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Increased voting by women and a comparatively lower turnout of the Muslims for the Maharashtra assembly elections are likely to be the two major factors which can tilt the outcome of the crucial battle that will conclude on Saturday evening. These two trends have been commented upon repeatedly by several analysts while making a comparison with the Lok Sabha election’s voting pattern. As the turnout for this election has been the highest at more than 66% over the past three decades, both sides are claiming that it will benefit their candidates. For instance, deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has suggested that the Laadki Bahin Yojana was one reason for the handsome response of women, who would support the Mahayuti nominees. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) failed to gauge the potency of the scheme whereby eligible women receive Rs 1500 per month from the state. Both sides have promised to enhance the provision after watching the unprecedented welcome it has received. Similarly, the lack of enthusiasm of Muslim voters as compared with the Lok Sabha voting complexion has emerged as another important factor for the final outcome. At least a dozen Lok Sabha seats went to MVA owing to en bloc minority voting. In Dhule, while the other five assembly segments supported the Mahayuti, voting in the Malegaon assembly changed the picture and the seat went to MVA. In view of such aspects, the results are awaited eagerly.
As the term of the present Maharashtra assembly ends on 26 November, the political calculations to capture power will have to be finalised within just 48 hours once the results are out. This has heightened the suspense about the outcome of the election since the richest state of India will play a crucial role in shaping the national political future. A mandate in Maharashtra will strengthen the prospects of both the ruling Mahayuti and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The state saw a brief spell of President’s Rule in 2019 as none of the claimants was ready to form a government within the deadline. Making preparations to avert any such eventuality, Mahayuti and MVA planners have booked dozens of rooms in five star hotels in Mumbai for the possible winners. Moreover, chartered planes and helicopters have also been booked in readiness to ensure the availability of the future MLAs. Another precaution is to keep them under watch so that sides are not changed at the eleventh hour. But the Lok Sabha results changed the picture as MVA won 30 out of the 48 seats. The exit polls for the assembly election have predicted a keen race, making it imperative for both sides to count on each vote. Therefore, the 48 hours after the results will become the game changer.
Alliance politics, an eternal feature of the Tamil Nadu political scene, has turned sharper with the advent of actor Vijay on the electoral stage. All the parties save the ruling DMK are running helter-skelter in their bid to stitch up an alliance before the 2026 Assembly polls. DMK is content to wait out the drama with parties rejecting each other as potential allies since this helps the ruling party to stay ahead in poll percentages. The arithmetic is simple. If the votes split three ways as they did in the Lok Sabha polls, the DMK stands to gain the most, or sweep everything as it did with 39 of 39 seats. If the votes are going to split four ways after Vijay’s entry, the DMK will be laughing all the way to Raj Bhavan for the swearing-in ceremony. The AIADMK, a shrewd player of alliance politics in the time of J Jayalalithaa, has not only split on her demise but also stands isolated in the alliance race. They don’t want to join the BJP again after the stinging 2021 experiment. Vijay does not want to join the AIADMK though the party would very much want the youthful politico on his side. The BJP is keeping the door open for AIADMK provided those shunted out are part of a united package. The DMK is only keen to keep VCK and its current allies on board. The more divided the opposition is, the better for MK Stalin and family.
In the wake of escalating face-off between the Chennai-based Tractors and Farm Equipment (TAFE) and its American partner AGCO over the ownership rights of Massey Ferguson in India, a two-member bench of the Madras High Court has stepped in to direct the warring parties to “maintain status quo until the original applications are heard and disposed of by the learned single judge. “For avoidance of doubt, we hasten to add that the observations made herein are tentative and solely intended for the purpose of disposing of these appeals. We have not delved much into the various rival submissions. All rights and contentions are kept open,” the two-member bench said in its order on Monday. The relationship between TAFE, an Amalgamation group company, and AGCO Corporation of the U.S. hit a nasty bump in April last when the AGCO management terminated commercial agreements -– including the one on licensing the Massey Ferguson brand — with TAFE. The Chennai firm quickly got a stay on this from a commercial court. When AGCO subsequently confirmed the termination, TAFE filed a contempt petition in the Chennai commercial court. Separately, TAFE also moved the Madras High Court, asserting its ownership right to Massey Ferguson brand. TAFE had got a favourable interim order from the Madras High Court. TAFE had filed a civil suit before the Madras High Court against Massey Ferguson Corporation, a subsidiary of AGCO, claiming that the said trademarks are distinctive of TAFE in India and exclusively owned by it. It had sought the Madras High Court to declare that TAFE owns the Massey Ferguson brand/trademarks in India. With the HC bench asking both parties to maintain status quo, all eyes are on the upcoming proceeding before the single judge. It is “advantage TAFE” at the moment, however.
With only 12 days remaining for the BCCI Secretary Jay Shah to take charge as independent chairman of the International Cricket Council (ICC), clarity has not emerged as to who would perform the duties of the Secretary from December 1, 2024. First and foremost, election has not been called for the post, and this could be because the BCCI Constitution has adequate provisions for its Joint Secretary to perform the Secretary’s duties. The BCCI Constitution says: “The President shall, in the event of a vacancy or indisposition of an office bearer, delegate the functions to another office-bearer until the vacancy is duly filled up, or the indisposition ceases.” In this case the BCCI President Roger Binny has the right to assign duties to any other office-bearer. Shah who has been the Secretary from 2019 may be allowed a grace period to hand over the work to someone else. Next week is going to be hectic for the ICC to take a call on the format and venues of the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 (Feb-Mar) because the BCCI has conveyed to the ICC that India will not travel to Pakistan. The BCCI, nay Jay Shah, would like to see a finality to the Champions Trophy issue, in particular where India will play before he takes charge of the ICC. If the Champions Trophy has to take place, the Pakistan Cricket Board has to accept a hybrid model with one group (with India in it) playing league matches, most likely in Dubai and keeping the venue of the semi-finals and final, open. The PCB may not be in a position to lose the hosting rights and thereby with it a fee of around $ 70 million!
The ‘Satta Bazaar’ is betting down (dampened market sentiments) over Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) forming Maharashtra’s next government. A market player says, “Punters have never been wrong before. Dampened stock market spirits indicate the Mahayuti Alliance is unlikely to win notwithstanding sops galore unleashed by CM Eknath Shinde.” Differing with market pundits, BJP says, “Markets crashed after Foreign Portfolio Investors withdrew Rs 1.25 lakh crore in October (out of total Rs 71 lakh crore total stock investments in India) seeking better pastures after China announced stimulus. FPIs sold Rs 8700 crore stocks in April, Rs 25,600 crore in May then bought Rs 26,600 crore worth in June, Rs 32, 400 crore in July, Rs 7300 crore in August and Rs 57,700 crore in September before the big sell off in October. Already overleveraged NSE slumped, the subdued corporate sector quarterly results after much hype triggered a profit-booking mindset among investors.” Donald Trump’s ascendancy as the next U.S. president (previous tenure witnessed negative bias towards precious metals) bodes badly setting price corrections of gold and silver even as the U.S. dollar firms up, adding to Indian stock market woes. The BJP leader adds, “Maharashtra contributes around 14% to India’s GDP but even when MVA ruled for 2.5 years Modi-nomics ensured high buoyancy on Indian bourses despite stalling of bullet train project, Rs 14,000 crore cost escalation of Metro project.” The market punter, however, cites India’s financial capital Mumbai in Maharashtra that ensures most Indian business gravitates around the state while explaining the gloomy market mood over MVA’s likely win. November 23 will reveal the truth when the political bets are finally called out.
In a massive setback to AAP, Delhi’s transport minister and Jat leader Kailash Gahlot resigned from the party, citing “grave challenges” and “awkward” controversies in a letter to AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal months ahead of Delhi Assembly polls. He has joined the BJP. Gahlot’s exit is well timed in the sense that it comes days before Maharashtra goes to polls. AAP, an INDIA Bloc partner that has no stake in the state polls. But it must be said Gahlot’s exit was something that was in the works for some time now. It is believed that the seeds of discord between Gahlot and the AAP leadership were sown on August 15 over unfurling the national flag during the Delhi Govt’s I-Day celebrations. Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal, who was in jail on charges linked to the alleged liquor policy scam, had wanted Education Minister Atishi to unfurl the flag. Delhi Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena however felt Gahlot was more suitable for the job as he held the Home Department. Meanwhile, Kejriwal indicated that Gahlot had quit as he was under pressure from the ED and IT. In his resignation letter, Gahlot pointed to how “Political ambitions have overtaken our commitment towards people, leaving many promises unfulfilled”. In an apparent swipe at Kejriwal, he referred to “many embarrassing and awkward controversies like the “Sheeshmahal” — a term used by the BJP to refer to the CM’s residence renovated during Kejriwal’s term costing the exchequer Rs 45 crore.
A major controversy has erupted in Tollywood as over 233 directors from films, TV and independent media have filed a defamation suit against Swarup Biswas, president of the Federation of Cine Technicians and Workers of Eastern India. The Rs 23-crore lawsuit follows Biswas’s contentious remarks alleging rampant sexual harassment in the film industry, with 60% of complaints purportedly against directors and producer-directors. The hearing will take place on January 10. Swarup, the younger brother of Aroop Biswas, Bengal’s Power and Housing Minister and a close aide of chief minister Mamata Banerjee, finds himself at the centre of an unprecedented protest by Tollywood’s creative community. This is, perhaps, the first time that Tollywood has publicly challenged the Federation. Directors and producers have also criticized what they call “red-tapism” and “arbitrary demands” imposed by the Federation, including its control over unit sizes, pay scales, working hours, and technician selection. At the Eastern India Motion Picture Association’s (EIMPA) recent AGM, Swarup Biswas proposed that producers deposit Rs 5 lakh each as security to ensure timely technician payments, citing Rs 50 lakh in pending dues. Producers have outright rejected the demand, questioning the Federation’s accountability and EIMPA’s silence on the matter. Veteran actor-director Aparna Sen has publicly questioned Swarup Biswas’s credentials, asking for proof of his contributions to the industry. Biswas holds an assistant director’s card, which is reportedly issued only to those involved in at least two films. Actor-politician Roopa Ganguly also criticized the Federation, accusing it of politicizing the industry and questioning why filmmakers often seek the CM’s intervention during crises.
If rising onion prices decided the election outcome in many states some decades ago, falling soybean prices could impact the outcome in around 70 assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. Hence, Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge, representing two ends of the political spectrum, are found promising farmers of much higher rates, but only after they are elected on 20 November. The sensitive constituencies are spread in Marathwada and Vidarbha regions, where cotton and soybean are the main cash crops. The current market rate of Rs 4000 per quintal is unacceptable to the growers though they have no choice but to sell the produce as it can’t be stored for long. The MSP is Rs 4800 but not enough stocks are lifted by the machinery. The ruling saffron alliance has been promising better tariffs. The government hiked the soybean import duty in a bid to jack up the prices but the hike was of only around Rs 400, still leaving a gap of the same amount. Sensing the distress and the government’s inability to make any major announcement, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has promised Rs 6000 per quintal of the legume. To go a step further, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge has pledged to pay Rs 7000. Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has also joined the chorus. The two regions had by and large supported the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi during the Lok Sabha election. Hence, Mahayuti leaders are wary of saying anything that can dampen their prospects.
Are the re-runs slowly becoming a revenue model both for producers and exhibitors who have been grappling to bring back the audiences to cinema halls? Diwali turned out to be decent but then again we are gone back to re-release of films. Shah Rukh Khan’s Veer Zara re-release has been appreciated. Rakesh Roshan plans a re-release of Karan Arjun with a huge number of screens after 30 years of its release. This again has Shah Rukh Khan and Salman Khan coming together for the first time on screen. SRK’s Kal Ho Naa Ho and Pardes too are re-releasing in cinemas. Those in the trade feel that re-release of Tumbbad, Rehna Hai Tere Dil Mein and Laila Majnu have given courage to producers to cash on re-runs. The re-runs have stirred both excitement and curiosity. Traditionally, re-releases were reserved for timeless classics, but now more recent films are being revived, prompting questions: Is this trend purely nostalgic, or is there a deeper strategy at play? According to Trade Analyst Saurabh Varma, the re-release phenomenon is benefiting the cinema industry in multiple ways. For producers, re-releasing films is a cost-effective option. The marketing and distribution expenses are far lower than for new releases. Re-releases tap into the large fan bases of iconic films, giving long-time fans a chance to relive their favourite stories on the big screen. Furthermore, these revivals provide a unique opportunity for younger viewers who may have missed these films during their initial release. The combination of nostalgia and iconic music resonates deeply with audiences.
Is Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee planning to hand over the reins to her nephew Abhishek Banerjee? All indications point in that directions. Witness this, Abhishek, the party’s second-in-command and national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee has unveiled a new campaign “Trinamooler Nabojowar” (Uprise of New Trinamool). Spanning over two months, the campaign has two parts — first a Jono Sanjog Yatra (mass outreach march) where he will be addressing over 250 public meetings, and the second being Gram Banglar Motamot (opinion of rural Bengal). Interestingly, Abhishek will hold meetings with 3,000 party functionaries of the district, panchayat and booth levels and also with the people of local influence in the view of selecting 73000 candidates for the three-tier panchayat election through a secret ballot. Political analysts say that with Didi announcing the outreach drive it clearly hints at projecting her nephew as a mass leader ahead of the panchayat and the national polls next year. Moreover, analysts are also equating the new programme with that of Didi ke Bolo (Tell to Didi) campaign, designed by erstwhile political consultant Prasant Kishore, which resulted in thumping mandate during State Assembly election 2021. The march begins from North Bengal where TMC is still struggling for a strong foothold.
Edappadi Palaniswami getting the nod from Election Commission might prove embarrassing for the Tamil Nadu BJP chief K Annamalai. The Supreme Court had nudged ECI to take the call within 10 days and the EC came up with the permissions needed for EPS to be recognized as the general Secretary of AIADMK and while also granting his faction the right to use the ‘Two Leaves’ symbol. Word on the ground as a tiff was developing between EPS and Annamalai was that the BJP was not happy about a Gounder (caste) taking on a Gounder, which is why it appeared there was a chance that the party might press for O Panneerselvam’s faction so the party could bring the dominant caste Thevars to support them. All that proved to be just speculation, which was fuelled some more by the Prime Minister not meeting EPS or OPS on his Chennai visit. Meanwhile, Annamalai, who is busy taking up corruption issues against the top DMK leaders, played an audio tape reportedly containing finance minister P Thiaga Rajan’s (PTR) alleged admission that the CM’s son Udhayanidhi and son-in-law Sabareesh were collecting Rs 10 to Rs 20 crore a day and that they may have amassed Rs 30,000 crore so far. Indeed, these are interesting times in Tamil Nadu where alone the central agencies like ED and CBI are not seen to be that busy.
The political uncertainty playing out in Maharashtra has led to the emergence of Sanjay Raut as a unique polarising factor in Maharashtra politics. Be it during the split of the Shiv Sena, when Eknath Shinde legislators blamed him for the split or now during the almost-split of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). Raut’s claim in his political column about Sharad Pawar admission of factions within his party set to join the BJP, had clearly rankled Ajit Pawar, who saw it as Raut’s meddling in his party’s affairs. Earlier, Raut had similarly rankled the Bharatiya Janata party Party (BJP), which blamed him particularly his editorials in Saamna for creating rifts in the SS- BJP’s alliance. Raut has clearly emerged as a unique player in Maharashtra politics way beyond his position as editor of the Shiv Sena (UBT) mouthpiece Saamna or even as his party’s spokesperson. He is now the most vociferous proponent of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) –Maharashtra’s experiment of an anti-BJP front. Though Sharad Pawar is the architect of the MVA, it was Raut, who has successfully advocated it before the media and the people. Enforcement agencies and even 100 days in jail have failed to tame his sharp-tongue. As political uncertainty lingers on over the forthcoming Supreme Court verdict on the fate of the Eknath Shinde’s legislators and his government, Raut’s role is only set to get more prominent.
Thursday (Apr 20) was a day of mixed news for the Gandhi siblings from the courts and this brought some cheer to the Congress. While Surat sessions court refused to stay his conviction in the defamation case for Rahul Gandhi, Haryana revenue officials brought some cheer by giving a clean chit to transfer of land by Robert Vadra’s Skylight Hospitality to the DLF in the Punjab and Haryana High Court. This came nearly five years after an FIR was registered against former chief minister Bhupinder Hooda and others for cheating and other offences at Gurugram. It is not clear if Vadra got the clean chit as an unintended consequence of the Khattar government’s efforts to bail out its ally — the Chauthalas. As for as the Vadra-DLF land transfer matter, the affidavit said: “It was reported by tehsildar, Manesar, Gurugram, that Skylight Hospitality sold 3.5 acres to DLF Universal Limited on September 18, 2019, and no regulation/rules have been violated in the said transaction. As per the report received from tehsildar, Wazirabad, Gurugram, it was clearly stated that the land in question has not been found in the name of DLF Universal Ltd and the land still exists in the name of HSVP/HSIIDC, Haryana”.
Netflix, the California-based OTT player, is rejigging its business strategy. To start with it has done away with its initial business of mail order DVDs. The DVD postal service was launched as an alternative to DVD rental stores. This business generates only $ 126 mn of Netlfix’s annual turnover of $ 31.6 bn. Besides, it is also aggressively cracking down on free password sharing among its subscribers. Recently it launched a new password sharing policy in the U.S. which includes paid sharing. This policy is being introduced to all its 231 mn paid subscribers across 190 countries. Also, on the anvil are more streams, like subscription only and ad driven streams. In the first quarter of 2023 Netflix added 1.75 mn new customers as against 7.66 million customers last quarter. Though the customer additions look lower, it is considered a significant turnaround as it had lost 200,000 customers in the first quarter of 2022. Netflix’s India business too is looking up with engagement growing nearly 30 % in the first quarter of 2023 vis a vis last year. This follows lowering of prices by 20% to 60 % in December 2021, leading to deepening the penetration of the market. This also led to a revenue growth of 24% in 2022 as against 19% in 2021. Netflix now plans to replicate the India model to 116 other countries.
Arjun Tendulkar has bowled the first over of the powerplay, and thereby the first over of the match itself, and the last over (40th) of an IPL match. Both tough overs when the batsmen throw their wrists to get going, especially in the first six overs when only two fielders are allowed outside the inner circle. Son of the legendary Sachin Tendulkar, Arjun has been in the news ever since the five-time winner of the league Mumbai Indians made a successful bid for him at Rs 30 lakhs at the player auction in February last. The 23 year old is a left arm seamer who has played a few matches in the BCCI’s domestic tournaments for Mumbai and Goa. He has also played two Under-19 Test matches for India. He was often seen at the MI nets before the franchise chose him for the 2021 IPL season. The inability of left arm seamer Arshad Khan to make a big impact in the first three matches may have hastened Arjun’s IPL debut against the Kolkata Knight Riders at the Wankhede. Arjun gave just five runs in the first over and when given the last (death) over against the Sunrisers Hyderabad — when he had 19 to defend — he bowled to the field and took his first IPL wicket too. In two matches Arjun has held his own!
Karnataka PCC chief D K Shivkumar’s last minute gamble to get his brother and the lone Congress Lok Sabha MP D K Suresh to file papers as his cover candidate from Kanakapura assembly seat has not gone down well with state Congress cadres. It was felt such a move could send out a message of uncertainty about the Congress. While officially the Congress explained the need for a cover candidate for Shivkumar — who was hoping to be CM — as a technical necessity. Party sources said Shivkumar had moved his brother to Kanakapura only as a back-up plan. “Having a cover candidate is necessary; he has to be there in the fray only till the time of withdrawal of nominations,” explained an AICC manager. But then why is the PCC chief suddenly preparing for the worst and worrying about rejection of his papers? Hasn’t Shivkumar been winning the Kanakapura assembly seat since 2008? Or has the entry of a senior BJP minister and prominent Vokkaliga face R Ashoka from Kanakapura queered the pitch for him? Meanwhile, Shivkumar’s attempts to consolidate the star power of Vokkaligas are showing results. He got former Lok Sabha MP and actor Divya Sapandana aka Ramya back as star campaigner. Ramya had also joined Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra in the state. Shivkumar was also hoping to get Mandya MP and actor Sumalatha Ambareesh to contest on Congress ticket. She opted out.
TRENDS & VIEWS
Editor’s Note: Big Punch In Small Pack
It is the Third Anniversary of Short Post and as a news media startup launched during the Covid-19 pandemic it certainly feels better than good to find ourselves where we are today. Here, I must cite the unstinted support of our seasoned contributors, all senior editors in the country, who brought a great degree of maturity and sagacity to the Short Post newsroom. But for them, our tagline “Authentic Gossip”, an Oxymoron, would not have matured viably. Our user numbers may be small but our stories have created the desired impact among people who matter — decision makers and influencers. We offer a big punch in a small pack and Short Post with its 225-word stories has been punching above its weight category. Having posted close to 3,000 stories in the last 36 months, Short Post, I feel, is an idea whose time has come.
And this is vindicated by our two marquee advertisers – IDFC FIRST Bank and ICICI Lombard. Both believed in our story and have supported us from Day one. A big thank you to both.
If you look at the media landscape – print, TV and digital — it is a mixed bag. There are job losses as some outfits have closed down while a lucky few were bailed out by large corporate houses. Yes, there is a lot of action in the digital space. However, the entry of corporate houses has raised the question of independence of news media outfits. Sadly, there are just a handful of independent media outfits in the country that are highly respected for their neutrality. At Short Post, our credo is not to take sides, prejudge issues or be biased but, informing readers of behind-the-scenes happenings. In essence, Short Post strives to be a neutral editorial platform — neither anti-establishment nor pro-establishment.
As I said last year, disruptions in the media world are moving at a fast and furious pace. Technology is playing a very big role in how content is generated and consumed. But, we are neither alarmed nor perturbed as it is all a part of the evolution process. What gives us comfort is that AI is unable to create original gossipy content. And that is the news arena where we have achieved a distinction.