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Increased voting by women and a comparatively lower turnout of the Muslims for the Maharashtra assembly elections are likely to be the two major factors which can tilt the outcome of the crucial battle that will conclude on Saturday evening. These two trends have been commented upon repeatedly by several analysts while making a comparison with the Lok Sabha election’s voting pattern. As the turnout for this election has been the highest at more than 66% over the past three decades, both sides are claiming that it will benefit their candidates. For instance, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has suggested that the Laadki Bahin Yojana was one reason for the handsome response of women, who would support the Mahayuti nominees. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) failed to gauge the potency of the scheme whereby eligible women receive Rs 1500 per month from the state. Both sides have promised to enhance the provision after watching the unprecedented welcome it has received. Similarly, the lack of enthusiasm of Muslim voters as compared with the Lok Sabha voting complexion has emerged as another important factor for the final outcome. At least a dozen Lok Sabha seats went to MVA owing to en bloc minority voting. In Dhule, while the other five assembly segments supported the Mahayuti, voting in the Malegaon assembly changed the picture and the seat went to MVA. In view of such aspects, the results are awaited eagerly.
As the term of the present Maharashtra assembly ends on 26 November, the political calculations to capture power will have to be finalised within just 48 hours once the results are out. This has heightened the suspense about the outcome of the election since the richest state of India will play a crucial role in shaping the national political future. A mandate in Maharashtra will strengthen the prospects of both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state saw a brief spell of President’s Rule in 2019 as none of the claimants was ready to form a government within the deadline. Making preparations to avert any such eventuality, Mahayuti and MVA planners have booked dozens of rooms in five star hotels in Mumbai for the possible winners. Moreover, chartered planes and helicopters have also been booked in readiness to ensure the availability of the future MLAs. Another precaution is to keep them under watch so that sides are not changed at the eleventh hour. But the Lok Sabha results changed the picture as MVA won 30 out of the 48 seats. The exit polls for the assembly election have predicted a keen race, making it imperative for both sides to count on each vote. Therefore, the 48 hours after the results will become the game changer.
Alliance politics, an eternal feature of the Tamil Nadu political scene, has turned sharper with the advent of actor Vijay on the electoral stage. All the parties save the ruling DMK are running helter-skelter in their bid to stitch up an alliance before the 2026 Assembly polls. DMK is content to wait out the drama with parties rejecting each other as potential allies since this helps the ruling party to stay ahead in poll percentages. The arithmetic is simple. If the votes split three ways as they did in the Lok Sabha polls, the DMK stands to gain the most, or sweep everything as it did with 39 of 39 seats. If the votes are going to split four ways after Vijay’s entry, the DMK will be laughing all the way to Raj Bhavan for the swearing-in ceremony. The AIADMK, a shrewd player of alliance politics in the time of J Jayalalithaa, has not only split on her demise but also stands isolated in the alliance race. They don’t want to join the BJP again after the stinging 2021 experiment. Vijay does not want to join the AIADMK though the party would very much want the youthful politico on his side. The BJP is keeping the door open for AIADMK provided those shunted out are part of a united package. The DMK is only keen to keep VCK and its current allies on board. The more divided the opposition is, the better for MK Stalin and family.
In the wake of escalating face-off between the Chennai-based Tractors and Farm Equipment (TAFE) and its American partner AGCO over the ownership rights of Massey Ferguson in India, a two-member bench of the Madras High Court has stepped in to direct the warring parties to “maintain status quo until the original applications are heard and disposed of by the learned single judge. “For avoidance of doubt, we hasten to add that the observations made herein are tentative and solely intended for the purpose of disposing of these appeals. We have not delved much into the various rival submissions. All rights and contentions are kept open,” the two-member bench said in its order on Monday. The relationship between TAFE, an Amalgamation group company, and AGCO Corporation of the U.S. hit a nasty bump in April last when the AGCO management terminated commercial agreements -– including the one on licensing the Massey Ferguson brand — with TAFE. The Chennai firm quickly got a stay on this from a commercial court. When AGCO subsequently confirmed the termination, TAFE filed a contempt petition in the Chennai commercial court. Separately, TAFE also moved the Madras High Court, asserting its ownership right to Massey Ferguson brand. TAFE had got a favourable interim order from the Madras High Court. TAFE had filed a civil suit before the Madras High Court against Massey Ferguson Corporation, a subsidiary of AGCO, claiming that the said trademarks are distinctive of TAFE in India and exclusively owned by it. It had sought the Madras High Court to declare that TAFE owns the Massey Ferguson brand/trademarks in India. With the HC bench asking both parties to maintain status quo, all eyes are on the upcoming proceeding before the single judge. It is “advantage TAFE” at the moment, however.
With only 12 days remaining for the BCCI Secretary Jay Shah to take charge as independent chairman of the International Cricket Council (ICC), clarity has not emerged as to who would perform the duties of the Secretary from December 1, 2024. First and foremost, election has not been called for the post, and this could be because the BCCI Constitution has adequate provisions for its Joint Secretary to perform the Secretary’s duties. The BCCI Constitution says: “The President shall, in the event of a vacancy or indisposition of an office bearer, delegate the functions to another office-bearer until the vacancy is duly filled up, or the indisposition ceases.” In this case the BCCI President Roger Binny has the right to assign duties to any other office-bearer. Shah who has been the Secretary from 2019 may be allowed a grace period to hand over the work to someone else. Next week is going to be hectic for the ICC to take a call on the format and venues of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 (Feb-Mar) because the BCCI has conveyed to the ICC that India will not travel to Pakistan. The BCCI, nay Jay Shah, would like to see a finality to the Champions Trophy issue, in particular where India will play before he takes charge of the ICC. If the Champions Trophy has to take place, the Pakistan Cricket Board has to accept a hybrid model with one group (with India in it) playing league matches, most likely in Dubai and keeping the venue of the semi-finals and final, open. The PCB may not be in a position to lose the hosting rights and thereby with it a fee of around $ 70 million!
The ‘Satta Bazaar’ is betting down (dampened market sentiments) over Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) forming Maharashtra’s next government. A market player says, “Punters have never been wrong before. Dampened stock market spirits indicate the Mahayuti Alliance is unlikely to win notwithstanding sops galore unleashed by CM Eknath Shinde.” Differing with market pundits, BJP says, “Markets crashed after Foreign Portfolio Investors withdrew Rs 1.25 lakh crore in October (out of total Rs 71 lakh crore total stock investments in India) seeking better pastures after China announced stimulus. FPIs sold Rs 8700 crore stocks in April, Rs 25,600 crore in May then bought Rs 26,600 crore worth in June, Rs 32, 400 crore in July, Rs 7300 crore in August and Rs 57,700 crore in September before the big sell off in October. Already overleveraged NSE slumped, the subdued corporate sector quarterly results after much hype triggered a profit-booking mindset among investors.” Donald Trump’s ascendancy as the next U.S. president (previous tenure witnessed negative bias towards precious metals) bodes badly setting price corrections of gold and silver even as the U.S. dollar firms up, adding to Indian stock market woes. The BJP leader adds, “Maharashtra contributes around 14% to India’s GDP but even when MVA ruled for 2.5 years Modi-nomics ensured high buoyancy on Indian bourses despite stalling of bullet train project, Rs 14,000 crore cost escalation of Metro project.” The market punter, however, cites India’s financial capital Mumbai in Maharashtra that ensures most Indian business gravitates around the state while explaining the gloomy market mood over MVA’s likely win. November 23 will reveal the truth when the political bets are finally called out.
In a massive setback to AAP, Delhi’s transport minister and Jat leader Kailash Gahlot resigned from the party, citing “grave challenges” and “awkward” controversies in a letter to AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal months ahead of Delhi Assembly polls. He has joined the BJP. Gahlot’s exit is well timed in the sense that it comes days before Maharashtra goes to polls. AAP, an INDIA Bloc partner that has no stake in the state polls. But it must be said Gahlot’s exit was something that was in the works for some time now. It is believed that the seeds of discord between Gahlot and the AAP leadership were sown on August 15 over unfurling the national flag during the Delhi Govt’s I-Day celebrations. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, who was in jail on charges linked to the alleged liquor policy scam, had wanted Education Minister Atishi to unfurl the flag. Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena however felt Gahlot was more suitable for the job as he held the Home Department. Meanwhile, Kejriwal indicated that Gahlot had quit as he was under pressure from the ED and IT. In his resignation letter, Gahlot pointed to how “Political ambitions have overtaken our commitment towards people, leaving many promises unfulfilled”. In an apparent swipe at Kejriwal, he referred to “many embarrassing and awkward controversies like the “Sheeshmahal” — a term used by the BJP to refer to the CM’s residence renovated during Kejriwal’s term costing the exchequer Rs 45 crore.
A major controversy has erupted in Tollywood as over 233 directors from films, TV and independent media have filed a defamation suit against Swarup Biswas, president of the Federation of Cine Technicians and Workers of Eastern India. The Rs 23-crore lawsuit follows Biswas’s contentious remarks alleging rampant sexual harassment in the film industry, with 60% of complaints purportedly against directors and producer-directors. The hearing will take place on January 10. Swarup, the younger brother of Aroop Biswas, Bengal’s Power and Housing Minister and a close aide of chief minister Mamata Banerjee, finds himself at the centre of an unprecedented protest by Tollywood’s creative community. This is, perhaps, the first time that Tollywood has publicly challenged the Federation. Directors and producers have also criticized what they call “red-tapism” and “arbitrary demands” imposed by the Federation, including its control over unit sizes, pay scales, working hours, and technician selection. At the Eastern India Motion Picture Association’s (EIMPA) recent AGM, Swarup Biswas proposed that producers deposit Rs 5 lakh each as security to ensure timely technician payments, citing Rs 50 lakh in pending dues. Producers have outright rejected the demand, questioning the Federation’s accountability and EIMPA’s silence on the matter. Veteran actor-director Aparna Sen has publicly questioned Swarup Biswas’s credentials, asking for proof of his contributions to the industry. Biswas holds an assistant director’s card, which is reportedly issued only to those involved in at least two films. Actor-politician Roopa Ganguly also criticized the Federation, accusing it of politicizing the industry and questioning why filmmakers often seek the CM’s intervention during crises.
If rising onion prices decided the election outcome in many states some decades ago, falling soybean prices could impact the outcome in around 70 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, representing two ends of the political spectrum, are found promising farmers of much higher rates, but only after they are elected on 20 November. The sensitive constituencies are spread in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, where cotton and soybean are the main cash crops. The current market rate of Rs 4000 per quintal is unacceptable to the growers though they have no choice but to sell the produce as it can’t be stored for long. The MSP is Rs 4800 but not enough stocks are lifted by the machinery. The ruling saffron alliance has been promising better tariffs. The government hiked the soybean import duty in a bid to jack up the prices but the hike was of only around Rs 400, still leaving a gap of the same amount. Sensing the distress and the government’s inability to make any major announcement, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised Rs 6000 per quintal of the legume. To go a step further, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has pledged to pay Rs 7000. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also joined the chorus. The two regions had by and large supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha election. Hence, Mahayuti leaders are wary of saying anything that can dampen their prospects.
Are the re-runs slowly becoming a revenue model both for producers and exhibitors who have been grappling to bring back the audiences to cinema halls? Diwali turned out to be decent but then again we are gone back to re-release of films. Shah Rukh Khan’s Veer Zara re-release has been appreciated. Rakesh Roshan plans a re-release of Karan Arjun with a huge number of screens after 30 years of its release. This again has Shah Rukh Khan and Salman Khan coming together for the first time on screen. SRK’s Kal Ho Naa Ho and Pardes too are re-releasing in cinemas. Those in the trade feel that re-release of Tumbbad, Rehna Hai Tere Dil Mein and Laila Majnu have given courage to producers to cash on re-runs. The re-runs have stirred both excitement and curiosity. Traditionally, re-releases were reserved for timeless classics, but now more recent films are being revived, prompting questions: Is this trend purely nostalgic, or is there a deeper strategy at play? According to Trade Analyst Saurabh Varma, the re-release phenomenon is benefiting the cinema industry in multiple ways. For producers, re-releasing films is a cost-effective option. The marketing and distribution expenses are far lower than for new releases. Re-releases tap into the large fan bases of iconic films, giving long-time fans a chance to relive their favourite stories on the big screen. Furthermore, these revivals provide a unique opportunity for younger viewers who may have missed these films during their initial release. The combination of nostalgia and iconic music resonates deeply with audiences.
As an ambitious Saurabh Netravalkar, who did the star turn (2 for 18 in four overs) for the USA against Pakistan in the ICC Men’s World Twenty20 in Dallas, did the hard yards in the maidans located in Suketu Mehta’s Maximum City; until a point in time in his fledgling career that did not take off! Subsequently, the left-arm fast bowler found his moorings with an Ivy League label at Cornell in New York in the USA. As a tyro, he had big scalps like KL Rahul, Mayank Agarwal, and Parthiv Patel in India’s domestic cricket. He played for India under-19 in the ICC World Cup, but the temptation to be part of the Ivy League was too overwhelming. As luck would have it, the game of cricket, which the Americans would wonder what it is all about, has put him on centre stage some 10 years after relocating to the USA. The speedster played his part in the World Twenty20 qualifier in Bulawayo in July 2022, but the USA did not advance to the main event in Australia. Two years later, USA was a co-host, and with it came the automatic entry for the main show. He has now taken 102 wickets for the USA in ODI (73) and Twenty20 (29) internationals – the first USA cricketer to go past the 100-wicket mark — and walked into serendipity. After a lovely spell against Pakistan, comes the intriguing test against India’s Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli on June 12.
On hindsight it may seem it was perhaps only well that BJD supremo Naveen Patnaik did not encourage his senior party MP Bhartruhari Mahtab from Cuttack who was well versed with Lok Sabha proceedings to become Deputy Speaker of the 17th Lok Sabha. The buzz now is the Odisha MP who switched to the BJP and is a 7-term MP could be the BJP’s choice for the post of Lok Sabha Speaker. Mahtab, son of former Odisha chief minister Hare Krushna Mahtab, has the experience, temperament and intellectual gravitas needed for the job. Mahtabh, who is among the 19 BJP MPs who won, had defeated corporate honcho Santrupt Misra, who had declared assets worth Rs 450 crore. Asked to comment on his electoral battle, Mahtab likened it to the electoral battle fought between late BJP leader Ananth Kumar and Infosys founder Nandan Nilekani in 2014 in Bangalore South (Lok Sabha) seat. “Corporate people come with different ideas,” he pointed out. His victory against huge money was a clear indication of the Modi wave in Odisha. But then Nilekani, the techie who gave us Aadhar, had lost the polls in 2014 also because of the first Modi wave that year.
This one is a giant project. It is not just in terms of the capital cost. From the angle of its coverage too it is a mega one. Perhaps it is the first of the gargantuan size projects undertaken at one stretch in India. The Chennai Metro Rail is currently implementing a over Rs 63,000-crore phase II project to lay 116.1 km rail line with 119 stations in one stretch. Once fully functional, this will see the Chennai landscape change for the better and look completely different. Developing public transport of this kind — with underground and overground stations -– poses challenges of assorted kinds ranging from technical to environmental and logistics. Yet, the biggest challenge lies in making it an earning proposition for the Chennai Metro Rail, a joint venture between the Centre and the Tamil Nadu Government. Not surprisingly, Chennai Metro has hit upon an innovative way to explore non-fare revenue. It has joined hands with the Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation to float a joint venture. This JV will develop commercial properties around metro rail stations, on the lines of those done in some cities around the globe. If there is a will, there is a way. Well, Chennai Metro Rail appears to be on the right track!
There is so much anger in Karnataka BJP over party candidate Lallu Singh for losing the Faizabad Lok Sabha seat under which falls Ayodhya; the seat has been won by Samajwadi Party which fielded a Dalit candidate mocking the Ram Mandir movement. BJP workers from the southern state have been trying to reach Lallu and attempted to give him an earful. He was a two-term MP and had remained inaccessible to his constituency. If one listens to the viral video (https://youtu.be/MOdV377sA3k?si=hiVLX020RMIa4MqM), one will get the sense of how arrogant a BJP leader can be when he is speaking to his own party workers. The workers launch a blistering attack on him for losing Ayodhya. “You should not have contested. After all Yogiji opposed you as a candidate, “Lallu can be heard defending his rout by saying — he wasn’t the only one to lose. Why did Kalyan Singh’s son Rajveer — who contested from Etah lose?” he asks. He is also heard asking the southern party workers about who was Yogi to cancel his ticket. Sources close to Yogi conceded that the UP CM had no role in picking candidates. In fact he had even stayed away from campaigning for most of the candidates As a result some of Shah’s loyalists like Smriti Irani had to bite dust. Ever since the CM was objecting to renomination of most sitting MPs, the BJP fellas were all getting around Yogi’s nod endorsed by home minister Amit Shah. BJP sources said the elephant in the room was subtle competition between Shah and Yogi. In fact at the NDA meeting on June 7, PM Modi sent out a loud message of endorsement of Yogi’s leadership by warmly patting his back at the Central Hall of Parliament.
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) president Raj Thackeray’s total silence about the NDA’s rout in the state in Lok Sabha elections was found to be intriguing by those who know him well. The mystery has deepened owing to his decision to withdraw his party’s candidate from the Konkan Graduate Constituency election for one vacancy in the state legislative council. The decision to withdraw Raj’s ardent follower Abhijit Panse, who had entered the fray last week. His candidature had perplexed the NDA partners since it was a unilateral decision. More so because the seat has been with BJP’s Niranjan Davkhare, who is seeking re-election. MNS leader Nitin Sardesai announced that his party decided to withdraw Panse at the express request made by Maharashtra’s deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis to Raj. Some strain had been created due to Panse’s decision to contest and the stoic silence maintained by Raj had only heightened the suspense. All said and done, the withdrawal by Panse has come as a great relief for the BJP, which is still recovering from the LS drubbing. Had there been a triangular fight, the risk of the INDIA candidate benefiting at the cost of the BJP would have loomed large. Fadanvis and Raj have saved the situation but have posed more questions.
With a win of 29 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, party supremo and chief minister Mamata Banerjee has once again proved that she is a very tough opponent to crack. Beleaguered by the Sandeshkhali controversy, Teachers Recruitment scam, arrest of senior TMC ministers and leaders put Didi on the backfoot. But, her astuteness came to the fore in choosing candidates to stop what seemed a BJP’s juggernaut. She not only chose surprise faces such as former cricketers Kirti Azad and Yusuf Pathan, actress Rachana Banerjee, she even put forward her trusted lieutenants and cabinet ministers such as Partha Bhowmick, Biplab Mitra to contest the seats. Her decision to increase the expenditure for the Lakshmir Bhandar initiative touched the women voters across the state. Sources say that Didi is scheduled to meet her newly elected MPs on June 8 and one could expect a major ‘shuffle’ in the organisation based on the results of the Lok Sabha polls — where the party failed and where the margin dropped. Not only in the party but also at the panchayat and municipal levels, there may be several reshuffles. Sources also said, the evaluation work is going on at all three levels of the Panchayat by the poll strategy body IPAC. Close-aide of Didi have confirmed that the meeting has made it categorical to her nephew Abhishek Banerjee that the party should start preparing for the 2026 assembly polls. Interestingly, 2024 marks Mamata’s 40 years in politics, this covers her journey as a mercurial leader to a Mamata Magic, from unseating CPI(M)’s veteran, late Somnath Chatterjee to joining and leaving hastily both Manmohan Singh and Vajpayee governments to routing CPI(M) citadel in 2011 after 34 years of rule.
Feeling confident of electoral victories hereafter, prominent partners in the INDIA bloc in Maharashtra have started staking their claims in different ways. For instance, state Congress president Nana Patole has been projected as a future chief minister by some of his supporters. Since the Congress party has won the largest number of seats in the state for INDIA, Patole has described it as ‘elder brother’ in the state polity. Reminding the others that the Congress is a national party, he has remarked that the younger brothers should behave accordingly. The small groups which stayed with his party have now grown into political parties, Patole retorted. However, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut has not taken lightly to the statement. “There is no elder or younger brother in the state. The Congress has had its symbol and the organisation, whereas we have developed our party by taking various challenges head on and facing many difficulties,” Raut growled. He was referring to the split in the Sena a couple of years ago. The elder position or otherwise will be determined by the number of seats won by respective parties, Raut said, obviously indicating at the seat sharing formula for the coming legislative assembly election later this year. With speculation galore about potential defections across the state’s political spectrum, the tussle even before the match is announced promises to be more and more interesting.
TRENDS & VIEWS
Editor’s Note: Big Punch In Small Pack
It is the Third Anniversary of Short Post and as a news media startup launched during the Covid-19 pandemic it certainly feels better than good to find ourselves where we are today. Here, I must cite the unstinted support of our seasoned contributors, all senior editors in the country, who brought a great degree of maturity and sagacity to the Short Post newsroom. But for them, our tagline “Authentic Gossip”, an Oxymoron, would not have matured viably. Our user numbers may be small but our stories have created the desired impact among people who matter — decision makers and influencers. We offer a big punch in a small pack and Short Post with its 225-word stories has been punching above its weight category. Having posted close to 3,000 stories in the last 36 months, Short Post, I feel, is an idea whose time has come.
And this is vindicated by our two marquee advertisers – IDFC FIRST Bank and ICICI Lombard. Both believed in our story and have supported us from Day one. A big thank you to both.
If you look at the media landscape – print, TV and digital — it is a mixed bag. There are job losses as some outfits have closed down while a lucky few were bailed out by large corporate houses. Yes, there is a lot of action in the digital space. However, the entry of corporate houses has raised the question of independence of news media outfits. Sadly, there are just a handful of independent media outfits in the country that are highly respected for their neutrality. At Short Post, our credo is not to take sides, prejudge issues or be biased but, informing readers of behind-the-scenes happenings. In essence, Short Post strives to be a neutral editorial platform — neither anti-establishment nor pro-establishment.
As I said last year, disruptions in the media world are moving at a fast and furious pace. Technology is playing a very big role in how content is generated and consumed. But, we are neither alarmed nor perturbed as it is all a part of the evolution process. What gives us comfort is that AI is unable to create original gossipy content. And that is the news arena where we have achieved a distinction.