Sensex Or Gold: Which Will Hit The 1-Lakh Mark In 2025?

Gold is all about safety and it appears that presently the geo-political situation seems to be at status-quo with a possibility that things may improve. Customs duty is something which can spook prices but with the cut in duties earlier this year, even that event is currently ruled out. Rupee depreciation has happened over the last few months, but further sharp downside may be difficult. Sensex is a reflection of the economy and though we seem to be having a tough time it’s still at a level where we are better than most large economies. Other than crude oil and edible oil, we are a fairly self-consuming country. Markets have done well with the Sensex gaining about 10% in the year to hover around 78,000 points while gold rose by 22% to Rs 76,000. This includes the gains on account of the reduction in customs duty. Knowing our humongous capacity for buying and storing gold, to expect that prices would move by another 31% in calendar year 2025 and touch the Rs100,000 mark look most unlikely. In the same breath, expecting Sensex to move 26% and touch 100,000 points either is also tough. Foreign Portfolio Investment or FPI selling, valuations at elevated levels even though they have softened is still expecting too much. I believe the expectation that the race to touch 1 lakh for gold or 100,000 points for Sensex is unlikely to happen in the coming 12 months. Both gold and Sensex are more likely to touch the 1-lakh mark in the calendar year 2026. Is there a tilt towards one of the two? Yes. The shine and lure of gold is much more than equity even though over the last four years equity investors have grown over four times.