Suspended TMC Leader Launches New Party, Threatening Mamata’s Muslim Vote Base

With the West Bengal Assembly elections just months away, veteran politician Humayun Kabir’s decision to launch his own outfit, Janata Unnayan Party and openly challenge chief minister Mamata Banerjee has added an unexpected twist to an already heated political season. Kabir announced that his party will contest 135 of Bengal’s 294 Assembly seats. There is speculation that he could split the Muslim votes in the state. If that happens, it could seriously hurt Didi’s Trinamool Congress party, which draws significant support from Bengal’s 27% Muslim population. The TMC has downplayed the move as a sideshow. The development has invited comparisons with Banerjee’s own break from the Congress in 1998, when she formed the Trinamool Congress, eventually ending the Left Front’s long rule. According to a section of political observers, Kabir’s situation is different as he does not command a mass following, nor have a statewide organisational structure or a clear ideological pitch that can cut across regions and communities. However, his move cannot be dismissed entirely since his criticism of the Trinamool’s leadership style — particularly its highly centralised decision-making — have quietly circulated within party ranks. By stepping out, Kabir has brought these murmurs into the open. From an electoral perspective, the immediate impact on the ruling party is likely to be limited as Trinamool remains firmly deep-rooted across most of the state. A section of party sources, however, feel that in tightly contested constituencies, even a marginal split in votes — especially among minorities — could tilt the balance. For the opposition, including the BJP, Kabir’s entry not only highlights cracks within the ruling camp but may also split the anti-Trinamool vote further.