Can A Minority Alliance Dent Mamata’s Most Reliable Vote Bank?

With Assembly elections around the corner, the idea of a minority-led alliance has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty for the West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and her party the Trinamool Congress (TMC). While there is little concrete evidence to suggest an imminent erosion of the TMC’s minority vote base, emerging formations and alliance talks could complicate electoral arithmetic in select pockets of the State. The most visible symbol of this mobilisation has emerged along National Highway 12 in Beldanga, Murshidabad district, where suspended TMC MLA Humayun Kabir has begun constructing a replica of the Babri Masjid. Kabir, who has floated the Janata Unnayan Party (JUP), has accused the TMC of pursuing policies harmful to minorities and is seeking to politically consolidate Muslim voters. Early January, Indian Secular Front (ISF) MLA Naushad Siddiqui called for a minority party alliance against TMC and BJP. The ISF, linked to the Furfura Sharif shrine in Hooghly, has held discussions with the JUP, alongside talks involving the SDPI, the political wing of the banned Popular Front of India. Muslims constitute about 27% of West Bengal’s population. Minority and women voters have been central to the TMC’s dominance since 2011. Minority leaders cite discontent over OBC list exclusions, Waqf law amendments, and the return of TMC MP Mausam Benazir Noor to the Congress in Malda. Yet, many Muslims continue to see Mamata as the most credible bulwark against the BJP, which is banking on minority vote fragmentation and Hindu consolidation. Kabir met CPI(M) State secretary Mohammed Salim in Kolkata to explore the possibility of contesting the elections together with the ISF. The meeting has sparked unease within sections of the CPI(M), particularly in refugee-dominated and urban areas of south Bengal. Some leaders fear that association with Babri Masjid symbolism could be electorally damaging.