today serves over 4,000 fishers and farmers and millions of customers in over 160 cities in India and UAE.
On February 20 this year, the West Bengal State Assembly passed the resolution against the attempts to divide Bengal by voice vote. This move clearly indicates that the ruling Trinamool Congress government has found itself trapped in the mire of separate statehood demands by the Tribals of North Bengal and citizenship status for the Hindu refugees of South Bengal. At a time when West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is countering BJP’s move of implementing Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in Bengal, she is also hounded by the demands of separate statehoods out of North Bengal such as Greater Cooch Behar for Rajbanshis and Gorkhaland for the Gorkhas. While, Gorkha Janmukti Morcha president Bimal Gurung constituted Bharatiya Gorkhaland Sangharsha Samiti committee to lead their demand for a separate Gorkhaland state, Rajbanshis leader Ananta Maharaj, head of the Greater Cooch Behar Peoples’ Association, has also demanded a separate state of Cooch Behar. Interestingly, Matuas, lower caste Hindu refugees living in districts of North and South 24 Parganas and Nadia are hopeful about their citizenship through the implementation of CAA. Moreover, State BJP leadership had assured the Matua community that the Centre is committed to implementing the CAA and also luring the Rajbanshis and Koch, with the assurance of converting North Bengal into a Union Territory.
TRENDS & VIEWS
Editor’s Note: Big Punch In Small Pack
It is the Third Anniversary of Short Post and as a news media startup launched during the Covid-19 pandemic it certainly feels better than good to find ourselves where we are today. Here, I must cite the unstinted support of our seasoned contributors, all senior editors in the country, who brought a great degree of maturity and sagacity to the Short Post newsroom. But for them, our tagline “Authentic Gossip”, an Oxymoron, would not have matured viably. Our user numbers may be small but our stories have created the desired impact among people who matter — decision makers and influencers. We offer a big punch in a small pack and Short Post with its 225-word stories has been punching above its weight category. Having posted close to 3,000 stories in the last 36 months, Short Post, I feel, is an idea whose time has come.
And this is vindicated by our two marquee advertisers – IDFC FIRST Bank and ICICI Lombard. Both believed in our story and have supported us from Day one. A big thank you to both.
If you look at the media landscape – print, TV and digital — it is a mixed bag. There are job losses as some outfits have closed down while a lucky few were bailed out by large corporate houses. Yes, there is a lot of action in the digital space. However, the entry of corporate houses has raised the question of independence of news media outfits. Sadly, there are just a handful of independent media outfits in the country that are highly respected for their neutrality. At Short Post, our credo is not to take sides, prejudge issues or be biased but, informing readers of behind-the-scenes happenings. In essence, Short Post strives to be a neutral editorial platform — neither anti-establishment nor pro-establishment.
As I said last year, disruptions in the media world are moving at a fast and furious pace. Technology is playing a very big role in how content is generated and consumed. But, we are neither alarmed nor perturbed as it is all a part of the evolution process. What gives us comfort is that AI is unable to create original gossipy content. And that is the news arena where we have achieved a distinction.