Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has moved into his official residence, Varsha, as a caring father and mature politician. The shifting took place on the auspicious occasion of Akshaya Tritiya (30 April) though there was a personal angle, too. Fadnavis and wife Amruta were overjoyed to announce that their only child, Divija, had cleared the 10th Board examination by scoring 92.60%. The entry into Varsha was done without any fanfare; a simple pooja was performed. Till now, Fadnavis had ignored constant criticism that he was not moving into Varsha due to superstition. Those making irresponsible statements included Republican leader Prakash Ambedkar and Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut. In fact, Raut had gone to the extent of alleging that Fadnavis was refusing to occupy Varsha since the horns of a buffalo sacrificed at the Kamakhya temple in Guwahati had been buried in its grounds. Raut had said that this was done to ensure that the occupant living in Varsha should not continue in office for long. Raut’s charge was directed at former CM Eknath Shinde, who had taken the Sena rebel MLAs to Guwahati and formed his government in Maharashtra in 2022. During the Guwahati stay, Shinde supporters had gone to the Goddess temple for pooja. Fadanvis had ignored such crass assaults and had declared in February that he had postponed the move into Varsha till his daughter’s annual examination in response to her wish. Recently, he has stopped reacting to Raut’s daily verbal attacks, too.

The Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) has sent out a clear message that it is not with Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) or any elements which are using the issue of compulsion of Marathi language. The timing of a statement made by senior BJP leader Kripa Shankar Singh in this regard is interpreted as an unambiguous signal by the BJP in view of the new political formations likely to take place in the state with an eye on the coming local body elections.  The statement is also viewed against the backdrop of the possibility of MNS and Shiv Sena (UBT) joining hands for the BMC election. MNS leader Raj Thackeray had triggered the agitation for Marathi some time ago though he stopped it after some ugly incidents took place against Hindi speaking sections. Moreover, a few Gujarati residents, also, had to face ire of the aggrieved people on the issue of Marathi and vegetarianism. As the atmosphere was vitiated, the BJP has taken a firm stand, especially as the assembly election is approaching in Bihar. Making the position clear, Singh recalled his long association with Mumbai and said, “Hindi is my mother and Marathi is my Mausi (aunt).” Taking a swipe at those using the language issue for political purposes, Singh lamented that such elements reared their heads when their political existence was threatened. He emphasised that the north Indians in Maharashtra were not merely a workforce but had been contributing towards the state’s development as well.

The game of one-upmanship between Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde and Maharashtra’s chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, that followed in the relief operations for the tourists affected by the Pahalgam terrorist attack, exposed the friction within Mahayuti government. Shinde duplicated the efforts of the Fadnavis government with his parallel visits and relief flights for the stranded tourists there. While Shinde was meeting tourists at Pahalgam, donating to the local Muslim victim and even holding parleys with Jammu and Kashmir’s deputy chief minister, Fadnavis was restricted to paying condolence visits to Pahalgam victim families at Pune. This wasn’t Shinde’s first attempt at duplication of governance; earlier too he had set up parallel medical relief funds in tandem with Fadnavis’ official ones. Shinde may have been cornered within Mahayuti with many of his decisions as CM either being withdrawn, stayed, kept in abeyance or simply rejected but he is not lying quiet and instead seizing the moment like he did at Pahalgam. He is also trying to assert himself as a Hindutva mascot and trying to usurp the advantage enjoyed by the Thackeray cousins even if they were to come together. Shinde’s attempt to carve out his own distinct identity in Fadnavis’ term, is clearly not going down with the man and the party at the helm. The BJP is clearly upset with Shinde’s attempt to hog the credit and not let the landslide majority government have its way. Shinde may be indispensable to the BJP in the run-up to the BMC polls to woo the Marathi manoos vote bank but remains to be seen how this open friction between Shinde and Fadnavis may play out for the Mahayuti in the forthcoming local elections.

Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has undertaken a sustained plan to rejuvenate the organisation buffeted by continuous desertions by loyal Sainiks over the past two years. Initially, the campaign will focus on Mumbai since the existence of the Sena under him will depend upon who controls the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the richest civic body in India. The Sena (UBT) has been heading the BMC since 1985. On the other hand, the ruling BJP is equally determined to wrest the control from Uddhav, who is its enemy number one at present. Deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde has been supplementing the BJP’s planning to end the hold of Uddhav in a bid to avenge the treatment he received when he was with him till 2022. As larger planning, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray is periodically wooed to help the saffron alliance to decimate Uddhav. Assessing the situation, Uddhav has decided to activate his lieutenants to launch efforts to inject  new life into the organisation whose soul is the Sainik at the local level. According to the data compiled by Uddhav, there are over 50000 Sainiks and Shakha Pramukhs who are loyal to him and eager to reestablish the Sena’s hold in Mumbai. Over the past few weeks, he has been liaising with the rank and file so as to give shape to the strategy he will adopt for the BMC polls, likely to take place after the monsoon this year.

The Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi is facing a humiliation, this time over the Waqf Amendment Act as Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Uddhav Thackeray has refused to move the Supreme Court over the matter. MVA was already facing tensions since veteran leader Sharad Pawar had stayed over in Mumbai when the Rajya Sabha was voting on the Bill to amend the Waqf Act. When quizzed about his absence at such a crucial juncture, his followers had merely said that his appointments in Mumbai had been decided much earlier. Although both the Sena (UBT) and Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party had opposed the Bill in the Lok Sabha, their sudden change of heart when voting started in the RS had sent out confusing signals. For a long time, no single party or leader can say with certainty what policy Pawar will adopt for a particular matter. Pawar goes ahead with what he feels needs to be done. For instance, his cosy relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi has remained a matter of political intrigue. Similarly, his free access to industrialist Gautam Adani has rubbed the Congress party the wrong way since its leader Rahul Gandhi does not spare a single opportunity to abuse Adani and Ambani groups. Despite this, Pawar is unfazed. It was owing to his unambiguous stand that no Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) could be set up when there was a furore against Adani over the Hindenburg disclosures. Pawar’s stance about the Waqf Act is just one more example and MVA will have to gulp it without complaining.

The Devendra Fadnavis 2.0 government got its way around in week one of its first budget session. Despite having to face the ignominy of resignation of a cabinet minister within three months of return to power, the Mahayuti government managed to get nothing on record on Dhananjay Munde’s resignation row. While the CM announced Munde’s resignation to media persons and not inside the assembly, Munde himself claimed in a tweet that he was quitting due to health reasons. This ensured that none of the gory details of the cruel murder of the Beed sarpanch Santosh Deshmukh, as captured in viral videos, that had triggered the resignation, entered the assembly records. The state also refused to put up a formal statement about it in the legislative assembly despite Opposition members moving a breach of privilege motion. Maha Vikas Aghadi  failed to get the Leader of the Opposition’s post when it chose to nominate an aggressive Bhaskar Jadhav over a fresher face like Aaditya Thackeray.  Similarly, to offset a slow growth rate of 7.3% as projected in the Economic Survey Report-2024-25, the Mahayuti government decided not to hike monthly stipend for women from Rs 1500 to Rs 2100 despite having promised in its election manifesto. Though it decided to continue with its populist schemes for now due to immense public pressure, the beneficiaries are being trimmed to ensure minimal burden on the state exchequer that is already reeling under a debt of over Rs 7.8 lakh crore. Strong laws against love jihad, religious conversions, social misinformation and even drunken unruly behaviour is also on the cards. The DF 2.0 government marks a term of strong aggressive, authoritarian governance with no room for Opposition sentiments. 

Another twist has been added to the present political suspense in Maharashtra by none other than chief minister Devendra Fadanvis. Reiterating that politics can take any turn, he told an interviewer that his relations with his bete noir Sharad Pawar or Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray were never sour. At the same time, he has discounted the possibility of teaming up with either of them “in view of the present political atmosphere.” Fadnavis said that had Uddhav accepted his telephone call then (in 2019), no rift between his Sena and the BJP would have occurred. Despite this, now both talk with each other, Fadnavis clarified. His assertion is considered meaningful as there are persistent media reports that the BJP is determined to rein in both deputy CMs, Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. Cancellation of certain appointments made by Shinde and scrapping of some tenders finalised in the past have led to the discussion that Fadnavis is determined to root out corruption. Against this backdrop, Fadnavis said his mission was to bring about a transformation, not take revenge against anyone. The developments over the past five years have taught him that any type of political alliance is possible, he retorted, without blaming Sharad Pawar or Uddhav directly. In Maharashtra politics, political opponents were treated as enemies earlier but he had made it clear as soon as he took over as CM that his goal was development and not settling political scores.  

The verbal war between the two Shiv Sena factions – Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray — is once again on with the prospects of the local body elections in Maharashtra. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear a petition in the matter next week, again kindling the hopes that it will show a green signal for holding the civic elections, overdue for more than two years. As the exodus out of the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray continues towards the faction under deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde, the prospect of the election has prompted many hopefuls to change colour. Taking note of the damaging potential of such an eventuality, Uddhav has launched a scathing attack against his opponents. “Those taking a dip in the Ganga at Maha Kumbh are not going to be exonerated of their sin of taking tons of money,” he told his party workers on the occasion of the Marathi Divas. Hitting back, Shinde has challenged Uddhav to explain why he or Congress leader Rahul Gandhi did not visit the Kumbh if they claim that they are Hindus, too. The sudden tilt by Uddhav towards Hindutva is seen as a strategy to win back the vote bank, once a monopoly of the undivided Sena. Interestingly, the Congress and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar have maintained a stoic silence over the Maha Kumbh debate, isolating Uddhav in a way. The political churning in the state will become fierce after the Apex Court verdict is handed down.

Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) founder Sharad Pawar’s intimate dialogue with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Marathi Sahitya Sammelan in New Delhi a couple of days ago has once again miffed the principal players in Maharashtra politics. Although their cosy relationship is well-known, the Congress and the Shiv Sena (UBT) have been finding it difficult to decipher the hidden message, if any, behind the conversation between the two giants. Obviously rattled by the development, Sena (UBT) Sanjay Raut has wondered how Modi could sit beside a leader whom the PM had described as ‘a wandering spirit’ during the state assembly electioneering in November last. The Congress has preferred to maintain silence as its state leaders are aware of Pawar’s connection with Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge and hence don’t wish to invite the ire of the high command by rubbing Pawar the wrong way. But Pawar’s detractors allege that Modi is appeasing Pawar since his NCP has eight Lok Sabha members and the ruling BJP at the Centre needs as much support as possible on the floor of the house. Pawar’s daughter and party MP Supirya Sule has defended the meeting, saying that both leaders are political masters and know what they are doing. Of late, Pawar has been pursuing his own policies, not caring about the possible fallout from the Congress or the Sena (UBT), the two Maha Vikas Aghadi partners. The Pawar-Modi dialogue has once again kicked off a guessing game. 

The moment Shiv Sena (UBT) dismissed its spokesman Kishore Tiwari from the responsibility, he launched a tirade against the manner in which the party is being run. While going soft on leader Uddhav Thackeray, he has held some top leaders responsible for the Sena’s debacle.  The Sena is receiving one jolt after another almost daily due to desertions by its loyal workers and Tiwari’s unbridled outburst is bound to make its challenge graver for the coming local body elections. While Uddhav has tried to inject vigour into the rank and file by declaring his resolve to administer one mega blow to the ruling saffron alliance, Tiwari’s disclosures will force the party to defend its decisions, especially of distributing tickets for the 2024 assembly election. Tiwari has alleged that many of the tickets were ‘sold’ and certain party leaders had amassed a fortune. His main target is party MP Sanjay Raut, whose continuous controversial statements Tiwari has found very objectionable and damaging. Tiwari has criticized other leaders like Subhash Desai, Vinayak Raut and Milind Narvekar, who are closest to Uddhav. He told a news channel that he has revealed just one percent and will expose more and more misdeeds of the party and its leaders. Tiwari has been the Sena protagonist on various Marathi and national news channels. He has vowed to continue to work for the Sena ‘until I am expelled from the party.’ 

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray’s son Amit has given indications that the organisation can change its course. At a party meet in Mumbai, Amit has dismissed his father’s claim that EVMs were responsible for his party’s defeat in the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections. Raj had only recently doubted the election results by alleging that EVMs were manipulated to engineer the BJP’s victory. In a bold departure, Amit has told the party leaders that it will be futile to blame the EVMs and that a thorough introspective has been called for. Amit’s candid admission has assumed significance against the backdrop of local body elections, including in Mumbai, lurking on the horizon. Amit reportedly said in that meeting that notwithstanding his father’s observation about the EVMs, he was of the opinion that there were other reasons for the sorry performance. Amit had lost the assembly election from Dadar-Mahim constituency, the Shiv Sena’s birthplace in 1966. Amit’s outspoken stand and chief minister Devendra Fadnavis calling on Raj Thackeray just before the MNS meet are hardly a pleasant coincidence. Moreover, certain BJP leaders announcing that the party could go alone in the Mumbai civic election have been considered as a warning for the Sena led by deputy chief ministers Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. An additional factor is the nervousness pervading the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray amidst reports that many of its prominent leaders are on way out. 

Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut’s spree of making audacious allegations one after another is reaching new heights now, with his latest shocking claim. According to Raut, Maharashtra chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is not shifting to the CM’s official residence ‘Varsha’ since during previous CM Eknath Shinde’s tenure, a he-buffalo’s horns had been interred in the premises of the bungalow. The horns were that of an animal sacrificed at Guwahati’s famous Kamakhya temple, Raut had said, adding that the ritual was performed to ensure that no Shinde successor should continue in CM office for long. Fadnavis has ridiculed the slur. He has clarified that he would continue at ‘Sagar’ bungalow as his only daughter’s 10th standard examination is due soon and that she has requested him to stay there till it is over. The family will shift afterwards, he has clarified. Deputy CM Ajit Pawar has lambasted Raut for the insinuation, telling him that it was none of the MP’s business to ask such a question. Raut had also asserted that Fadnavis was not shifting to Varsha for fear of such a black magic. Raut’s reference to Kamakhya temple relates to the Shiv Sena’s split and a majority of Sena MLAs aligning with Shinde at Guwahati, where they went for a pooja at the temple. Raut is in the news for making a claim in the Rajya Sabha about the number of casualties at the ongoing Maha Kumbh at Prayagraj.

The attempt to push the ruling into a corner by the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi and the saffron alliance’s retaliation is now dominating Maharashtra politics. The Modi government at the Centre has caught the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray in a cleft stick by conferring the prestigious Padma Bhushan title on the late Manohar Joshi, who was a Lok Sabha speaker and the state chief minister. Although Joshi occupied such high posts, he was constantly humiliated by the supporters of Uddhav during his twilight years. The NDA government has thus created a quaint situation for Uddhav since he can’t either welcome the decision to decorate Joshi nor oppose it. Taking advantage of the situation, the Sena and the Congress have started a discussion of having a third deputy chief minister in Maharashtra. Although there is no basis for such a possibility since the state already has two deputy CMs, it is becoming embarrassing for the Mahayuti to discount the rumours since it could mean an indirect reflection on two of its leaders, Girish Mahajan of the BJP and Uday Samant of the Sena led by deputy CM Eknath Shinde. but it is generally felt that this is only an attempt to spread disinformation. The political game has gained significance as Sena MP Sanjay Raut has emphatically claimed that Samant has 20 party MLAs behind him. On the other hand, Samant has reiterated his total commitment to Shinde’s leadership. The Opposition has been planning to spread such confusing information to further deepen discontent in the Mahayuti quarters, it is felt.

Even as the dust is settling over the internecine acrimony about the allocation of portfolios in the ruling Mahayuti alliance, a new wave of one-upmanship has erupted about the appointment of guardian ministers. As there are more than two or three claimants to grab the powerful position, the competition is intense. Moreover, as there are 36 districts in Maharashtra while the number of ministers is 41, it is obvious that some of them will be ejected out of the race. Another major issue of contention is the guardianship of Pune and Thane districts, which are politically very important for every party. In Pune, deputy CM Ajit Pawar was the guardian minister under the government of Eknath Shinde till recently. Now, the BJP and the Shiv Sena (Shinde) feel it is their turn to occupy the position. Similarly, in Thane, deputy CM Shinde wishes to become the district guardian minister. However, the BJP is keen to obtain the turn this time. Senior BJP minister Ganesh Naik and Shinde have been at loggerheads for long and the tussle between the two seems unavoidable. In neighbouring Raigad district, NCP(Ajit) boss Sunil Tatkare’s daughter Aditi is trying to retain the responsibility though Shinde’s supporter Bharat Gogawale is determined to wrest it from her. Sambhaji Nagar, another sensitive district, is claimed by Shinde’s soldier Sanjay Shirsat while BJP’s powerful minister Atul Save, too, is considered a strong claimant. Chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is now busy untangling the rider.  

The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has started preparing for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election, expected to take place early next year. This will be the fight for political survival for Thackeray because the Sena has been in power in India’s richest civic body since 1985. Taking stock of the situation, other political parties, too, have begun their planning. The picture this time will be fundamentally different since the BJP has emerged as the largest party in the state after the assembly election. Its estrangement with the Sena (UBT), which split in 2022 owing to Eknath Shinde’s decision to walk out of it, will be a major factor in the coming election in which the Congress will be an insignificant player, given its lacklustre performance in Mumbai and the state as a whole. Equally exasperating is the condition of the state Congress committee as its president Nana Patole is perceived as an ineffective leader by the rank and file. The BMC’s last election saw the Sena winning 84 seats in the 227-member house while the BJP had captured 82. Owing to the alliance ethics, the BJP had made no effort to bag the mayoralty of the financial capital of India. However, the BJP is not prepared to take any chance this time and a decision about its Mumbai president is likely to be taken soon. Sitting chief Ashish Shelar is among the hopefuls though his inclusion in the council of ministers could be a decisive factor in the final choice.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) , under siege from Sharad Pawar and UBT MPs, MLAs and Opposition political formations across India, is set to increase its numbers in Lok Sabha from 240 to 260 odd soon ending its need for outside support in Parliament for much longer. BJP’s senior functionary told shortpost.in, “Not only Maharashtra (UBT and Sharad Pawar’s party), but also from Congress in Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and even south India MPs are doing office rounds of BJP’s senior leadership. Like Maharashtra, they desire to become deserving partners within NDA’s fold.” Meanwhile, Maharashtra politics witnesses a turnaround of BJP’s political gambit that groomed Shiv Sena (DCM) Eknath Shinde as CM for nearly 2.5 years, empowered him to consolidate leadership of Shiv Sena party, unleash slew of development projects in state. Hereon, BJP’s emphasis will be upon Ajit Pawar as politics will revolve around whether the Congress is able to counter him in Western Maharashtra, Marathwada regions of the state. Pawar will be groomed, empowered since he holds no political animosity towards BJP and is keenly interested in big ticket infrastructure projects while possessing requisite political calibre, ability to perform well while keeping Congress in check. While uncle Pawar effectively controlled Congress’ politics based out of Maharashtra, nephew Ajit has no such pre-occupations. Praful Patel will sync in as Union Minister with industry related portfolio, not Sunetra Pawar, while Union government portfolios are up for grabs by newbie incumbent MPs into BJP that seeks to up its own tally. With the senior Pawar set to be 90 before next Maha elections are due, vacant Union portfolios are proving difficult to ignore for his own flock and several more.

Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray’s plans to attend the Winter Session of the Maharashtra legislature beginning from December 16 at Nagpur will prove to be a game changer, his followers feel. Thackeray’s continued distance from the state legislative council proceedings over the past year are discussed by his party members in hushed tones since the aggressive direction needed to corner the BJP-led three-party government somehow lacks as far as his Sena is concerned. Council’s leader of the Opposition Ambadas Danve (of the Sena UBT) lacks the image and articulation which are vital for any LoP to humble the ruling side. Now that the new government led by Devendra Fadnavis has decided to appoint former CM Eknath Shinde as leader of the upper house, Danve’s limitations will be felt more vividly. Thackeray’s intermittent presence in the council ever since he resigned as chief minister in 2022 has been noted more due to his statements outside the house. He has hardly made any worthwhile speech on the floor. Therefore, his plans to remain present for the Winter Session have revived the hopes of his followers, who wish to witness his attacks against the BJP and the Sena led by Shinde. It is being recalled that Thackeray did not attend the recent three-day session of the legislature in Mumbai, held after the assembly elections. According to present indications, Thackeray will reach Nagpur well in time for the week-long session, which will be a stormy affair, focussing on settling political scores.

There seems to be no end to turbulent times in Maharashtra’s politics despite the people voting in the Mahayuti alliance with a thumping majority. Despite the landslide victory, thanks to cracks developed, the next few years promise some unpredictable times thanks to the BJP misjudging the nature of Eknath Shinde. Three years back when the BJP catapulted Shinde to the top job in state, he was expected to work in the background like he had always done in the united Shiv Sena. His ascendance as CM saw him assume a larger than life image thanks to his penchant to meeting people day and night right till the crack of dawn. His generosity in doling out public funds to the public, has reaped in historical and record breaking results. The BJP is discovering the hard way that Shinde is no pushover and they are having a tough time handling him. From demanding the CM’s seat promised to him to refusing to play deputy to his erstwhile deputy Devendra Fadnavis to insisting on having the powerful home portfolio, Shinde is a tough nut to crack despite Ajit Pawar’s tame surrender giving the BJP a strong upper hand on the negotiating table. A sulking Shinde would validate the BJP’s use and throw policy. Not something they want at a time when it needs him to decimate Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena in their Mumbai bastion. Shinde’s reluctance to play second fiddle to Fadnavis or any fresh CM’s face doesn’t promise a smooth term here on, in the state.

Disregarding the voting pattern in the Lok Sabha election earlier this year, the BJP has won 14 seats in the Maharashtra assembly election in Muslim-dominated constituencies. This score is more remarkable since the Vote Jihad campaign was a talking point during the electioneering for the fiercely fought battle for the reins of the state. Interestingly, the BJP did not have a single Muslim candidate. Still, all its winning candidates in such constituencies have been elected with huge margins. In the Lok Sabha election, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) was leading in 155 assembly segments against Mahayuti 125.  Mahayuti, the ruling saffron alliance, bagged 21 seats out of the 38 segments identified as having a majority Muslim population. This fact has astounded the self-appointed analysts, most of whom had predicted a re-run of the Lok Sabha pattern. The opposition MVA could capture 14 seats in these areas with the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray winning six, followed by the Congress which managed to win five though the minority vote is considered its vote bank. The NCP under Sharad Pawar has won three seats whereas the Samajwadi Party has got two and the AIMIM just one. According to the last census of 2011, the Muslim population in the state was over 11.50% or around 1.30 crore. At least six of the assembly constituencies house more than 20% Muslim voters. All these seats have voted in favour of the BJP. This election has revealed several intriguing facts, defying expert clichés based on the statistics of castes, sub-castes and religion.

A clean sweep for the BJP could pave the way for the crucial Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls in the state. Elections for India’s richest civic body and politically significant Mumbai city had been kept in abeyance for over two years to prevent Uddhav Thackeray from getting the upper hand in Maharashtra. The BMC, with a budget of over Rs 52,000 crore, had been UBT’s major source of its political and financial clout for decades, making him a dominating force in Mumbai. The Sena had been accusing the BJP of being too scared to take polls in Mumbai. But after a sharp drubbing of Uddhav in the state polls, the gates could now be open for the BMC polls along with the various pending local body polls. The BJP, it seems has got into the act. It’s launching a membership drive for the party, clearly to wrest control of the BMC, which has a huge corpus of over Rs 80,000 crore. The BJP has other factors working for it too. Though the Shiv Sena won the highest number of elected corporators with 84 seats, the BJP was quite close to it with 82 seats in 2017. Mumbai’s sharp demographics shift — with the Maharashtrians being reduced to less than 39% of the population of Mumbai, could work to the advantage of the BJP. After this assembly poll drubbing, it remains to be seen how the politically and financially weakened Thackeray’s Shiv Sena rises up to fight against the BJP in the forthcoming city elections, its last bastion left.

The next legislative assembly in Maharashtra may have to function without a recognised leader of the opposition (LoP) unless the ruling Mahayuti decides to grant the status to one of the Maha Vikas Aghadi partners as a political favour to the other side. This situation has arisen since none of the opposition parties has been able to secure the minimum 29 seats in the lower house required to gain the status of the LoP, as is required by rules and precedents. The piquant legislative logjam is created as the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition has won a landslide victory, bagging 233 seats in the house of 288 seats. On the opposition side, the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has obtained just 20 out of 95 seats it contested. The Congress being the largest partner of the MVA had contested 103 seats but won only 16. Veteran leader Sharad Pawar’s NCP is the worst sufferer with barely 10 seats. In the past, various small opposition parties would form a group that would be recognised by the speaker to grant LoP status. Such an understanding took place in Maharashtra in 1986 when socialists Mrinal Gore and Nihal Ahmed and PWP’s Datta Patil were made LoP though they had very few members each. But such a gesture was not shown by the Modi government in the Lok Sabha in 2014 and 2019. Hence what happens in Maharashtra will depend upon both sides.

For the first time perhaps, the judiciary has been held responsible for an electoral rout. Shiv Sena (UBT) Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut has been blaming the former Chief Justice of India DY Chandrachud for his party’s electoral defeat. The Sena spokesman has also attacked the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh for the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s decimation in the Maharashtra assembly election in which the opposition has been reduced to a minuscule presence. In the 288 member house, 236 members will belong to the treasury (BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP) benches. Enraged at the poll outcome, Raut retorted while referring to the various petitions pending in the Supreme Court in regard to proceedings against certain MLAs in Maharashtra that Chandrachud had emboldened the defectors by not deciding on the disqualification pleas against them. Raut said the former CJI’s name will be written in black ink in India’s history. Taking a swipe at the RSS, he said the Sangh played a key role in the campaign. The poisonous campaign it conducted hit us adversely. Harping upon the BJP’s so-called Gujarat connection, he advised that the swearing-in ceremony of the new government should be held in the neighbouring state. “If it is held at Shivaji Park, it will be an insult to Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj and if held at Wankhede Stadium, it will be a disrespect to the memory of the 105 martyrs who laid down their lives for the demand for Samyukta Maharashtra movement,” he quipped. Sena’s mouthpiece Saamna also has lashed at the thumping majority of Mahayuti. It is edited by Sanjay Raut.

The absence of Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar and other senior NCP leaders from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election rally at Chhatrapati Shivaji Park in Dadar, Mumbai on November 14 strengthened speculation that NCP could possibly be an unreliable link in Mahayuti. This notwithstanding the fact that the deputy CM had attended a Modi rally in Pune barely two days earlier.  Ajit Pawar’s party is a crucial partner in the ruling alliance, alongside Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and the BJP. But then NCP candidates Sana Malik, Nawab Malik, and Zeeshan Siddique were also notably absent from the event, which featured leaders from the Shinde Sena and the Republican Party of India (RPI) led by Ramdas Athawale. While the rally was meant to highlight the coalition’s solidarity, reports suggest that NCP leaders are upset over the BJP’s batenge toh katenge campaign. BJP sources said despite Ajit Pawar’s unease with the BJP’s aggressive Hindutva agenda, it is likely that he will stay on the side “which benefits him”.  That is he could walk to any side which will make him the CM or as Nawab Malik told Times Now “Ajit Pawar will be king maker”. BJP sources said UP CM Yogi who coined the slogan has been much in demand among party candidates. “We have been forced to cancel meetings of top leaders to accommodate Yogiji”, said a party manager. As for contrary assertions by Ashok Chavan and Pankaja Munde on batenge toh katenge, these are being viewed more as a desire to project themselves than pose any serious ideological counter to the main party discourse.

Maharashtra has locked-in six political parties fighting the mother of all poll battles. Upbeat NDA (BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP) — despite initial assessments indicating alliance bagging below 130 seats — hopes orchestrated triangular fights will register 140 wins. BJP wants 105 like 2019, and expects a two-digit final outcome like Gujarat (99 MLAs won). Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, BJP’s CM face, discerned his party’s 148 candidates as also for Shiv Sena/NCP led by CM Eknath Shinde/Ajit Pawar respectively, even supplanted BJP candidates on alliance party tickets (Shiv Sena:9, NCP:5). Congress leads MVA bloc fighting over 100 seats, UBT Sena fights 90 plus (below 126 in 2019). Sharad Pawar’s NCP shortlisted 35 candidates, then handled a problem of plenty after 85 bounty, finding 50 more candidates post haste. Uddhav Thackeray discerned winning candidates to rectify Lok Sabha debacle (nine MPs from 21 contested seats). Independents, (over 25) from MVA ranks while BJP mostly quelled rebellion, expected to play king makers in Maharashtra government formation post November 23. BJP’s Borivali MLA Sunil Rane rues double bad luck being dumped in favour of Sandeep Upadhyay even as CM Shinde fielded reluctant MP Milind Deora from Worli constituency. Samajwadi Party’s Mankhurd MLA Abu Azmi worries over minority reports swaying towards NCP’s Nawab Malik while BJP’s ‘Bullet’ Patil hopes to gain from “Chanakya Niti” by Fadnavis. Navi Mumbai strongman Ganesh Naik’s son Sandeep quit BJP after senior leader Manda Mhatre got the party ticket making independents unofficial third front in polls.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena leader Raj Thackeray has confidently predicted that Devendra Fadnavis will return as the next chief minister of the state. Raj made this statement while making a candid disclosure about his son Amit’s candidature from Dadar-Mahim assembly constituency in Mumbai. Raj has stated unambiguously that he had supported the decision taken by Amit to contest from the constituency, considered the stronghold of both factions of the Shiv Sena and MNS. As sitting MLA Sada Sarvankar of the Sena (Shinde) has refused to withdraw, there will be a triangular fight among the three Senas, a novel feature of the coming election. The fight will be live since the BJP had publicly appealed to Sarvankar and Shinde to yield. After their refusal, city BJP president Ashish Shelar has pledged the party’s support to Amit. A recent angle to the jumble is Raj’s fulsome praise for Fadnavis. In a TV interview, Raj said, “Fadnavis possesses the best political and technical sense. His combination with Eknath Shinde is excellent. After the election, Mahayuti will return to power with Fadnavis as chief minister.” The announcement by Uddhav Thackeray that he will not hold a campaign rally in the constituency though he has a candidate there and Raj’s silence about Aaditya Thackeray during the MNS rally in Worli are contributing to the intrigue. The intensity will increase as Raj has castigated cousin Uddhav for the present mess in the state politics due to defectors. 

The ruling Mahayuti (BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (Cong-Shiv Sena(UBT)-NCP(SP) have decided to keep both former chief ministers in Maharashtra on hold as a cautionary strategy, indicating that they will open their cards at an opportune time. Both hopefuls, Devendra Fadnavis and Uddhav Thackeray, also have adopted a similar stance though Uddhav had earlier tried to prevail upon the Congress and senior leader Sharad Pawar to project him as the next CM. However, both MVA partners had refused to concede. Now, Pawar has announced that his party will support the leader chosen by the largest of the three parties after the assembly election. According to available statistics, the Congress party is contesting the largest number of seats, 102, leaving 96 for the Shiv Sena under Uddhav and 87 for the NCP led by Pawar. In the Lok Sabha, the Congress strike rate was the most impressive. Hence, the Congress has always maintained its claim as the eldest brother in the MVA formation. Similarly, Fadnavis has been lauded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union home minister Amit Shah over the past two days. Despite this, Shah has declared that a decision about the next Maharashtra CM will be taken after the outcome is declared. The BJP is contesting 152 seats in the 288 member assembly and over a dozen of its leaders are contesting on behalf of the Sena (Shinde) or NCP (Ajit Pawar). Therefore, its prospects are considered better this time, after the Lok Sabha drubbing.

Former BJP MP Poonam Mahajan’s implication that a conspiracy was behind her father Pramod Mahajan’s murder has stirred the polity. The serious statement made before private Marathi TV channels has come at a time when her party is fighting a pitched battle with the Maha Vikas Aghadi to retain power in Maharashtra. BJP boss Pramod Mahajan was killed by his brother Pravin almost two decades ago. Poonam had maintained silence about the tragedy all these years. She was elected to the Lok Sabha in 2014 and 2019 and was expected to run for a third term. Hence her disclosure at this juncture is interpreted in different ways but none in favour of the saffron party. Poonam’s assertion that her family relations with Uddhav Thackeray have remained unaffected has added to the speculation since all top BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, regard the Shiv Sena leader as Enemy No 1. Poonam’s charge that she was refused nomination this time for the Lok Sabha election since her work was disliked by ‘someone in Maharashtra’ has deepened the suspense created on the eve of Modi’s and Union home minister Amit Shah’s visit to the  state for campaigning for Mahayuti candidates. Her target is deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, according to BJP insiders. Poonam’s veiled warning that she will write to the Union home ministry to throw light on Pramod’s demise has only added to the BJP’s discomfiture.

The Congress party in Maharashtra is engaged in fire fighting over many thorny issues, among them the minority representation grievance since a sentiment is spreading that the party leadership has yielded too much to the Shiv Sena (UBT) in ticket distribution. In Mumbai, Thane and Konkan, the party has hardly a token presence among the 75 seats of the region. Here, the fight will be mainly between the two Sena factions, the other led by chief minister Eknath Shinde. Moreover, murmurs are heard that many loyal veterans and most Muslims aspirants are handed out a raw deal in ticket distribution. The decision of senior leader Ravi Raja to don the saffron garb has shaken the organization since Mumbai Congress president Varsha Gaikwad, MP, is under attack for this drastic step. She has been censured for getting a nomination for her sister. Among the vocal dissenters is Sufiyan Vanoo, a former Wadala corporator. He has questioned the party’s decision to hand over several Muslim-dominated assembly seats to the Sena (UBT). The areas he has named include Govandi, Anushakti Nagar, Versova, Bandra (East), Byculla, Kurla and Kalina. It has been alleged that there is a plan to minimize the Congress presence in Mumbai and adjoining areas. Another factor that is haunting the Congress is that just two Marathi-speaking candidates figure in the party’s list for Mumbai. It is argued that the aspirations of the areas having substantial Marathi population have been overlooked by the leaders. Efforts to mollify the disturbed elements have intensified over the weekend.

Maharashtra’s state assembly elections will witness, for the first time, a third front of politicians predominantly comprising rebels and independent candidates in the fray after failing to secure official nominations from their respective parties. This third front of rebels will effectively ensure a triangular fight in around 25 assembly segments for Mahayuti and a higher number for Maha Vikas Aghadi and likely to impact government formation, post polls. The BJP indirectly settled the issue of its Chief Ministerial candidate taking over helm of Maharashtra’s political affairs post state assemblies by effectively fielding candidates in close to 170 constituencies. While 148 official BJP contestants sport the lotus, nine party MLA aspirants wield the bow-and-arrow (Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena) while another five sync time with the clock symbol (Ajit Pawar’s NCP). Another four smaller allies include RPI that fielded a BJP leader as its only candidate in Maharashtra. Ajit Pawar’s national spokesperson Brijmohan Srivastav rationalizes, says, “If 25 constituencies out of 288 witness rebel candidates, it is not a dire situation. Most will likely withdraw from the fray by November 4. Internal shopping of candidates within Mahayuti is based on winnability, exposing our sharp political coordination.” BJP’s Mahendra Jain says, “Our party always benefitted by triangular fighting in Maharashtra, securing 122 MLAs in 2014 and 105 MLAs in 2019. The large number of rebels, independent candidates has effectively created a similar circumstance for ensuing state assemblies even as 80% of our own rebels will be satiated enough to withdraw.”

The lure of number nine (9) is manifesting in different forms for the coming Maharashtra assembly election though the attraction is at least four decades old. At present, the BJP, the Shiv Sena (Shinde) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena have chosen number nine for their initial lists of candidates. The BJP has declared 99 nominees so far while the Sena (Shinde) and MNS have announced 45 names each, achieving a total of nine. But the association of number nine and politics in the state goes back to the first Sena-BJP alliance formed by Balasaheb Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan. The division of the 288 constituencies was originally to be 168 (SS) and 120 (BJP). However, at Balasaheb’s suggestion, it was changed to 171 and 117, so as to make the total nine. Incidentally, Raj Thackeray has stuck to the numeral. His party was formed on the 9th, his cars bear the same number and all his important events are connected with nine. A little known fact is that even Union minister Nitin Gadkari chooses the number for his cars, which bear the numerals 27, 2727 or 81 on their number plates. Chief minister Eknath Shinde, too, seems a firm believer in the power of nine. The number of his car is 567, making a total of nine. In numerology, it is called the Cardinal Number, and is held to be very auspicious. How nine benefits which candidate, which party and which formation will become known on 23 November.

In an interesting political twist, Milind Deora, a two time Lok Sabha MP from South Mumbai and presently Rajya Sabha MP from Shiv Sena (Shinde) will be facing off with GenNext Shiv Sena (UBT ) leader Aaditya Thackeray in Worli assembly constituency. Milind is of course no stranger to the area as during the Lok Sabha polls, he was tasked to handle  Worli and had managed to restrict  the UBT lead in the assembly segment to 6, 500 votes. The idea of fielding a strong candidate is to take on Aaditya Thackeray and pin down the young UBT leader in his constituency who is seeking a second term. The  decision to field Deora reportedly took place at NDA leaders meeting in Delhi attended by Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde. It may be recalled that the UBT has cornered CM Shinde by fielding Kedar Dighe, nephew of his mentor Anand  Dighe in his  assembly constituency . Looks like CM Shinde could be getting even with Thackerays. Acknowledging that he would be in the fray, Milind posted a cryptic “CM @mieknathshinde ji believes that justice for #Worli & Worlikars is long overdue. Together, we’re paving the way forward & will share our vision soon.It’s Worli NOW!”  In the initial rounds, Shaina NC’s name was doing the rounds for the seat. But the battle for Worli now has only got bigger and better.

The once ruling Shiv Sena’s split has redrawn the political calculations in Maharashtra. Their impact will be tested in the coming assembly election as over two dozen constituencies will witness a pitched battle between the two Sena factions. The outcome can be decisive as the balance of power will depend on the ultimate political formation, which will happen by consigning the loyalty factor to the dustbin. Over the past few days, defections have been galore and every hour, turncoats declare their commitment for the party they join by deserting their original outfit. With the proliferation of candidates, each constituency’s fate is uncertain. The atmosphere is surcharged as the average Shiv Sena worker, belonging to either faction, is facing a dilemma of sorts. The prominent constituencies include chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Kopri-Pachpakhadi seat in Thane. The rival Sena (UBT) has fielded Kedar Dighe, who is a nephew of late Anand Dighe, the mentor of Shinde. Still, the most interesting fight will be in Dadar-Mahim since there will be three candidates, all of them loyal to the memory of Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray. His son Uddhav has selected Mahesh Sawant, who will take on sitting Sena MLA (Shinde) Sada Sarvankar and MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s son Amit. Firebrand leader Narayan Rane’s son Nilesh of Sena (Shinde) will be locked in a fight with Sena (UBT) candidate Vaibhav Naik, a traditional foe of the Rane family. In Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar district, at least half a dozen fights between the two factions will take place. Strangely, several of the candidates from both sides were in other parties till yesterday. When it became evident that their party had overlooked their claim, they changed hats and obtained candidacy, too. The constituencies concerned are Sawantwadi, Kudal, Ratnagiri, Dapoli, Patan, Sangola, Paranda, Karjat, Malegaon, Nandgaon, Vaijapur, Sillod, Kalmanuri, Ramtek, Mehkar, Pachora, Ovla-Majivada, Magathane, Kurla, Mahad, Radhanaari and...

Normally, questions about EVMs (electronic voting machines) and the Election Commission are raised after elections.  However, the question of EVM was raised again soon after the EC declared the poll schedules for the Maharashtra and Jharkhand assembly elections. Shiv Sena (Uddhav) leader Sanjay Raut said opposition parties do not trust the working of EVMs, and what happened in Haryana can be repeated in Maharashtra too. Congress leader Rashid Alvi alleged that EVMs could be manipulated just like Hezbollah pagers, which Israel hacked to carry out blasts in Lebanon. Rubbishing doubts, CEC Rajiv Kumar said, “Our EVMs are more robust than Hezbollah’s pagers, and they are 100% foolproof. EVMs cannot be hacked. Pagers are connected devices, but EVMs are not. “Those who are again questioning EVMs will have to answer many questions. Were EVMs working perfectly during the Lok Sabha polls but were hacked during the Haryana polls? Did EVMs work perfectly in Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh but were tampered with in MP and Chhattisgarh? Who will believe such allegations? An electronic voting machine is just like a calculator, and it has no connection to the Internet via Bluetooth or any remote device. The battery usage of an EVM is written on the form when the EVM is packed and sealed. Candidates or their agents countersign it.  Secondly, in a big country like India, where thousands of EVMs are used, and lakhs of government employees are involved in the electoral process, how can EVMs be hacked? And if some people tamper with the EVMs, how can the matter remain a secret?  Victories and defeats occur during elections, but blaming the defeat on the EC or raising questions about EVM tampering is childish.

Veteran leader Sharad Pawar has once again shown his indomitable durability by immersing fully in the preparation for the coming Maharashtra assembly election. Busy from dawn till late in the night, Pawar has been receiving delegations and hopefuls throughout the day, besides holding strategy sessions. As usual, his team ensures that all such goings on are widely covered by the media, electronic and the print. Over the past two days, Pawar has been concentrating on the Marathwada region, once loyal to him. Presently, his NCP faction has been left with just a couple of MLAs from the backward region while half a dozen had walked out with his nephew, Ajit Pawar. Some of them have already called on the NCP founder in a bid to stage a homecoming. Similar is the scenario in Pune district, till recently under the influence of Ajit Pawar. The recent Lok Sabha rout of the NCP(Ajit) has changed the power equation for both, the uncle and the nephew. Over the past few days, many of Ajit’s followers have openly said they are seeking Sharad Pawar’s blessings for a comeback. The BJP, too, is roasted by Pawar’s magnetism. Several of its workers at different levels are desirous of switching over for a possible win. Political observers, however, are perplexed that the Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde has remained impervious to Pawar’s charm in this season of great political churning.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) of the three main opposition parties in Maharashtra is in search of a formidable candidate who can take on chief minister Eknath Shinde in his home constituency of Kopari-Pachpakhadi in Thane city. Shinde has been representing this assembly seat since it was created in 2009. This being a traditional Shiv Sena stronghold, a keen fight will be seen for the first time in many years here. Under the unified Sena, Thane had been a virtual monopoly of the party. However, Shinde broke away from the parent party in 2022, taking along many legislators and corporators. This will be the first trial of strength between the two Sena’s with the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena standing by Shinde, making his position stronger. At the same time, the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has proved again and again over the past two years that its popularity is not reduced much in the Mumbai-Thane belt, which controls nearly 75 seats in the 288-member assembly. Uddhav and his followers have vowed to make Shinde bite the dust, calling him a traitor. In retaliation, Shinde and his mentor late Anand Dighe are now projected as protectors of Hindutva. The ‘Laadki Bahin’ scheme launched by Shinde is proving extremely popular and is expected to reap bonus for himself and the Mahayuti alliance. Realising the possibility, the MVA has decided to mount a challenge for Shinde on his home turf.

The Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray has been placed in a firmer position to demand most assembly seats in Mumbai following its youth wing’s spectacular victory in the Mumbai University senate election held a couple of days ago. The outcome has enhanced Aaditya’s clout and his party’s prospects for Mumbai. Over the years, the Sena has been a dominant political player in Mumbai, relegating the BJP to a secondary position when both were together. Since the Sena split in 2022, it was felt that the party will be weakened considerably. However, Uddhav has established that its popularity is hardly affected. The Sena won the legislative council election from the Mumbai Graduates’ constituency with a solid margin earlier this year. The win in the senate election has endorsed the fact that the Maharashtra chief minister Eknath Shinde’s Sena faction has failed to make its mark in Mumbai in spite of the fact that several MLAs and corporators had followed Shinde out of the party. The three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi swept the Lok Sabha election in Mumbai and Maharashtra, sending alarm signals for the saffron Mahayuti alliance. The senate election was a fight between the Sena (UBT) and the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad, under the Sangh Parivar. Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirmal Sena’s youth wing and other student organisations had kept away from the prestigious election.

The ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi in Maharashtra are facing the same challenge: increasing pressure from their supporters as finalization of the candidates for the 288-member state legislative assembly is taking its own time. The uneasiness is becoming vocal as the Election Commission has announced its visit to Mumbai early next week. This is the first time in the state’s history that there will be six major parties in the electoral arena in the state. The two Shiv Sena factions, the two NCP blocs, the BJP and the Congress are all trying to emerge as the single largest party in this crucial election, which will determine the political future of several prominent leaders. Given the Lok Sabha results, the MVA is confident of grabbing power while the Mahayuti has been showering one benefit after another on various sections of the population to stage a comeback. Political observers recall how MVA had taken a lead over the saffron alliance in the case of declaring LS candidates. According to present indications, the BJP is preparing to fight 160 seats, leaving about 130 for the two partners and the supporters from the smaller parties. On the other hand, chief minister Eknath Shinde’s various statements are interpreted to mean that the election will take place between 10 and 20 November.

The Maharashtra BJP’s insistence to contest at least 160 seats in the 288-member legislative assembly election has posed a challenge for the Shiv Sena led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by Deputy CM Aji Pawar since both will have to be content with just about 60 seats for each. The seat sharing talks within the ruling Mahayuti are at an advanced turn though the BJP’s position as the largest partner has been accepted by both. However, the tacit tussle to occupy the second position is now becoming apparent as Ajit Pawar has made it clear that his party will need to contest over 60 seats. Both parties have almost an equal strength in the outgoing house. The Mahayuti is more or less agreed on around a hundred seats but the substantial chunk is still under negotiations. While Shinde has established his own channel with New Delhi, Ajit’s public postures are becoming a matter of speculation. His latest displeasure with the purported anti-minority utterances by some Sena-BJP leaders and Shinde’s implied support of those leaders, though in a different context, has caused some discomfort in the Mahayuti camp. Ajit and Shinde are thus facing a daunting challenge since they will have to persuade their followers to accept the seat sharing formula. It is likely to be finalised during Union home minister Amit Shah’s scheduled visit to the state next week.

Top Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat has been admonished by the Shiv Sena (UBT) for his unambiguous declaration that the next Maharashtra chief minister will be from his party. Sena MP Sanjay Raut has reminded Thorat that the Congress could win so many Lok Sabha seats in the state because of the Sena. The three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is presently passing through a critical stage of seat sharing. Expectedly, the main partners – the Congress, the Sena and the NCP led by Sharad Pawar – are vying for a larger share of the seats. Moreover, Pawar has already announced that his party is not in the race for the CM’s post. Thus, he has adroitly pushed the ball in the Sena’s court since Raut had been projecting his leader Uddhav Thackeray as the next CM. Till now, the Congress had maintained that a decision in this regard would be taken after the assembly election results are out. Hence, the announcement by Thorat, has jolted the Sena to indicate that it is also in the fray for the coveted post, earlier occupied by Uddhav. To reaffirm, Raut has remarked that though the MVA’s confidence has boosted, the Congress won’t think of fighting the election on its own strength. “If some elements are over-confident of their clout, the picture will be clear soon,” Raut said. The statements by Thorat and Raut are interpreted as a hidden power struggle in MVA though both have claimed that all will be well in the end.

A free burqa distribution programme organised by a Eknath Shinde camp legislator highlighted the uneasiness between the ruling alliance partners particularly over the Muslim vote bank. While the BJP did express its displeasure about such acts as “appeasement politics”, they clearly had to leave it at that. The Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena neither publicly disowned nor criticised the drive, thus recognising the need to woo core voters. The MLA concerned, Yamini Jadhav recently lost from the prominent Mumbai South Parliamentary constituency by over 50,000 votes mainly due to the fact that the Muslim voters there chose to throw their weight behind Uddhav’s nominee, Arvind Sawant. The fact that 50% of voters in her Mazgaon constituency are Muslims, could not have been lost on her as she faces her electorate yet again to reclaim her MLA seat. All this, while the prominent alliance partner, the BJP continues to adopt an aggressive pro-Hindu pitch with Nitesh Rane’s diatribe against Muslims being the order of the day. The BJP has also been critical of Uddhav’s recent success in garnering the support of the Muslim vote bank terming it as a result of not being sincere to core Hindu ideology.  The third partner, Ajit Pawar, has already clarified that he would continue to be secular, in spite of his alliance with the BJP. Pawar has gone ahead and almost-declared the candidatures in key Muslim-dominated seats like Bandra East (Zeeshan Siddiqi) and Anushakti Nagar (Nawab Malik’s daughter Sana Malik) ignoring the BJP.

Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has miffed his supporters by declaring that he has never hankered for the chief ministership. In the same breath, he has expressed determination to wrest power in the coming election. Conversing at a rally of an Old Pension Scheme organisation, Uddhav said, “You, the people of Maharashtra are my power, which none can take away.” Uddhav performed darshan of Sai Baba at Shirdi and later addressed the OPS meet at Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar. His observation is viewed in the context of the persistent efforts of his supporters to project him as the next CM of the state. The campaign had dampened some time ago as veteran NCP leader Sharad Pawar and state Congress president Nana Patole had publicly clarified that this issue will be discussed only after the assembly election results are out. Uddhav has refreshed the issue by giving an emotional touch to the meeting by saying that he had been invited to speak with its members though he had no power, no office now. “But you are my power. Nobody can retire me from this position. I don’t care for power, I am concerned for your future,” he said. Nonetheless, he assured the audience that he will wrest power and dispense justice to them and the people of Maharashtra. Uddhav has thus dwelt on both possibilities, although not in explicit terms. His statement, hence, can be interpreted in any way but will make his supporters think before taking any stand.

Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has finally rung down the curtains on the speculation surrounding the prestigious Baramati assembly constituency by giving out ample indications that he will contest the seat this time, too. Ajit took this decision after he was advised that his shaky stance could cost the NCP(A) heavily. Ajit has also scored over the two other Mahayuti partners – the BJP and the Shiv Sena (Shinde) — by finalising nearly two dozen assembly candidates. Both these parties are still to decide on their nominees. Internecine power struggle and past rivalry with each other are hindering the list finalisation. The picture on the Maha Vikas Aghadi is a little different. None of the MVA partners has so far declared any name of a prospective candidate. Against this backdrop, Ajit has overtaken all other parties in the state. Equally important is his willingness to enter the fray after dilly-dallying for a long time. The other names in Ajit’s list include former home minister Dilip Walse Patil, senior leader Chhagan Bhujbal and the legislative assembly’s deputy speaker Narahari Zirwal. Not to take a chance, Ajit’s team started combing the Baramati constituency much earlier. The contest will be a fierce one if Ajit’s nephew Yugendra Pawar decides to take on his uncle. Yugendra is groomed by NCP founder Sharad Pawar ever since Ajit broke away from the parent party. Whatever the outcome, the seat will remain with the Pawar family, which has been holding it for the past 55 years.

Nationalist Congress Party president Sharad Pawar’s choice for the next Maharashtra CM will not be Uddhav Thackeray. This sensational claim made by DCM Devendra Fadnavis has further dented the campaign started by the Shiv Sena leader’s followers to project him as the future chief minister. Pawar and state Congress president Nana Patole have publicly negated Uddhav’s demand to declare the name of the next Maha Vikas Aghadi CM in advance. Both have reiterated that a decision in this regard will be taken at an appropriate time. The Sena (UBT) has maintained a stoic silence ever since on this issue, unlike its practice to react to any development, big or small, instantly. Using the opportunity of his interview taken by a private news channel, Fadnavis ridiculed the efforts being made to project Uddhav as the unanimous MVA leader in Maharashtra. Fadnavis did not mention any other name in this connection but left his remark hanging, so that enough suspense pervades the opposition camp. Pawar himself has added to the guessing game. Though he had claimed that his party would not be in the race for the post, he has now added another rider by stating that the party with the largest number of MLAs will stand the chance. Fadnavis rubbed Uddhav the wrong way by remarking that the three-day recent visit of the Sena leader to Delhi had failed to obtain Sonia Gandhi’s backing to his name for chief ministership. Uddhav’s backlash is awaited.

The Maharashtra poll battle has reached criticality of purpose with both the MVA (Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, UBT Sena) and Mahayuti (BJP, Shiv Sena, NCP) alliances fine tuning their seat sharing plans. The BJP has resorted to a party cadre-based assessment over professional surveys this time, and feels assured of breaching the 100 benchmark for a record third consecutive time. The party intends to field at least 135 candidates but is negotiating hard to increase this number to 160, the Shiv Sena led by Shinde may have to accept around 70 seats while the NCP will need to be satisfied with 45 odd seats in its kitty. On the other hand, the Congress, using a survey, has pitched for 160 seats while expecting Sharad Pawar to accept around 70 seats with the remainder for Uddhav Thackeray. UBT spokesman MP Sanjay Raut had stated earlier that the party was scrutinizing 126 assembly constituencies followed by his Chief Thackeray calling upon the Congress high command in Delhi that has apparently come to naught. Thackeray may still bag maximum seats in Mumbai and Thane. In the 2019 assembly elections the Sena that fought 126 seats, emerged victorious in 56 may likely feel slighted by Congress’ discrimination. CM Shinde also may demand a higher than 70 allocation for the assembly polls while Ajit Pawar eyes more in Western Maharashtra. Meanwhile, BJP in Delhi quietly celebrates its Rajya Sabha victories (11 out of 12 seats) and will improve its majority in the upper house of Parliament through four more President Draupadi Murmu nominated MPs soon. This political gambit was reported by the Short Post recently.

A purported internal survey carried out on behalf of the Congress party has reportedly forecast that the party will be the largest partner of the three-party Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the coming assembly election. This will lead to a stronger bargaining position of the Congress when seat sharing equations are discussed. The survey, it is said, has predicted that the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray will be the smallest partner with just around 35 seats in the 288-member house. The NCP led by Sharad Pawar will get nearly 60 seats while the Congress will emerge as the major claimant with an estimated 85 seats. This calculation, if it materialises, will mean that the MVA will win 180 seats and will form the next government. Meanwhile, the race for the next CM of the state is already on the cards. Uddhav’s appeal to the other two partners to declare the name of the possible chief minister has been ignored by both. Pawar has made the scenario murkier by declaring that his party will not be interested in occupying the hot seat. This has boosted the Congress party’s morale since it could win the largest number of Lok Sabha seats from the state. The first likely obstacle to be overcome in the negotiations could be the seat sharing in Mumbai, where the Sena wants to contest 22 of the 36 seats from the metropolis. The two other parties are awaiting to open their cards.

Uddhav Thackeray’s insistence on declaring the CM’s candidate is not going well within his Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) partners. Uddhav’s Shiv Sena is insisting that the MVA finalise a CM face before polls. His logic — a similar strategy with his then alliance partner, the BJP, had backfired badly. This had led to coalition partners working against candidates of their own alliance partner, to bag the CM’s chair, he says. Clearly, the Congress, which netted the highest tally of 14 seats among their allies, in the recent Parliamentary polls, remains unimpressed. Then there is also the whispered rift between the Uddhav Sena and senior Pawar over the Adani issue, at play here.  Uddhav’s strong outbursts against favouritism in land allotments to the Adani group, across Mumbai City, for Dharavi redevelopment, has not gone down well with the Pawar, known to be close to the Adani group. Recently, Sharad Pawar made an unexplained visit to CM Eknath Shinde at his official residence, where Adani officials were believed to have made a PowerPoint Presentation ostensibly on the Dharavi issue. Uddhav is known to be friendly with the Mukesh Ambani family and his younger son Tejas Thackeray was seen dancing in the Ambani marriage function.  Not surprisingly, Uddhav Thackeray doesn’t want to take chances about who will get the CM’s post. 

Followers of deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar are livid at Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut for likening their leader to a pink chameleon. Raut made this comment at an election meeting of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Mumbai on Friday. Though the obvious reference was to Ajit’s decision to wear pink jackets following a PR firm’s advice, what Raut meant was the way the NCP leader had been changing his statements over the past few days. Ajit had expressed regrets in a channel interview just a couple of days ago for fielding his wife Sunetra against his cousin Supriya Sule in Baramati for the Lok Sabha election. His latest statement that he may not contest the assembly election himself from Baramati seat has miffed his party workers since the constituency has been loyal to him since the 1990s. Some of his close associates are reportedly in two minds about continuing with him. Launching a broadside against him, Raut said the pink colour never succeeds in politics. He gave the example of the rout of KCR’s Bharat Rasthra Samiti. Raut said, “Only the saffron or the tricolour succeed in politics.” By this, he indicated the party flags of the Congress and the Sena (UBT). Raut’s remarks evoked instant reactions. NCP(SP) emerging leader Yugendra Pawar made it clear that such criticism was not desirable. He reminded the Sena MP that Ajit Pawar was his paternal uncle after all.

Looks like none of the political coalitions in Maharashtra, be it the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) or Mahayuti, wants to face that prickly question. No one really wants more chaos than what is already playing out in Maharashtra politics and importantly no one wants to rock the boat of coalition politics. While Sanjay Raut fired the first salvo to raise the pitch for Uddhav Thackeray as CM candidate  followed by Uddhav taking to New Delhi with wife and son in tow, to meet the Congress leadership on this. The Congress though chose to ignore his bid, choosing to state that the party with the highest tally would get to hoist its CM. The NCP too has refused to get into this issue, instead pointing at how the ruling Mahayuti has failed to name its nominee for the top seat in state. Though the BJP has decided to go to polls under the leadership of Shiv Sena chief Eknath Shinde, its chief leader here, Devendra Fadnavis, expected to move to New Delhi to take over as the new party president. Fadnavis himself had mentioned that true to the new trend set by their party in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, pretty much anyone could become the CM here. The ambitious Ajit Pawar, did publicly voice how despite being senior to both Shinde and Fadnavis, he had missed out on the CM bus. While politically things continue to be vague about the face of the next CM, smaller leaders commanding much lesser legislator support numbers like Raj Thackeray (Maharashtra Navnirman Sena), Bachchu Kadu (Prahar Janshakti Party) and even Imtiaz Jaleel (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen) have got banners proclaiming them as future CM.

The Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections due in October/November 2024 has the BJP recalibrating its poll plans in the wake of the setback it suffered in the state at the recent hustings for the Lok Sabha. A revitalized and wiser BJP deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis is expected to stake a claim to contest 130 to 135 state assembly seats out of the 288 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. At the recently held party conclave in Pune last week the BJP’s face for Maharashtra, shedding his inaccessibility tag, exhorted party men to desire and deserve party candidatures for the state assemblies with the only proviso that they consciously refrain from indulging in controversial public speaking. “The BJP has always performed well when a triangular political fight took place in Maharashtra, as in 2014 and 2019 securing when it won 122 seats and 105 seats respectively. The party is backing up DCM Ajit Pawar wholeheartedly to ensure a repeat in their poll fortunes in the state of Maharashtra,” BJP’s Maharashtra Executive Committee member Mahendra Jain avers dismissing talks of imminent plans to eject the Maratha leader as just idle chatter. All the same, loud rumblings abound of possible plans by the prodigal nephew of Sharad Pawar to reinvent his political positioning in Maharashtra. The BJP’s desperation for Maharashtra is undeniable, considering it lost the state in 1999 under then PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure and again in 2019 under PM Modi, when the MVA alliance trumped BJP prospects in the state and, is leaving no stone unturned in its efforts to rule the state. The poll efforts of the BJP are easier said than done what with the tallest Maratha leader in Maharashtra, Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray of the original Shiv Sena busy garnering a double sympathy wave for their respective political formations once again in tandem with the Congress. Only time will tell for whom the political bells toll?

A verbal war has triggered between two Sena camps, both followers of Balasaheb Thackeray, over a movie sequel based on the life of fierce Shiv Sainik late Anand Dighe of Thane. The fuse for the skirmish was the show of the trailer held on the eve of Guru Purnima. Chief minister Eknath Shinde feels proud to call himself Dighe’s soldier. The first flick on Dighe was called Dharmveer. It had provided indication about two and a half years ago that Shinde was extremely unhappy in the then unified Sena. Soon thereafter, he walked out of the party along with over 40 of his followers to form the present Mahayuti government. Ever since, Shinde is the principal target of the Sena (UBT). Shinde’s close confidant and Thane’s MP Naresh Mhaske has lashed out at rival Sena spokesman Sanjay Raut, who immediately  raised doubts about the veracity of some portions of the sequel, named Dharmveer-2. Mhaske alleged that ‘Matoshri’ never liked Dighe’s popularity and in fact Uddhav had pressurised to cancel a condolence meet at Thane after Dighe’s demise. The trailer show was attended by deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis along with several BJP leaders. The Sena (UBT) is livid because of the Dighe movies. To sharpen the attack, Shinde’s followers have started saying that a third instalment, too, is being considered. The sequel will be screened for the public from August 9. 

The huge success scored in the Lok Sabha election in Uttar Pradesh has boosted the Samajwadi Party’s confidence so much that its leader Akhilesh Yadav has activated plans to storm Maharashtra as well. The arrival of over two dozen SP MPs in Mumbai over the weekend and their felicitation planned by state SP chief Abu Azmi, MLA, indicate Yadav’s resolve to demand a substantial number of seats for the coming assembly election in Maharashtra. Yadav was in Mumbai last week to attend the Ambani wedding. He interacted with various Maha Vikas Aghadi leaders and his own party workers to assess the situation in Maharashtra. In the first phase of his plan, the SP MPs will mobilise the large north Indian population in the state to create a vote bank. Thus, the MVA will henceforth be a four-party combine, consisting the Shiv Sena (UBT), the Congress, the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the SP. It will take on the four-party alliance consisting the BJP, the Sena (Shinde), the NCP(Ajit) and the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena led by Raj Thackeray. Once upon a time, the SP in the state had several prominent leaders in its fold. However, except for Azmi, most of them parted ways with it. Now, in the changed circumstance, new entrants are eager to join it and play a meaningful role in Maharashtra polity.