Can BJP Pull Off A Bihar-Style Upset In West Bengal?

The BJP’s emphatic victory in Bihar has prompted the party leadership to project confidence about replicating the outcome in West Bengal in 2026. Yet, despite the celebratory rhetoric, the ground situation in Bengal presents a far more complex—and arguably unfavourable—terrain for the saffron party. Buoyed by Bihar, senior leaders such as Union ministers Giriraj Singh, Sukanta Majumdar, who was the former state president have asserted that the mandate reflects a decisive shift toward the BJP. Singh, who has previously had several direct confrontations with the TMC, stated unequivocally that with Bihar delivering its mandate, Bengal would be next, as the people of the state are growing increasingly dissatisfied with chief minister Mamata Banerjee. Majumder, meanwhile, likened the TMC regime to what he described as a shadow of the “jungle raj” associated with Lalu Prasad Yadav’s era. However, analysts argue that such comparisons reveal more political impatience than electoral realism. A section of political analysts pointed out that Bihar’s outcome was shaped by pro-incumbency and by the NDA’s existing administrative footing—advantages the BJP does not enjoy in Bengal. The TMC’s long tenure, rather than weakening it, has consolidated its organisational strength, particularly across the rural belt where nearly 70% of the state’s electorate resides. While the BJP has succeeded in capturing segments of the urban vote with its Hindutva messaging and pro-industry posture, it continues to lag the TMC’s 48% vote share by a significant margin. More critically, the party has yet to develop a robust grassroots network capable of countering the TMC’s deeply entrenched cadre structure built since 2011, when Mamata rode the Singur and Nandigram land movements to power.