The SIR Effect In Bengal: Will It Be Advantage TMC Or BJP?

The BJP has identified 58 Assembly constituencies in West Bengal where it believes a swing of 1.92 lakh votes could change election outcomes. The strategy is based on an internal analysis of vote margins and voter list revisions. According to party sources, the analysis includes constituency-wise data on the vote gap between the TMC and BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, along with the impact of the SIR on electoral rolls. Professional survey agencies prepared the report. In these 58 constituencies, the total vote margin between TMC and BJP in 2024 was slightly over 3.8 lakh. The BJP estimates that shifting 1.92 lakh votes in its favour could overturn results. This requires an average swing of about 3,310 votes per constituency. Party leaders, however, said it is difficult to ensure that the entire shift comes from TMC voters. After the SIR process, about 91 lakh names were removed from the voter list. With an average turnout of 80%, analysts estimate that around 73 lakh votes may not be cast. The BJP assessment indicates that a larger share of this reduction could affect TMC’s vote base. The identified constituencies are mainly in Malda, Murshidabad, Howrah, Hooghly, North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas and Kolkata. These areas were strongholds of TMC in previous elections. The report also notes that TMC has large vote margins in 114 constituencies, mostly minority-dominated, which increase vote share but do not add seats. The BJP has 35 such constituencies. In 2024, the “ineffective margin” was about 55.8 lakh votes for TMC and 11.9 lakh for BJP. A similar pattern existed in the 2021 Assembly elections.