Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Will It Be A Fractured Mandate?

Broad hints of post-election realignments have raised fears that the new Maharashtra government formation will be a long drawn complicated one. Rapprochement vibes are already being noticed from both sides of the Pawar family. While Ajit Pawar swung into action to berate an indignant remark against his uncle Sharad Pawar, his confidants like Dilip Walse Patil and Nawab Malik have been dropping hints that their legislators could swing any ways post-results. The Sharad Pawar faction too seems to have thawed relations and preparing ground for readjustments attributing their partymen exits and party split to ED threats. While Supriya Sule has already stated that there is no familial rift with Ajit Pawar, Nawab Malik has been saying that Ajit Pawar’s support will be critical for any combination that seeks to form the next government. Amit Shah throwing in his weight behind Devendra Fadnavis, at this juncture marks the BJP’s need to consolidate its own vote share in the run up to a fractured verdict. Political scientists like Prof Suhas Palshikar have predicted that a large number of independent legislators could win this time around, adding to post-election instability. Since most of these MLA’s winning on the basis of local caste equations will have weak party affiliations, it makes them susceptible to swing in any direction. Drawing parallels to Maharashtra’s ‘moment of fragmentation’ in 1995 when over 30 plus rebels won elections, Palshikar feels the poll results are unlikely to settle the dust from a scenario emerging from splits, factions, new parties and fronts thus ensuring victory for those who can command less than a lakh votes.