Two-Phase Bengal Polls: Advantage TMC or BJP?

West Bengal’s upcoming Assembly election will be held in two phases, dividing the state into contrasting political zones, with data from the 2021 Assembly polls and 2024 Lok Sabha segment mapping indicating the battle for power will unfold differently across the two regions. The first phase, scheduled for April 23, covers 152 constituencies across 16 districts, including North Bengal, the western belts, and coastal Purba Medinipur. A retrospective mapping of the 2021 results suggests a competitive landscape where the TMC held 92 seats against the BJP’s 59. While the BJP previously capitalised on anti-incumbency here, 2024 Parliamentary data shows a tighter race; the TMC secured a 52.6% vote share, the BJP 39.5%, and the Congress-Left alliance 7.9%. With an average victory margin of just 9.89%, this zone remains highly volatile. Social demographics add further complexity. Of the 39 constituencies with minority populations exceeding 40%, the TMC’s 2021 clean sweep faced fragmentation in 2024, with the TMC leading in 21 segments, the Congress-Left in 11, and the BJP in seven. Furthermore, voter list adjudication poses a mathematical threat: in 48% of these seats, voters under adjudication outnumber the 2024 victory margins. On April 29, the battle shifts to 142 seats in the South Bengal heartland, encompassing Kolkata and the 24 Parganas. This remains a formidable TMC stronghold; the party won 123 seats here in 2021 and maintained an 80.3% lead in 2024 segments with a wide 15.05% average margin. Interestingly, this region shows high voter deletion rates, averaging 12.7% in TMC-won seats. As the BJP’s strongest areas vote first, the TMC may benefit from a schedule that allows it to consolidate momentum toward its core base in the final.